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Talk at Columbia Business School
People are idiots.
I spoke this morning about prediction algorithms and NCAA basketball for Mark Brodie’s class at Columbia’s Business School. Also speaking was Ed Kaplan of Operations Research fame.
Here are my slides, much of which was built from joint work with Greg in the Kaggle contest. There are also extensions to other things in life that I like, such as upset pools, game theory, and extensions/extrapolations to sports analytics as a whole.
Getting rid of Algebra II from high school and college curricula is an insane suggestion
I recently (as in just now) read an article on Slate called “Down with Algebra II” where the author Dana Goldstein presents an argument by political scientist Andrew Hacker that we should replace “algebra II and calculus in the high school and college curriculum with a practical course in statistics for citizenship”. (I’m all for a required course in statistics for citizenship! But not at the cost of Algebra II). Further, this article states in the subtitle (emphasis added): “It [Algebra II] drives dropout rates and is mostly useless in real life.” I vehemently disagree with this.
First of all, let me refresh your memory on some of the topics in Algebra II:
- Functions
- Complex numbers
- Polynomials
- Radical equations
- Exponential growth and decay
- Logarithmic functions
- Basic Trigonometry
Let’s just take a few of these here and think about how these practically affect your everyday life as an adult:
Functions: The amount you pay in taxes is a piece-wise linear function. (Unless Ted Cruz is elected and imposes a flat tax and abolished the IRS!) I’d say taxes are pretty relevant to your everyday life. Unless you plan on making very little money at your job (which is probably because you failed Algebra II…..)
Exponential growth: Do you want to retire ever? Exponential growth governs how money grows over time. Understanding this is foundational to financial literacy.
As for the others, if you don’t make students learn these things in high school (i.e. polynomials, complex numbers, trigonometry) you are shutting the door to a HUGE variety of occupations at a pretty early stage in life. And if you ask a 15 year old if they want to take Algebra II or not, basically every one of them is going to say no. As adults, especially adults in 2016, we shouldn’t let that happen.
So I refuse to buy the argument that math, especially Algebra II is “useless in real life”. Beyond that, Hacker seems to basically be arguing that “math is hard so let’s not make students learn it”. Can you imagine this argument for reading? Reading is hard for some students, but if we get rid of reading more students could surely graduate from college! And then all of a sudden, presto, higher college graduation rates! (I understand comparing math (i.e. Algebra II) to reading isn’t a perfect analogy, but I do believe that both are non-negotiable parts of a high school educations.)
Another thing I found odd about the article was the authors example of derivatives, which are never found in an algebra II curriculum. It’s part of calculus, which usually doesn’t follow algebra II directly (e.g. I took a course called “pre-calculus” between Algebra II and Calculus). This makes me wonder how strong a grasp the author has on the differences in the curriculums between these courses and what the author and Hacker consider to be “advanced math”. Algebra II is not advanced math.
I will say, for the record, I don’t think everyone needs to know calculus. But, and I’ll say this again, the idea of someone graduating from college without getting through Algebra II is completely insane. I don’t know how else to put it. It’s so insane I went back and re-read the article to make sure I wasn’t being trolled, and I checked the date and it’s not April 1. This argument is simply insane.
Finally, I will be the first to admit that I really like reading Slate, but I do find a lot of their education coverage, especially of STEM topics to be a little weak from time to time.
Please tell me why you’re mad at me in the comments below.
Cheers.
Super Bowl Prediction
Denver vs Carolina
Prediction: Denver 23-22
Side: Denver +5.5
Total: Over 44.5
Cheers.
Maybe Doug Pederson wasn’t asinine after all
Anything that is not “conventional” wisdom gets mocked in the NFL. Until it becomes conventional wisdom and you get mocked for not doing it.
Former Kansas City offensive coordinator Doug Pederson is receiving a ton of flack in NFL circles for his passive approach to the end of Saturday’s Divisional Round contest at New England.
Down a pair of touchdowns, Kansas City, with Pederson calling plays, methodically moved the ball down the field midway through the fourth quarter, eventually scoring with less than two minutes remaining. Throughout the drive, the Chiefs took their time.
“It took us time because No. 1, we did not want to give [Patriots QB] Tom Brady the ball back,’’ said Pederson.
The Chiefs preferred strategy, it appears, was to score a touchdown, recover an onside kick, and score the equalizer. This was preferred over an earlier touchdown and a traditional kickoff.
