Week 10 NFL Probabilities


Well, that was an interesting week. The Cowboys loss to the Saints paired with the Eagles win over the Packers shook up the playoff races a bit. The Cowboys and Eagles are now almost tied in playoff probability, while the Packers now are behind the Lions. Meanwhile, the Saints win keeps them ahead of the Panthers, who have been charging towards a playoff spot. So, the take home message of last week is “what a bloody mess the NFC East is.”

Speaking of messes how about this race for the sixth AFC spot? It ain’t often that the biggest win comes from not playing, but them Jets and Browns, sitting idle for the bye really, really benefited from an atrocious week from their competitors. The Titans losing to the Jaguars, the Chargers dropping their second straight, and the Dolphins losing to the woeful Buccaneers. The Ravens got a bump from a win over the Bengals, the only question for Baltimore is whether it will be a serious turn around for the Ravens or just a dead cat bounce from all the other sucking going on in the AFC Wild Card race.

In terms of the overall picture, this week was good for people who want to see actual races. As, in terms of the numbers, we went from one real race (NFC North) to two (now the NFC East- Seriously, look at the change in the NFC East graph there!). And by race, I  actually mean divisions where whoever loses will sit out (obviously, the AFC West and NFC South are in play, but the losers will still probably be making the playoffs.) The Eagles/Cowboys, and the Packers/Lions/Bears all could be sitting on keisters come January. Mathematically, the 49ers are also on the bubble, but right now, they’re better off than the rest of those jokers, especially since the Saints represent one of only two winning teams they have on their schedule (the Seahawks, being the other.)

Looking forward to Week 11, Broncos/Chiefs doesn’t really affect the races, only who has a shot at home field advantage (as will their second game in week 13.) With the Cowboys on bye, the Eagles get to play poor, poor Washington and can take the reins in the NFC East. The Packers and Lions both play crappy teams, and if this season has a theme it’s “which team will fall on their face against the much worse team.” The Saints play the Niners while the Panthers play the Pats, so neither has that easy of a game ahead of them. The Jets get the Bills, so they should win, and probably won’t. The Browns play their division leaders, so I assume they’ll lose. The Titans play the Colts, so that won’t be easy either.

So, for the betting public, bet on teams that seem good to lose against the teams that should not win. Unless this week, the teams that should win do win. Then bet that way. Or be extra safe, and bet on both teams. YOU LITERALLY CANNOT LOSE THAT WAY!

Posted on November 13, 2013, in Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink. Leave a comment.

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