An NHL shootout lasted 20 rounds. How improbable was it
Tonight’s Panthers/Capitals game lasted an improbable 20 rounds, with the teams recording the following round by round outcomes (X for misses, 0 for goals)
Washington: X X X O X X O X X O O X X X X X O X X X
Florida: X X X O X X O X X O O X X X X X O X X O
Estimating the likelihood of a shootout reaching 20 rounds is actually fairly straightforward, provided that you make some reasonable assumptions.
Assumption 1: The save percentage for each goalie is 67%.
For starters, the overall NHL save rate on shootouts is about 67%. And while I have made the point that not all NHL goalies are created equal in terms of stopping shootout attempts, in this game, both Florida goalie Roberto Luongo (67.3% save rate) and Washington counterpart Braden Holtby (66.0%) are nearly identical to…
View original post 485 more words