A generalized linear mixed model approach to estimating fumble frequencies in the National Football League
The Patriots aren’t that much better at not fumbling than other NFL teams. The Patriots also probably cheated. Totally different things.
I told myself I was done with with Deflategate – and really, I was – that is, until I read this.
“Now I actually have some validation in the field,” Sharp said. “‘Hey, this guy was right all along.'”
Forget the data twisting and statistical errors of the original analysis. The author claims to be vindicated by the fact that the Wells report found Patriots quarterback Tom Brady to be ‘more likely than not’ to have been involved with the deflation of footballs.
But despite my skepticism regarding Sharp’s analysis, two of the brightest minds in football analytics also taken the time to look at Patriots fumble rates, eventually concluding that the Patriots were indeed outliers.
First, after comparing Sharp’s critics to Nabisco running a study on snack cookies**, Brian Burke used multiple linear regression to model the number of fumbles in each NFL game since 2000, finding that the Pats…
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