Deceiving NFL records – Eagles example
Most of the people who know what they are doing don’t have the Philadelphia Eagles ranked number 1 (e.g. TeamRankings.com, ThePowerRank.com, FiveThirtyEight.com) even though the Eagles are 8-1 and have the best record in the NFL. So I just did a quick look at their schedule to see who they have played. It’s not great. They’ve played only two teams with winning records (Carolina and Kansas City) and in those gams they are 1-1 (They beat Carolina and lost to KC). The full list of their opponents records looks like this:
- 7-3
- 6-3
- 4-5
- 4-5
- 4-5
- 3-6
- 3-6
- 1-8
- 1-9
That adds up to an opponents’ collective record of 33-50 or about 39.8% winning percentage. A team with that winning percentage would win 6.36 games in a season with 16 games.
Now let’s compare that with the Atlanta Falcons who are 5-4. They have played 6 teams with winning records and are 3-3 in those games. Their opponents’ records look like this:
- 7-2
- 7-3
- 5-4
- 5-4
- 5-4
- 5-4
- 4-5
- 4-6
- 3-6
This gives a collective record for their opponents of 45-38, which is about 54.2%. That winning percentage amounts to winning 8.67 games out of 16.
This is a really simplistic way of looking at strength of schedule, but with a difference this stark you don’t need any complex analysis to see it. This difference in schedules is huge through 9 games for the Eagles and the Falcons so that the Eagles probably aren’t really as good as their record indicates and the Falcons are probably a bit better than their record. It’s so easy to see that from just looking at their schedules. That’s why when I see the Eagles ranked number 1 at this point in the season in a set of rankings, it’s hard to take those rankings seriously. For instance, ESPN. Why don’t they just use the rankings from FiveThirtyEight, which are actually based on, you know, data.
Cheers.
NFL Rankings – Week 11
- New England (7-2)
- Atlanta (5-4)
- Pittsburgh (8-2)
- Dallas (5-4)
- Kansas City (6-3)
- LA Rams (7-2)
- New Orleans (7-2)
- Seattle (6-3)
- Philadelphia (8-1)
- Jacksonville (6-3)
- Minnesota (7-2)
- Oakland (4-5)
- Carolina (7-3)
- LA Chargers (3-6)
- Tennessee (6-4)
- Buffalo (5-4)
- Detroit (5-4)
- NY Jets (4-6)
- Washington (4-5)
- Baltimore (4-5)
- Cincinnati (3-6)
- Denver (3-6)
- Chicago (3-6)
- Tampa Bay (3-6)
- Arizona (4-5)
- NY Giants (1-8)
- Green Bay (5-4)
- Miami (4-5)
- Houston (3-6)
- Indianapolis (3-7)
- Cleveland (0-9)
- San Francisco (1-9)
NFL Picks – Week 11
Tennessee at Pittsburgh
Prediction: Steelers 26-19
Pick: Steelers -6.5
Total: Over 44.5
Detroit at Chicago
Prediction: Bears 21-20
Pick: Bears +3.5
Total: Over 41
Tampa Bay at Miami
Prediction: Dolphins 24-23
Pick: Dolphins +1
Total: Over 42
Jacksonville at Cleveland
Prediction: Jaguars 24-14
Pick: Jaguars -7.5
Total: Over 37
Baltimore at Green Bay
Prediction: Ravens 19-18
Pick: Packers +2
Total: Under 38
Arizona at Houston
Prediction: Texans 20-19
Pick: Cardinals +1.5
Total: Over 37.5
LA Rams at Minnesota
Prediction: Rams 21-20
Pick: Rams +2.5
Total: Under 46
Washington at New Orleans
Prediction: Saints 28-21
Pick: Washington Football Team +9
Total: Under 52.5
Kansas City at NY Giants
Prediction: Chiefs 26-20
Pick: Giants +10
Total: Under 46
Buffalo at LA Chargers
Prediction: Chargers 24-21
Pick: Bills +6.5
Total: Over 41
Cincinnati at Denver
Prediction: Broncos 19-17
Pick: Bengals 2.5
Total: Under 38
New England at Oakland
Prediction: Patriots 29-23
Pick: Raiders +7.5
Total: Under 55
Philadelphia at Dallas
Prediction: Cowboys 26-23
Pick: Cowboys +6
Total: Over 48
Atlanta at Seattle
Prediction: Seahawks 23-22
Pick: Falcons +2
Total: Under 45.5
NFL Picks – Week 10
Seattle at Arizona
Prediction: Seahawks 22-20
Pick: Arizona +6 PUSH
Total: Over 40.5
New Orleans at Buffalo
Prediction: Saints 25-24
Pick: Bills +2
