Author Archives: statsinthewild
NFL Predictions – Week 4
Season Total – W/L 37-27, Spread 39-25, O/U 30-34
Week 1 – W/L 9-7, Spread 11-5, O/U 8-8
Week 2 – W/L 11-5, Spread 9-7, O/U 8-8
Week 3 – W/L 8-8, Spread 8-8, O/U 9-7
Week 4 – W/L 9-7, Spread 11-5, O/U 5-11
Jacksonville at Cincinnati
Outcome: Bengals 27-20
Spread: Jaguars +7
Total: Over 46
Washington at Atlanta
Outcome: Falcons 22-21
Spread: Falcons +2
Total: Under 47.5
Houston at Buffalo
Outcome: Bills 33-16
Spread: Texans +17.5
Total: Over 47
Detroit at Chicago
Outcome: Bears 24-19
Spread: Bears -3
Total: Over 41.5
Carolina at Dallas
Outcome: Cowboys 26-22
Spread: Cowboys -4
Total: Under 51.5
Indianapolis at Miami
Outcome: Colts 21-20
Spread: Colts +2.5
Total: Under 42.5
Cleveland at Minnesota
Outcome: Vikings 25-24
Spread: Vikings +1
Total: Under 51.5
NY Giants at New Orleans
Outcome: Saints 25-20
Spread: Giants +7
Total: Under 51.5
Tennessee at NY Jets
Outcome: Titans 26-20
Spread: Titans -6
Total: Over 44
Kansas City at Philadelphia
Outcome: Chiefs 29-23
Spread: Eagles +7
Total: Under 54.5
Arizona at LA Rams
Outcome: Rams 28-24
Spread: Cardinals +4
Total: Under 54.5
Seattle at San Francisco
Outcome: 49ers 27-26
Spread: Seahawks +2.5
Total: Over 52
Baltimore at Denver
Outcome: Broncos 25-24
Spread: Ravens +1
Total: Over 44
Pittsburgh at Green Bay
Outcome: Packers 26-20
Spread: Packers -6
Total: Over 45
Tampa Bay at New England
Outcome: Buccaneers 27-23
Spread: Patriots +7
Total: Under 50
Las Vegas at LA Chargers
Outcome: Chargers 29-23
Spread: Chargers -3
Total: Under 52
NFL Predictions – Week 3
Season Total – W/L 28-20, Spread 28-20, O/U 25-23
Week 1 – W/L 9-7, Spread 11-5, O/U 8-8
Week 2 – W/L 11-5, Spread 9-7, O/U 8-8
Week 3 – W/L 8-8, Spread 8-8, O/U 9-7
Carolina at Houston
Outcome: Panthers 19-18
Spread: Texans +9
Total: Under 43
Washington at Buffalo
Outcome: Bills 21-17
Spread: Washington Football Team +7
Total: Under 45.5
Chicago at Cleveland
Outcome: Browns 31-23
Spread: Browns -7.5
Total: Over 45
Baltimore at Detroit
Outcome: Ravens 28-25
Spread: Lions +7.5
Total: Over 51
Arizona at Jacksonville
Outcome: Cardinals 26-25
Spread: Jaguars +8
Total: Under 51.5
LA Chargers at Kansas City
Outcome: Chiefs 29-25
Spread: Chargers +4
Total: Under 54.5
New Orleans at New England
Outcome: Patriots 22-20
Spread: Saints +2.5
Total: Under 43.5
Atlanta at NY Giants
Outcome: Giants 27-22
Spread: Giants -2.5
Total: Over 47.5
Indianapolis at Tennessee
Outcome: Titans 29-25
Spread: Colts +4.5
Total: Under 54
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh
Outcome: Steelers 27-22
Spread: Steelers -2.5
Total: Over 42
NY Jets at Denver
Outcome: Broncos 28-13
Spread: Broncos -10
Total: Under 41.5
Miami at Las Vegas
Outcome: Miami 24-22
Spread: Dolphins +3.5
Total: Over 45
Seattle at Minnesota
Outcome: Seahawks 28-24
Spread: Seahawks -1.5
Total: Under 54
Tampa Bay at LA Rams
Outcome: Buccaneers 27-23
Spread: Buccaneers -1
Total: Under 55
Green Bay at San Francisco
Outcome: 49ers 26-25
Spread: Packers +3.5
Total: Over 50.5
Philadelphia at Dallas
Outcome: Cowboys 29-21
Spread: Cowboys -3.5
Total: Under 51.5
NFL Predictions – Week 2
Season Total – W/L 20-12, Spread 20-12, O/U 16-16
Week 1 – W/L 9-7, Spread 11-5, O/U 8-8
Week 2 – W/L 11-5, Spread 9-7, O/U 8-8
