NFL Picks – Week 5
New England at Tampa Bay
Prediction: Patriots 27-19
Pick: Patriots -6
Total: Under 55
Buffalo at Cincinnati
Prediction: Bengals 19-17
Pick: Bills +3
Total: Under 39.5
NY Jets at Cleveland
Prediction: Browns 19-14
Pick: Browns EVEN
Total: Under 39.5
San Francisco at Indianapolis
Prediction: 49ers 20-17
Pick: 49ers +1.5
Total: Under 44.5
Carolina at Detroit
Prediction: Panthers 21-18
Pick: Panthers +2.5
Total: Under 43.5
Tennessee at Miami
Prediction: Titans 24-18
Pick: Titans +1
Total: Over 41.5
LA Chargers at NY Giants
Prediction: Giants 20-19
Pick: Chargers +3.5
Total: Under 45
Arizona at Philadelphia
Prediction: Eagles 19-18
Pick: Cardinals +6.5
Total: Under 45.5
Jacksonville at Pittsburgh
Prediction: Steelers 24-13
Pick: Steelers -8
Total: Under 43
Baltimore at Oakland
Prediction: Raiders 19-18
Pick: Ravens +2.5
Total: Under 39
Seattle at LA Rams
Prediction: Seahawks 18-17
Pick: Seahawks EVEN
Total: Under 46.5
Green Bay at Dallas
Prediction: Packers 24-23
Pick: Packers +2
Total: Under 53
Kansas City at Houston
Prediction: Chiefs 20-15
Pick: Chiefs EVEN
Total: Under 46
Minnesota at Chicago
Prediction: Vikings 15-14
Pick: Bears +3.5
Total: Under 41
NFL Picks – Week 4
Chicago at Green Bay
Prediction: Packers 28-19
Pick: Packers -7
Total: Over 46
New Orleans at Miami
Prediction: Saints 24-23
Pick: Dolphins +3
Total: Over 49.5
Carolina at New England
Prediction: Patriots 27-17
Pick: Patriots -9
Total: Under 49
Jacksonville at NY Jets
Prediction: Jaguars 21-17
Pick: Jaguars -3.5
Total: Under 39.5
Tennessee at Houston
Prediction: Titans 22-20
Pick: Titans -1.5
Total: Under 44
Pittsburgh at Baltimore
Prediction: Steelers 23-21
Pick: Ravens +3
Total: Over 42
Cincinnati at Cleveland
Prediction: Bengals 20-19
Pick: Browns +3
Total: Under 41
Detroit at Minnesota
Prediction: Vikings 22-19
Pick: Vikings -2
Total: Under 43.5
LA Rams at Dallas
Prediction: Cowboys 28-16
Pick: Cowboys -6.5
Total: Under 48
Buffalo at Atlanta
Prediction: Falcons 31-19
Pick: Falcons -8.5
Total: Over 48.5
Philadelphia at LA Chargers
Prediction: Eagles 25-23
Pick: Eagles +1
Total: Over 47.5
San Francisco at Arizona
Prediction: Cardinals 28-15
Pick: Cardinals -7
Total: Under 44.5
NY Giants at Tampa Bay
Prediction: Buccaneers 24-18
Pick: Buccaneers -3
Total: Under 45
LA Raiders at Denver
Prediction: Broncos 22-20
Pick: Raiders +3
Total: Under 47
Indianapolis at Seattle
Prediction: Seahawks 26-15
Pick: Colts +13
Total: Under 41.5
Washington at Kansas City
Prediction: Chiefs 31-21
Pick: Chiefs -7
Total: Over 49.5
NFL Rankings – Week 4
- New England Patriots
- Dallas Cowboys
- Pittsburgh Steelers
- Green Bay Packers
- Atlanta Falcons
- Kansas City Chiefs
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Philadelphia Eagles
- Baltimore Ravens
- Oakland Raiders
- Seattle Seahawks
- Arizona Cardinals
- Tennessee Titans
- Denver Broncos
- Carolina Panthers
- Minnesota Vikings
- Cincinnati Bengals
- Detroit Lions
- New York Giants
- New Orleans Saints
- Los Angeles Chargers
- Miami Dolphins
- Chicago Bears
