Did the VP debate tonight change anything? Below is a plot of estimated win probabilities for the two presidential candidates during the VP debate. There was almost no change at all. For comparison, the plot below that shows the win probability changing dramatically during the presidential debate.
So do the VP debates matter? According to the markets, the answer is very much no.
Cheers.
Prediction: Bengals 25-20 (63.6%)
Pick: Dolphins +7.5
Total: Under 45
Prediction: Cardinals 23-18 (64.3%)
Pick: Rams +7.5
Total: Under 43
Prediction: Panthers 25-23 (55.5%)
Pick: Falcons +3
Total: Under 51
Prediction: Ravens 23-19 (60.5%)
Pick: Ravens -3
Total: Under 46.5
Prediction: Lions 24-23 (50.6%)
Pick: Bears +3.5
Total: Under 48
Prediction: Texans 22-17 (64.5%)
Pick: Texans -5
Total: Under 40
Prediction: Colts 23-21 (55.1%)
Pick: Jaguars +2.5
Total: Under 49.5
Prediction: Patriots 26-21 (64.8%)
Pick: Bills +7.5
Total: Over 44
Prediction: Seahawks 21-18 (64.8%)
Pick: Seahawks -1
Total: Under 39.5
Prediction: Steelers 23-21 (56.1%)
Pick: Chiefs +5
Total: Under 47.5
Prediction: Chargers 27-26 (52.6%)
Pick: Saints +4
Total: Under 54
Prediction: 49ers 22-21 (51.7%)
Pick: 49ers +2.5
Total: Under 44.5
Prediction: Broncos 24-21 (60.2%)
Pick: Broncos -3
Total: Over 43
Prediction: Washington Football Team 24-22 (56.5%)
Pick: Browns +7.5
Total: Under 47.5
Prediction: Vikings 22-20 (56.4%)
Pick: Giants +4.5
Total: Under 43
Three days after the first presidential debate, it’s fairly evident that Clinton won. And that it wasn’t even close. You can see below that Clinton has gotten a substantial boost in win probability based on the state electoral college markets on predictit.org. Clinton has also gained in the RealClearPolitics 2 and 4 way poll aggregations and her lead in the 2 way race is now at +3 and in the 4 way race is at +2.9. These leads are still a far cry from her nearly 8 point lead only a few weeks ago, but it must be a bit of a relief for Clinton who had been slipping recently over the past few weeks.
The plot below is based on the predicit.org state markets accounting for correlation of the voting patterns between states. Based on this, the mean number of electoral votes for Clinton is 298 with the most likely outcome for Clinton is getting 358 electoral votes. This is very much in line with other sites that are predicting at this moment such as Princeton Election Consortium, which has Clinton at 297 and FiveThirtyEight.com which has Clinton at 290.7.
Finally, here is a simulation of electoral vote totals if the state outcomes are assumed to be independent, which is clearly not true, but a nice simplifying assumption. 
Cheers.
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AFC East
New England: 11-5 (3-0) 10.879
NY Jets: 7-9 (1-2) 7.141
Buffalo: 7-9 (1-2) 6.832
Miami: 6-10 (1-2) 6.426
AFC North
Pittsburgh: 10-6 (2-1) 9.476
Cincinnati: 9-7 (1-2) 8.650
Baltimore: 9-7 (3-0) 8.644
Cleveland: 4-12 (0-3) 3.963
AFC South
Houston: 8-8 (2-1) 8.464
Indianapolis: 8-8 (1-2) 7.961
Tennessee: 5-11 (1-2) 4.895
Jacksonville: 3-13 (0-3) 3.496
AFC West
Denver: 12-4 (3-0) 11.63
Kansas City: 9-7 (2-1) 8.554
San Diego: 8-8 (1-2) 7.513
Oakland: 5-11 (2-1) 5.515
NFC East
Philadelphia: 9-7 (3-0) 8.673
Dallas: 8-8 (2-1) 8.224
NY Giants: 7-9 (2-1) 6.634
Washington: 5-11 (1-2) 5.150
NFC North
Green Bay: 11-5 (2-1) 10.675
Minnesota: 9-7 (3-0) 8.832
Detroit: 8-8 (1-2) 7.575
Chicago: 6-10 (0-3) 5.599
NFC South
Carolina: 11-5 (1-2) 10.451
Atlanta: 7-9 (2-1) 7.149
New Orleans: 6-10 (0-3) 6.005
Tampa Bay: 4-12 (1-2) 3.882
NFC West
Seattle: 11-5 (2-1) 11.016
Arizona: 9-7 (1-2) 8.658
Los Angeles (nee St. Louis): 6-10 (2-1) 6.367
San Francisco: 5-11 (1-2) 5.071
AFC
NFC
Note: Changes are two week changes. (I had a baby last week; didn’t get around to updating the rankings).