NY Giants at Washington Football Team
Outcome: Football Team 23-16
Spread: Football Team -4
Total: Under 41
New Orleans at Carolina
Outcome: Panthers 22-21
Spread: Panther +3.5
Total: Under 45
Cincinnati at Chicago
Outcome: Bears 25-19
Spread: Bears -2
Total: Under 44.5
Houston at Cleveland
Outcome: Browns 36-15
Spread: Browns -13.5
Total: Over 48
LA Rams at Indianapolis
Outcome: Rams 24-18
Spread: Rams -3.5
Total: Under 48
Denver at Jacksonville
Outcome: Broncos 26-17
Spread: Broncos -6
Total: Under 45
Buffalo at Miami
Outcome: Bills 27-23
Spread: Bills -3.5
Total: Over 47.5
New England at NY Jets
Outcome: Patriots 23-20
Spread: Jets +6
Total: Over 42.5
San Francisco at Philadelphia
Outcome: Eagles 25-22
Spread: Eagles +3
Total: Under 49.5
Las Vegas at Pittsburgh
Outcome: Steelers 25-23
Spread: Raiders +6.5
Total: Over 47
Minnesota at Arizona
Outcome: Cardinals 28-26
Spread: Vikings +3.5
Total: Over 51
Atlanta at Tampa Bay
Outcome: Buccaneers 26-23
Spread: Falcons +12.5
Total: Under 51.5
Dallas at LA Chargers
Outcome: Chargers 30-18
Spread: Chargers -3
Total: Under 55.5
Tennessee at Seattle
Outcome: Seahawks 26-25
Spread: Titans +6.5
Total: Under 54
Kansas City at Baltimore
Outcome: Chiefs 27-26
Spread: Ravens +4
Total: Under 54.5
Detroit at Green Bay
Outcome: Packers 36-15
Spread: Packers -11.5
Total: Over 48.5
The Statsinthewild Annual Wildly Uninformed 2021 NFL Preview!
Welcome!
Predicted Records
Predicted median records (Expected number of wins) Playoff Teams in bold
AFC East
Buffalo Bills 11-6 (11.179)
New England Patriots 10-6 (9.933)
Miami Dolphins 9-8 (8.538)
NY Jets 5-12 (5.323)
AFC North
Pittsburgh Steelers 10-7 (10.070)
Cleveland Browns 9-8 (9.201)
Baltimore Ravens 9-8 (8.803)
Cincinnati Bengals 4-13 (3.818)
AFC South
Indianapolis Colts 10-7 (9.826)
Tennessee Titans 9-8 (8.641)
Houston Texans 7-10 (7.404)
Jacksonville Jaguars 5-12 (4.562)
AFC West
Kansas City Chiefs 12-5 (12.164)
Las Vegas Raiders 10-7 (9.512)
Los Angeles Chargers 9-8 (8.717)
Denver Broncos 9-8 (8.603)
NFC East
Philadelphia Eagles 8-9 (7.854)
Washington Football Team 8-9 (7.603)
Dallas Cowboys 6-11 (5.930)
NY Giants 6-11 (5.514)
NFC North
Green Bay Packers 11-6 (10.788)
Minnesota Vikings 8-9 (8.331)
Chicago Bears 7-11 (7.489)
Detroit Lions 6-11 (5.904)
NFC South
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 11-6 (11.399)
New Orleans Saints 10-7 (10.068)
Atlanta Falcons 8-9 (8.294)
Carolina Panthers 8-9 (7.804)
NFC West
Los Angeles Rams 11-6 (11.144)
Seattle Seahawks 11-6 (10.687)
Arizona Cardinals 9-8 (8.684)
San Francisco 49ers 8-9 (8.213)
Playoff Prediction
AFC Seeds
- Chiefs
- Bills
- Steelers
- Colts
- Raiders
- Patriots
- Browns
NFC Seeds
- Buccaneers
- Rams
- Packers
- Eagles
- Seahawks
- Saints
- Cardinals
AFC Wild Card Round
Bills over Browns, 28-18
Steelers over Patriots, 23-18
Colts over Raiders, 29-25
NFC Wild Card Round
Rams over Cardinals, 28-20
Packers over Saints, 26-25
Seahawks over Eagles, 27-21
AFC Divisional Round
Chiefs over Colts, 32-24
Bills over Steelers, 24-20
NFC Divisional Round
Buccaneers over Seahawks, 26-24
Rams over Packers, 27-22
AFC Championship
Chiefs over Bills, 30-26
NFC Championship
Rams over Buccaneers, 24-23
Super Bowl
Chiefs over Rams, 28-24
Cheers!