- Houston Texans
- Los Angeles Rams
- Cleveland Browns
- Jacksonville Jaguars
- Washington Football Team
- Buffalo Bills
- Indianapolis Colts
- San Francisco 49ers
- New York Jets
NFL Picks – Week 3
LA Rams at San Francisco
Prediction: Rams 23-19
Pick: Rams -3
Total: Over 39.5
Baltimore at Jacksonville
Prediction: Ravens 21-16
Pick: Ravens -3.5
Total: Under 39
Denver at Buffalo
Prediction: Broncos 20-16
Pick: Broncos -3
Total: Under 40
New Orleans at Carolina
Prediction: Saints 27-26
Pick: Saints +5.5
Total: Over 46.5
Pittsburgh at Chicago
Prediction: Steelers 30-20
Pick: Steelers -7.5
Total: Over 44
Cleveland at Indianapolis
Prediction: Colts 21-17
Pick: Colts +1.5
Total: Under 41
Atlanta at Detroit
Prediction: Lions 25-24
Pick: Lions +3
Total: Under 51
Tampa Bay at Minnesota
Prediction: Vikings 21-16
Pick: Vikings EVEN
Total: Under 41
Houston at New England
Prediction: Patriots 27-15
Pick: Texans +13.5
Total: Under 44.5
Miami at NY Jets
Prediction: Dolphins 24-16
Pick: Dolphins -6.5
Total: Under 43
NY Giants at Philadelphia
Prediction: Eagles 21-19
Pick: Giants +6.5
Total: Under 42.5
Seattle at Tennessee
Prediction: Seahawks 22-21
Pick: Seahawks +2.5
Total: Over 42.5
Cincinnati at Green Bay
Prediction: Packers 26-22
Pick: Bengals +9.5
Total: Over 46.5
Kansas City at LA Chargers
Prediction: Chargers 25-24
Pick: Chargers +3.5
Total: Over 48
Oakland at Washington
Prediction: Raiders 26-25
Pick: Washington Football Team +3.5
Total: Under 54.5
Dallas at Arizona
Prediction: Cardinals 27-24
Pick: Cardinals +3.5
Total: Over 47
NFL Rankings – Week 2
- New England Patriots
- Pittsburgh Steelers
- Atlanta Falcons
- Arizona Cardinals
- Kansas City Chiefs
- Philadelphia Eagles
- Green Bay Packers
- Seattle Seahawks
- Washington Football Team
- Detroit Lions
- Carolina Panthers
- Los Angeles Rams
- Houston Texans
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Indianapolis Colts
- Minnesota Vikings
- Dallas Cowboys
- New Orleans Saints
- Cincinnati Bengals
- Baltimore Ravens
- Jacksonville Jaguars
- Chicago Bears
- Cleveland Browns
- Tennessee Titans
- Oakland Raiders
- Miami Dolphins
- New York Giants
- San Francisco 49ers
- Buffalo Bills
- Denver Broncos
- Los Angeles Chargers
- New York Jets
NFL Picks – Week 2
Houston at Cincinnati
Prediction: Bengals 22-21
Pick: Texans +6.5
Total: Over 38
Buffalo at Carolina
Prediction: Panthers 27-18
Pick: Panthers -7.5
Total: Over 43
Arizona at Indianapolis
Prediction: Cardinals 24-19
Pick: Colts +7.5
Total: Under 44.5
Tennessee at Jacksonville
Prediction: Jaguars 20-17
Pick: Jaguars +2.5
Total: Under 43.5
Philadelphia at Kansas City
Prediction: Chiefs 24-21
Pick: Eagles +5.5
Total: Under 48
New England at New Orleans
Prediction: Patriots 34-23
Pick: Patriots -7
Total: Over 56 PUSH
Minnesota at Pittsburgh
Prediction: Steelers 26-13
Pick: Steelers -5.5
Total: Under 45.5
Cleveland at Baltimore
Prediction: Ravens 24-20
Pick: Browns +8
Total: Over 38.5
Chicago at Tampa Bay
Prediction: Buccaneers 26-21
Pick: Bears +7
Total: Over 43
NY Jets at Oakland
