Stat pundit rankings: 2014 NFL win over/unders
TeamRankings really crushed it this year. Also, my mean absolute error was 2.25 and mean squared error was 7.05.
We are back for another edition of the stat pundit rankings, where we rank the accuracy of different predictions for team wins from statistics or simulation based websites. Team Rankings boasted the best performance last year, outperforming competitors and the totals set by sportsbooks as far as predicting 2013 regular season win totals.
Let’s meet our competitors for 2014:
Team Rankings (TR), predictions listed here
Accuscore (AS), predictions emailed by a loyal reader
FiveThirtyEight (538), predictions extracted the week before the regular season began (missing link)
Prediction Machine (PM), predictions listed here, released just after the season began
Football Outsiders (FO), projections listed here from just before the season began
Aggregate, the average statheads predictions from the five sites above
Finally, we will want to compare all the projections to lines set by sportsbooks. To do so, I used the implied lines used by Seth Burn in his…
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