Bad news…..Trump is definitely going to win. :(

You’ve probably heard of the Washington Football Team rule before.  It states that:

If the Redskins win their last home game before the election, the party that won the previous election wins the next election and that if the Redskins lose, the challenging party’s candidate wins.

This has held true in 17 of the last 19 elections.  However, it’s only 1 for 3 in the last three elections.  Not a great track record.

So back in 2012 I looked for a better sports predictor of the presidency and I found it.  

From 1948 through 2008, if:

1.  The Phillies win less than 92.

2. The Indians win less than 97 games.

3.  The Red Sox win at least 75 games.

The Republican candidate has won the election every single time.  However, this method predicted that Romney would win in 2012, which did not end up happening.

So what does this say about the presidency this year?

The Phillies are currently sitting at 65 wins with only 16 left to play, the Indians are at 84 wins with 15 left to play, and the Rod Sox are already at 81 wins.  Check, almost surely check, and check.

The only chance the Clinton now has to win the election is to pray that Cleveland goes 13-2  or better in their remaining 15 games.  This is doubly odd as Cleveland, host city of the 2016 Republican National Convention, is once again at the center of the political world.

With the new findings Trump and his team are allegedly concerned that the Clinton campaign will be fixing Cleveland Indians games from now until the end of the season in spite of the fact that no evidence of game tampering has been found since 1919.  Nevertheless, Trump’s team has encouraged his supporters to attend Cleveland games and watch diligently to make sure there is no fraud happening.  Further, Republican lawmakers are encouraging baseball’s commissioner, Rob Manfred, and the front office of the Cleveland Indians to institute stricter ticketing policies.  These lawmakers want to prevent fans from attending games unless they have their ticket and at least two forms of government ID to present at the time of entrance to the stadium.  They argue this it to prevent fans from attending both halves of a double header with only one ticket.   Democratic lawmakers believe this is just a thinly veiled attempt to certain demographics of fans from attending games.

Cheers.

 

 

 

 

NFL Rankings – Week 2

 
 Rank Team Prosp Margin Change W L
1 SEA 79 5.074  –  1 0
2 CAR 69 2.513  –  0  1
3 DEN 67 3.016  – 1  0
4 NE 64 2.974  –  1  0
5 PIT 61 1.937  +2  1  0
6 SF 60 -0.463  +4  1  0
7 GB 58 2.862  -2  1  0
8 DET 58 0.518  +5  1  0
9 HOU 58 0.072  –  1 0
10 NYJ 57 -0.060  +1  0  1
11 KC 57 1.437  -5  1  0
12 BAL 56 0.368  +4  1  0
13 SD 54 -0.120  +5  0  1
14 CIN 53 1.847  -6  1  0
15 NO 53 0.459  –  0  1
16 ARI 50 1.613  +1  0  1
17 PHI 50 0.139  +5  1  0
18 MIN 48 -0.244  -4  1  0
19 DAL 48 -0.332  +2  0  1
20 BUF 45 -0.951  -8  0  1
21 IND 44 -0.139  +6  0  1
22 ATL 44 -0.633  +1  0  1
23 OAK 42 -1.883  +6  1  0
24 TB 41 -2.230  +2  1  0
25 WAS 41 -2.255  -5  0  1
26 CHI 41 -1.787  -7  0  1
27 MIA 37 -1.274  -2  0  1
28 NYG 37 -0.918  –  0  1
29 LA 34 -1.658  -5  0  1
30 CLE 32 -2.747  –  0  1
31 TEN 31 -3.374  –  0  1
32 JAC 30 -3.763  –  0  1

 

