Updated: September 13, 2014
Retro is based only on games played in 2013 and heavily weighs strength of schedule. New Orleans is ranked number 1 based on this as they finished 11-5 and played 10 teams who finished 8-8 or better.
Prosp is based on 4 years of data weighted fro recency. It’s based on expected points with New England ranked number 1 in this measure.
Both Retro and Prosp are framed in terms of the probability of defeating and average team.
predMargin column is the average margin of victory if each team played every other team at home and away. Denver is ranked number 1 in this measure due to their ability and willingness to score a ton of points.
| Team |
Retro |
Prosp |
PredMargin |
W |
L |
| Minnesota |
53 |
50 |
-0.0085 |
1 |
0 |
| Detroit |
53 |
58 |
1.0420 |
1 |
0 |
| Miami |
53 |
39 |
-1.2859 |
1 |
0 |
| NY Jets |
53 |
45 |
-0.6256 |
1 |
0 |
| Carolina |
53 |
62 |
1.4744 |
1 |
0 |
| Buffalo |
52 |
51 |
0.1176 |
1 |
0 |
| Seattle |
52 |
70 |
2.6087 |
1 |
0 |
| Cincinnati |
52 |
53 |
0.3670 |
1 |
0 |
| Denver |
52 |
65 |
1.9273 |
1 |
0 |
| Atlanta |
52 |
60 |
1.2466 |
1 |
0 |
| Tennessee |
52 |
48 |
-0.6841 |
1 |
0 |
| San Francisco |
52 |
67 |
2.1584 |
1 |
0 |
| Philadelphia |
52 |
61 |
1.3724 |
1 |
0 |
| Houston |
52 |
55 |
0.5997 |
1 |
0 |
| Arizona |
51 |
42 |
-0.9491 |
1 |
0 |
| Baltimore |
51 |
51 |
0.2132 |
1 |
1 |
| Chicago |
49 |
55 |
0.7001 |
0 |
1 |
| Pittsburgh |
49 |
40 |
-1.1410 |
1 |
1 |
| San Diego |
49 |
46 |
-0.4598 |
0 |
1 |
| New Orleans |
49 |
64 |
1.8075 |
0 |
1 |
| Green Bay |
48 |
54 |
0.5537 |
0 |
1 |
| New England |
48 |
73 |
3.1073 |
0 |
1 |
| Oakland |
48 |
35 |
-1.8840 |
0 |
1 |
| Cleveland |
48 |
36 |
-1.8181 |
0 |
1 |
| Tampa Bay |
48 |
37 |
-1.5928 |
0 |
1 |
| Kansas City |
48 |
40 |
-1.2260 |
0 |
1 |
| Indianapolis |
47 |
41 |
-1.1321 |
0 |
1 |
| Washington |
47 |
55 |
0.3345 |
0 |
1 |
| Jacksonville |
47 |
29 |
-2.8075 |
0 |
1 |
| St. Louis |
47 |
37 |
-1.6713 |
0 |
1 |
| NY Giants |
47 |
37 |
-1.5413 |
0 |
1 |
| Dallas |
47 |
43 |
-0.8034 |
0 |
1 |
|
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