NFL Picks – Week 5

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NFL Picks – Week 4

NFL Rankings – Week 4

  1. New England Patriots
  2. Dallas Cowboys
  3. Pittsburgh Steelers
  4. Green Bay Packers
  5. Atlanta Falcons
  6. Kansas City Chiefs
  7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  8. Philadelphia Eagles
  9. Baltimore Ravens
  10. Oakland Raiders
  11. Seattle Seahawks
  12. Arizona Cardinals
  13. Tennessee Titans
  14. Denver Broncos
  15. Carolina Panthers
  16. Minnesota Vikings
  17. Cincinnati Bengals
  18. Detroit Lions
  19. New York Giants
  20. New Orleans Saints
  21. Los Angeles Chargers
  22. Miami Dolphins
  23. Chicago Bears
  24. Houston Texans
  25. Los Angeles Rams
  26. Cleveland Browns
  27. Jacksonville Jaguars
  28. Washington Football Team
  29. Buffalo Bills
  30. Indianapolis Colts
  31. San Francisco 49ers
  32. New York Jets

NFL Picks – Week 3

NFL Rankings – Week 2

  1. New England Patriots
  2. Pittsburgh Steelers
  3. Atlanta Falcons
  4. Arizona Cardinals
  5. Kansas City Chiefs
  6. Philadelphia Eagles
  7. Green Bay Packers
  8. Seattle Seahawks
  9. Washington Football Team
  10. Detroit Lions
  11. Carolina Panthers
  12. Los Angeles Rams
  13. Houston Texans
  14. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  15. Indianapolis Colts
  16. Minnesota Vikings
  17. Dallas Cowboys
  18. New Orleans Saints
  19. Cincinnati Bengals
  20. Baltimore Ravens
  21. Jacksonville Jaguars
  22. Chicago Bears
  23. Cleveland Browns
  24. Tennessee Titans
  25. Oakland Raiders
  26. Miami Dolphins
  27. New York Giants
  28. San Francisco 49ers
  29. Buffalo Bills
  30. Denver Broncos
  31. Los Angeles Chargers
  32. New York Jets

NFL Picks – Week 2

Triggered – a look at the LSU judge sentencing paper

StatsbyLopez

One of the reasons I love the application of statistics to sports is the unique ways in which sports can help us better understand human behavior.

I was thus excited to read** a working paper out of LSU’s Ozkan Eren and Naci Mocan that looked at how the sentencing of Louisiana judges in juvenile court varied given the performance of the state’s favorite football team, the LSU Tigers. The paper can be read here – alternatively, check out SB Nation’s summary here.

Using regression-based approaches on court decisions between 1996 and 2012, the authors write:

We show that upset losses of the LSU football team increase disposition (sentence) length imposed by judges, and that this effect persists throughout the work week following a Saturday game. On the other hand, losses of games that were expected to be close contests ex-ante, as well as upset wins have no impact. We…

View original post 709 more words

NFL Preview

This model is a bit insane.  But I’m posting it anyway.  Because why not.  New England vs Washington in the Super Bowl.  And the Browns make the playoffs.  You heard it here first.

AFC

East

Patriots 12-4 (11.792)

Bills 8-8 (7.965)

Dolphins 6-10 (6.108)

Jets 5-11 (5.433)

North

Steelers 10-6 (10.374)

Baltimore 8-8 (8.433)

Browns 8-8 (8.280)

Bengals 7-9 (6.942)

South

Titans 9-7 (8.600)

Colts 8-8 (8.260)

Texans 7-9 (6.949)

Jaguars 7-9 (6.932)

West

Chiefs 10-6 (9.691)

Broncos (8-8) 7.599

Raiders 7-9 (6.976)

Chargers 7-9 (6.886)

NFC

East

Washington Football Team 10-6 (9.881)

Eagles 9-7 (9.190)

Cowboys 9-7 (9.084)

Giants 7-9 (7.465)

South

Falcons 10-6 (9.556)

Saints 8-8 (8.143)

Buccaneers 8-8 (7.827)

Panthers 8-8 (7.665)

North

Vikings 9-7 (8.543)

Packers 8-8 (8.203)

Bears 7-9 (6.932)

Lions 7-9 (6.912)

West

Cardinals 10-6 (9.564)

Seahawks 9-7 (9.176)

Rams 6-10 (5.665)

49ers 5-11 (5.072)

Playoffs

AFC

  1. Patriots
  2. Steelers
  3. Chiefs
  4. Titans
  5. Ravens
  6. Browns

NFC

  1. Washington Football Team
  2. Cardinals
  3. Falcons
  4. Vikings
  5. Seahawks
  6. Eagles

Wild Card Round

Chiefs over Browns 22-15

Titans over Ravens 22-20

Falcons over Eagles 28-25

Vikings over Seahawks 22-20

Divisional Round

Patriots over Titans 30-18

Steelers over Chiefs 24-20

Washington Football Team over Vikings 28-21

Cardinals over Falcons 27-26

Conference Championships

Patriots over Steelers 28-22

Washington Football Team over Cardinals 27-22

Super Bowl

Patriots over Washington Football Team 29-23

Rankings

  1. Patriots
  2. Steelers
  3. Washington Football Team
  4. Chiefs
  5. Falcons
  6. Eagles
  7. Cowboys
  8. Cardinals
  9. Seahawks
  10. Vikings
  11. Packers
  12. Ravens
  13. Saints
  14. Titans
  15. Buccaneers
  16. Broncos
  17. Bills
  18. Giants
  19. Browns
  20. Colts
  21. Panthers
  22. Raiders
  23. Chargers
  24. Lions
  25. Texans
  26. Bears
  27. Bengals
  28. Jaguars
  29. Dolphins
  30. Rams
  31. Jets
  32. 49ers

NFL Picks – Week 1

How much water has Harvey dropped? A lot.

As of two days ago, Harvey had dumped around 9 trillion gallons of water.  By yesterday, that number was up to 19 trillion gallons.  And the number is expected to get as high as 25 trillion gallons.

Screen Shot 2017-08-29 at 4.08.43 PM.png

 

25 Trillion!  That’s 25,000,000,000,000.  Gallons of water.  Here is what 1 gallon of water looks like.

Screen Shot 2017-08-29 at 4.17.04 PM

Now take a million of these and dump them from the sky.  Then do THAT 25 million more times.  It’s truly staggering.  It’s literally like a lake of water.

For comparison, I’ve scraped the largest lakes in the US  by volume from wikipedia and visualized them below.  The data from wikipedia is in cubic kilometers, so I converted 25 trillion gallons to about 94.6 cubic kilometers.

Screen Shot 2017-08-29 at 12.39.34 PM.pngHere is Harvey’s output compared to the Great Lakes.  Not that impressive, but the Great Lakes are absolutely massive.  (I can see Lake Michigan out my office window and it basically looks like an ocean.)

lakes1.png

If we look at some smaller lakes, this starts to get outrageous.  25 trillion gallons of water is more than Lake Pend Oreille, Becharof Lake, and the Great Salt Lake.  Like WAY more than the Great Salt Lake.  Like almost 5 Great Salt Lakes!  (Can that even be right?  That must be a mistake.)

lakes2.png

Here is how to donate to help the people of Houston (and avoid scams).

Cheers.

(My code to make this images is here.)