In the aftermath of Kansas City’s loss, Pederson’s comment has been ridiculed as the worst answer ever, as well as senseless. That was my instinct, too…
View original post 190 more words
NFL Picks – Divisional Round
Week 4 – SU: 10-5 ATS: 9-6 O/U: 9-6
Week 5 – SU: 7-7 ATS: 9-4-1 O/U: 6-8
Week 6 – SU: 12-2 ATS: 9-4-1 O/U: 8-6
Week 7 – SU: 10-4 ATS: 6-8 O/U: 10-4
Week 8 – SU: 9-5 ATS: 7-5-2 O/U: 7-7
Week 9 – SU: 8-5 ATS: 5-8 O/U: 8-5
Week 10 – SU: 5-9 ATS: 8-6 O/U: 9-3-2
Week 11 – SU: 10-4 ATS: 6-7-1 O/U: 7-7
Week 12 – SU: 10-6 ATS: 9-7 O/U: 8-8
Week 13 – SU: 9-6 ATS: 7-8 O/U: 9-6
Week 14 – SU: 8-4 ATS: 7-5 O/U: 8-4
Week 15 – SU: 10-6 ATS: 7-8-1 O/U: 7-8-1
Week 16 – SU: 8-8 ATS: 9-7 O/U: 7-8-1
WC Round– SU: 3-1 ATS: 2-2 O/U: 1-3
Pittsburgh at Denver
Prediction: Broncos 26-22
Pick: Steelers +7
Total: Over 39
Kansas City at New England
Prediction: Patriots 25-21
Pick: Chiefs +5
Total: Over 42
Seattle at Carolina
Prediction: Seahawks 21-19
Pick: Seahawks +2
Total: Under 44
Green Bay at Arizona
Prediction: Packers 23-22
Pick: Under 50
Total: Packers +7
Introduction to openWAR Package, Part 1
Ben Baumer and Greg Matthews have a relatively new R package openWAR that facilitates calculation of WAR based on methodology from their recently published paper in the Journal of Quantitative Analysis of Sports. See their github site for a description of installing the package.
One attractive feature of the openWAR package is that it allows for downloading of MLBAM GameDay play-by-play data. Recently, I illustrated the use of the retrosheet package to download similar data from Retrosheet. We’ll see that the data frames that we get from MLBAM GameDay contain many more variables that facilitate developing interesting analysis.
In this post, I illustrate the downloading of play-by-play data, illustrate run expectancy calculations, and use the MLBAM GameDay data to show the locations of all in-play events for specific players.
Downloading MLBAM data
Once you have loaded the openWAR package, downloading data is remarkably easy. For example, to download all GameDay…
View original post 567 more words
NFL Picks – Wildcard Round
Week 4 – SU: 10-5 ATS: 9-6 O/U: 9-6
Week 5 – SU: 7-7 ATS: 9-4-1 O/U: 6-8
Week 6 – SU: 12-2 ATS: 9-4-1 O/U: 8-6
Week 7 – SU: 10-4 ATS: 6-8 O/U: 10-4
Week 8 – SU: 9-5 ATS: 7-5-2 O/U: 7-7
Week 9 – SU: 8-5 ATS: 5-8 O/U: 8-5
Week 10 – SU: 5-9 ATS: 8-6 O/U: 9-3-2
Week 11 – SU: 10-4 ATS: 6-7-1 O/U: 7-7
Week 12 – SU: 10-6 ATS: 9-7 O/U: 8-8
Week 13 – SU: 9-6 ATS: 7-8 O/U: 9-6
Week 14 – SU: 8-4 ATS: 7-5 O/U: 8-4
Week 15 – SU: 10-6 ATS: 7-8-1 O/U: 7-8-1
Week 16 – SU: 8-8 ATS: 9-7 O/U: 7-8-1
WC Round– SU: 3-1 ATS: 2-2 O/U: 1-3
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati
Prediction: Bengals 24-22
Pick: Bengals +3
Total: Over 45.5
Kansas City at Houston
Prediction: Chiefs 21-20
Pick: Texans +3
Total: Over 40
Seattle at Minnesota
Prediction: Seahawks 22-18
Pick: Seahawks -3.5
Total: Over 39.5
Green Bay at Washington
Prediction: Packers 25-21
Pick: Packers -1
Total: Over 45
NFL Picks – Week 17
Week 2 – SU: 8-8 ATS: 9-7 O/U: 9-7
