My most likely bracket #NCAA Tournament
Here is my bracket based entirely on my rankings using betting market data:
Nothing too interesting here. I’ve got all of the higher seeds winning all the games except for two first round upsets. I like Oklahoma State over Michigan and Rhode Island over Creighton.
I’ve got three first round upsets in this bracket, the 9, 10 and 11 seeds. That’s Seton Hall over Arkansas in one of the worst games of the first round, Kansas State over Cincinnati (if Wake Forest had beaten Kansas State I would have picked Wake Forest here; I really don’t like Cincinnati), and Wichita State over Dayton. Wichita State being a 10 seed is the most head scratching seeding of the tournament in my mind. They probably won’t be favored over Kentucky in the second round, but I’d guess that Kentucky won’t be favored by much more than 3 or 4 (Contrast that with North Carolina who would be favored over Seton Hall by about 12 or 13 points).
I’ve also got UCLA getting to the Elite 8 in this region over Kentucky, with North Carolina coming out of this bracket.
This is the most boring region in my bracket. Straight chalk the whole way with only Florida State with a small upset over Arizona. The Northwestern-Vanderbilt game features teams that have a combined 26 losses on the season with FIFTEEN of those belonging to Vanderbilt.
Another pretty boring region. I’ve got no upsets in the first round here and the only small upset I have is Virginia over Florida to make it to the Sweet Sixteen. I’ve got Villanova coming out of this region triumphing over Duke.
I have Villanova over Gonzaga by 1 point to make it back to the finals and I have North Carolina, also getting back to the finals, over Kansas by 3.5 points.
I think North Carolina gets back to the championship game, but this year they pull it off.
I’ll be posting some more brackets later tonight if I have time.