the hurricane name study gets worse

Science!

scatterplot

HurricaneStudyKeyTableWithHighlights

Hurricane Name Study, how I wish I could quit you. But an inquiry prompted me to look some more. Again, you can download the data yourself and replicate their key model, Model 4 above, using the half-tweet’s worth of code I included earlier.

The table isn’t in the paper, only their supplemental materials. Notice there are two significant interaction effects: one for the dollar damage of a hurricane (highlighted in green), and the other for the minimum pressure (highlighted in yellow). Both are severity measures. You might think that because both coefficients have the same sign, they both are consistent with the story that, as hurricanes become more severe, the death rate goes up faster for “female hurricanes” than “male hurricanes.”

Hey, wait! Don’t more severe hurricanes have lower minimum pressure? Why, yes. You can confirm this several ways, but notice how the pink coefficient for the…

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Posted on June 11, 2014, in Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink. Leave a comment.

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