Category Archives: Uncategorized
Map: Do You Live In IHOP America Or Waffle House America?
Deadspin answers the question of whether you live in IHOP America or Waffle House America.
I also found it particularly interested that at the very end of the Deadspin article they say:
Waffle House does so much business in the South that the impact of hurricanes on Waffle House service is actually an informal measure of hurricane intensity.
Cheers.
Survivorship Bias
The Misconception: You should focus on the successful if you wish to become successful.
The Truth: When failure becomes invisible, the difference between failure and success may also become invisible.
In New York City, in an apartment along the Hudson River, above trees reaching out over sidewalks and dogs pulling at leashes and conversations cut short to avoid parking tickets, a group of professional thinkers once gathered and completed equations that would both snuff and spare several hundred thousand human lives.
People walking by the apartment at the time had no idea that four stories above them some of the most important work in applied mathematics was tilting the scales of a global conflict as secret agents of the United States armed forces, arithmetical soldiers, engaged in statistical combat. Nor could people today know as they open umbrellas and twist heels on cigarettes, that nearby, in an apartment overlooking Morningside…
View original post 6,331 more words
Dissertation Boot Camp: Val Style
I graduated from UConn in 2011, and I gave a talk there this morning. After my talk I met with some friends for lunch who are in the middle of their dissertations. As it starts to get nice outside in Storrs, many of them are having trouble writing their dissertations. As such, my former office mate (and future “doctor”) has been running “Dissertation Boot Camp”. I’m told that this wasn’t her idea, but she has added her own touch to it. Basically, student pay her $80 dollars and if they don’t commit too many infractions over the period of boot camp, they get all or part of their money back, hopefully with a completed dissertation. Below are the rules and consequences that Val has set forth for boot camp. If you want to use Val’s template for your own dissertation bootcamp, you get get it here.
The rules:
- Show up on time. You must sign in/out when you enter/leave the lab.
- Keep talking to a minimum. If asked to stop talking, you must do so immediately.
- Internet usage is for dissertation related business only
- You are allowed one hour off during bootcamp hours to be taken at whatever time (or times) you chose.
- Apply for a minimum of 3 jobs per week outside of dissertation bootcamp hours. Print confirmation and submit at end of week.
The consequences:
- First infraction: Verbal warning
- Second infraction: Buy Val coffee that morning
- Third infraction: Buy Val coffee for a week
- Fourth infraction: Val will take $10 from your dissertation fee
- Fifth infraction: Val will take $20 from your dissertation fee
- Sixth infraction: Val will take $50 from your dissertation fee
- Seventh infraction: Val will rate you on http://www.ratemyprofessor.com. It will be a one star rating.
- Eighth infraction: Val will send an anonymous email to your advisor. It will say “<Insert your name here> is not motivated or smart enough to earn a PhD”
- Ninth infraction: Val will send an anonymous email to your advisor. It will say, “<Insert your name here> thinks your research is not at all innovative or useful.”
All Killer Tornadoes Since 1950
I feel like tornadoes have been everyone recently. I was driving home yesterday and I was listening to an NPR piece about the recent tornado in Oklahoma, and the broadcast was interrupted by a tornado warning for western MA/Northern CT/Eastern NY. Even though this warning happened to be no where near me, I’m way more terrified of tornadoes than I ever used to be as I figured they couldn’t happen in Massachusetts. But my false sense of security was destroyed almost 2 years ago when a tornado missed my house by about a quarter mile on the first official day of my post-doc appointment. I certainly won’t forget my first day of work.
Anyway, here is a nice visualization of all tornadoes that have killed someone since 1950. Click on the image to get to the interactive version of the map. Stay safe.
Cheers.
Fluoride and Portland
Here is an excerpt from the article “What’s the matter with Portland?” (Read the full article here) about the city’s refusal to fluoridate their water supply.
“What is alarming to me … is that [fluoride includes] known contaminants … I don’t think it makes any sense to add more contaminants to our kids’ water.”
She [Kellie Barnes, spokeswoman for Clean Water Portland] is referring to a National Science Foundation study from June 2012 that showed that 43 percent of “fluoride products” contain trace elements of arsenic, 2 percent contain similar proportions of lead, and 2 percent copper. However, what Clean Water Portland does not say is that the report finds that the amounts of heavy metals found in these samples are so minuscule as to be completely innocuous; none come remotely close to the EPA’s Maximum Contaminant Levels. Similar flaws can be found with Clean Water Portland’s analysis of many of the studies that supposedly support their cause. The centerpiece of their argument is a Harvard review of studies which concludes that naturally occurring fluoridation may lower child IQ—at levels more than 10 times higher than any ever recommended in the United States. The research looks pretty shaky anyway, considering that most of the studies didn’t control for parental education and household income, among other factors. CWP claims that a 2006 studyfrom the National Academy of Sciences links fluoride in drinking water “to a broad spectrum of human health ailments from neurological damage and thyroid disorders … and increased risks of bone cancer.” But, again, the study looks at far higher concentrations of fluoride than have ever been recommended in the United States. The chairman of the commission responsible for the study, John Doull, even wrote (regarding a policy battle over fluoridation in Kansas City): “I do not believe there is any valid scientific reason for fearing adverse health conditions from the consumption of water fluoridated at the optimal level.”
I’m highlighting this portion because it seems to be a tactic used my many anti-fluoridaters/anti-vacciners (the anties). They point to studies and only mention the parts that boost their argument. Here they talk about “fluoride products” containing copper, lead, and arsenic. Terrifying right? But they fail to mention that the quantities are so low that they are essentially harmless. Thankfully good scientists weigh both the risks AND the benefits against each other when making decisions, and don’t just focus on one side or the other.
And one other part of the anti-fluoridation argument that baffles me is that many communities also chlorinate their water, but no one seems to have as problem with that? Why is that?
Cheers.
Greatest comebacks in recent Boston sports history
I meant to send this out earlier in the week, but I’m just getting to it now. Great stuff from StatsByLopez. Make sure to check out the FanGraphs graph of the 2004 ALCS series. Really neat display of that data.
The greatest comebacks in post-2000 Boston sports history, ranked by a combination of estimated statistical improbability & game importance (postseason only).
1. Red Sox 2004 Series vs. NY Yankees: Win Probability, 0.0175 (1 in 60).
This win probabilities accounts for Mariano Rivera as the Yankees closer (0.14 chance of the Sox winning Game 4), and uses an equal chance of each team winning the final 3 games (1 in 8 for the Sox winning all 3). I thought this graph was pretty unique, as it looks at the series probabilities across all seven games. The opponent and situation (ALCS) increase the importance of this comeback, helping to make it the greatest in recent Boston sports history.
2. Bruins 2013 Rd 1 Game 7 vs. Toronto: Win Probability: 0.02 (down by 3, 10 minutes left) and 0.007 (down by 2, 1.4 minute left).
I don’t think I realized how unlikely this…
View original post 833 more words
Today in baseball history
1902 – Two deaf-mutes face each other for the first time when Dummy Hoy leads off for the Reds against Dummy Taylor of the Giants. The Reds win, 5 – 3, with a 5-run rally in the 9th. Hoy goes 2 for 4.
Wow.
Top 25 MLB Pitchers – May 16, 2013
Total Prevention is a measure of runs prevented weighted by the number of batters they have faced (Higher is better).
Yearly Expected ER is approximately the expected number of runs that a team would allow is that pitcher pitched every inning of every game for a team (Lower is better).
|
Stats in the Wild 
