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RIPPEN after week 8

An explanation of RIPPEN

Alex Smith’s performance on Monday night was the best performance by a quarterback in any game this season with a RIPPEN of 57.977. The next closest performance was Aaron Rodgers in week 7 with a RIPPEN of 43.235.

Smith’s incredible performance on Monday night wasn’t perfect though according to passer rating.  He only charted a 157.1, which is, of course, absolutely ridiculous.  Take a look at the list of games where the QB has ended with a perfect rating and try to tell me with a straight face that Alex Smith’s Monday night performance was worse than all of these.  For instance, in 2005 Roethlisberger finished a game 9 for 11 with 232 passing yards and 2 TD and a perfect passer rating.  How in the world can that be better than Alex Smith’s 18 for 19 performance for 232 yards and three touchdowns?  It’s because passer rating is terrible.

RIPPEN rankings for week 8 performances:

Player Team RIPPEN QB rating
Smith, A.  SF 57.977 157.1
Manning, P. DEN 32.232 138.9
Ryan, M. ATL 30.023 137.4
Brady, T. NE 26.385 131.1
Roethlisberger, B. PIT 24.045 121.0
Stafford, M. DET 23.692 101.7
Luck, A. IND 21.747 89.5
Wilson, R. SEA 19.716 96.8
Cutler, J. CHI 18.324 83.3
Freeman, J. TB 17.853 104.2
Newton, C. CAR 17.054 57.0
Ponder, C. MIN 16.026 74.8
Bradford, S. STL 16.004 88.9
Cassel, M. KC 14.130 85.1
Gabbert, B. JAX 13.057 80.6
Manning, E. NYG 12.378 58.4
Rodgers, A. GB 12.331 95.7
Romo, T. DAL 12.222 58.3
Palmer, C. OAK 10.750 83.8
Vick, M. PHI 10.046 84.3
Griffin, III, R. WAS 9.623 72.8
Sanchez, M NYJ 8.801 65.6
Skelton, J. ARI 8.159 68.6
Brees, D. NO 8.158 72.8
Weeden, B. CLE 7.906 55.9
Tannehill, R. MIA 3.299 50.4
Rivers, P. SD 2.015 65.1

Season RIPPEN rankings through 8 weeks of games:

Player Team RIPPEN QB rating
Manning, P. DEN 30.093 109.0
Rodgers, A. GB 24.579 107.9
Brady, T. NE 23.768 100.6
Griffin, III, R. WAS 23.374 97.3
Smith, A. SF 22.617 102.1
Ryan, M. ATL 22.566 103.0
Schaub, M. HOU 22.415 93.1
Newton, C. CAR 21.982 75.2
Roethlisberger, B. PIT 20.834 101.4
Brees, D. NO 18.954 93.0
Freeman, J. TB 18.242 93.3
Manning, E. NYG 17.580 89.1
Bradford, S. STL 17.485 82.4
Locker, J. TEN 17.147 90.2
Romo, T. DAL 16.548 78.8
Stafford, M. DET 16.317 82.1
Tannehill, R. MIA 16.205 75.8
Ponder, C. MIN 16.113 85.8
Cutler, J. DEN 15.904 78.9
Dalton, A. CIN 15.372 87.7
Luck, A. IND 14.992 74.6
Vick, M. PHI 14.703 78.6
Wilson, R. SEA 14.229 82.4
Palmer, C. OAK 14.062 85.7
Flacco, J. BAL 13.770 84.0
Rivers, P. SD 13.328 82.4
Fitzpatrick, R. BUF 12.039 86.1
Weeden, B. CLE 11.485 70.8
Sanchez, M. NYJ 11.484 72.8
Cassel, M. KC 10.430 69.0
Kolb, K. ARI 9.662 86.1
Gabbert, B. JAX 8.943 77.9
Skelton, J. ARI 8.363 64.5
Hasselbeck, M. TEN 8.039 83.3

 

Cheers.

