It just keeps getting worse:

After 100 games:

The cream has dropped:

After 72 games:

The cream keeps rising……….

Through 48 games.

Through 24 games:

Through 20 games:

Through 12 games:

My probabilities to my Kaggle March Madness contest:

March 19, 2026

Men

Ohio State over TCU: 59.36% (Loss: 0.352361)

Nebraska over Troy: 86.92% (Loss: 0.01710864)

Louisville over South Florida: 66.41% (Loss: 0.1128288)

Wisconsin over High Point: 83.07% (Loss: 0.6900625)

Duke over Siena: 100% (Loss: 0)

Vanderbilt over McNeese St: 85.10% (Loss: 0.022201)

Michigan St over North Dakota State: 92.41% (Loss: 0.00576081)

Arkansas over Hawaii: 91.28% (loss: 0.00760384)

North Carolina over VCU: 59.36% (Loss: 0.352361)

Michigan over Howard: 100% (Loss: 0)

BYU over Texas: 59.36% (Loss: 0.352361)

St. Mary’s CA over Texas A&M: 62.95% (Loss: 0.3962702)

Illinois over Penn: 97.94% (Loss: 0.00042436)

Georgia over St Louis: 59.36% (Loss: 0.352361)

Gonzaga over Kennesaw: 96.29% (Loss: 0.00137641)

Houston over Idaho: 97.24% (Loss: 0.00076176)

March 20, 2026

Men

Kentucky over Santa Clara: 62.95% (Loss: 0.1372703)

Texas Tech over Akron: 75.70% (Loss: 0.059049)

Arizona over LIU: 100% (Loss: 0)

Virginia over Wright State: 94.28% (Loss: 0.00327184)

Iowa State over Tennessee State: 97.61% (Loss: 0.00057121)

Alabama over Hofstra: 85.10% (Loss: 0.022201)

Utah State over Villanova: 55.66% (Loss: 0.1966036)

Iowa over Clemson: 59.36% (Loss: 0.165161)

St. John’s over Northern Iowa: 80.83% (Loss: 0.03674889)

Tennessee over Miami OH: 83.07% (Loss: 0.02866249)

UCLA over UCF: 69.70% (Loss: 0.091809)

Purdue over Queens: 100% (Loss: 0)

Florida over Prairie View: 100% (Loss: 0)

Kansas over Cal Baptist: 89.99% (Loss: 0.01002001)

UConn over Furman: 100% (Loss: 0)

Miami over Missouri: 55.66% (Loss: 0.1966036)

Women

Duke over College of Charleston: 100% (Loss: 0)

TCU over UC San Diego: 100% (Loss: 0)

Oregon over Virginia Tech: 62.95% (Loss: 0.1372703)

Nebraska over Baylor: 50.29% (Loss: 0.2529084)

Washington over San Diego State: 97.24% (Loss: 0.00076176)

Maryland over Murray State: 100% (Loss: 0)

Ole Miss over Gonzaga: 88.55% (Loss: 0.01311025)

Texas over Missouri State: 99.97% (Loss: 0)

Michigan over Holy Cross: 100% (Loss: 0)

North Carolina over Western Illinois: 100% (Loss: 0)

LSU over Jacksonville: 100% (Loss: 0)

Minnesota over WI Green Bay: 100% (Loss: 0)

Michigan State over Colorado State: 94.28% (Loss: 0.00327184)

NC State over Tennessee: 55.66% (Loss: 0.1966036

Texas Tech over Villanova: 55.66% (Loss: 0.1966036)

Oklahoma over Idaho: 100% (Loss: 0)

March 21, 2026

Men

Michigan over St Louis: 98.08% (Loss: 0.00036864)

Michigan State over Louisville: 81.41% (Loss: 0.03455881)

Duke over TCU: 96.65%

Houston over Texas A&M: 83.53%

Gonzaga over Texas: 75.36%

Illinois over VCU: 51.07%

Vanderbilt over Nebraska: 65.59%

Arkansas over High Point: 86.92%

Women

Ohio State over Howard: 100% (Loss: 0)

Louisville over Vermont: 100% (Loss: 0)

South Carolina over Southern: 99.99% (Loss: 0.00000001)

Georgia over Virginia: 83.12% (Loss: 0.6908934)

Notre Dame over Fairfield: 80.83% (Loss: 0.03674889)

Kentucky over James Madison: 90.00% (Loss: 0.01)

Alabama over Rhode Island: 80.83% (Loss: 0.03674889)

UConn over UTSA: 100% (Loss: 0)

USC over Clemson: 69.70% (Loss: 0.091809)

Iowa over Fairleigh Dickinson: 100% (Loss: 0)

West Virginia over Miami OH: 100% (Loss: 0)

Iowa St over Syracuse: 75.70% (Loss: 0.573049)

Vanderbilt over High Point: 100% (Loss: 0)

Oklahoma St over Princeton: 72.80% (Loss: 0.073984)

Illinois over Colorado: 62.95% (Loss: 0.1372703)

UCLA over Cal Baptist: 100% (Loss: 0)

March 22

Men

Purdue over Miami FL: 80.81%

Iowa State over Kentucky: 68.10%

St John’s over Kansas: 64.47%

Virginia over Tennessee: 88.55%

Florida over Iowa: 89.54%

Arizona over Utah State: 96.69%

UConn over UCLA: 68.60%

Texas Tech over Alabama: 52.23%

Women

North Carolina over Maryland: 58.35%

Michigan over NC State: 96.23%

Minnesota over Ole Miss: 74.41%

LSU over Texas Tech: 98.18%

Duke over Baylor: 86.28%

Texas over Oregon: 98.52%

Oklahoma over Michigan State: 85.08%

TCU over Washington: 58.57%

March 26, 2026

Houston over Illinois: 74.29%

Arizona over Arkansas: 78.53%

Nebraska over Iowa: 63.56%

Purdue over Texas: 87.83%

March 26, 2026

Men’s

Duke over St. John’s: 93.75%

Michigan over Alabama: 91.14%

Iowa State over Tennessee: 72.37%

UConn over Michigan State: 74.95%

Women’s

Vanderbilt over Notre Dame: 81.44%

UConn over North Carolina: 99.999%

UCLA over Minnesota: 99.992%

LSU over Duke: 86.66%

Cheers.