Why you need to be on Twitter
This post is part 2 of getting rid of my backlog of drafts. I wanted to write this after JSM in August, but a move to Chicago and starting a new job took up most of my time then. So here we are in October finally getting around to it.
Anyway, at this point in time, when someone tells me they aren’t on Twitter, my response is usually puzzlement followed by saying something like, “You’re making a huge mistake” or “Your loss”. People usually follow this up with, “well, I don’t care what you had for breakfast” (why is this the go to rebuttal to Twitter?)
Well I’m here to tell you (politely) that that is stupid. Twitter is an incredibly diverse community with an incredibly rich set of niche groups. You get to choose who to follow and you can create you’re own unique corner of the twitter world. I like sports (football, baseball, NCAA basketball), statistics, R, art, news, and humor. So I follow people or organizations that are tweeting about those things. What you like is different than me, and you can create your own corner of twitter.
Other people, who have similar interests to you, will also tend to follow the same accounts and sometimes you get to start conversation with these people. And then sometimes you get to meet this in person. This past JSM in August of 2014 I was lucky enough to get to meet one of these interesting people from Twitter. Sean Taylor, a member of Facebook’s data science team and the guy responsible for these awesome NFL fandom maps, contacted me via direct message to join him at a bar on evening. So, @statsbylopez and I met him (and Hadley Wickham and some other stats people) and had a fantastickly (is that a word?) interesting conversation with him. All because of twitter. And I assure you that we never talked about what we had for breakfast.
Still not convinced. I actually met @statsbylopez through twitter. We have similar interests and have, since meeting, collaborated (and won) a kaggle contest and written an academic paper together. He also recently came to speak at Loyola about overtime incentives in hockey. All because of twitter. (Side note: I picked him up from the airport the day of his talk, and we had a fantastic breakfast somewhere in Lincoln Park. I mean this breakfast was so good I want to Tweet about it. Wait that’s not my point!)
Twitter. Do it.
Cheers.
Chicago, Rahm, and Gun
I read this article, “Emanuel Puts Positive Spin On Chicago’s Violent Crime Problem”, a few weeks ago from the Daily Caller. It showed up in my twitter feed and I clicked on the link and read it not knowing the source of the article. As I read it, it seemed like a slightly reasonable, partisan argument against Rahm Emanuel and crime in Chicago. Then I got to the end of the article and it absolutely comes off the rails. The statistical squirming that takes place to cram the numbers into their ideology is bafflingly impressive.
The author basically argues that Emanuel’s record on violent crime, especially murder is not a very good one. They say:
Emanuel notes that murders in Chicago have declined thus far in 2014, as compared to 2010 and 2013. However, Emanuel was elected in May 2011, and from 2011 to 2012, Chicago’s murder rate increased 16 percent. Meanwhile, the aggregate murder rate of other cities of one million or greater population decreased three percent.
Fine, if you want to blame the rise in crime on Emanuel, that’s fine. Organizations with political agendas do this all the time. I hate it, but I understand that it’s more or less just politics.
But then they go on to say this:
Chicago’s crime problem may take a turn for the better, however. Recent court decisions have eliminated some of the most egregious violations of, and obstacles to, city residents’ exercise of their right to keep and bear arms.
In 2010, the Supreme Court struck down the city’s 32-year-old handgun ban in McDonald v. Chicago. In 2011, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Seventh Circuit struck down Chicago’s ban on shooting ranges in Ezell v. Chicago, saying “The right to possess firearms for protection implies a corresponding right to acquire and maintain proficiency in their use.” In 2012, the same court declared Illinois’ total ban on carrying firearms for protection unconstitutional, resulting in the state adopting a “shall issue” carry permit law the following year. And this year, the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Illinois struck down Chicago’s ban on firearm transfers.
Wait what? It was after reading these paragraphs that I went to check who the author was. It turned out to be some anonymous writer representing the NRA ILA. In that context, this makes sense.
So, let me lay out, in all its absurd glory, the argument in this article.
- Emanuel was elected in May 2011, and from 2011 to 2012, Chicago’s murder rate increased 16 percent. So blame Emanuel for the rise in violent crime.
- In 2010, the Supreme Court struck down Chicago’s hand gun ban. In 2011, the same court struck down a ban on firing ranges. But don’t blame guns for the rise in crime?
In the first case, X happened and then crime increased at a later date; Blame X for increase in crime. Then in the second case, X happened and then crime increased at a later date; BUT DON’T blame X for increase in crime. I guess when you’ve already made your mind up about what is right, the numbers don’t really matter.