Week 3 – SU: 10-6 ATS: 2-14 O/U: 7-8-1
Week 4 – SU: 10-5 ATS: 9-6 O/U: 9-6
Week 5 – SU: 7-7 ATS: 9-4-1 O/U: 6-8
Week 6 – SU: 12-2 ATS: 9-4-1 O/U: 8-6
Week 7 – SU: 10-4 ATS: 6-8 O/U: 10-4
Week 8 – SU: 9-5 ATS: 7-5-2 O/U: 7-7
Week 9 – SU: 8-5 ATS: 5-8 O/U: 8-5
Week 10 – SU: 5-9 ATS: 8-6 O/U: 9-3-2
Week 11 – SU: 10-4 ATS: 6-7-1 O/U: 7-7
Week 12 – SU: 10-6 ATS: 9-7 O/U: 8-8
Week 13 – SU: 9-6 ATS: 7-8 O/U: 9-6
Week 14 – SU: 8-4 ATS: 7-5 O/U: 8-4
Week 15 – SU: 10-6 ATS: 7-8-1 O/U: 7-8-1
Week 16 – SU: 8-8 ATS: 9-7 O/U: 7-8-1
NY Jets at Buffalo
Prediction: Bills 21-19
Pick: Bills +3
Total: Under 41.5
Tampa Bay at Carolina
Prediction: Panthers 24-18
Pick: Buccaneers +11
Total: Under 46
New England at Miami
Prediction: Patriots 26-22
Pick: Dolphins +9.5
Total: Over 47
Baltimore at Cincinnati
Prediction: Bengals 23-20
Pick: Ravens +9.5
Total: Over 41.5
New Orleans at Atlanta
Prediction: Falcons 27-26
Pick: Falcons +5.5
Total: Over 52.5
Jacksonville at Houston
Prediction: Texans 24-18
Pick: Texans -5.5
Total: Under 45.5
Pittsburgh at Cleveland
Prediction: Steelers 24-22
Pick: Browns +11
Total: Under 47
Oakland at Kansas City
Prediction: Chiefs 24-18
Pick: Raiders +7
Total: Under 43.5
Tennessee at Indianapolis
Prediction: Colts 25-20
Pick: Titans +6
Total: Over 41.5
Washington at Dallas
Prediction: Cowboys 24-20
Pick: Dallas -4
Total: Over 39.5
Detroit at Chicago
Prediction: Bears 23-22
Pick: Bears EVEN
Total: Under 46.5
Philadelphia at NY Giants
Prediction: Giants 25-24
Pick: Eagles +4
Total: Under 51
Minnesota at Green Bay
Prediction: Packers 25-20
Pick: Packers -3
Total: Under 45.5
San Diego at Denver
Prediction: Broncos 26-21
Pick: Chargers +9
Total: Over 41
St. Louis at San Francisco
Prediction: 49ers 21-18
Pick: 49ers +3.5
Total: Over 37.5
Seattle at Arizona
Prediction: Seahawks 22-20
Pick: Seahawks +6.5
Total: Under 47
NFL Picks – Week 16
Total (weeks 1-16) – SU: 136-87 ATS: 112-105-1 O/U: 121-96-2
Week 1 – SU: 10-6 ATS: 10-6 O/U: 11-5
Week 2 – SU: 8-8 ATS: 9-7 O/U: 9-7
Week 3 – SU: 10-6 ATS: 2-14 O/U: 7-8-1
Week 4 – SU: 10-5 ATS: 9-6 O/U: 9-6
Week 5 – SU: 7-7 ATS: 9-4-1 O/U: 6-8
Week 6 – SU: 12-2 ATS: 9-4-1 O/U: 8-6
Week 7 – SU: 10-4 ATS: 6-8 O/U: 10-4
Week 8 – SU: 9-5 ATS: 7-5-2 O/U: 7-7
Week 9 – SU: 8-5 ATS: 5-8 O/U: 8-5
Week 10 – SU: 5-9 ATS: 8-6 O/U: 9-3-2
Week 11 – SU: 10-4 ATS: 6-7-1 O/U: 7-7
Week 12 – SU: 10-6 ATS: 9-7 O/U: 8-8
Week 13 – SU: 9-6 ATS: 7-8 O/U: 9-6
Week 14 – SU: 8-4 ATS: 7-5 O/U: 8-4
Week 15 – SU: 10-6 ATS: 7-8-1 O/U: 7-8-1
Week 16 – SU: 8-8 ATS: 9-7 O/U: 7-8-1
San Diego at Oakland
Prediction: Chargers 23-22
Pick: Chargers +5.5
Total: Under 46
Washington at Philadelphia
Prediction: Eagles 26-22
Pick: Eagles -3
Total: Under 49
NY Giants at Minnesota
Prediction: Vikings 24-21
Pick: Giants +7
Total: Over 44
Chicago at Tampa Bay
Prediction: Buccaneers 22-21
Pick: Bears +3
Total: Under 44
Carolina at Atlanta
Prediction: Panthers 23-22
Pick: Falcons +6.5
Total: Under 47.5
Dallas at Buffalo
Prediction: Bills 22-20
Pick: Cowboys +6.5
Total: Over 42
Jacksonville at New Orleans
Prediction: Saints 28-21
Pick: Saints -2.5
