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NFL playoff probability
Here are some NFL play-off probability plots from R that have been spruced up quite a bit thanks to a friend who dabbles in the visual arts.
Miami’s week 9 loss to the colts was very costly. Of course the Dolphins didn’t help themselves very much with a week 10 loss to the Titans 37-3. Their season basically went down the toilet in those two weeks.
No one has had a more up and down season than the Bengals. They lost their first game, won three in a row, lost 4 in a row, and are currently in the midst of a 4 game winning streak.
The Texans’ playoff hopes have never really been in doubt thanks to their very fast start to the season. The question here is can the Colts get in with the Texans.
In week 8 San Diego lost to Cleveland 7-6. Not good. Denver, on the other hand, has not stopped winning.
The Eagles were 3-1. Then they decided to stop winning.
It’s pretty clear unless something crazy happens that the NFC north is getting 2 play-off teams. At one point during the season it seemed possible they might get three teams, but Minnesota has taken a nose dive.
Falcons have been in control from the first day of the season in this division.
Wondering what an 8 game losing streak would like like in one of these graphs? Look no further than Arizona.
Everyone is talking about Luck and RGIII this year, but don’t sleep on Russell Wilson. San Francisco’s dip in week 6 was a lost to the New York Giants, which moved San Francisco close to Seattle. Then in week 7 San Francisco beat Seattle to create quite a bit of separation.
Cheers.
RIPPEN after week 13
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NFL Predictions – Week 14
Overall Records for 2012
SU: 130-77-1 (62.74% )
ATS: 115-92-1 (55.53%, +18.4 units, 17.04% ROI)
O/U: 107-96-2 (52.68%, +6.2 units, 3.02% ROI)
Week 14 (10-6 SU, 7-9 ATS, 5-11 O/U)
Week 13 (9-7 SU, 10-6 ATS, 8-8 O/U)
Week 12 (9-7 SU, 8-7-1 ATS, 10-6 O/U)
Week 11 (12-2 SU, 11-3 ATS, 5-8-1 O/U)
Week 10 (6-7-1 SU, 7-7 ATS, 8-6 O/U)
Week 9 (11-3 SU, 6-8 ATS, 6-7-1 O/U)
Week 8 (10-4 SU, 9-5 ATS, 9-4 O/U)
Week 7 (10-3 SU, 6-7 ATS, 6-7 O/U)
Week 6 (6-8 SU, 7-7 ATS, 6-7 O/U)
Week 5 (10-4 SU, 7-7 ATS, 7-7 O/U)
Week 4 (10-5 SU, 10-5 ATS, 12-2 O/U)
Week 3 (5-11 SU, 9-7 ATS, 9-7 O/U)
Week 2 (11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS, 8-8 O/U)
Week 1 (11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS, 8-8 O/U)
Week 12
Thursday @8:20pm
Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders
Prediction: Broncos win 27-22
Pick: Raiders +10.5
O/U: Over 48
Sunday @1pm
Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers
Prediction: Falcons win 26-21
Pick: Falcons -3.5
O/U: Under 47.5
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings
Prediction: Vikings win 25-24
Pick: Vikings +3.5
O/U: Over 39.5
Baltimore Ravens at Washington Redskins
Prediction: Redskins win 26-24
Pick: Redskins -0.5
O/U: Over 47.5
Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Prediction: Buccaneers win 27-24
Pick: Eagles +7.5
O/U: Over 47
San Diego Chargers at Pittsburgh Steelers
Prediction: Steelers win 23-22
Pick: Chargers +7.5
O/U: Over 39.5
Dallas Cowboys at Cincinnati Bengals
Prediction: Bengals win 25-23
Pick: Cowboys +3.5
O/U: Over 46
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts
Prediction: Colts win 28-20
Pick: Colts -5.5
O/U: Under 48
New York Jets at Jacksonville Jaguars
Prediction: Jets win 21-18
Pick: Jets -2.5
O/U: Over 38.5
St. Louis Rams at Buffalo Bills
Prediction: Bills win 26-20
Pick: Bills -3
O/U: Over 42
Kansas City Chiefs at Cleveland Browns
Prediction: Browns win 21-18
Pick: Chiefs +5.5
O/U: Over 37.5
Miami Dolphins at San Francisco 49ers
Prediction: 49ers win 27-19
Pick: Dolphins +10.5
O/U: Over 39
Sunday @4:05pm
New Orleans Saints at New York Giants
Prediction: Saints win 27-25
Pick: Saints +6.5
O/U: Under 53
Sunday @4:25pm
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks
Prediction: Seahawks win 23-17
Pick: Cardinals +10.5
O/U: Over 34.5
Sunday @8:20pm
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers
Prediction: Packers win 29-26
Pick: Lions +6.5
O/U: Over 51.5
Monday @8:30pm
Houston Texans at New England Patriots
Prediction: Patriots win 35-24
Pick: Patriots -4.5
O/U: Over 52
Cheers.
