2:54am Central Time:

So, uh, what went wrong in that Selzer poll?

10:32pm Central Time:

Just got back from my run. What are we doing America? What the fuck are we doing? The next four years are going to be so bad. So much worse than you can even imagine. It’s just. so. stupid. Good night. I’m gonna go watch a documentary about aliens and then smash my face through a window.

9:24pm Central Time:

I still haven’t gone running. But I haven’t checked the race in a while. It looks much worse than it did before. What the fuck are we doing America? You think this guy is gonna save the economy? Jesus. Christ.

8:27pm Central Time:

I’m going running.

8:18pm Central Time:

It’s just past quarter past 8. Nothing terribly surprising has happened so far. NYT gives Trump a 66% chance to win.

7:54pm Central Time:

Is there ANY other election in the world where the person with the most votes can lose the election? Or is it only the election to pick the most powerful person in the world?

7:44pm Central Time:

The NYT gives Trump a 53% chance to win Pennsylvania. But that prediction right now is based only on pre-election polls and their “model”. Nothing to do with actual results yet. Why even report this?

7:42pm Central Time:

I still think Harris is gonna win Pennsylvania. But it’s gonna be really, really close.

7:36pm Central Time:

Sometimes I reflect on how stupid it is that a few thousand people in Pennsylvania who probably can’t find Canada on a map get to decide who the most powerful person in the world is. Everything is so stupid.

7:35pm Central Time:

Virginia looks to be much closer than it was in 2020. That’s a good sign for Trump. How wild would it be if just everyone got this race completely wrong and Trump wins a place like Virginia and Harris wins something like Iowa or Ohio?

7:27pm Central Time:

In 2023, the Census estimates that about 44000 people from Georgia moved to Florida, around 26000 Michiganders moved to Florida, and about 28000 Pennsylvanians moved to Florida. And something like 9000 people from Wisconsin moved to Florida. Again, based on nothing, I’m guessing thats a vast majority of these people were right leaning. Would it make sense then that all these states get slightly bluer and Texas and Florida get slightly redder?

7:16pm Central Time:

Crazy theory based on nothing: Enough right leaning voters moved to Texas and Florida from swing states in the last 4 years that Trump’s margin in Florida and Texas will beat his margin’s in those states relative to 2020. But all those people leaving give Harris safe wins in swing states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin (and Iowa?).

7:08pm Central Time:

New York Times has a much better data presentation than NBC News for election results. Great work NYT.

6:55pm Central Time:

Florida — already America’s inner thigh — continues to get redder and redder. And also it’s shifted further right. (“How the pandemic turned Florida red”)

6:44pm Central Time:

I’m seeing the same thing in Georgia as I saw in Indiana: Substantial shifts towards Harris in the suburbs.

For reference, Harris won Douglas County by 25.1% in 2020 and Rockdale by 40.77%. That’s about +7 and +11 with about 70% reporting. Trump in 2020 won Houston, Bartow, Oconee, and Troup by 12.42%, 50.67%, 33.47%, and 21.84%, respectively. That’s shifts of about 1, 0 , -2, and -5 for Trump. He’s about the same in counties he won last time in Georgia, but there are pretty big shifts in the Atlanta suburbs.

6:33pm Central Time:

Trump up 23-3. Kentucky, Indiana, and West Virginia for Trump; Vermont for Kamala. (Can we stop and think about how fucking weird Vermont is for a second?)

6:28pm Central Time:

Going back to Hamilton and Boone County. In 2016, Trump won Boone county by 29.12% and Hamilton by 19.32%. (Note: Boone has 91% of counties reported and Hamilton has 65%). But Trumps support in the Indianapolis suburbs has absolutely cratered since 2016.

6:18pm Central Time:

And…..they’ve called Vermont. Harris is on the board with 3 points. Trump leads 19-3.

6:16pm Central Time:

The north suburbs of Indianapolis are shifting about 8ish points towards Harris so far. That feels like a big deal to me.

• Boone County 2020: Trump by 18.38%
• Boone County 2024 (91% reporting): Trump by 10%

• Hamilton County 2020: Trump by 6.78%
• Hamilton County 2024 (65% reporting): HARRIS by 1.2%