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NCAA Basketball Rankings – 12/19/2012
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My favorite:
Neural nets. Let’s call them what they are.
(Not so) New name: Nonlinear regression.
Statisticians and Computer Scientists have done a pretty poor job of thinking of names for procedures. Names are important. No one is going to use a method called “the Stalin-Mussolini Matrix Completion Algorithm.” But who would pass up the opportunity to use the “Schwarzenegger-Shatner Statistic.” So, I have decided to offer some suggestions for re-naming some of our procedures. I am open to further suggestions.
Bayesian Inference. Bayes did use his famous theorem to do a calculation. But it was really Laplace who systematically used Bayes’ theorem for inference.
New Name: Laplacian Inference.
Bayesian Nets. A Bayes nets is just a directed acyclic graph endowed with probability distribution. This has nothing to do with Bayesian — oops, I mean Laplacian — inference. According to Wikipedia, it was Judea Pearl who came up with the name.
New Name: Pearl Graph.
The Bayes Classification Rule. Give $latex {(X,Y)}&fg=000000$, with $latex…
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In preparation for conference play in the 2012-13 college basketball season, here are my conference power rankings. The rankings below are derived from the average grade of the teams in the conference. This list looks at the strength of a conference from top to bottom.
The ACC has only one team in the top 15 (Duke) while the SEC has two (Florida/Kentucky), but there are eight SEC teams ranked below 100 versus only 2 for the ACC. This results in a higher conference ranking for the ACC.
Conference Power Rankings
| 1 | Big 10 | 83.327 |
| 2 | Big East | 80.812 |
| 3 | ACC | 80.666 |
| 4 | Pac 12 | 79.453 |
| 5 | Mountain West | 79.000 |
| 6 | Big 12 | 78.373 |
| 7 | Atlantic 10 | 77.376 |
| 8 | SEC | 76.978 |
| 9 | West Coast | 73.473 |
| 10 | Missouri Valley | 73.179 |
| 11 | Conference USA | 70.355 |
| 12 | Horizon | 69.025 |
| 13 | WAC | 68.907 |
| 14 | Big West | 68.048 |
| 15 | Colonial Athletic | 67.853 |
| 16 | Patriot | 67.818 |
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BCS Methods Reviewed: An overview of the math and the “math” of the BCS.
The BCS
Every year, undergraduate super fans follow every pass, every defensive stop, and every concussion of the season attempting to will their team to a national championship. Alas, it is not meant to be for most. But fear not, for the powers that be have provided an ample, perennial scape goat for each and every fan of all of the also-rans: The BCS.
Now, I have no problem with anyone blaming the BCS. I’d even argue that part of the excitement of college football is arguing about the stupidity of the BCS system (But it’s still absurd), and, apparently, getting fans to argue is a fantastic way to make money (Lots of money, in fact, on the backs of essentially unpaid labor).
But what exactly is the BCS? It’s some combination of humans and computers getting together in a black box and spitting out some sort of ranking system that is used to decide which schools go the the BCS bowls and which schools spent way too much money to end up in the Papa John’s Pizza Bowl. Of course, all of this is going away for the 2014-15 season, so this is our last year of BCS “joy”. That also means it’s my last chance to really take a look at how the BCS sausage is made.
” Mr. Speaker, I rise today to announce the discovery of a new breakthrough in mathematics in the theory of vector bundles.” – Jerry McNerney, in US Congress last week. (Thanks to David Farris for finding this.)