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Week 7 QB performances reviewed via RIPPEN

An explanation of RIPPEN

RIPPEN rankings for week 7 performances:

Player Team RIPPEN QB rating
Rodgers, A. GB 43.235 106.9
Brees, D. NO 36.220 129.0
Gabbert, B. JAX 34.483 133.8
Freeman, J. TB 25.252 124.7
Schaub, M. HOU 22.707 102.2
Griffin, III, R. WAS 21.789 133.7
Romo, T. DAL 21.277 97.2
Roethlisberger, B. PIT 20.522 91.3
Manning, E. NYG 20.269 87.8
Bradford, S. STL 19.503 112.0
Fitzpatrick, R. BUF 19.106 97.1
Brady, T. NE 17.217 87.4
Sanchez, M. NYJ 16.431 92.7
Luck, A. IND 16.258 79.3
Skelton, J. ARI 13.082 83.2
Smith, A. SF 12.449 56.6
Wilson, R. SEA 7.166 87.3
Palmer, C. OAK 6.411 69.8
Henne, C. JAX 2.510 75.0
Dalton, A. CIN 2.503 77.4
Flacco, J BAL 1.790 59.4
Ponder, C. MIN 0.705 68.9

Season RIPPEN rankings through 7 weeks of games:

Player Team RIPPEN QB rating
Manning, P. DEN 28.886 105.0
Rodgers, A. GB 26.970 109.6
Griffen, III, R. WAS 26.915 101.8
Newton, C. CAR 24.975 79.3
Brady, T. NE 23.842 96.9
Ryan. M. ATL 21.828 98.8
Schaub, M. HOU 21.496 93.1
Brees, D. NO 21.221 96.1
Roethlisberger, B. PIT 21.141 98.6
Freeman, J. TB 18.409 91.2
Romo, T. DAL 18.197 84.6
Manning, E. NYG 18.150 92.5
Smith, A. SF 17.786 93.9
Locker, J. TEN 17.197 90.2
Bradford, S. STL 17.192 81.5
Ponder, C. MIN 16.677 87.5
Cutler, J. CHI 16.631 78.3
Tannehill, R. MIA 16.344 76.5
Dalton, A. CIN 15.387 87.7
Rivers, P. SD 15.290 85.3
Stafford, M. DET 15.259 78.4
Vick, M. PHI 14.984 77.7
Luck, A. IND 14.880 72.3
Palmer, C. OAK 14.846 86.0
Wilson, R. SEA 13.782 79.5
Flacco, J. BAL 13.018 84.0
Sanchez, M. NYJ 11.985 74.6
Fitzpatrick, R. BUF 11.984 86.1
Weeden, B. CLE 11.671 72.3
Kolb, K. ARI 9.443 86.1
Skelton, J. ARI 8.876 68.9
Cassel, M. KC 8.209 66.2
Gabbert, B. JAX 8.194 77.1
Hasselbeck, M. TEN 7.748 78.2

Cheers.

Week 6 QB performances reviewed via RIPPEN

An explanation of RIPPEN

RIPPEN rankings for week 6 performances:

Player Team RIPPEN QB rating
Flacco, J. BAL 38.201 106.9
Manning, P. DEN 34.475 129.0
Rodgers, A. GB 33.463 133.8
Freeman, J. TB 33.324 124.7
Palmer, C. OAK 33.153 102.2
Wilson, R. SEA 30.824 133.7
Griffin, III, R. WAS 26.015 97.2
Bradford, S. STL 25.218 91.3
Roethlisberger, B. PIT 24.023 87.8
Tannehill, R. MIA 21.243 112.0
Romo, T. DAL 20.028 97.1
Manning, E. NYG 20.927 87.4
Weeden, B. CLE 18.161 92.7
Brady, T. NE 16.272 79.3
Ponder, C. MIN 15.649 83.2
Schaub, M. HOU 14.815 56.6
Dalton, A. CIN 14.458 87.3
Stafford, M. DET 13.478 69.8
Vick, M. PHI 13.471 77.4
Ryan, M. ATL 11.480 59.4
Fitzpatrick, R. BUF 11.166 68.9
Hasselbeck, M. TEN 10.428 75.0
Luck, A. IND 9.097 51.3
Sanchez, M. NYJ 9.089 109.0
Smith, A. SF 9.038 43.1
Rivers, P. SD 5.959 54.2
Kolb, K. ARI 5.757 64.3
Quinn, B. KC 5.571 48.1
Skelton, J. ARI 3.812 6.2