Finally, let me be clear, I’m not anti-gun, but I am pro-not making stupid arguments. The causes of crime are an incredibly complex array of variables and factors and X happening and crime increasing at a later date is an incredibly naive way to see the world. The world just isn’t this simple. Complex problems often have complex causes. Does Rahm Emanuel deserve some blame for the rise in crime? Maybe. Do handguns deserve some blame? Maybe.
My point is that making up your mind about something before you’ve seen any evidence is a pretty terrible way to live (And this goes for you too “libs”.)
Cheers.
NFL Picks – Week 8
Total (weeks 1-8) – SU: 84-35-1 ATS: 60-58-2 O/U: 66-53-1
Week 1 – SU: 9-7-0 ATS: 8-8-0 O/U: 13-3-0
Week 2 – SU: 10-6-0 ATS: 10-6-0 O/U: 10-6-0
Week 3 – SU: 12-4-0 ATS: 9-6-1 O/U: 8-8-0
Week 4 – SU: 7-6-0 ATS: 5-7-1 O/U: 5-8-0
Week 5 – SU: 14-2-0 ATS: 6-9-0 O/U: 9-6-0
Week 6 – SU: 11-3-1 ATS: 8-7-0 O/U: 6-9-1
Week 7 – SU: 11-4-0 ATS: 7-8-0 O/U: 8-7-0
Week 8 – SU: 11-3-0 ATS: 7-7-0 O/U: 7-7-0
San Diego at Denver
Prediction: Broncos 28-22 (68.3%)
Pick: Chargers +8 (53.8%)
Total: Under 52.5
Philadelphia at Arizona
Prediction: Cardinals 23-22 (51.9%)
Pick: Eagles +2.5 (55.2%)
Total: Under 48.5
Detroit at Atlanta
Prediction: Falcons 24-23 (55.1%)
Pick: Falcons +4 (66.0%)
Total: Under 47
Seattle at Carolina
Prediction: Seahawks 22-21 (53.1%)
Pick: Panthers +5 (61.0%)
Total: Under 45
Baltimore at Cincinnati
Prediction: Bengals 23-20 (58.6%)
Pick: Bengals -1 (55.7%)
Total: Under 46
Oakland at Cleveland
Prediction: Browns 24-19 (63.1%)
Pick: Raiders +7 (56.6%)
Total: Under 44
Miami at Jacksonville
Prediction: Dolphins 22-19 (58.8%)
Pick: Jaguars +5.5 (56.8%)
Total: Under 43.5
St. Louis at Kansas City
Prediction: Chiefs 23-19 (61.9%)
Pick: Rams +7 (57.8%)
Total: Under 44
Chicago at New England
Prediction: Patriots 27-22 (65.1%)
Pick: Bears +6.5 (53.0%)
Total: Under 50.5
Green Bay at New Orleans
Prediction: Saints 27-25 (57.5%)
Pick: Saints -1 (54.6%)
Total: Under 56
Buffalo at NY Jets
Prediction: Jets 21-20 (53.6%)
Pick: Bills +3 (55.0%)
Total: Under 41
Indianapolis at Pittsburgh
Prediction: Steelers 24-22 (56.0%)
Pick: Steelers +3.5 (65.6%)
Total: Under 49
Minnesota at Tampa Bay
Prediction: Buccaneers 22-20 (55.8%)
Pick: Vikings +3 (52.7%)
Total: Under 42
Houston at Tennessee
Prediction: Texans 22-21 (51.0%)
Pick: Titans +1.5 (53.2%)
Total: Under 43.5
Washington at Dallas
Prediction: Cowboys 25-21 (60.8%)
Pick: Washington Football Team +10 (67%)
Total: Under 50.5
NCAA Football Top 25 – October 21, 2014
2014 NCAA Football Standings
Updated October 21, 2014
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Does Good Pitching Beat Good Hitting in the Playoffs?
With all the excitement surrounding playoff baseball this time of year, lots of people are talking about our favorite game. If your Twitter feed is like mine, then you’re seeing a lot of talk about what is going on in these games, but also a lot of criticism of the narratives promulgated by the mainstream media. Today, I’d like to explore one of the most popular narratives that comes up during playoff time: the notion that “good pitching beats good hitting in the playoffs.”
