Category Archives: Uncategorized
Matching to estimate the causal effects of firing an NFL coach
I want to be Mike Lopez when I grow up.
Note: This post is a bit longer than usual. It’s part tutorial and part analysis. Feel free to jump to the conclusions, which are (I think) quite interesting. Additionally, the data and code are posted on Github.
The 2016 NFL regular season has ended, and with it has come the usual coaching carousel in which many franchises have opted to fire their head coach.
As of January 2nd, six of the league’s 32 teams have openings, with five of those coming by way of a fired predecessor (Denver’s retiring Gary Kubiak being the lone exception). But it’s not like 2016 is any type of outlier; roughly 4 coaches per year have been canned since the early 1980’s.
What’s interesting, though, is that despite the frequent, franchise-altering decisions made across the league, it’s mostly unknown whether or not this choice benefits longterm franchise prospects. (Postscript: Today, Brian Burke looks at the…
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NFL Picks – Week 17
New Orleans at Atlanta
Prediction: Falcons 32-29 (59.4%)
Pick: Saints +7
Total: Over 56
Baltimore at Cincinnati
Prediction: Bengals 22-20 (53.9%)
Pick: Ravens +2.5
Total: Over 41.5
Oakland at Denver
Prediction: Broncos 22-20 (54.1%)
Pick: Raiders +2.5
Total: Over 40.5
Green Bay at Detroit
Prediction: Packers 24-22 (55.5%)
Pick: Lions +3
Total: Under 47
Jacksonville at Indianapolis
Prediction: Colts 26-21 (62.1%)
Pick: Colts -4.5
Total: Under 47
New England at Miami
Prediction: Patriots 26-21 (63.4%)
Pick: Dolphins +9.5
Total: Over 44.5
Chicago at Minnesota
Prediction: Vikings 22-17 (65.1%)
Pick: Bears +5.5
Total: Under 41
Buffalo at NY Jets
Prediction: Bills 23-21 (57.0%)
Pick: Jets +6
Total: Under 44
Dallas at Philadelphia
Prediction: Cowboys 23-22 (51.4%)
Pick: Cowboys +6.5
Total: Over 42.5
Cleveland at Pittsburgh
Prediction: Steelers 27-17 (77.6%)
Pick: Steelers -7
Total: Over 44
Kansas City at San Diego
Prediction: Chiefs 23-22 (52.7%)
Pick: Chargers +4.5
Total: Over 45
Seattle at San Francisco
Prediction: Seahawks 24-18 (67.3%)
Pick: 49ers +9.5
Total: Under 43
Arizona at Los Angeles (nee St. Louis)
Prediction: Cardinals 21-16 (63.3%)
Pick: Rams +6
Total: Under 41.5
Carolina at Tampa Bay
Prediction: Panthers 23-22 (53.2%)
Pick: Panthers +6.5
Total: Under 46.5
Houston at Tennessee
Prediction: Titans 20-19 (52.8%)
Pick: Texans +3
Total: Under 40
NY Giants at Washington
Prediction: Washington Football Team 26-23 (57.9%)
Pick: Giants +8
Total: Over 44
NFL Picks – Week 16
Miami at Buffalo
Prediction: Bills 24-20 (60.1%)
Pick: Bills -3.5
Total: Over 42
Atlanta at Carolina
Prediction: Panthers 26-25 (52.0%)
Pick: Panthers +3.5
Total: Under 52.5
Washington at Chicago
Prediction: Bears 25-24 (50.5%)
Pick: Bears +3.5
Total: Over 47
San Diego at Cleveland
Prediction: Chargers 24-21 (58.3%)
Pick: Browns +6
Total: Over 44
Minnesota at Green Bay
Prediction: Packers 23-18 (63.8%)
Pick: Vikings +6.5
Total: Under 43
Cincinnati at Houston
Prediction: Bengals 21-20 (51.6%)
Pick: Bengals +2 PUSH
Total: Under 41
Tennessee at Jacksonville
Prediction: Titans 22-21 (52.4%)
Pick: Jaguars +4.5
Total: Under 44
Denver at Kansas City
Prediction: Chiefs 19-18 (51.4%)
Pick: Broncos +4
Total: Under 37.5
NY Jets at New England
Prediction: Patriots 28-18 (74.8%)
Pick: Jets +16.5
Total: Over 44 PUSH
Tampa Bay at New Orleans
Prediction: Saints 30-25 (64.1%)
Pick: Saints -3
Total: Over 52.5
Indianapolis at Oakland
Prediction: Raiders 27-25 (58.0%)
Pick: Colts +3.5
Total: Under 53
NY Giants at Philadelphia
Prediction: Eagles 22-18 (59.5%)
Pick: Eagles +2.5
Total: Under 41.5
Baltimore at Pittsburgh
Prediction: Steelers 22-18 (59.2%)
Pick: Ravens +5
Total: Under 44
Arizona at Seattle
Prediction: Seahawks 22-19 (59.0%)
Pick: Cardinals +8
Total: Under 43.5
San Francisco at Los Angeles (nee St. Louis)
Prediction: Rams 20-18 (56.2%)
Pick: 49ers +3.5
Total: Under 43.5
Detroit at Dallas
Prediction: Cowboys 26-21 (62.5%)
Pick: Lions +7
Total: Over 43
RIPPEN 2016
So a few years ago, I proposed a measure of quarterback performance called RIPPEN, but I haven’t kept up with the updating of it. Today, I had some time so I updated it for the past few years (with some new modifications). Below are the the results ordered from best to worst in 2016.