Total: Over 48.5
Green Bay at Chicago
Prediction: Bears 22-18
Pick: Packers +5
Total: Over 37.5
Pittsburgh at Indianapolis
Prediction: Steelers 27-17
Pick: Colts +10.5
Total: Under 47
Cleveland at Detroit
Prediction: Lions 29-13
Pick: Lions -10
Total: Under 42.5
LA Chargers at Jacksonville
Prediction: Jaguars 22-17
Pick: Jaguars -5
Total: Under 41
Cincinnati at Tennessee
Prediction: Titans 22-21
Pick: Bengals +4.5
Total: Over 40.5
NY Jets at Tampa Bay
Prediction: Buccaneers 26-21
Pick: Buccaneers -1
Total: over 44.5
Minnesota at Washington
Prediction: Vikings 21-19
Pick: Vikings -1
Total: Under 42.5
Houston at LA Rams
Prediction: Rams 26-20
Pick: Texans +12.5
Total: Over 46
Dallas at Atlanta
Prediction: Falcons 27-23
Pick: Falcons -3.5
Total: Over 49
NY Giants at San Francisco
Prediction: 49ers 20-17
Pick: 49ers +3
Total: Under 41.7
New England at Denver
Prediction: Patriots 23-21
Pick: Broncos +7
Total: Under 45
Miami at Carolina
Prediction: Panthers 22-16
Pick: Dolphins +9
Total: Under 38.5
NFL Picks – Week 9
Buffalo at NY Jets
Prediction: Bills 20-19
Pick: Jets +3.5
Total: Under 42
Atlanta at Carolina
Prediction: Falcons 23-22
Pick: Panthers +1.5
Total: Over 43.5
Indianapolis at Houston
Prediction: Houston 28-22
Pick: Colts +7
Total: Over 46
Cincinnati at Jacksonville
Prediction: Bengals 18-17
Pick: Bengals +5.5
Total: Under 39
Tampa Bay at New Orleans
Prediction: Saints 29-23
Pick: Buccaneers +6.5
Total: Over 51.5
LA Rams at NY Giants
Prediction: Rams 22-21
Pick: Giants +3.5
Total: Over 42
Baltimore at Tennessee
Prediction: Titans 21-18
Pick: Ravens +3.5
Total: Under 43.5
Denver at Philadelphia
Prediction: Eagles 23-20
Pick: Broncos +7.5
Total: Under 43.5
Washington at Seattle
Prediction: Seahawks 23-19
Pick: Washington Football Team +7
Total: Under 45
Arizona at San Francisco
Prediction: Cardinals 22-19
Pick: Cardinals -2.5
Total: Under 39.5
Kansas City at Dallas
Prediction: Chiefs 24-23
Pick: Chiefs EVEN
Total: Under 51.5
Oakland at Miami
Prediction: Raiders 24-22
Pick: Dolphins +3 PUSH
Total: Over 44
Detroit at Green Bay
Prediction: Packers 24-20
Pick: Packers +2.5
Total: Over 43.5
NFL Picks – Week 8
Miami at Baltimore
Prediction: Ravens 20-17
Pick: Ravens -3
Total: Under 38
Minnesota at Cleveland
Prediction: Vikings 25-17
Pick: Browns +9.5
Total: Over 38
Oakland at Buffalo
Prediction: Bills 24-20
Pick: Bills -2.5
Total: Under 45.5
Indianapolis at Cincinnati
Prediction: Bengals 26-16
Pick: Colts +10.5
Total: Under 42
Chicago at New Orleans
Prediction: Saints 29-15
Pick: Saints -9
Total: Under 47.5
LA Chargers at New England
Prediction: Patriots 31-23
Pick: Patriots -7.5
Total: Over 49
Atlanta at NY Jets
Prediction: Falcons 28-19
Pick: Falcons -5 PUSH
Total: Over 46
San Francisco at Philadelphia
Prediction: Eagles 29-16
Pick: 49ers +13
Total: Under 46
Carolina at Tampa Bay
Prediction: Buccaneers 23-21
Pick: Buccaneers -2
Total: Under 46
Houston at Seattle
Prediction: Seahawks 25-18
Pick: Seahawks -5.5
Total: Under 46
Dallas at Washington
Prediction: Washington Football Team 26-25
Pick: Washington Football Team +2
Total: Over 49.5
Pittsburgh at Detroit
Prediction: Lions 24-22
Pick: Lions +3
Total: Under 46.5
Denver at Kansas City
Prediction: Chiefs 21-19
Pick: Broncos +7.5
Total: Under 43
NFL Picks – Week 7
Kansas City at Oakland
Prediction: Chiefs 24-22
Pick: Oakland +3
Total: Under 46.5
Tampa Bay at Buffalo
Prediction: Buccaneers 23-22
Pick: Buccaneers +3 PUSH
Total: Under 46.5
Carolina at Chicago
Prediction: Panthers 22-20
Pick: Bears +3.5
Total: Over 41
Tennessee at Cleveland
Prediction: Titans 24-21
Pick: Browns +6
Total: Under 46.5
Jacksonville at Indianapolis
Prediction: Jaguars 23-18
Pick: Jaguars -3
Total: Under 43.5
New Orleans at Green Bay
Prediction: Packers 29-25
Pick: Packers +4
Total: Over 47.5
NY Jets at Miami
Prediction: Dolphins 21-19
Pick: Jets +3
