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NFL Picks – Week 6
Total (weeks 1-6) – SU: 57-34 ATS: 48-41-2 O/U: 50-40-1
Week 1 – SU: 10-6 ATS: 10-6 O/U: 11-5
Week 2 – SU: 8-8 ATS: 9-7 O/U: 9-7
Week 3 – SU: 10-6 ATS: 2-14 O/U: 7-8-1
Week 4 – SU: 10-5 ATS: 9-6 O/U: 9-6
Week 5 – SU: 7-7 ATS: 9-4-1 O/U: 6-8
Week 6 – SU: 12-2 ATS: 9-4-1 O/U: 8-6
Atlanta at New Orleans
Prediction: Saints 29-24 (65.1%)
Pick: Saints +3
Total: Over 51
Denver at Cleveland
Prediction: Broncos 26-22 (62.6%)
Pick: Broncos -4
Total: Over 42
Cincinnati at Buffalo
Prediction: Bills 21-20 (51.1%)
Pick: Bills +10
Total: Under 42.5
Kansas City at Minnesota
Prediction: Vikings 21-20 (50.8%)
Pick: Chiefs +3.5
Total: Under 44
Houston at Jacksonville
Prediction: Texans 22-18 (60.5%)
Pick: Texans -1.5
Total: Under 43
Chicago at Detroit
Prediction: Lions 25-21 (61.4%)
Pick: Lions -3 PUSH
Total: Over 43
Washington at NY Jets
Prediction: Jets 21-20 (51.0%)
Pick: Washington Football Team +6
Total: Over 40.5
Arizona at Pittsburgh
Prediction: Steelers 24-20 (60.3%)
Pick: Steelers +3
Total: Under 44.5
Miami at Tennessee
Prediction: Dolphins 21-20 (51.9%(
Pick: Dolphins +2.5
Total: Under 43.5
Carolina at Seattle
Prediction: Seahawks 24-17 (68.1%)
Pick: Panthers +7
Total: Under 41
San Diego at Green Bay
Prediction: Packers 27-22 (64.5%)
Pick: Chargers +10
Total: Under 50.5
Baltimore at San Francisco
Prediction: 49ers 22-19 (58.1%)
Pick: 49ers +2.5
Total: Under 44
New England at Indianapolis
Prediction: Patriots 26-25 (51.0%)
Pick: Colts +8
Total: Under 55
NY Giants at Philadelphia
Prediction: Eagles 27-22 (62.8%)
Pick: Eagles -4
Total: Under 50
The Cubs spot in the MLB playoff bracket is basically ideal for them
The MLB playoffs are stupid. That being said, I’m going to watch every game because the playoffs are awesome.
Let me clear things up a bit. The playoffs are awesome. The structure of the playoffs is stupid. Let’s start with the dumbest of all: the one game playoff. Nothing in baseball (with the reasonable exception of regular season ties) is settled in one game. And yet, we have a one game playoff for some reason (money).
Next we have this 5 game divisional series. This isn’t nearly as bad as the one game playoff (which is probably the dumbest thing in all playoffs of all sports). However, my problem with the divisional series isn’t the length (though 7 games would be better), it’s that they don’t seed. The top team (i.e. most regular season wins) plays the winner of the wild card game. That’s how you end up with the Cardinals and the Cubs, arguably the two best teams in baseball this year, playing each other in the divisional series. These two teams shouldn’t meet until the NLCS. That would be an awesome series.
The Cubs might not win the World Series, but getting to play the Cardinals in the NLDS is the best they can hope for.
BUT……If you’re a Cubs fan, the playoffs are absolutely IDEAL for the cubs. Let’s go ahead and make some assumptions and we’ll see why. Let’s assume that the number of wins during the regular season is a reasonable measure of how good a team is. If that’s the case, then the three best teams in baseball are the Cardinals, Pirates, and Cubs, in that order. So under this assumption, the only teams in baseball that were better than the Cubs were the Cardinals and the Pirates.
Now think about this: If you want to beat a team that is better than you (i.e. will win more than 50% of the time in an infinite number of games), would you rather play them in a long series or a short series? The answer is a short series. And that’s exactly what the Cubs get. They play the Pirates in a one game playoff and they get the Cardinals (i.e. the “best” team in baseball in a five game series). It’s all falling Cubs.