This argument was particularly germane to this year’s American League Championship Series, which pitted the offensively-challenged Kansas City Royals against the slugging Baltimore Orioles. As has been noted by many, the Royals ranked last in the AL in home runs this year, while the Orioles ranked first. Even by more sabermetric standards, the Orioles (4th in OPS+) were clearly a superior offensive team to…
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NFL Picks – Week 7
Total (weeks 1-6) – SU: 73-32-1 (68.9%) ATS: 53-51-2 (50.9%, -3.1 Units) O/U: 59-46-1 (56.1%, +8.4 Units)
Week 1 – SU: 9-7-0 ATS: 8-8-0 O/U: 13-3-0
Week 2 – SU: 10-6-0 ATS: 10-6-0 O/U: 10-6-0
Week 3 – SU: 12-4-0 ATS: 9-6-1 O/U: 8-8-0
Week 4 – SU: 7-6-0 ATS: 5-7-1 O/U: 5-8-0
Week 5 – SU: 14-2-0 ATS: 6-9-0 O/U: 9-6-0
Week 6 – SU: 11-3-1 ATS: 8-7-0 O/U: 6-9-1
Week 7 – SU: 11-4-0 ATS: 7-8-0 O/U: 8-7-0
NY Jets at New England
Prediction: Patriots 27-19 (72.7%)
Pick: Jets +10 (54.4%)
Total: Over 45.5
Atlanta at Baltimore
Prediction: Ravens 24-21 (57.4%)
Pick: Falcons +7 (62.3%)
Total: Under 49.5
Minnesota at Buffalo
Prediction: Bills 23-20 (58.4%)
Pick: Vikings +5.5 (57.15%)
Total: Over 42.5
Miami at Chicago
Prediction: Bears 24-20 (62.2%)
Pick: Bears -4 (51.0%)
Total: Under 49
NY Giants at Dallas
Prediction: Cowboys 24-21 (58.4%)
Pick: Giants +6.5 (60.0%)
Total: Under 48.5
San Francisco at Denver
Prediction: Broncos 24-21(58.8%)
Pick: 49ers +6.5 (59.5%)
Total: Under 51.5
New Orleans at Detroit
Prediction: Lions 25-24 (50.3%)
Pick: Saints +3 (58.17%)
Total: Over 48.5
Carolina at Green Bay
Prediction: Packers 26-22 (61.2%)
Pick: Panthers +7 (58.5%)
Total: Under 49
Cincinnati at Indianapolis
Prediction: Colts 24-23 (51.6%)
Pick: Bengals +3.5 (58.3%)
Total: Under 49.5
Cleveland at Jacksonville
Prediction: Browns 22-20 (56.4%)
Pick: Jaguars +6 (72.3%)
Total: Under 45
Arizona at Oakland
Prediction: Cardinals 22-20 (54.0%)
Pick: Raiders +4 (57.4%)
Total: Under 44
Kansas City at San Diego
Prediction: Chargers 24-20 (59.4%)
Pick: Chiefs +4 (51.9%)
Total: Under 45.5
Seattle at St. Louis
Prediction: Seahawks 23-19 (61.0%)
Pick: Rams +7 (58.8%)
Total: Under 43.5
Tennessee at Washington
Prediction: Washington Football Team 24-21 (59.4%)
Pick: Titans +6 (57.6%)
Total: Under 46.5
Houston at Pittsburgh
Prediction: Steelers 23-21 (55.8%)
Pick: Texans +3.5 (54.11%)
Total: Under 45
NCAA Top 25 – 10/13/2014
2014 NCAA Football Standings
Updated October 12, 2014
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NFL Picks – Week 6
Total (weeks 1-6) – SU: 62-28-1 ATS: 46-43-2 O/U: 51-39-1
Week 1 – SU: 9-7-0 ATS: 8-8-0 O/U: 13-3-0
Week 2 – SU: 10-6-0 ATS: 10-6-0 O/U: 10-6-0
Week 3 – SU: 12-4-0 ATS: 9-6-1 O/U: 8-8-0
Week 4 – SU: 7-6-0 ATS: 5-7-1 O/U: 5-8-0
Week 5 – SU: 14-2-0 ATS: 6-9-0 O/U: 9-6-0
Week 6 – SU: 11-3-1 ATS: 8-7-0 O/U: 6-9-1
Indianapolis at Houston
Prediction: Texans 24-21 (59.1%)
Pick: Texans +3 (67.2%)
Total: Under 46
Washington at Arizona
Prediction: Cardinals 22-21 (53.4%)
Pick: Washington Football Team +3.5 (56.5%)
Total: Under 45.5
Green Bay at Miami
Prediction: Packers 23-22 (54.1%)