So right now I have Ryan, Brady, and Prescott as the top three passers in the league. I’d say that makes reasonable sense. One of my favorite parts of this table is Eli Manning, who has dropped in all four years presented here. Poor Eli. Alternatively, you’ll notice that Brady has gotten better in all 4 years listed here. Really amazing. Considering he’s 39 years old. (Side note: I’m 34 and I feel old. This guy is 5 years older than I am and is one of the best athletes on the planet. Dammit.)
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One other interesting aspect of RIPPEN is that you get parameters estimates for the gamma distribution of lengths of completed passed. Below is a plot of the alpha and beta parameters estimated for each player. You may recall from your mathematical statistics course, that the mean of the gamma distribution is alpha times beta. So I’ve plotted lines corresponding to combinations of the parameters that result in the same mean. So for instance, Kaepernick and Luck have about the same expected value for the yardage of a completed pass, but they do it in different ways. There are a bunch of quarterbacks in the middle, so let’s zoom in for a closer look at that part of the graph.
From here, we can see that there seems to be a pretty elite group of quarterbacks with means over 14 including Rivers, Brady, Ryan, and Mariota.
To get an idea of how these parameters change the gamma distribution, let’s look at Prescott, Brady, and Tannehill. The plot below is the cdf function for Prescott (blue), Brady (red), and Tannehill (green). The way this plot is read is for a specific value of yardage, the height of the curve is the probability that a pass is LESS than that specific yardage. So, for instance, Tannehill has the highest probability of a completed pass being less than 5 yards (recall we are only looking at completed passes here). And Brady’s probability is just slightly higher than Prescott’s at 5. However, somewhere around 10 yards Prescott and Brady switch. So Prescott is more likely to have a pass that is less than 20 yards than Brady is (i.e. Brady is more likely to have a completed pass go for long yardage). We can check to see how these estimated curves line up with reality by looking at the histograms of the actual data.
Here Brady is red and Prescott is again blue, we can see that Brady is more likely to have passes in the 0-5 yard range, whereas prescott is more likely than Brady to have passes in the 10-20 range, but then Brady is more likely to have passes in the 30-40 range whereas Prescott has very few completed passes over 30 yards.
Kinds neat stuff. I’m going to do something else now.
Cheers.
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NFL Picks – Week 15
Los Angeles (nee St. Louis) at Seattle
Prediction: Seahawks 24-16 (71.3%)
Pick: Rams +15
Total: Over 38.5
New Orleans at Arizona
Prediction: Cardinals 26-24 (58.1%)
Pick: Saints +2.5
Total: Over 50
San Francisco at Atlanta
Prediction: Falcons 26-21 (64.7%)
Pick: 49ers +13.5
Total: Under 51.5
Philadelphia at Baltimore
Prediction: Ravens 23-22 (54.9%)
Pick: Eagles +6
Total: Over 41.5
Cleveland at Buffalo
Prediction: Bills 24-18 (65.9%)
Pick: Browns +10
Total: Under 42.5
Green Bay at Chicago
Prediction: Packers 24-21 (57.0%)
Pick: Bears +6.5
Total: Over 42.5
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati
Prediction: Bengals 24-22 (53.1%)
Pick: Bengals +3.5
Total: Over 44 PUSH
Tampa Bay at Dallas
Prediction: Cowboys 24-20 (61.5%)
Pick: Buccaneers +7
Total: Under 46 PUSH
New England at Denver
Prediction: Broncos 23-22 (50.9%)
Pick: Broncos +3
Total: Over 44
Jacksonville at Houston
Prediction: Texans 23-18 (63.4%)
Pick: Jaguars +6
Total: Over 39
Tennessee at Kansas City
Prediction: Chiefs 24-19 (63.5%)
Pick: Titans +5.5
Total: Under 43
Indianapolis at Minnesota