Season RIPPEN rankings through six weeks of games:

Player Team RIPPEN QB rating
Manning, P. DEN 27.304 105.0
Griffin, III, R. WAS 27.279 100.5
Brady, T. NE 26.905 97.2
Newton, C. CAR 25.630 80.9
Rodgers, A. GB 24.263 105.4
Schaub, M. HOU 23.978 91.6
Ryan, M. ATL 23.689 98.8
Roethlisberger, B. PIT 20.393 99.9
Rivers, P. SD 19.697 85.3
Flacco, J. BAL 19.654 92.0
Smith, A. SF 19.131 96.6
Ponder, C. MIN 19.091 92.4
Cutler, J. CHI 18.720 78.7
Brees, D. NO 18.243 90.7
Manning, E. NYG 17.664 94.9
Palmer, C. OAK 16.843 88.7
Dalton, A. CIN 16.770 91.7
Romo, T. DAL 16.380 82.1
Locker, J. TEN 16.245 90.2
Stafford, M. DET 15.928 79.2
Freeman, J. TB 15.780 84.2
Tannehill, R. MIA 14.544 76.5
Bradford, S. STL 13.065 81.3
Vick, M. PHI 12.533 77.7
Wilson, R. SEA 11.917 85.6
Luck, A. IND 10.782 72.0
Sanchez, M. NYJ 10.761 70.9
Fitzpatrick, R. BUF 10.465 81.5
Weeden, B. CLE 10.417 68.1
Kolb, K. ARI 8.357 86.1
Cassel, M. KC 6.678 66.2
Hasselbeck, M. TEN 6.678 74.1
Gabbert, B. JAX 6.678 73.3

Cheers.

Week 5 QB Performances Reviewed Via RIPPEN

An explanation of RIPPEN

Alex Smith led the way in quarterback performances this week with an astonishing RIPPEN just over 43, and Blaine Gabbert continues to dwell at the bottom of all of my tables with a RIPPEN just above 3.

RIPPEN rankings for week 5 performances:

Player Team RIPPEN QB rating
Smith, A. SF 43.014 156.2
Tannehill, R. MIA 34.387 92.3
Brady, T. NE 28.045 104.6
Rivers, P. SD 26.194 96.7
Cutler, J. CHI 24.361 88.8
Brees, D. NO 22.586 110.4
Wilson, R. SEA 21.676 82.2
Rodgers, A. GB 19.363 103.5
Ryan, M. ATL 19.293 89.0
Schaub, M. TEX 19.174 71.9
Weeden, B. CLE 17.863 84.3
Griffin, III, R. WAS 17.237 82.9
Manning, P. DEN 17.206 116.2
Luck, A. IND 15.959 81.0
Ponder, C. MIN 15.934 87.6
Manning, E. NYG 15.532 103.3
Flacco, J. BAL 13.647 55.6
Sanchez, M. NYJ 12.100 54.5
Vick, M. PHI 11.185 104.2
Kolb, K. ARI 10.787 72.7
Roethlisberger, B. PIT 8.572 80.1
Bradford, S. STL 8.025 69.7
Newton, C. CAR 7.107 56.8
Cassel, M. KC 5.758 38.1
Dalton. A. CIN 5.575 63.5
Hasselbeck, M. TEN 5.386 69.9
Fitzpatrick, R. BUF 4.217 57.5
Gabbert, B. JAX 3.096 37.7

Looking at RIPPEN based on the whole season, Tom Brady is ranked number 1 with a RIPPEN of 27.304, which is essentially the same as RGIII’s RIPPEN of 27.279.  The top five is rounded out by Payton Manning, Alex Smith, and Matt Ryan.  My RIPPEN top five is the exact same top five as sorted by season QB rating, but in a different order.  QB rating has the top five guys ranked Smith, Ryan, Brady, Manning, RGIII.