Let’s do a simulation to see how much of an advantage this is. For the simulation (this is going to be a really simple simulation) we’re going to assume that in each series the the probability that team A beats team B is the same for each game. So we need to define four probabilities to assess the probability that the Cubs win the World Series, one of reach round of the playoffs. Let’s start by assuming that the Cubs have a 0.5 probability of beating every playoff team in baseball in one game except the Cardinals. And we’ll let the probability that the Cubs beat the Cardinals vary between 0 and 1. Then we’ll compare the odds that the Cubs win the World Series is they played the Cardinals in the NLDS (as in reality) versus the odds of winning the World Series if they played the Cardinals in the NLCS. If the probability that the Cubs beat the Cardinals in 0.5, it doesn’t matter when the Cubs play them (i.e the odds ratio is 1). However, if the Cubs are less than 0.5 to win each game the advantage grows quickly. If the probability that the Cubs beat the Cardinals is 0.25 (very unrealistic), the Cubs odds of winning the World Series increase by about 45% because the get to play the Cardinals in the division series. If the Cubs have a 0.4 probability of winning each game against the Cardinals, they have about a 10% increase in the odds of winning with World Series and at a 0.45 probability of winning each game, their odds are increased by about 4%. The plot below shows the probability of a Cubs win in each game over the Cardinals on the x-axis and the y-axis shows the odds ratio comparing the odds of the Cubs winning the World Series if they played the Cardinals in the NLDS as opposed to the NLCS.
So, given these playoff teams, the Cubs have nearly the ideal set-up for themselves to win the World Series. (The one game wild card “series” is still stupid though.) They play the “best” teams in shorter series and they will get the “weaker” teams in longer series. I’m not saying the Cubs will win the World Series, but I am guaranteeing it. I was in Boston in 2004 when the Red Sox ended the curse, and now I’m in Chicago in 2015……..just sayin’………..And Back to the Future and stuff………
You can find the code to my (extremely simple) simulation here. Please let me know if I screwed something up (I’m sure you would anyway even if I didn’t ask…..)
Cheers.
An “Invitation” to Address World’s Leading Tech Conference or A Brief History of Biostatistics Ryan Gosling
The play here was clearly to accept without giving them any more information.
NFL Picks – Week 5
Total (weeks 1-5) – SU: 46-31 ATS: 39-37-1 O/U: 42-34-1
Week 1 – SU: 10-6 ATS: 10-6 O/U: 11-5
Week 2 – SU: 8-8 ATS: 9-7 O/U: 9-7
Week 3 – SU: 10-6 ATS: 2-14 O/U: 7-8-1
Week 4 – SU: 10-5 ATS: 9-6 O/U: 9-6
Week 5 – SU: 7-7 ATS: 9-4-1 O/U: 6-8
Indianapolis at Houston
Prediction: Texans 24-22 (53.5%)
Pick: Colts +5
Total: Over 41
Jacksonville at Tampa Bay
Prediction: Buccaneers 22-17 (63.9%)
Pick: Buccaneers -3
Total: Under 42.5
Chicago at Kansas City
Prediction: Chiefs 23-20 (58.2%)
Pick: Bears +10
Total: Under 45
Washington at Atlanta
Prediction: Falcons 25-23 (54.6%)
Pick: Washington Football Team +7.5
Total: Under 48
Seattle at Cincinnati
Prediction: Seahawks 21-20 (54.8%)
Pick: Seahawks +3 (PUSH)
Total: Under 43.5
New Orleans at Philadelphia
Prediction: Eagles 28-26 (53.9%)
Pick: Saints +5.5
Total: Over 48.5
Cleveland at Baltimore
Prediction: Ravens 24-18 (65.6%)
Pick: Browns +7
Total: Under 43.5
St. Louis at Green Bay
Prediction: Packers 27-19 (70.7%)
Pick: Rams +9.5
Total: Under 46.5
Buffalo at Tennessee
Prediction: Bills 21-20 (51.4%)
Pick: Titans +3
Total: Under 42
Arizona at Detroit
Prediction: Lions 24-20 (61.8%)
Pick: Lions +3
Total: Under 44
New England at Dallas
Prediction: Patriots 26-25 (51.2%)
Pick: Cowboys +10
Total: Over 50.5
Denver at Oakland
Prediction: Broncos 27-20 (69.5%)
Pick: Broncos -5.5
Total: Over 43.5
San Francisco at NY Giants
Prediction: 49ers 21-20 (52.6%)