Total: Over 38
Baltimore at Minnesota
Prediction: Vikings 20-18
Pick: Ravens +6
Total: Under 39
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh
Prediction: Steelers 24-18
Pick: Steelers -5
Total: Over 40.5
Arizona at LA Rams
Prediction: Rams 25-21
Pick: Rams -3.5
Total: Under 46
Dallas at San Francisco
Prediction: Cowboys 28-19
Pick: Cowboys -6
Total: Under 47
Seattle at NY Giants
Prediction: Seahawks 22-20
Pick: Giants +4.5
Total: Over 40
Denver at LA Chargers
Prediction: Broncos 25-18
Pick: Broncos -1
Total: Over 40.5
Atlanta at New England
Prediction: Patriots 29-26
Pick: Falcons +3.5
Total: Under 56.5
Washington at Philadelphia
Prediction: Eagles 25-24
Pick: Washington Football Team +5
Total: Under 49.5
NFL Picks – Week 6
Philadelphia at Carolina
Prediction: Eagles 19-18
Pick: Eagles +3
Total: Under 45.5
Miami at Atlanta
Prediction: Falcons 24-19
Pick: Dolphins +11.5
Total: Under 46.5
Cleveland at Houston
Prediction: Texans 22-16
Pick: Browns +9.5
Total: Under 47.5
Green Bay at Minnesota
Prediction: Packers 21-20
Pick: Vikings +3.5
Total: Under 47
Detroit at New Orleans
Prediction: Saints 24-22
Pick: Lions +4.5
Total: Under 50
New England at NY Jets
Prediction: Patriots 28-15
Pick: Patriots -9.5
Total: Under 47.5
Chicago at Baltimore
Prediction: Ravens 18-13
Pick: Bears +6.5
Total: Under 39.5
San Francisco at Washington
Prediction: Washington Football Team 23-19
Pick: 49ers +10
Total: Under 46.5
Tampa Bay at Arizona
Prediction: Buccaneers 23-19
Pick: Buccaneers -2
Total: Under 45
LA Rams at Jacksonville
Prediction: Rams 19-18
Pick: Rams +2.5
Total: Under 42.5
Pittsburgh at Kansas City
Prediction: Steelers 22-19
Pick: Steelers +4
Total: Under 47
LA Chargers at Oakland
Prediction: Raiders 22-21
Pick: Chargers +3.5
Total: Under 50.5
NY Giants at Denver
Prediction: Broncos 18-16
Pick: Giants +12
Total: Under 39.5
Indianapolis at Tennessee
Prediction: Titans 23-14
Pick: Titans -7
Total: Under 46.5
NFL Rankings – Week 5
- New England Patriots
- Pittsburgh Steelers
- Green Bay Packers
- Dallas Cowboys
- Atlanta Falcons
- Denver Broncos
- Seattle Seahawks
- Tennessee Titans
- Kansas City Chiefs
- Carolina Panthers
- Oakland Raiders
- Los Angeles Rams
- New Orleans Saints
- Baltimore Ravens
- Cincinnati Bengals
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- New York Giants
- Philadelphia Eagles
- Los Angeles Chargers
- Minnesota Vikings
- Arizona Cardinals
- Detroit Lions
- Chicago Bears
- Washington Football Team
- Buffalo Bills
- Houston Texans
- Jacksonville Jaguars
- Miami Dolphins
- San Francisco 49ers
- Cleveland Browns
- Indianapolis Colts
- New York Jets
NFL Picks – Week 5
New England at Tampa Bay
Prediction: Patriots 27-19
Pick: Patriots -6
Total: Under 55
Buffalo at Cincinnati
Prediction: Bengals 19-17
Pick: Bills +3
Total: Under 39.5
NY Jets at Cleveland
Prediction: Browns 19-14
Pick: Browns EVEN
Total: Under 39.5
San Francisco at Indianapolis
Prediction: 49ers 20-17
Pick: 49ers +1.5
Total: Under 44.5
Carolina at Detroit
Prediction: Panthers 21-18
Pick: Panthers +2.5
Total: Under 43.5
Tennessee at Miami
Prediction: Titans 24-18
Pick: Titans +1
Total: Over 41.5
LA Chargers at NY Giants
Prediction: Giants 20-19
Pick: Chargers +3.5
Total: Under 45
Arizona at Philadelphia
Prediction: Eagles 19-18
Pick: Cardinals +6.5
Total: Under 45.5
Jacksonville at Pittsburgh
Prediction: Steelers 24-13
Pick: Steelers -8
Total: Under 43
Baltimore at Oakland
Prediction: Raiders 19-18
Pick: Ravens +2.5
Total: Under 39
Seattle at LA Rams
Prediction: Seahawks 18-17
Pick: Seahawks EVEN
Total: Under 46.5
Green Bay at Dallas
Prediction: Packers 24-23
Pick: Packers +2
Total: Under 53
Kansas City at Houston
Prediction: Chiefs 20-15
Pick: Chiefs EVEN
Total: Under 46
Minnesota at Chicago
Prediction: Vikings 15-14
Pick: Bears +3.5
Total: Under 41
Stats in the Wild 