NFL Playoff Probs – Week 2

 
Team WinDivison MakePlayoffs MakeSuperBowl WinSuperBowl
ARI 11.1 61.4 6.7 2.4
ATL 2.4 7.5 0.7 0.1
BAL 14.3 37.8 5.8 2.9
BUF 4.9 12.4 1.1 0.5
CAR 87.7 93.2 17.9 11.2
CHI 1.3 8.8 0.7 0.2
CIN 36.7 68.8 8.5 3.2
CLE 0.3 1.4 0.1 0.0
DAL 36.4 40.7 4.7 1.0
DEN 72.9 92.0 25.0 12.6
DET 19.2 57.8 7.1 3.6
GB 73.9 92.8 19.5 9.9
HOU 47.4 52.2 5.2 2.2
IND 47.8 51.5 5.7 1.8
JAC 1.5 1.7 0.2 0.0
KC 19.3 57.2 8.1 3.6
MIA 3.8 7.8 0.4 0.3
MIN 5.6 28.3 2.6 1.1
NE 84.7 90.8 21.1 11.1
NO 9.7 25.0 3.3 1.2
NYG 22.0 26.3 2.1 0.2
NYJ 6.6 14.1 1.9 1.0
OAK 0.3 3.6 0.6 0.3
PHI 35.9 41.2 5.5 1.9
PIT 48.7 73.0 12.5 6.3
SD 7.5 32.1 3.4 1.4
SEA 88.3 98.4 26.7 19.0
SF 0.5 8.4 0.9 0.5
LA 0.1 2.7 0.5 0.1
TB 0.2 1.3 0.4 0.1
TEN 3.3 3.6 0.4 0.0
WAS 5.7 6.2 0.7 0.3

 

NFL Picks – Week 2

2015 Record
My record 2016:
Total (weeks 1-2) – SU: 12-4 ATS: 10-5-1 O/U: 5-10-1
Week 1 – SU: 12-4 ATS: 10-5-1 O/U: 5-10-1

NY Jets at Buffalo

Prediction: Bills 21-19 (56.5%)

Pick: Bills +3

Total: Under 40.5

Tampa Bay at Arizona 

Prediction: Cardinals 24-19 (62.5%)

Pick: Buccaneers +6.5

Total: Under 50.5

San Francisco at Carolina 

Prediction: Panthers 22-19 (56.4%)

Pick: 49ers +13.5 

Total: Under 45.5 

Baltimore at Cleveland 

Prediction: Ravens 23-21 (54.5%)

Pick: Browns +7

Total: Over 42.5 

Indianapolis at Denver 

Prediction: Broncos 26-21 (63.8%)

Pick: Colts +6

Total: Over 45.5 

Tennessee at Detroit 

Prediction: Lions 25-18 (63.8%)

Pick: Lions -5.5

Total: Under 47

Kansas City at Houston 

Prediction: Texans 21-20 (52.8%)

Pick: Chiefs +2

Total:  Under 43.5

Miami at New England 

Prediction: Patriots 26-21 (64.3%) 

Pick: Dolphins +6.5

Total: Over 41.5 

New Orleans at NY Giants 

Prediction: Saints 27-26 (51.7%) 

Pick: Saints +4.5

Total: Under 53.5 

Atlanta at Oakland 

Prediction: Falcons 23-22 (51.3%) 

Pick: Falcons +4.5

Total: Under 50

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh 

Prediction: Steelers 24-22 (54.5%)

Pick: Bengals +3.5

Total: Under 48.5

Jacksonville at San Diego 

Prediction: Chargers 26-19 (68.1%)

Pick: Chargers -3 

Total: Under 47

Seattle at Los Angeles (nee St. Louis)

Prediction: Seahawks 22-17 (64.2%)

Pick: Seahawks -3.5 

Total: Over 39

Dallas at Washington 

Prediction: Washington Football Team 23-22 (50.0%)

Pick: Cowboys +3.5 

Total: Under 45.5 

Green Bay at Minnesota

Prediction: Packers 23-21 (55.9%)

Pick: Vikings +2.5

Total: Under 44

Philadelphia at Chicago

Prediction: Bears 25-24 (50.8%)

Pick: Eagles +3

Total: Over 43

NFL Season Predictions

Key: Team -Median Record (Mean Wins)

AFC

East

New England: 12-4 (11.562)

Buffalo: 7-9 (7.388)

NY Jets: 7-9 (7.068)

Miami: 6-10 (6.243)

North

Cincinnati: 10-6 (10.348)

Pittsburgh: 10-6 (10.249)

Baltimore: 9-7 (8.666)

Cleveland: 5-11 (4.557)

South

Houston: 8-8 (8.399)

Indianapolis: 8-8 (7.962)

