After their first 30 games, the Chicago Cubs were 24-6 with a winning percentage 0f 0.800.  How have they fared since?  Well, the Cubs are now through 51 games and are at 36-15 with a winning percentage of 0.706.  They’ve cooled off a bit since their blazing start (which isn’t surprising), but they still hold a 7.5 game lead in their division and are the only team in baseball with a winning percentage over 0.700.

After 30 games, I predicted that would win 103.41 games with a 95% prediction interval of (84.58, 122.24) and a 50% prediction interval of (96.93, 109.89).  After 51 games, my updated prediction is that they will win 102.90 games with a 95% prediction interval of (87.23, 118.58) and a 50% prediction interval of (97.51, 108.29).

Below you can see a plot of where the Cubs stand in relation to some of the all time winningest regular season teams.  Even with their “cooling off” the 2016 Cubs are still, at this point, ahead of the 1906 Cubs who went 116-36-3.

Cheers.