Pick: 49ers +7
Total: Under 43
Pittsburgh at San Diego
Prediction: Chargers 24-23 (55.4%)
Pick: Steelers +3.5
Total: Over 45.5
NFL Picks – Week 4
Total (weeks 1-4) – SU: 39-24 ATS: 30-33 O/U: 36-26-1
Week 1 – SU: 10-6 ATS: 10-6 O/U: 11-5
Week 2 – SU: 8-8 ATS: 9-7 O/U: 9-7
Week 3 – SU: 10-6 ATS: 2-14 O/U: 7-8-1
Week 4 – SU: 10-5 ATS: 9-6 O/U: 9-6
Baltimore at Pittsburgh
Prediction: Steelers 23-21 (55.5%)
Pick: Ravens +3
Total: Over 44
NY Jets at Miami
Prediction: Dolphins 22-18 (60.5%)
Pick: Dolphins +2
Total: Under 41.5
Jacksonville at Indianapolis
Prediction: Colts 26-17 (75.0%)
Pick: Jaguars +9.5
Total: Under 48.5
Atlanta at Houston
Prediction: Falcons 24-23 (53.5%)
Pick: Texans +6.5
Total: Under 47
Carolina at Tampa Bay
Prediction: Panthers 21-19 (54.1%)
Pick: Buccaneers +3.5
Total: Over 40
NY Giants at Buffalo
Prediction: Bills 22-20 (54.9%)
Pick: Giants +6
Total: Under 46.5
Oakland at Chicago
Prediction: Bears 24-18 (66.3%)
Pick: Bears +3
Total: Under 44.5
Philadelphia at Washington
Prediction: Washington Football Team 25-24 (51.4%)
Pick: Washington Football Team +3.5
Total: Over 47
Kansas City at Cincinnati
Prediction: Bengals 22-19 (58.4%)
Pick: Chiefs +4
Total: Under 44
Cleveland at San Diego
Prediction: Chargers 25-21 (62.4%)
Pick: Browns +7.5
Total: Over 45
Green Bay at San Francisco
Prediction: 49ers 23-21 (54.3%)
Pick: 49ers +9.5
Total: Under 48
Minnesota at Denver
Prediction: Broncos 28-20 (72.8%)
Pick: Broncos -7
Total: Over 42.5
Arizona at St. Louis
Prediction: Cardinals 22-18 (60.7%)
Pick: Rams +7
Total: Under 43
Dallas at New Orleans
Prediction: Saints 28-24 (62.2%)
Pick: Saints -4
Total: Over 46.5
Detroit at Seattle
Prediction: Seahawks 25-18 (67.4%)
Pick: Lions +10
Total: Under 43.5
Is a career is academics a disaster? It Depends.
I read this article on Slate the other day about “Quit Lit” where “Soon-to-be former academics are taking their grievances public.” Apparently, there are plenty of disgruntled academics, and their stories make good articles. (Just see most of Rebecca Schuman’s writing.) But these experiences don’t hit home for me at all. I am a very gruntled (opposite of disgruntled, right?) academic.
But if all you read was Slate, you’d think that getting a Ph.D. was a disastrous, mentally scarring experience, which then results in devastatingly disappointing lack of jobs and having wasted years (sometimes over a decade) of your life. So the conclusion seems to be: A Ph.D. is not worth it.
So, Greg, should I get a Ph.D.? Well, as I like to tell my students, the answer to all statistical problems is: it depends. And that answer also applies here (and to nearly everything in life). First of all, speaking about a Ph.D. as one thing is highly suspect. Ph.D.s differ vastly by discipline and institution. A literature Ph.D. is no where near the same thing as a statistics Ph.D. A Ph.D. from Harvard is much different than a Ph.D from Phoenix University (yes, you can really do that!).
And as for the job prospects, those also differ wildly by discipline. My friend who has a Ph.D. in English refers to the academic job market as a “lottery” where hundreds of applicants will apply for a single tenure track position (He did get a tenure track position though!!!). In statistics, there are plenty of academic jobs.
I think one of the biggest problems with academic jobs is that there are a lot of people in those positions who don’t really want to be in them. It was just the logical next step. (They are smart, go to college, work hard, go to grad school, do a post-doc, and…….then obviously an assistant professorship (tenure track only of course)).
And they may feel that if they leave academics that they are a failure and that they couldn’t hack it. For some people this is surely true, but for many others, they definitely could do it, but would hate every minute of bring a professor. Here’s the thing: People are different. Academics isn’t for everyone. Industry isn’t for everyone. People are different.