Tennessee: 5-11 (4.621)

Jacksonville: 4-12 (3.666)

West

Denver: 12-4 (12.228)

Kansas City: 10-6 (10.127)

Oakland: 5-11 (5.107)

San Diego: 8-8 (8.212)

NFC

East

Dallas: 8-8 (8.036)

Philadelphia: 8-8 (7.549)

NY Giants: 7-9 (6.913)

Washington: 5-11 (5.347)

North

Green Bay: 13-3 (12.476)

Detroit: 9-7 (8.978)

Minnesota: 9-7 (8.542)

Chicago: 7-9 (7.042)

South

Carolina: 11-5 (10.757)

New Orleans: 8-8 (8.295)

Atlanta: 6-10 (6.510)

Tampa Bay: 4-12 (4.386)

West

Seattle: 13-3 (13.386)

Arizona: 9-7 (9.089)

San Francisco: 7-9 (6.724)

Los Angeles (nee St. Louis): 6-10 (5.567)

 

Playoff Predictions

AFC

  1. Denver
  2. New England
  3. Cincinnati
  4. Houston
  5. Pittsburgh
  6. Kansas City

NFC

  1. Seattle
  2. Green Bay
  3. Carolina
  4. Dallas
  5. Arizona
  6. Detroit

Wild Card Games

Kansas City (6) beats Cincinnati (3)

Pittsburgh (5) beats Houston(4)

(3) Carolina beats (6) Detroit

(5) Arizona beats (4) Dallas

Divisional Round

(1) Denver beats (6) Kansas City

(2) New England beats (5) Pittsburgh

(1) Seattle beats (5) Arizona

(3) Carolina beats (2) Green Bay

Conference Championships

(1) Denver beats (2) New England

(1) Seattle beats (3) Carolina

Super Bowl

(1) Seattle beats (1) Denver

 

NFL Playoff Probabilities and Team Rankings

 
Team WinDivison MakePlayoffs MakeSuperBowl WinSuperBowl
ARI 3.0 48.9 3.0 0.9
ATL 3.9 10.2 1.5 0.7
BAL 13.9 35.3 3.4 0.7
BUF 4.2 13.3 1.8 0.6
CAR 79.5 87.5 15.4 9.2
CHI 1.7 12.5 1.4 0.4
CIN 44.1 71.3 11.0 4.7
CLE 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.0
DAL 42.8 46.8 4.3 1.1
DEN 76.8 95.9 25.4 12.8
DET 8.3 47.5 4.7 2.4
GB 84.7 97.2 24.6 13.7
HOU 54.1 57.2 7.7 2.4
IND 42.0 44.5 5.3 0.8
JAC 0.9 1.0 0.1 0.0
KC 19.0 67.6 8.1 3.2
MIA 1.3 5.1 0.7 0.5
MIN 5.3 37.8 3.2 1.7
NE 90.3 94.1 20.9 9.8
NO 16.4 35.8 3.8 1.5
NYG 22.6 24.4 2.6 0.6
NYJ 4.2 14.1 1.6 0.5
OAK 0.1 1.3 0.0 0.0
PHI 29.6 33.4 3.4 1.3
PIT 41.9 69.0 11.9 5.6
SD 4.1 26.8 2.0 0.7
SEA 96.8 99.9 30.5 23.6
SF 0.2 9.1 0.9 0.5
LA 0.0 2.4 0.0 0.0
TB 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.0
TEN 3.0 3.1 0.1 0.0
WAS 5.0 6.0 0.5 0.1

 

 
Team Retro Prosp PredMargin Change W L
17 SEA 50 87 5.722
9 CAR 54 72 2.402  0  1
3 DEN 58 71 3.583  1  0
24 NE 46 70 3.708
2 GB 59 66 3.474
6 KC 56 62 1.717
7 PIT 55 59 1.776
15 CIN 50 58 2.073
19 HOU 47 57 -0.140
14 SF 51 56 -0.540
4 NYJ 57 55 -0.107
21 BUF 47 54 -0.371
20 DET 47 53 0.318
28 MIN 44 53 0.071
12 NO 53 53 0.646
32 BAL 40 52 0.139
1 ARI 60 50 1.334
27 SD 45 48 -0.350
23 CHI 46 45 -1.328
5 WAS 57 43 -2.130
31 DAL 42 43 -0.486
10 PHI 53 42 -0.273
13 ATL 53 41 -0.704
8 STL 54 41 -1.449
26 MIA 45 39 -1.063
18 TB 49 38 -2.566
16 IND 50 36 -0.699
25 NYG 46 35 -1.196
29 OAK 43 34 -2.595
11 CLE 53 32 -2.849
30 TEN 42 25 -3.776
22 JAC 46 23 -4.341