Pick: Dolphins +3.5 (55.9%)
Total: Under 49.5
Chicago at Atlanta
Prediction: Falcons 25-24 (53.0%)
Pick: Bears +3 (55.5%)
Total: Under 54
New England at Buffalo
Prediction: Patriots 25-22 (58.9%)
Pick: Patriots -3 (50.4%)
Total: Over 45
Carolina at Cincinnati
Prediction: Bengals 23-20 (56.1%) (PUSH)
Pick: Panthers +7 (63.5%)
Total: Under 45
Pittsburgh at Cleveland
Prediction: Browns 22-21 (50.0%)
Pick: Steelers +2.5 (57.1%)
Total: Under 47
Detroit at Minnesota
Prediction: Lions 23-22 (52.7%)
Pick: Vikings +2 (53.0%)
Total: Over 44
Denver at NY Jets
Prediction: Broncos 24-21 (60.5%)
Pick: Jets +9 (64.7%)
Total: Under 48 (PUSH)
San Diego at Oakland
Prediction: Chargers 23-21 (55.4%)
Pick: Raiders +7.5 (65.6%)
Total: Over 43.5
Dallas at Seattle
Prediction: Seahawks 25-20 (65.5%)
Pick: Cowboys +8 (56.8%)
Total: Under 47.5
Baltimore at Tampa Bay
Prediction: Ravens 21-20 (51.7%)
Pick: Buccaneers +3.5 (58.2%)
Total: Under 43.5
Jacksonville at Tennessee
Prediction: Titans 24-17 (69.5%)
Pick: Titans -6 (58.2%)
Total: Under 44
NY Giants at Philadelphia
Prediction: Eagles 25-21 (59.9%)
Pick: Eagles -2.5 (52.89%)
Total: Under 50.5
San Francisco at St. Louis
Prediction: 49ers 23-19 (60.9%)
Pick: 49ers -3.5 (51.0%)
Total: Under 44
NCAA Football Rankings – 10/7/2014
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NFL Picks – Week 5
Total (weeks 1-4) – SU: 51-25-0 ATS: 38-36-2 O/U: 45-31-0
Week 1 – SU: 9-7-0 ATS: 8-8-0 O/U: 13-3-0
Week 2 – SU: 10-6-0 ATS: 10-6-0 O/U: 10-6-0
Week 3 – SU: 12-4-0 ATS: 9-6-1 O/U: 8-8-0
Week 4 – SU: 7-6-0 ATS: 5-7-1 O/U: 5-8-0
Week 5 – SU: 14-2-0 ATS: 6-9-0 O/U: 9-6-0
Minnesota at Green Bay
Prediction: Packers 26-20 (67.5%)
Pick: Vikings +9 (57.5%)
Total: Under 48
Chicago at Carolina
Prediction: Panthers 23-22 (54.9%)
Pick: Bears +2.5 (52.2%)
Total: Under 46
Houston at Dallas
Prediction: Cowboys 24-22 (55.0%)
Pick: Texans +6 (61.9%)
Total: Under 47
Arizona at Denver
Prediction: Broncos 26-20 (67.3%)
Pick: Cardinals +7.5 (53.5%)
Total: Under 49
Buffalo at Detroit
Prediction: Lions 24-20 (62.9%)
Pick: Bills +7 (56.7%)
Total: Under 44.5
Baltimore at Indianapolis
Prediction: Colts 23-22 (52.4%)
Pick: Ravens +3.5 (57.6%)
Total: Under 48
Pittsburgh at Jacksonville
Prediction: Steelers 24-19 (64.7%)
Pick: Jaguars +7 (54.9%)
Total: Under 46.5
Tampa Bay at New Orleans
Prediction: Saints 27-20 (68.5%)
Pick: Buccaneers +10 (59.2%)
Total: Under 48.5
Atlanta at NY Giants
Prediction: Giants 25-23 (54.7%)
Pick: Falcons +4 (56.6%)
Total: Under 50.5
St. Louis at Philadelphia
Prediction: Eagles 25-20 (64.0%)
Pick: Rams +7 (55.7%)
Total: Under 48
NY Jets at San Diego
Prediction: Chargers 23-19 (61.8%)
Pick: Jets +7 (57.9%)
Total: Under 44
Kansas City at San Francisco
Prediction: 49ers 24-17 (68.3%)
Pick: 49ers -6.5 (50.5%)
Total: Under 45
Cleveland at Tennessee
Prediction: Titans 23-21 (56.8%)
Pick: Browns +1.5 (52.5%)
Total: Under 44
Cincinnati at New England
Prediction: Patriots 26-22 (61.4%)
Pick: Patriots -2.5 (54.4%)
Total: Over 46
Seattle at Washington
Prediction: Seahawks 23-21 (57.7%)
Pick: Redskins +7.5 (76.7%)
Total: Under 46
Stats in the Wild 