NFL

Updated: September 13, 2014

Retro is based only on games played in 2013 and heavily weighs strength of schedule.  New Orleans is ranked number 1 based on this as they finished 11-5 and played 10 teams who finished 8-8 or better.

Prosp is based on 4 years of data weighted fro recency.  It’s based on expected points with New England ranked number 1 in this measure.

Both Retro and Prosp are framed in terms of the probability of defeating and average team.

predMargin column is the average margin of victory if each team played every other team at home and away.  Denver is ranked number 1 in this measure due to their ability and willingness to score a ton of points.

 
Team Retro Prosp PredMargin W L
Minnesota 53 50 -0.0085  1 0
Detroit 53 58 1.0420  1 0
Miami 53 39 -1.2859  1 0
NY Jets 53 45 -0.6256  1 0
Carolina 53 62 1.4744  1 0
Buffalo 52 51 0.1176  1 0
Seattle 52 70 2.6087  1 0
Cincinnati 52 53 0.3670  1 0
Denver 52 65 1.9273  1 0
Atlanta 52 60 1.2466  1 0
Tennessee 52 48 -0.6841  1 0
San Francisco 52 67 2.1584  1 0
Philadelphia 52 61 1.3724  1 0
Houston 52 55 0.5997  1 0
Arizona 51 42 -0.9491  1 0
Baltimore 51 51 0.2132  1 1
Chicago 49 55 0.7001  0 1
Pittsburgh 49 40 -1.1410  1 1
San Diego 49 46 -0.4598  0 1
New Orleans 49 64 1.8075  0 1
Green Bay 48 54 0.5537  0 1
New England 48 73 3.1073  0 1
Oakland 48 35 -1.8840  0 1
Cleveland 48 36 -1.8181  0 1
Tampa Bay 48 37 -1.5928  0 1
Kansas City 48 40 -1.2260  0 1
Indianapolis 47 41 -1.1321  0 1
Washington 47 55 0.3345  0 1
Jacksonville 47 29 -2.8075  0 1
St. Louis 47 37 -1.6713  0 1
NY Giants 47 37 -1.5413  0 1
Dallas 47 43 -0.8034  0 1

 

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