The bottom five according to RIPPEN are Weeden, Kolb, Cassel, Gabbert, and, dead last, Matt Hasselbeck.  QB rating has three of these quarterbacks in the bottom five (Weeden, Cassel, and Gabbert), but by QB rating Sanchez and Tannehill are also in the bottom five.  I have Tannehill 19th and Sanchez 25th out of 32 quarterbacks.

As for most over and under rated quarterbacks, I regressed QB rating as a function of RIPPEN and, as expected, they are highly related.  (QB rating is approximately 58 + 1.63*RIPPEN).  However, there are some large deviations.  The most under-rated quarterback based on QB rating is Cam Newton.  His QB rating is only 80.9, but, based on RIPPEN, we’d expect him to have a QB rating about 16 points higher around 97.  Other under-rated quarterbacks include Ryan Tannehill who is about 14 points lower than expected and Mark Sanchez who is about 11 points lower than expected.  (But don’t get me wrong here, I still think Sanchez is a terrible quarterback.  I just don’t think he is the 30th best quarterback in the league, I think he’s 25th.)

The most over-rated QB based on passer rating is Kevin Kolb.  Based on his passer rating, he is ranked 16th among quarterbacks, but RIPPEN has him ranking 29th.  Based on his RIPPEN, his expected QB rating is 75.3 about 14 points lower than it actually is.  This is likely do to the weight that passer rating gives to touchdown passes.  The next two most over-rated QB’s are Ben Roethlisberger and Eli Manning.  Roethlisberger has a QB rating about 11 points higher than we would expect and Manning is about 10 points higher than expected.

Season RIPPEN rankings through five weeks of games:

Player Team RIPPEN QB rating
Brady, T. NE 27.304 102.8
Griffin, III, R. WAS 27.279 101.0
Manning, P. DEN 26.905 101.2
Smith, A. SF 25.630 108.7
Ryan, M. ATL 24.263 106.1
Newton, C. CAR 23.978 80.9
Schaub, M. HOU 23.689 99.2
Ponder, C. MIN 20.393 95.5
Rodgers, A. GB 19.697 97.0
Rivers, P. SD 19.654 93.1
Roethlisberger, B. PIT 19.131 100.6
Dalton, A. CIN 19.091 92.9
Brees, D. NO 18.720 90.7
Cutler, J. CHI 18.243 78.7
Stafford, M. DET 17.664 81.6
Manning, E. NYG 16.843 96.0
Luck, A. IND 16.770 77.1
Flacco, J. BAL 16.380 89.9
Tannehill, R. MIA 16.245 70.4
Romo, T. DAL 15.928 78.5
Vick, M. PHI 15.780 77.8
Bradford, S. STL 14.544 78.6
Palmer, C. OAK 13.065 86.0
Freeman, J. TB 12.533 75.3
Sanchez, M. NYJ 11.917 66.6
Wilson, R. SEA 10.782 75.2
Fitzpatrick, R. BUF 10.761 84.2
Weeden, B. CLE 10.465 64.5
Kolb, K. ARI 10.417 89.7
Cassel, M. KC 8.357 66.2
Gabbert, B. JAX 6.678 73.3
Hasselbeck, M. TEN 5.606 73.6

And finally, below is a plot of estimated outcome percentages that are used in calculating RIPPEN.  If you look at Peyton Manning in the upper right corner of the plot you can see that starting from his own 20 yard line and only throwing passes in a simulated world, hell score a touchdown about 32% of the time and convert a field goal about 16% of the time.  So he’d score on around 48% of drives. Compare this with Blaine Gabbert who will score a touchdown on about 6% of drives and get a filed goal about 9% of drives.  This means that 85% of Gabbert drives, in the simulated RIPPEN world, end in either a punt, an interception, or a missed field goal.

Cheers.