NFL Rankings – 12/6/2012
StatsInTheWild NFL rankings as of December 6, 2012 at 12:34pm. SOS=strength of schedule
| Team | Rank | Change | Record | Projected Record | ESPN | TeamRankings.com | SOS | Prob Make Playoffs |
| New England | 1 | ↑1 | 9-3 | 12-4 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 100% |
| Houston | 2 | ↓1 | 11-1 | 14-2 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 100% |
| San Francisco | 3 | – | 8-3-1 | 11-3-1 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 95.31% |
| Atlanta | 4 | ↑1 | 11-1 | 14-2 | 2 | 4 | 32 | 100% |
| Denver | 5 | ↑1 | 9-3 | 12-4 | 5 | 3 | 28 | 100% |
| Green Bay | 6 | ↑3 | 8-4 | 11-5 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 94.24% |
| Chicago | 7 | ↓3 | 8-4 | 11-5 | 8 | 13 | 13 | 93.45% |
| Baltimore | 8 | ↓1 | 9-3 | 11-5 | 6 | 7 | 22 | 98.30% |
| NY Giants | 9 | ↓1 | 7-5 | 9-7 | 10 | 12 | 18 | 82.32% |
| Seattle | 10 | – | 7-5 | 9-7 | 12 | 9 | 6 | 49.79% |
| Pittsburgh | 11 | ↑3 | 7-5 | 9-7 | 13 | 10 | 29 | 61.99% |
| Cincinnati | 12 | ↑2 | 7-5 | 9-7 | 11 | 11 | 30 | 55.94% |
| Tampa Bay | 13 | ↓2 | 6-6 | 8-8 | 15 | 17 | 26 | 13.46% |
| Minnesota | 14 | ↓2 | 6-6 | 8-8 | 17 | 23 | 4 | 7.84% |
| St. Louis | 15 | ↑4 | 5-6-1 | 7-8-1 | 19 | 15 | 2 | 3.72% |
| Washington | 16 | ↓1 | 6-6 | 8-8 | 14 | 14 | 21 | 32.78% |
| Dallas | 17 | ↓1 | 6-6 | 8-8 | 16 | 22 | 14 | 25.74% |
| Indianapolis | 18 | – | 8-4 | 10-6 | 9 | 8 | 23 | 72.35% |
| New Orleans | 19 | ↓2 | 5-7 | 7-9 | 18 | 18 | 19 | 1.35% |
| NY Jets | 20 | ↑2 | 5-7 | 7-9 | 22 | 16 | 10 | 6.96% |
| Detroit | 21 | ↓1 | 4-8 | 5-11 | 21 | 24 | 3 | 0.02% |
| Miami | 22 | ↓1 | 5-7 | 7-9 | 20 | 19 | 12 | 1.63% |
| Buffalo | 23 | ↑3 | 5-7 | 7-9 | 23 | 20 | 16 | 2.84% |
| Arizona | 24 | ↓1 | 4-8 | 5-11 | 27 | 27 | 1 | 0.0% |
| San Diego | 25 | ↓1 | 4-8 | 6-10 | 25 | 26 | 31 | 0.0% |
| Cleveland | 26 | ↑2 | 4-8 | 6-10 | 24 | 21 | 24 | 0.05% |
| Carolina | 27 | ↓2 | 3-9 | 4-12 | 28 | 28 | 17 | 0.0% |
| Tennessee | 28 | ↓1 | 4-8 | 6-10 | 26 | 25 | 9 | 0.0% |
| Philadelphia | 29 | ↑1 | 3-9 | 4-12 | 30 | 32 | 11 | 0.0% |
| Jacksonville | 30 | ↓1 | 2-10 | 3-13 | 32 | 29 | 8 | 0.0% |
| Oakland | 31 | – | 3-9 | 4-12 | 29 | 30 | 27 | 0.0% |
| Kansas City | 32 | – | 2-10 | 3-13 | 31 | 31 | 25 | 0.0% |
Biggest Movers
Up
4 Spots: St. Louis (defeated San Francisco 16-13 OT)
3 Spots: Green Bay (defeated Minnesota 23-14), Pittsburgh (defeated Baltimore 23-20), Buffalo (defeated Jacksonville 34-18)
2 Spots: Cincinnati (defeated San Diego 20-13), NY Jets (defeated Arizona 7-6), Cleveland (defeated Oakland 20-17)
Down
3 Spots: Chicago (lost to Seattle 23-17 OT)
2 Spots: Tampa Bay (lost to Denver 31-23), Minnesota (lost to Green Bay 23-14), New Orleans (lost to Atlanta 23-13), Carolina (lost to Kansas City 27-21)
Playoff Predictions
AFC seeds(Projected Record)
- Houston (14-2)
- Denver (12-4)
- New England (12-4)
- Baltimore (11-5)
- Indianapolis (10-6)
- Pittsburgh (9-7)
NFC seeds (Projected Record)
- Atlanta (14-2)
- San Francisco (11-4-1)
- Green Bay (11-5)
- NY Giants (9-7)
- Chicago (11-5)
- Seattle (9-7)
Playoff Games
Wild-Card Round
AFC: New England beats Pittsburgh; Baltimore beats Indianapolis
NFC: Green Bay beats Seattle; Chicago beat NY Giants
Divisional Round
AFC: Houston beats Baltimore; New England beats Denver
NFC: Atlanta beats Chicago; San Francisco beats Green Bay
Conference Championship
AFC: New England beats Denver
NFC: San Francisco beats Atlanta
Super Bowl
New England beats San Francisco
Cheers.