NFL predictions – Week 15
Overall Records for 2012
SU: 140-83-1 (62.72% )
ATS: 122-101-1 (54.69%, +15.95 units, 7.12% ROI)
O/U: 118-100-3 (53.39%, +13 units, 5.88% ROI)
Week 15 (10-6 SU, 7-9 ATS, 11-4-1 O/U)
Week 14 (10-6 SU, 7-9 ATS, 5-11 O/U)
Week 13 (9-7 SU, 10-6 ATS, 8-8 O/U)
Week 12 (9-7 SU, 8-7-1 ATS, 10-6 O/U)
Week 11 (12-2 SU, 11-3 ATS, 5-8-1 O/U)
Week 10 (6-7-1 SU, 7-7 ATS, 8-6 O/U)
Week 9 (11-3 SU, 6-8 ATS, 6-7-1 O/U)
Week 8 (10-4 SU, 9-5 ATS, 9-4 O/U)
Week 7 (10-3 SU, 6-7 ATS, 6-7 O/U)
Week 6 (6-8 SU, 7-7 ATS, 6-7 O/U)
Week 5 (10-4 SU, 7-7 ATS, 7-7 O/U)
Week 4 (10-5 SU, 10-5 ATS, 12-2 O/U)
Week 3 (5-11 SU, 9-7 ATS, 9-7 O/U)
Week 2 (11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS, 8-8 O/U)
Week 1 (11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS, 8-8 O/U)
Week 15
Thursday @8:20pm
Cincinnati Bengals at Philadelphia Eagles
Prediction: Eagles win 26-24
Pick: Eagles +3.5
O/U: Over 45.5
Sunday @1pm
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans
Prediction: Texans win 27-26
Pick: Colts +8
O/U: Over 48
New York Giants at Atlanta Falcons
Prediction: Falcons win 27-24
Pick: Falcons -1.5
O/U: Under 51.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints
Prediction: Saints win 29-24
Pick: Saints -3
O/U: Under 54
Minnesota Vikings at St. Louis Rams
Prediction: Vikings win 24-21
Pick: Vikings +3.5
O/U: Over 38
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears
Prediction: Packers win 26-23
Pick: Bears +3.5
O/U: Over 45.5
Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens
Prediction: Ravens win 27-25
Pick: Ravens +3
O/U: Over 48
Jacksonville Jaguars at Miami Dolphins
Prediction: Dolphins win 22-15
Pick: Jaguars +7
O/U: Under 37 (PUSH)
Washington Redskins at Cleveland Browns
Prediction: Redskins win 25-21
Pick: Redskins -2.5
O/U: Over 45.5
Seattle Seahawks at Buffalo Bills
Prediction: Bills win 25-24
Pick: Bills +4.5
O/U: Over 42.5
Carolina Panthers at San Diego Chargers
Prediction: Chargers win 25-20
Pick: Panthers +3.5
O/U: Under 45.5
Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals
Prediction: Lions win 27-18
Pick: Lions -6
O/U: Over 43.5
Sunday @4:05pm
Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders
Prediction: Raiders win 22-20
Pick: Chiefs +3.5
O/U: Under 43
Sunday @4:25pm
Pittsburgh Steelers at Dallas Cowboys
Prediction: Cowboys win 23-21
Pick: Cowboys +1.5
O/U: Under 44.5
Sunday @8:20pm
San Francisco 49ers at New England Patriots
Prediction: Patriots win 35-24
Pick: Patriots -5.5
O/U: Over 47
Monday @8:30pm
New York Jets at Tennessee Titans
Prediction: Titans win 23-21
Pick: Titans -2
O/U: Over 42
Cheers.