 

NFL Picks -Week 1

2015 Record
My record 2016:
Total (weeks 1-16) – SU: 12-4 ATS: 10-5-1 O/U: 5-10-1
Week 1 – SU: 12-4 ATS: 10-5-1 O/U: 5-10-1

Carolina at Denver

Prediction: Broncos 23-20 (58%)

Pick: Broncos +3 

Total: Over 40.5

New England at Arizona

Prediction: Patriots 24-23 (52%)Pick: Patriots +9

Total: Over 44 PUSH

Tampa Bay at Atlanta

Prediction: Falcons 25-21 (60.1%)

Pick: Falcons -2.5

Total: Under 47

Buffalo at Baltimore

Prediction: Ravens 22-20 (56.2%)

Pick: Bills +3

Total: Under 44.5

NY Giants at Dallas

Prediction: Cowboys 24-22 (56.8%)

Pick: Dallas +1 PUSH

Total: Under 47.5 

Chicago at Houston

Prediction: Texans 23-20 (58%)

Pick: Bears +5.5

Total: Over 42.5

Detroit at Indianapolis

Prediction: Colts 23-22 (51.8%)

Pick: Lions +3

Total: Under 50.5

Green Bay at Jacksonville

Prediction: Packers 26-19 (67%)

Pick: Packers -3.5

Total: Under 47.5

San Diego at Kansas City

Prediction: Chiefs 24-20 (60.5%

Pick: Chargers +6.5

Total: Under 46

Oakland at New Orleans

Prediction: Saints 27-22 (63.8%)

Pick: Saints -3

Total: Under 50.5

Cincinnati at NY Jets

Prediction: Bengals 21-20 (51.5%)

Pick: Bengals -1

Total: Under 42 

Cleveland at Philadelphia

Prediction: Eagles 26-22

Pick: Eagles -3.5

Total: Over 41

Miami at Seattle

Prediction: Seahawks 25-17

Pick: Dolphins +10.5

Total: Under 44

Minnesota at Tennessee

Prediction: Vikings 21-19

Pick: Titans +2.5

Total: Under 40

Pittsburgh at Washington

Prediction: Steelers 25-22 (56.4%)

Pick: Steelers -2.5

Total: Under 50

Los Angeles (nee St. Louis) at San Francisco

Prediction: 49ers 21-18 (57.3%)

Pick: 49ers +2.5

Total: Under 43

R history

One of my colleagues, Tim O’Brien, showed a slide in the first week of his classes describing how he first found out about R:

Screen Shot 2016-09-06 at 9.04.54 AM.png

Here is that email from 1996 (TWENTY years ago!!!) where Tim asked Ross Ihaka how to get R, and Ross helped him out.  #amazing #history

Screen Shot 2016-09-06 at 9.04.40 AM.png

Cheers.

Chances of winning presidential election in terms of an NFL football game.

There is a general election happening right now and the NFL season is starting.  Let’s talk about the candidates chances in terms of NFL games.

At the The Upshot they track 8 different presidential forecasts, 5 of which give actual percentages.  Currently (at 11:07am on September 2nd) Clinton’s win probabilities range from a high of 94% based on the Princeton Election Consortium’s forecast to a low of 74% for FiveThirtyEight and DailyKos.  (PredictWise has it at 77% and the New York Times has it at 87%).

Let’s put these probabilities in context using Pro Football Reference’s NFL win probability calculator:

Let’s start by looking at the worst case scenario for Trump: 6% chance to win.  (Unless otherwise noted, I’m assuming the spread is 0.)

