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A generalized linear mixed model approach to estimating fumble frequencies in the National Football League

The Patriots aren’t that much better at not fumbling than other NFL teams. The Patriots also probably cheated. Totally different things.

statsbylopez's avatarStatsbyLopez

I told myself I was done with with Deflategate – and really, I was – that is, until I read this.

“Now I actually have some validation in the field,” Sharp said. “‘Hey, this guy was right all along.’”

Wait, what?

Forget the data twisting and statistical errors of the original analysis. The author claims to be vindicated by the fact that the Wells report found Patriots quarterback Tom Brady to be ‘more likely than not’ to have been involved with the deflation of footballs.

Okay then.*

*******

But despite my skepticism regarding Sharp’s analysis, two of the brightest minds in football analytics also taken the time to look at Patriots fumble rates, eventually concluding that the Patriots were indeed outliers.

First, after comparing Sharp’s critics to Nabisco running a study on snack cookies**, Brian Burke used multiple linear regression to model the number of fumbles in each NFL game since 2000, finding that the Pats…

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2 responses to “A generalized linear mixed model approach to estimating fumble frequencies in the National Football League”

  1. Eric Orr Avatar
    Eric Orr

    There is still no evidence that second-hand smoke causes cancer. Cancer rates are iffy things and the amount of second hand smoke one would have to be exposed to is likely ludicrously implausible for a non-smoker to see cancer rates increase. Smokers see no increase in cancer rates until somewhere around 15 pack years (around 110,000 cigs).

    This has more to do with over-emphasis on cancer compared to other vastly more common health effects caused by smoking. Plus controlling of environmental variables is hard with smoking analysis, wood smoke is order of magnitudes more likely to cause cancer, rayon exposure and other stuff like that.

    Reply
    1. statsinthewild Avatar
      statsinthewild

      Well, the National Cancer Institute would disagree with you: http://www.cancer.gov/about-cancer/causes-prevention/risk/tobacco/second-hand-smoke-fact-sheet#q4

      Reply

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