Congress Holds An Anti-Vaccination Hearing
From here:
Message to Congress: science isn’t easy, and autism is complicated. Don’t criticize science when it doesn’t give you the answer you thought you knew. That’s not how science works. Thousands of scientists are now trying to identify the causes of autism, and they’ve made progress, especially on the genetic front. The answer might not be simple, but we will find it.
NCAA Basketball Rankings – 12/3/2012
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Dropped out: Virginia Tech, Oregon State, Florida State, NC State, Oregon, Marquette, Colorado, Oklahoma Stata, North Carolina, Northwestern, California,
NCAA Football Rankings – 12/2/2012
Updated December 2, 2012 at 12:34pm
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NFL Predictions – Week 13
Overall Records for 2012
SU: 119-71-1
ATS: 107-83-1
O/U: 102-84-2
Week 13 (8-7 SU, 9-6 ATS, 8-7 O/U)
Week 12 (9-7 SU, 8-7-1 ATS, 10-6 O/U)
Week 11 (12-2 SU, 11-3 ATS, 5-8-1 O/U)
Week 10 (6-7-1 SU, 7-7 ATS, 8-6 O/U)
Week 9 (11-3 SU, 6-8 ATS, 6-7-1 O/U)
Week 8 (10-4 SU, 9-5 ATS, 9-4 O/U)
Week 7 (10-3 SU, 6-7 ATS, 6-7 O/U)
Week 6 (6-8 SU, 7-7 ATS, 6-7 O/U)
Week 5 (10-4 SU, 7-7 ATS, 7-7 O/U)
Week 4 (10-5 SU, 10-5 ATS, 12-2 O/U)
Week 3 (5-11 SU, 9-7 ATS, 9-7 O/U)
Week 2 (11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS, 8-8 O/U)
Week 1 (11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS, 8-8 O/U)
Week 13
Thursday @8:20pm
New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons
Prediction: Saints win 26-25
Pick: Saints +3.5
O/U: Under 55
Sunday @1pm
Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills
Prediction: Bills win 25-18
Pick: Buffalo -6
O/U: Under 45
Carolina Panthers at Kansas City Chiefs
Prediction: Panthers win 23-20
Pick: Panthers -2.5
O/U: Over 40.5
Arizona Cardinals at New York Jets
Prediction: Jets win 22-20
Pick: Cardinals +4.5
O/U: Over 36.5
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers
Prediction: Packers win 28-24
Pick: Vikings +9.5
O/U: Over 46.5
Indianapolis Colts at Detroit Lions
Prediction: Colts win 28-27
Pick: Colts +4.5
O/U: Over 51
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins
Prediction: Patriots win 35-19
Pick: Patriots -7.5
O/U: Over 51
San Francisco 49ers at St. Louis Rams
Prediction: 49ers win 29-20
Pick: 49ers -7
O/U: Over 40
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans
Prediction: Texans win 29-23
Pick: Texans -5.5
O/U: Over 47
Seattle Seahawks at Chicago Bears
Prediction: Bears win 23-22
Pick: Seahawks +3.5
O/U: Over 37.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Denver Broncos
Prediction: Buccaneers win 27-26
Pick: Buccaneers +7
O/U: Over 51
Cincinnati Bengals at San Diego Chargers
Prediction: Chargers win 25-24
Pick: Chargers +1.5
O/U: Over 46
Sunday @4:05pm
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens
Prediction: Ravens win 26-21
Pick: Steelers +7.5
O/U: Over 36
Sunday @4:25pm
Cleveland Browns at Oakland Raiders
Prediction: Browns win 21-20
Pick: Cleveland +1.5
O/U: Over 36.5
Sunday @8:20pm
Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys
Prediction: Cowboys win 30-22
Pick: Eagles +10
O/U: Over 43
Monday @8:30pm
New York Giants at Washington Redskins
Prediction: Redskins win 27-26
Pick: Redskins +2.5
O/U: Over 51
Cheers.
Stats in the Wild 