  • 5.9%: A 21 point underdog wins the game outright.
  • 5.8%: Your team is down 15 at halftime.
  • 5.97%: Your team has the ball and is trailing by 7 with 2 minutes left with 1st and 10 from your own 3 yard line.
  • 6.09%: Your team has the ball and is trailing by 3 with 10 seconds left with 1st and 10 from your own 10 yard line.

 

 

Now let’s look at Trump’s best case scenario for Trump: 26%

  • 26.4%: An 8.5 point underdog wins the game outright.
  • 26.4%: Your team is down 6 at halftime.
  • 26.28%: Your team has the ball and is trailing by 7 with 2 minutes left with 1st and 10 from your opponents 13 yard line.
  • 25.37%: Your has the ball and is trailing by 3 with 10 seconds left with 1st and 10 from your opponents 40 yard line.

In Clinton’s best case scenario, she has  94% chance to win the election.

  • 93.78%: Your team has the ball and is up by 4 with 2 minutes left with 1st and 10 from your own 20 yard line.
  • 94.2%: Your team is up 15 at halftime.
  • 94.1%: A 21 point favorite wins the game outright.

In Clinton’s worst case scenario, she has  74% chance to win the election.

  • 74.83%: Your team has the ball and is up by 3 with 4 minutes left with 1st and 10 from your own 20 yard line.
  • 73.6%: Your team is up 6 at halftime.
  • 73.6%: An 8.5 point favorite wins the game outright.

 

So Clinton’s chances of winning right now are comparable to a team that is somewhere between an 8.5 and 21 point favorite.  Or a team that is up somewhere between 6 and 15 points at half time.

Sort of unrelated fun fact that I found when looking up Super Bowl spreads:  That last three teams to be favored by more than 10 have all lost outright (2008 New England (-12), 2002 St. Louis (-14), 1998 Green Bay (-11)).

Cheers.

 

 

State of the Election 2016 – August 24, 2016

Based on @predictit state electoral college markets, Clinton has about a 94.1% chance to win in November compared to a 5.6% chance for Trump (with a 0.3% chance of a tie).  Details of how I estimated these probabilities are here and the code is on github here.

PredictItPresident_20160824

Overall in the past week, there has been a small shift towards Trump.  Clinton hit a high of about 96.8% on August 18 and is down a few percentage points today to about 94.1%  This has been pretty steady since around August 9th when clinton jumped to over 90% and she’s been above that ever since.  This is good news for Clinton who, as recently as August 1st was in the low 80’s percentage wise to win the electoral college.  It will be interesting to see if Trump can make any sort of comeback at all or if Clinton will hold steady in the 93-97% range up until the election.

PredictItPresident_time

I’ve also looked at state polling information based on the Huffington Post’s collection of polls.  (You can get my scraping and plot building code here.)  You can see a few new states have been added since the last time including West Virginia and Massachusetts.  Not surprisingly, these are deep red and deep blue, respectively.  States with no polling data in the Huffington Post data set will not appear in this graph.  What I still find fascinating about this plot is how well third party candidates are doing in a few states.  States like Idaho, Utah, Texas, and Delaware seem very receptive to the idea of voting for a third party candidate like Gary Johnson.  It will be interesting to see if Johnson can somehow win a state like Idaho or Utah, which both have large Mormon populations and loathe both major candidates.

TrumpVsClintonStatePolls20160824.png

I’ve also put together a plot of national polling over time.  The top plot here follows the race from September 2015 to present whereas the bottom plot focuses on May 1, 2016 – present.  I’ve also indicated when some key events took place like debates, Super Tuesday, when each candidate got the clinching number of delegates, and their primaries.

You can see that before about May of this year, polling between Trump and Clinton was fairly sparse as they were still battling in their respective primaries.  After that though more Clinton vs Trump polls were taken and the margin of error for these polls drops considerably.  Both candidates continue to increase their polling numbers, but the gap between Clinton and Trump has been a pretty consistent 3-5% since right after the Democratic National Convention.

TrumpVsClintonNationalPolls

Finally, I made GIFs!  Here are the state polls over time.

19g2b6.gif

And here is the electoral college distribution over time.

19gkwy.gif

Cheers!