RIPPEN – 12-11-2012
RIPPEN for week 14
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RIPPEN for the year
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NCAA Basketball Rankings – 12/11/2012
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NFL Rankings – 12/11/2012
StatsInTheWild NFL rankings as of December 6, 2012 at 12:34pm. SOS=strength of schedule
| Team | Rank | Change | Record | Projected Record | ESPN | TeamRankings.com | SOS | Prob Make Playoffs |
| New England | 1 | – | 10-3 | 12-4 | 1 | 17 | 100% | |
| San Francisco | 2 | ↑1 |
9-3-1 | 11-4-1 | 4 | 4 | 96.85% | |
| Houston | 3 | ↓1 | 11-2 | 13-3 | 3 | 21 | 100% | |
| Denver | 4 | ↑1 | 10-3 | 12-4 | 2 | 29 | 100% | |
| Green Bay | 5 | ↑1 | 9-4 | 11-5 | 5 | 7 | 100% | |
| NY Giants | 6 | ↑3 | 8-5 | 10-6 | 7 | 16 | 86.86% | |
| Seattle | 7 | ↑3 |
8-5 | 10-6 | 6 | 5 | 56.63% | |
| Atlanta | 8 | ↓4 | 11-2 | 13-3 | 11 | 31 | 100% | |
| Chicago | 9 | ↓2 | 8-5 | 10-6 | 15 | 9 | 72.95% | |
| Baltimore | 10 | ↓2 | 9-4 | 10-6 | 12 | 22 | 96.65% | |
| Minnesota | 11 | ↑3 | 7-6 | 8-8 | 17 | 6 | 10.04% | |
| Washington | 12 | ↑4 | 7-6 | 9-7 | 9 | 18 | 43.38% | |
| St. Louis | 13 | ↑2 | 6-6-1 | 8-7-1 | 10 | 2 | 3.19% | |
| Dallas | 14 | ↑3 | 7-6 | 9-7 | 13 | 14 | 33.59% | |
| Cincinnati | 15 | ↓3 | 7-6 | 9-7 | 16 | 30 | 43.47% | |
| Tampa Bay | 16 | ↓3 | 6-7 | 7-9 | 23 | 26 | 0.49% | |
| Indianapolis | 17 | ↑1 | 9-4 | 10-6 | 8 | 24 | 96.43% | |
| Pittsburgh | 18 | ↓7 | 7-6 | 8-8 | 18 | 27 | 41.22% | |
| NY Jets | 19 | ↑1 | 6-7 | 8-8 | 14 | 8 | 20.77% | |
| Detroit | 20 | ↑1 | 4-9 | 5-11 | 26 | 3 | 0.0% | |
| New Orleans | 21 | ↓2 | 5-8 | 6-10 | 21 | 19 | 0.0% | |
| Miami | 22 | – | 5-8 | 6-10 | 19 | 11 | 0.56% | |
| Buffalo | 23 | – | 5-8 | 6-10 | 22 | 15 | 0.77% | |
| San Diego | 24 | ↑1 | 5-8 | 7-9 | 25 | 32 | 0.0% | |
| Carolina | 25 | ↑2 | 4-9 | 6-10 | 24 | 20 | 0.0% | |
| Cleveland | 26 | – | 5-8 | 6-10 | 20 | 23 | 0.13% | |
| Arizona | 27 | ↓3 | 4-9 | 5-11 | 29 | 1 | 0.0% | |
| Tennessee | 28 | – | 4-9 | 5-11 | 27 | 12 | 0.0% | |
| Philadelphia | 29 | – | 4-9 | 5-11 | 28 | 13 | 0.0% | |
| Jacksonville | 30 | – | 2-11 | 3-13 | 30 | 10 | 0.0% | |
| Oakland | 31 | – | 3-10 | 4-12 | 32 | 28 | 0.0% | |
| Kansas City | 32 | – | 2-11 | 3-13 | 31 | 25 | 0.0% |
Biggest Movers
Up
4 Spots: Washington
3 Spots: NY Giants, Seattle, Minnesota, Dallas,
2 Spots: St. Louis, Carolina
Down
7 Spots: Pittsburgh
4 Spots: Atlanta
3 Spots: Cincinnati, Tampa Bay, Arizona
2 Spots: Chicago, Baltimore, New Orleans
Playoff Predictions
AFC seeds(Projected Record)
- Houston (13-3)
- New England (12-4)
- Denver (12-4)
- Baltimore (10-6)
- Indianapolis (10-6)
- Cincinnati (9-7)
NFC seeds (Projected Record)
- Atlanta (13-3)
- San Francisco (11-4-1)
- Green Bay (11-5)
- NY Giants (10-6)
- Chicago (10-6)
- Seattle (9-7)
Playoff Games
Wild-Card Round
AFC: Denver beat Cincinnati; Baltimore beats Indianapolis
NFC: Green Bay beats Seattle; NY Giants beat Chicago
Divisional Round
AFC: Houston beats Baltimore; New England beats Denver
NFC: NY Giants beat Atlanta; San Francisco beats Green Bay
Conference Championship
AFC: New England beats Houston
NFC: San Francisco beats NY Giants
Super Bowl
New England beats San Francisco
Cheers.
Stats in the Wild 