Prediction: Raiders 30-19
Pick: Jets +14
Total: Over 43.5
Miami at LA Chargers
Prediction: Dolphins 20-18
Pick: Dolphins +4.5
Total: Under 45.5
Dallas at Denver
Prediction: Cowboys 26-22
Pick: Cowboys -2.5
Total: Over 42
Washington at LA Rams
Prediction: Rams 24-22
Pick: Washington Football Team +3
Total: Under 46
San Francisco at Seattle
Prediction: Seahawks 26-15
Pick: 49ers +14
Total: Under 42
Green Bay at Atlanta
Prediction: Falcons 29-24
Pick: Falcons -2.5
Total: Under 54.5
Detroit at NY Giants
Prediction: Lions 27-23
Pick: Lions +3
Total: Over 43.5
Triggered – a look at the LSU judge sentencing paper
One of the reasons I love the application of statistics to sports is the unique ways in which sports can help us better understand human behavior.
I was thus excited to read** a working paper out of LSU’s Ozkan Eren and Naci Mocan that looked at how the sentencing of Louisiana judges in juvenile court varied given the performance of the state’s favorite football team, the LSU Tigers. The paper can be read here – alternatively, check out SB Nation’s summary here.
Using regression-based approaches on court decisions between 1996 and 2012, the authors write:
We show that upset losses of the LSU football team increase disposition (sentence) length imposed by judges, and that this effect persists throughout the work week following a Saturday game. On the other hand, losses of games that were expected to be close contests ex-ante, as well as upset wins have no impact. We…
View original post 709 more words
NFL Preview
This model is a bit insane. But I’m posting it anyway. Because why not. New England vs Washington in the Super Bowl. And the Browns make the playoffs. You heard it here first.
AFC
East
Patriots 12-4 (11.792)
Bills 8-8 (7.965)
Dolphins 6-10 (6.108)
Jets 5-11 (5.433)
North
Steelers 10-6 (10.374)
Baltimore 8-8 (8.433)
Browns 8-8 (8.280)
Bengals 7-9 (6.942)
South
Titans 9-7 (8.600)
Colts 8-8 (8.260)
Texans 7-9 (6.949)
Jaguars 7-9 (6.932)
West
Chiefs 10-6 (9.691)
Broncos (8-8) 7.599
Raiders 7-9 (6.976)
Chargers 7-9 (6.886)
NFC
East
Washington Football Team 10-6 (9.881)
Eagles 9-7 (9.190)
Cowboys 9-7 (9.084)
Giants 7-9 (7.465)
South
Falcons 10-6 (9.556)
Saints 8-8 (8.143)
Buccaneers 8-8 (7.827)
Panthers 8-8 (7.665)
North
Vikings 9-7 (8.543)
Packers 8-8 (8.203)
Bears 7-9 (6.932)
Lions 7-9 (6.912)
West
Cardinals 10-6 (9.564)
Seahawks 9-7 (9.176)
Rams 6-10 (5.665)
49ers 5-11 (5.072)
Playoffs
AFC
- Patriots
- Steelers
- Chiefs
- Titans
- Ravens
- Browns
NFC
- Washington Football Team
- Cardinals
- Falcons
- Vikings
- Seahawks
- Eagles
Wild Card Round
Chiefs over Browns 22-15
Titans over Ravens 22-20
Falcons over Eagles 28-25
Vikings over Seahawks 22-20
Divisional Round
Patriots over Titans 30-18
Steelers over Chiefs 24-20
Washington Football Team over Vikings 28-21
Cardinals over Falcons 27-26
Conference Championships
Patriots over Steelers 28-22
Washington Football Team over Cardinals 27-22
Super Bowl
Patriots over Washington Football Team 29-23
Rankings
- Patriots
- Steelers