Prediction: Vikings 23-21 (56.4%)
Pick: Colts +4
Total: Under 44.5
Detroit at NY Giants
Prediction: Giants 23-22 (55.0%)
Pick: Lions +4.5
Total: Over 41.5
Miami at NY Jets
Prediction: Jets 22-20 (55.8%)
Pick: Jets +2.5
Total: Over 38
Oakland at San Diego
Prediction: Chargers 24-22 (56.1%)
Pick: Chargers +3 PUSH
Total: Under 50
Carolina at Washington
Prediction: Panthers 23-22 (52.2%)
Pick: Panthers +6.5
Total: Under 51
NFL Rankings – Week 13
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NFL Strengths by week:
NFL Picks – Week 14
Oakland at Kansas City
Prediction: Chiefs 24-20 (61.1%)
Pick: Chiefs -3
Total: Under 47
Pittsburgh at Buffalo
Prediction: Bills 22-21 (50.4%)
Pick: Bills +2
Total: Under 47 PUSH
San Diego at Carolina
Prediction: Panthers 25-21 (62.3%)
Pick: Panthers -1
Total: Under 48.5
Cincinnati at Cleveland
Prediction: Bengals 24-20 (60.0%)
Pick: Browns +6
Total: Over 43.5
Chicago at Detroit
Prediction: Lions 24-20 (59.5%)
Pick: Bears +8
Total: Over 43.5
Seattle at Green Bay
Prediction: Packers 22-21 (50.7%)
Pick: Packers +2.5
Total: Under 46.5
Houston at Indianapolis
Prediction: Colts 23-21 (53.8%)
Pick: Texans +4.5
Total: Under 46.5
Minnesota at Jacksonville
Prediction: Vikings 21-19 (54.3%)
Pick: Jaguars +3.5
Total: Over 39.5
Arizona at Miami
Prediction: Cardinals 23-21 (53.8%)
Pick: Cardinals +2
Total:Over 43.5
Washington at Philadelphia
Prediction: Eagles 26-23 (57.4%)
Pick: Eagles +1
Total: Over 46.5
NY Jets at San Francisco
Prediction: Jets 21-20 (50.5%)
Pick: Jets +1
Total: Under 46.5
Atlanta at Los Angeles (nee St. Louis)
Prediction: Falcons 22-21 (52.6%)
Pick: Rams +6
Total: Under 45.5
New Orleans at Tampa Bay
Prediction: Saints 25-24 (51.8%)
Pick: Saints +2.5
Total:Under 51.5
Denver at Tennessee
Prediction: Broncos 23-20 (57.5%)
Pick: Broncos +1
Total:Under 43.5
Dallas at NY Giants
Prediction: Giants 23-22 (52.1%)
Pick: Giants +3
Total: Under 47.5
Baltimore at New England
Prediction: Patriots 26-20 (64.8%)
Pick: Ravens +7 PUSH
Total: Over 45.5
Predicted NFL standings and playoff projections – Week 13
Projected Standings
AFC
AFC East
New England: 12-4 (9-2) 11.82
Buffalo: 9-7 (6-5) 8.949
Miami: 8-8 (7-4) 8.549
NY Jets: 6-10 (3-8) 5.542
AFC North
Pittsburgh: 8-8 (6-5) 8.401
Baltimore: 7-9 (6-5) 7.045
Cincinnati: 6-9-1 (3-7-1) 6.112
Cleveland: 1-15 (0-12) 0.788
AFC South
Houston: 7-9 (6-5) 7.457
Indianapolis: 7-9 (5-6) 7.401
Tennessee: 7-9 (6-6) 7.348
Jacksonville: 3-13 (2-9) 3.52
AFC West
Kansas City: 10-6 (8-3) 10.101
Oakland: 10-6 (9-2) 9.916
Denver: 9-7 (7-4) 9.362
San Diego: 8-8 (5-6) 7.698
NFC
NFC East
Dallas: 13-3 (11-1) 12.759
NY Giants: 9-7 (8-3) 9.145
Washington: 8-7-1 (6-4-1) 8.120
Philadelphia: 7-9 (5-6) 6.577
NFC North
Detroit: 8-8 (7-4) 8.139
Minnesota: 8-8 (6-6) 7.942
Green Bay: 7-9 (5-6) 7.394
Chicago: 4-12 (2-9) 3.982
NFC South
Atlanta: 10-6 (7-4) 9.896
New Orleans: 8-8 (5-6) 7.802
Carolina: 7-9 (4-7) 7.149
Tampa Bay: 6-10 (6-5) 6.350
NFC West
Seattle: 10-5-1 (7-3-1) 10.232
Arizona: 7-8-1 (4-6-1) 7.46
Los Angeles (nee St. Louis): 6-10 (4-7) 5.565
San Francisco: 1-15 (1-10) 1.479
Team – Median Predicted Record (Actual Record) Expected Wins
Italics: Projected playoff team
Projected Playoffs
AFC
- New England
- Kansas City
- Pittsburgh
- Houston
- Oakland
- Denver
NFC
- Dallas
- Seattle
- Atlanta
- Detroit
- NY Giants
- Washington
Wildcard Round
(6) Denver over (3) Pittsburgh
(4) Houston over (5) Oakland
(3) Atlanta over (6) Washington
(4) Detroit over (5) NY Giants
Divisional Round
(1) New England over (6) Denver
(2) Kansas City over (4) Houston
(1) Dallas over (4) Detroit
(2) Seattle over (3) Atlanta
Conference Championships
(1) New England over (2) Kansas City
(2) Seattle over (1) Dallas
Super Bowl
(2) Seattle over (1) New England
NFL Playoff Probabilities – Week 13
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Stats in the Wild 