I think one of the problems with academics is that the people you are getting advice from when you are doing a Ph.D. are people who chose the tenure track academic route. So they often seem to encourage their students to pursue that path because it was right for them even if it’s not right for the student. So I’m here to tell you, if you go and get a Ph.D. and decide not to go into academics you are not a failure by any means. Academics may just not be for you. And that’s ok. People are different.
So should you get a Ph.D.? It depends. What field do you want to go into? Why do you want a Ph.D.? Do you want to be in academics? Do you want to be in industry? Is there a field that you love? Can you handle 4-10 year of it?
If you want to know what it’s like to get a Ph.D. in statistics or biostatistics, check out “So you want a graduate degree in statistics?”
Cheers.
P.S. Here is a critique of Schuman’s writing from last fall by Charles Green who “teaches writing as a lecturer at Cornell University, where he asks students to do bicep curls on the first day so they can lift his syllabus”.
NFL Picks – Week 3
Total – SU: 29-19 ATS: 21-27 O/U: 27-20-1
Week 1 – SU: 10-6 ATS: 10-6 O/U: 11-5
Week 2 – SU: 8-8 ATS: 9-7 O/U: 9-7
Week 3 – SU: 10-6 ATS: 2-14 O/U: 7-8-1
Washington at NY Giants
Prediction: Giants 23-22 (54.5%)
Pick: Washington Football Team +4
Total: Over 44
Pittsburgh at St. Louis
Prediction: Steelers 22-21 (52.5%)
Pick: Rams +2
Total: Under 47.5
San Diego at Minnesota
Prediction: Vikings 22-21 (51.6%)
Pick: Charger +2.5
Total: Under 45 PUSH
Tampa Bay at Houston
Prediction: Texans 23-18 (64.9%)
Pick: Buccaneers +6.5
Total: Over 41
Philadelphia at NY Jets
Prediction: Eagles 23-21 (54.5%)
Pick: Eagles +2.5
Total: Under 46
New Orleans at Carolina
Prediction: Saints 24-23 (50.6%)
Pick: Saints +6.5
Total: Over 44
Jacksonville at New England
Prediction: Patriots 30-17 (80.6%)
Pick: Jacksonville +14
Total: Under 48
Cincinnati at Baltimore
Prediction: Ravens 23-20 (57.2%)
Pick: Ravens -2.5
Total: Under 45
Oakland at Cleveland
Prediction: Browns 23-18 (63.1%)
Pick: Browns -3.5
Total: Under 41.5
Indianapolis at Tennessee
Prediction: Colts 24-21 (57%)
Pick: Titans +3.5
Total: Under 45.5
Atlanta at Dallas
Prediction: Cowboys 27-22 (61.7%)
Pick: Cowboys +2.5
Total: Over 45
San Francisco at Arizona
Prediction: 49ers 21-19 (53.7%)
Pick: 49ers +7
Total: Under 44.5
Chicago at Seattle
Prediction: Seahawks 25-17 (71.1%)
Pick: Bears +15.5
Total: Under 43.5
Buffalo at Miami
Prediction: Dolphins 22-19 (58.7%)
Pick: Dolphins -3
Total: Under 44
Denver at Detroit
Prediction: Broncos 26-24 (53.5%)
Pick: Lions +2.5
Total: Over 45.5
Kansas City at Green Bay
Prediction: Packers 25-20 (65.0%)
Pick: Chiefs +7
Total:Under 49
Discretionary penalties in the NFL
Holding penalties in the nfl
As a former college offensive linemen, I’m well aware of the reputation that holding penalties have – ‘you could call one on every play’ goes the old adage.
Kevin and I wrote a paper, recently appearing in JQAS, in which we looked at the rates of NFL penalties. Specifically, we wanted to address how rates fluctuate over the course of the game.
Quick summary: the rates of discretionary penalties in NFL games are hugely correlated with time.
Here’s my favorite plot, where, letting OHR be the holding rate on run plays, OHP the holding rate on pass plays, and DPI the defensive pass interference rate, we compare versus game minute (1 through 60). These rates are adjusted for play and game characteristics, and given per 1000 plays along with 95% confidence limits.
Model estimated penalty rates by game minute. DPI: defensive pass interference. OHP: offensive holding on pass plays. OHR: offensive…
View original post 89 more words
Stats in the Wild 