- Washington Football Team
- Chiefs
- Falcons
- Eagles
- Cowboys
- Cardinals
- Seahawks
- Vikings
- Packers
- Ravens
- Saints
- Titans
- Buccaneers
- Broncos
- Bills
- Giants
- Browns
- Colts
- Panthers
- Raiders
- Chargers
- Lions
- Texans
- Bears
- Bengals
- Jaguars
- Dolphins
- Rams
- Jets
- 49ers
NFL Picks – Week 1
Kansas City at New England
Prediction: Patriots 25-18
Pick: Chiefs +9
Total: Under 48
NY Jets at Buffalo
Prediction: Bills 24-16
Pick: Bills -7.5
Total: Over 39.5
Atlanta at Chicago
Prediction: Falcons 27-22
Pick: Bears +7
Total: Under 49.5
Baltimore at Cincinnati
Prediction: Ravens 19-18
Pick: Ravens +3
Total: Under 42.5
Steelers at Browns
Prediction: Steelers 21-17
Pick: Browns +9
Total: Under 46.5
Arizona at Detroit
Prediction: Cardinals 22-20
Pick: Cardinals -1.5
Total: Under 48
Jacksonville at Houston
Prediction: Texans 20-16
Pick: Jaguars +6
Total: Under 40
Tampa Bay at Miami
Prediction: Buccaneers 22-20
Pick: Dolphins +2.5
Total: Over 41.5
Oakland at Tennessee
Prediction: Titans 22-18
Pick: Titans -2
Total: Under 51
Philadelphia at Washington
Prediction: Washington Football Team 25-20
Pick: Washington Football Team +1.5
Total:Under 47.5
Indianapolis at LA Rams
Prediction: Colts 22-19
Pick: Colts +3.5
Total: Under 41.5
Seattle at Green Bay
Prediction: Packers 23-22
Pick: Seahawks +3
Total: Under 50.5
Carolina at San Francisco
Prediction: Panthers 21-17
Pick: 49ers +6
Total: Under 48
NY Giants at Dallas Cowboys
Prediction: Cowboys 23-17
Pick: Cowboys -3.5
Total: Under 47.5
New Orleans at Minnesota
Prediction: Vikings 25-22
Pick: Saints +3.5
Total: Under 48 PUSH
LA Chargers at Denver
Prediction: Broncos 22-18
Pick: Broncos -3.5
Total: Under 43.5
How much water has Harvey dropped? A lot.
As of two days ago, Harvey had dumped around 9 trillion gallons of water. By yesterday, that number was up to 19 trillion gallons. And the number is expected to get as high as 25 trillion gallons.
25 Trillion! That’s 25,000,000,000,000. Gallons of water. Here is what 1 gallon of water looks like.
Now take a million of these and dump them from the sky. Then do THAT 25 million more times. It’s truly staggering. It’s literally like a lake of water.
For comparison, I’ve scraped the largest lakes in the US by volume from wikipedia and visualized them below. The data from wikipedia is in cubic kilometers, so I converted 25 trillion gallons to about 94.6 cubic kilometers.
Here is Harvey’s output compared to the Great Lakes. Not that impressive, but the Great Lakes are absolutely massive. (I can see Lake Michigan out my office window and it basically looks like an ocean.)
If we look at some smaller lakes, this starts to get outrageous. 25 trillion gallons of water is more than Lake Pend Oreille, Becharof Lake, and the Great Salt Lake. Like WAY more than the Great Salt Lake. Like almost 5 Great Salt Lakes! (Can that even be right? That must be a mistake.)
Here is how to donate to help the people of Houston (and avoid scams).
Cheers.
(My code to make this images is here.)
Stats in the Wild 