NFL Predictions – Week 1
Results
Week 1: W/L 9-7, Spread 11-5, O/U 8-8
Week 1 Picks
Dallas at Tampa Bay
Outcome: Buccaneers 32-17
Spread: Buccaneers -9
Total: Under 52
Philadelphia at Atlanta
Outcome: Falcons 25-22
Spread: Eagles +3.5
Total: Under 48.5
Pittsburgh at Buffalo
Outcome: Bills 25-21
Spread: Steelers +6.5
Total: Under 48.5
NY Jets at Carolina
Outcome: Panthers 28-19
Spread: Panthers -4
Total: Over 44
Minnesota at Cincinnati
Outcome: Vikings 28-18
Spread: Viking -3
Total: Under 47.5
Seattle at Indianapolis
Outcome: Seahawks 25-24
Spread: Colts +3
Total: Over 49
San Francisco at Detroit
Outcome: 49ers 26-23
Spread: Lions +8.5
Total: Over 45
Jacksonville at Houston
Outcome: Texans 31-22
Spread: Texans +3
Total: Over 45
Arizona at Tennessee
Outcome: Titans 27-25
Spread: Cardinals +3
Total: Over 52
LA Chargers at Washington Football team
Outcome: Football Team 21-20
Spread: Chargers +1
Total: Under 44.5
Cleveland at Kansas City
Outcome: Chiefs 32-23
Spread: Chiefs -5.5
Total: Over 54.5
Green Bay at New Orleans
Outcome: Saints 26-25
Spread: Saints +3.5
Total: Over 50
Miami at New England
Outcome: Patriots 22-17
Spread: Patriots -3
Total: Under 43.5
Denver at NY Giants
Outcome: Broncos 23-20
Spread: Broncos -3
Total: Over 42
Chicago at LA Rams
Outcome: Rams 27-16
Spread: Rams -7.5
Total: Under 46.5
Baltimore at Las Vegas
Outcome: Raiders 27-25
Spread: Raiders +4
Total: Over 50.5
Regression on Angular Data
So, I’ve been working on missing data in statistical shape analysis for the last several years and one question that has popped up out of this is how would we deal with missing data for angular data (this question is related to how to deal with missing data in shapes, i swear). So, as part of this I’ve been reading about regression models for angular data and angular data in general.
Here are some links to papers on the topic:
- A general angular regression model for the analysis of data on animal movement in ecology (2016)
- Regression models for angular response (1992)
- One Direction? A Tutorial for Circular Data Analysis Using R With Examples in Cognitive Psychology (2018)
I graduated with a Ph.D. in statistics ten years ago, and I start studying statistics almost 20 years ago, and I’ve never ever thought about angular data analysis until now. I’m just constantly amazing by how little I know. There is just too much stuff.
Cheers.
Snowflakes
I saw on Flowing Data this Snowflake Generator. It’s way cooler than my snowflake generator.
Cheers.
Euro 2020: Some thoughts.
Here is a plot I made showing which seeds advanced to the round of eight (green), eliminated in round of 16 (blue), or eliminated in the group stage (black).
Some thoughts:
- The only group that didn’t advance anyone to the final 8 was the “group of death”, group F. France, Germany, and Portugal all lost their games in the Round of 16. That’s the last two World Cup Champions and the last Euro Champion all eliminated.
- Of the 8 teams to advance, three of them finished third in their group.
- One 3 of the 6 group winners advanced to the Quarterfinals (England, Italy, Belgium).
- Groups A, B, and D each had two teams advance.
- Belgium and Italy who play each other in the Quarterfinals combined for 6 wins, 0 losses, 0 ties, and 18 points in group play. The other 6 teams earned 26 points TOTAL from 7 wins, 7 losses, and 4 ties.
- Two teams in the final 8 had two losses in the group stage (Denmark and Ukraine).
- There were 7 teams that had 0 losses in the group stage. Only 3 advanced to the Quarterfinals (Spain, Belgium, Italy). And all three of these teams are on the same side of the bracket.
If you are wondering how the matchups in the knockout stage were decided, check out this wikipedia page.
Cheers. And go Denmark, Switzerland, and Czech Republic!