Total: Under 52.5
San Francisco at Detroit
Prediction: Lions 22-20
Pick: 49ers +9.5
Total: Under 42
Cleveland at Kansas City
Prediction: Chiefs 24-19
Pick: Browns +11.5
Total: Over 42
Indianapolis at Miami
Prediction: Dolphins 24-22
Pick: Colts +2
Total: Over 44
New England at NY Jets
Prediction: Patriots 24-21
Pick: Patriots -2.5
Total: Over 45
Houston at Tennessee
Prediction: Texans 22-20
Pick: Tennessee +3.5
Total: Over 39.5
Green Bay at Arizona
Prediction: Packers 23-22
Pick: Packers +5.5
Total: Under 51
St. Louis at Seattle
Prediction: Seahawks 24-15
Pick: Rams +12
Total: Under 40 PUSH
Pittsburgh at Baltimore
Prediction: Ravens 23-22
Pick: Ravens +10
Total: Under 47
Cincinnati at Denver
Prediction: Broncos 24-21
Pick: Bengals +3.5
Total: Over 39.5
Presidential Debate Word Clouds, etc.
I started to make ONE word cloud of the presidential debate tonight, but then I just kept going and I made them for six of the debates. My main motivation was to see how many times the democrats said the word “coalition” tonight (Answer: 22). The word clouds contain all words that were mentioned (by either a candidate or a moderator) at least 20 times with blue for Democrat and red for GOP. I’ve tried to exclude the moderators names and candidates who were in the particular debate (i.e. Trump won’t show up in the Republican word cloud, but he could show up in the Democratic one) though I will admit I didn’t clean this as thoroughly as I would usually because I just wanted to post something tonight. I also decided not to do stemming for those of you who are interested in that type of detail because I didn’t want, for example, “secretari”showing up the word cloud.
Notes:
- The candidates/moderators love talking about “people”.
- The most notable change over time is the use of the word “ISIS”. In the Democratic debate on 10/13/2015 “ISIS” was mentioned 4 times. On 12/19/2015 it was mentioned 55 times. In the 4 Republican debates used here, “ISIS” was mentioned 27, 3, 11, and 104 times for the debates on 9/16/2015, 10/28/2015, 11/10/2015, and 12/15/2015, respectively.
- In the 4 Republican debates considered here, Republicans used the word “college” a TOTAL of 9 times across 4 debates. Democrats mentioned “college” 22 times on 10/13/2015 and 24 times on 12/19/2015.
Other interesting things:
- On 10/13/2015, “Clinton” was mentioned 110 times and “Sanders” was mentioned 108 times with “O’Malley” uttered 61 times.
- On 12/19/2015,”Clinton” was mentioned 151 times and “Sanders” was mentioned 121 times with “O’Malley” uttered 70 times.
- Note: I’m not making a distinction here between when “Clinton” gets mentioned in reference to Bill Clinton or Hillary Clinton.
- On the Republican side, Trump has been mentioned the most in all 4 of the debates looked at here. The second most mentions we to Bush, Fiorina, Kasich, and Cruz for the debates on 9/16/2015, 10/28/2015, 11/10/2015, and 12/15/2015, respectively.
The follow-up analysis to this will be to pull out what each specific candidate said and to analyze their individual word frequencies.
Cheers.
Stats in the Wild 