If I had to bet every game (Games I really like in BOLD): Oklahoma +2.5 Utah +6 Louisville -2.5 Gonzaga -8.5 Xavier +10.5 West Virginia +13 North Carolina +6 Notre Dame +1.5 Cheers.

If I had to bet every game.  Bets I really like in bold: San Diego State +9 Gonzaga -6 Oregon +12 Maryland EVEN Wichita State +1.5 Oklahoma -4.5 Louisville +2.5 Cheers.

If I had to pick all 8 games today against the spread (Games I really like in bold): Arkansas +5 Butler +4 Cincinnati +16 Georgia State +6.5 NC State +9.5 Ohio State +9.5 UCLA -5.5 Utah -4 Cheers. P.S. This is pretty cool.

Originally posted on StatsbyLopez: It’s that time of year again, and while you can go to just about any media outlet for March Madness advice, I’m fairly confident you won’t get most of the stuff that I’m going to write about here. I think that’s a good thing? As preliminary thoughts, feel free to check out…

Who is going to win this thing? Kentucky. Teams not named Kentucky most likely to win Wisconsin Arizona Duke Virginia Gonzaga Villanova Best Double Digit Seeds Ohio State Texas BYU Indiana Davidson Upset watch Purdue (9) over Cincinnati Texas (11)  over Butler UCLA (11) over SMU Someone (11) over Xavier Someone (11) over Providence Ohio…

Number of correct teams predicted: 66 out of 68. Number of correctly seeded teams: 29 out of 68 Number of teams correctly seeded within one seed: 60 out of 68 Teams I had OUT that made it: Cincinnati (9) and Boise State (11) Teams I had IN that didn’t make it: Stanford and Texas A&M…

NCAA Tournament Stuff Here are my updated tournament projections with seedings.  I’ve got Kentucky (obviously), Villanova, Virginia, and Duke as my top 4. Conference Breakdown I’m pretty sure this won’t really happen, but if I was selecting the teams for the bracket, I’d take 7 teams from the Big 12 (Kansas, Iowa State, Oklahoma, West…

Lately, I’ve been chirping about how bad the RPI is.  I had some free time this morning, so I thought I’d dig into it and write down exactly why I dislike the RPI.  Below you’ll find details on how to calculate the RPI, my criticisms of the formula, and, finally, an example of how RPI…

Projected Tournament Seeds.  Who had the best week? Best Week’s Up two seeds Purdue  – On a 4 game winning streak with a win @ Indiana in the last week Iowa – On a  4 game win streak with a win over Illinois in the last week LSU – On a 3 game win streak…

While I was reading my Twitter feed, I can across this tweet: I was curious, because why would anyone ever have a statistician on a radio show (trying to put the general public to sleep?)?  So I clicked.  Beitbart radio was interviewing William Briggs because of the paper he wrote called “Why models run hot: results from…