Stats in the Wild

AP IMPACT: Statisticians reject global cooling

Cheers.

I’ve been reading a lot about vaccines lately, and I just finished a book, “Look Me in the Eyes” (highly recommended) about Asperger’s syndrome so naturally I stumbled across this article: On Parenting: Genes—Not Vaccines—Linked to Autism from 2008.

In the last paragraph they say: “Earlier this week, researchers at the California Department of Public Health reported that the rates of autism in children born from 1989 through 2003 has risen, despite the fact that the preservative thimerosal, which contains toxic mercury, was largely phased out of vaccines during that time. It echoes studies in five other countries, including Canada in 2007, that failed to find a link between the use of vaccines or thimerosal and autism. Some parents and autism activists argue that vaccines, or the thimerosal in them, is responsible for autism..”

Who are these “parents and autism activists” and are they just making this stuff up? Are any scientists claiming there is a link between the vaccines and autism? Are these the same “parents” who claim that the H1N1 and HPV vaccine are unsafe?

That paragraph from the article finishes with a quote from Peter Hotez, president of the Sabin Vaccine Institute and father of a 15-year-old daughter with autism:
“Hotez says: ‘It doesn’t make sense that mercury would cause autism, because we know what mercury does cause”—horrible diseases like Minamata, in which children are born with deformed limbs. He’s optimistic that the momentum for focusing on how genes interact with environmental triggers will soon bear fruit.’

Moral: Vaccines do not cause Autism.

Cheers.

Here is an interesting website about the H1N1 flu with state by state data for the United States.

And here is an interesting graph from the CDC about the number of hospital visits for flu like symptoms. Not a good start to this flu season. I wonder if that spike this year is influenced more by an increase in severe flu cases or an increase in people visiting doctors as a reaction to the news reports about the flu.

Cheers.

The Shutdown Corner, a Yahoo! sports blog notes that the redskins will play their sixth consecutive game against a winless opponent. Quite impressive. In the post they note that the chances of this happening are 1 in 32,768. I have some comments:

I think what they mean to say is that given the Redskins schedule this year and assuming each of their opponents has a 50% chance of winning each of their games the chances of this happening are 1 in 32,768. (That calculation checks out.)

However, the assumption that any of the redskins opponents has a 50% chance of winning their games is laughable at best (i.e. Lions, Bucs, Chiefs). If we re-do this calculation with last years respective winning percentages for these teams the chances are only about 1 in 1,703. ((14/16)*(7/16)^3*(4/16)^3*(14/16)^5=0.000587). But the bucs and panthers are much worse than last year, so the chances are probably a bit larger than 1 in 1,703.

On the other hand, for this to happen to a random team with a random schedule is very unlikely. Evidence of this is that it has never happened in NFL history before, as noted in that blog post.

So while the Redskin’s feat is impressive (or depressing?), I think they got the numbers wrong.

Cheers.

This. Is. Awesome.

Google is using aggregated counts of search terms to predict the prevalence of flu.

They say:
“We’ve found that certain search terms are good indicators of flu activity. Google Flu Trends uses aggregated Google search data to estimate current flu activity around the world in near real-time.”

Google Flu Trends. Watch the video.

Cheers.

So I’m slowly making my way through chapters 15-18 of Probability Essentials by Jacod and Protter and the introduction to chapter 16 mentions that C.F. Gauss used to be on the old German 10 Deutche Mark along with the normal pdf.

Here is a picture.

Cheers.

A few days ago as I was driving to work (ok, i don’t really have a job…..school), I heard on the radio that New York health care workers were protesting in Albany about being forced to get the regular seasonal flu vacine and then the H1N1 vaccine or be fired. Their argument that the vaccine has not been fully tested and may be unsafe. So is it safe and worth it? Almost definately yes.

From that same article: “State Health Commissioner Richard Daines MD, recently said in an open letter to health care workers, urging them not to resist, ‘Given the outstanding efficacy and safety record of approved influenza vaccines, our overriding concern then, as health care workers, should be the interests of our patients, not our own sensibilities about mandates.'”

Further, the CDC offers General Questions and Answers on 2009 H1N1 Influenza Vaccine Safety. From there:
Will the 2009 H1N1 influenza vaccines be safe?
“We expect the 2009 H1N1 influenza vaccine to have a similar safety profile as seasonal flu vaccines, which have a very good safety track record. Over the years, hundreds of millions of Americans have received seasonal flu vaccines. The most common side effects following flu vaccinations are mild, such as soreness, redness, tenderness or swelling where the shot was given. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) will be closely monitoring for any signs that the vaccine is causing unexpected adverse events and we will work with state and local health officials to investigate any unusual events.”

Past seasonal flu vaccines have been very successful in preventing the flu. See, for instance, the article from the New England Journal of Medicine, “The Effectiveness of Vaccination against Influenza in Healthy, Working Adults.” There is no reason to believe this flu should be different with regards to the efficacy of the vaccine. So the benefits of receiving the flu vaccine are relatively high.

Alternatively, some people are worried about Guillain-Barre Syndrome as a result of the Swine Flu vaccine. The CDC has this to say about Seasonal Flu and Guillain-Barré Syndrome (GBS). An article, “Vaccines and Guillain-Barré syndrome,” says in its abstract: “There is little evidence to support a causal association with most vaccines. The evidence for a causal association is strongest for the swine influenza vaccine that was used in 1976-77. Studies of influenza vaccines used in subsequent years, however, have found small or no increased risk of GBS.” Another article, “Guillain-Barré syndrome following influenza vaccination“, concludes that “From 1990 to 2003, VAERS reporting rates of GBS after influenza vaccination decreased. The long onset interval and low prevalence of other preexisting illnesses are consistent with a possible causal association between GBS and influenza vaccine. These findings require additional research, which can lead to a fuller understanding of the causes of GBS and its possible relationship with influenza vaccine.” The rates of infection were extremely low. They note, “The annual reporting rate decreased 4-fold from a high of 0.17 per 100,000 vaccinees in 1993-1994 to 0.04 in 2002-2003 (P<.001)." So there MAY be a causal relationship, but the risk is extremly low relative to the benefits. The deciusion will ultiamtely depend on how you define your loss function. And, as a wise friend once told me, everyone has a different loss function.

So everyone has to weight the upside of almost definately preventing the flu versus the downside of side effects of the drug which are usually mild. Severe reactions MAY cause GBS, but this is extremly rare. You are much, much more likely to be killed by the flu than GBS caused by a swine flu vaccine, especially if you are in one of the at risk groups for the flu.

Cheers.

Also, if interested, here is some good information on clinical trials.

Cheers.

A world first: Vaccine helps prevent HIV infection

Some more details about the trial.

Cheers.

Apparently there is something called “follow Friday” on Twitter. NISSSAMSI suggested StatsInTheWild last week.

Tweet:
“NISSSAMSI #FF @StatsInTheWild @tomanalytics @MathIsMyLife @numberonics @sallycmorton @Ron_Wasserstein @StatisticsNews @StatsMan2886 @statgrrl”

sallycmorton is the president of the American Statistical Association (ASA) and Ron_Wasserstein is the Exuctive Director of ASA. Not bad company.

Cheers.