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Prediction: Patriots 25-20 (64.1%)
Pick: Patriots +2.5
Total: Over 41
Prediction: Cardinals 22-20 (54.0%)
Pick: Bills +4.5
Total: Under 47
Prediction: Panthers 24-19 (63.9%)
Pick: Vikings +7
Total: Under 43
Prediction: Bengals 22-21 (51.0%)
Pick: Broncos +3.5
Total: Over 42
Prediction: Packers 26-21 (62.2%)
Pick: Lions +7 PUSH
Total: Under 48
Prediction: Colts 25-23 (54.8%)
Pick: Colts -1
Total: Under 51
Prediction: Ravens 22-20 (55.9%)
Pick: Ravens -1.5
Total: Under 45.5
Prediction: Chiefs 23-20 (58.4%)
Pick: Chiefs -3
Total: Under 43
Prediction: Dolphins 24-21 (58.8%)
Pick: Browns +9.5
Total: Over 42
Prediction: Giants 24-21 (58.3%)
Pick: Washington Football Team +4.5
Total: Under 47
Prediction: Steelers 24-23 (50.1%)
Pick: Eagles +4
Total: Over 47
Prediction: Seahawks 23-16 (69.7%)
Pick: 49ers +10
Total: Under 41
Prediction: Buccaneers 21-20 (52.6%)
Pick: Rams +4
Total:Under 41.5
Prediction: Cowboys 24-21 (57.9%)
Pick: Bears +7
Total: Over 44.5
Prediction: Titans 22-21 (51.5%)
Pick: Titans +1.5
Total: Under 47
Prediction: Saints 27-25 (58.3%)
Pick: Falcons +3
Total: Under 54
You’ve probably heard of the Washington Football Team rule before. It states that:
If the Redskins win their last home game before the election, the party that won the previous election wins the next election and that if the Redskins lose, the challenging party’s candidate wins.
This has held true in 17 of the last 19 elections. However, it’s only 1 for 3 in the last three elections. Not a great track record.
So back in 2012 I looked for a better sports predictor of the presidency and I found it.
From 1948 through 2008, if:
The Republican candidate has won the election every single time. However, this method predicted that Romney would win in 2012, which did not end up happening.
So what does this say about the presidency this year?
The Phillies are currently sitting at 65 wins with only 16 left to play, the Indians are at 84 wins with 15 left to play, and the Red Sox are already at 81 wins. Check, almost surely check, and check.
The only chance the Clinton now has to win the election is to pray that Cleveland goes 13-2 or better in their remaining 15 games. This is doubly odd as Cleveland, host city of the 2016 Republican National Convention, is once again at the center of the political world.
With the new findings Trump and his team are allegedly concerned that the Clinton campaign will be fixing Cleveland Indians games from now until the end of the season in spite of the fact that no evidence of game tampering has been found since 1919. Nevertheless, Trump’s team has encouraged his supporters to attend Cleveland games and watch diligently to make sure there is no fraud happening. Further, Republican lawmakers are encouraging baseball’s commissioner, Rob Manfred, and the front office of the Cleveland Indians to institute stricter ticketing policies. These lawmakers want to prevent fans from attending games unless they have their ticket and at least two forms of government ID to present at the time of entrance to the stadium. They argue this it to prevent fans from attending both halves of a double header with only one ticket. Democratic lawmakers believe this is just a thinly veiled attempt to keep certain demographics of fans from attending games.
Cheers.
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