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NFL Picks – Week 10
Total (weeks 1-9) – SU: 87-56 ATS: 74-68-4 O/U: 94-59-2
Week 1 – SU: 10-6 ATS: 10-6 O/U: 11-5
Week 2 – SU: 8-8 ATS: 9-7 O/U: 9-7
Week 3 – SU: 10-6 ATS: 2-14 O/U: 7-8-1
Week 4 – SU: 10-5 ATS: 9-6 O/U: 9-6
Week 5 – SU: 7-7 ATS: 9-4-1 O/U: 6-8
Week 6 – SU: 12-2 ATS: 9-4-1 O/U: 8-6
Week 7 – SU: 10-4 ATS: 6-8 O/U: 10-4
Week 8 – SU: 9-5 ATS: 7-5-2 O/U: 7-7
Week 9 – SU: 8-5 ATS: 5-8 O/U: 8-5
Week 10 – SU: 5-9 ATS: 8-6 O/U: 9-3-2
Buffalo at NY Jets
Prediction: Jets 21-19
Pick: Jets -1.5
Total: Under 41.5
Detroit at Green Bay
Prediction: Packers 27-21
Pick: Lions +11
Total: Under 49
Dallas at Tampa Bay
Prediction: Cowboys 23-20
Pick: Cowboys +1.5
Total: Under 43.5
Carolina at Tennessee
Prediction: Panthers 22-20
Pick: Titans +5.5
Total: Under 44
Chicago at St. Louis
Prediction: Rams 21-19
Pick: Bears +7
Total: Under 42.5
New Orleans at Washington
Prediction: Saints 27-25
Pick: Saints -1
Total: Over 50
Miami at Philadelphia
Prediction: Eagles 26-22
Pick: Dolphins +6
Total: Under 49
Cleveland at Pittsburgh
Prediction: Steelers 25-20
Pick: Steelers -5
Total: Over 41.5
Jacksonville at Baltimore
Prediction: Ravens 25-17
Pick: Ravens -5.5
Total: Under 47.5
Minnesota at Oakland
Prediction: Vikings 22-21
Pick: Vikings +3
Total: Under 44 PUSH
Kansas City at Denver
Prediction: Broncos 25-20
Pick: Chiefs +6
Total: Over 42 PUSH
New England at NY Giants
Prediction: Patriots 27-24
Pick: Giants +7
Total: Under 54.5
Arizona at Seattle
Prediction: Seahawks 24-17
Pick: Seahawks -3
Total: Under 45
Houston at Cincinnati
Prediction: Bengals 24-20
Pick: Texans +10.5
Total: Under 47.5
Which sport?
I went the the Cubs game today against the Dodgers. I got to see Clayton Kershaw pitch (Awesome) and watch the Cubs get destroyed (Expected). It was 14-3 going into the 9th inning and some people were joking that a touchdown would get the Cubs right back in the game. (The Cubs “rallied” for two in the 9th to ultimately lose 14-5.)
But, this got me thinking. 14-3 does look like a football score, but 14-5 is clearly not. On the train back to school, I came up with this question: If all you knew about a game was the score, which sport would you guess generated that score?
To answer this question, I scraped the scores of (almost) all of the baseball and hockey games from 2000-2014, and I found a table of all NFL scores all-time. (I haven’t exhaustively scraped every single NHL and MLB game ever because…
View original post 247 more words
Visualizing the top 10 hitters of all time
I recently submitted by entry to this Major League baseball data visualization contest. My entry is below (click on it and zoom in and out to see each graph):
Each graph displays games played, home runs, stolen bases, hits, and on base percentage per season for each player as well as their career on base percentage. Hits are represented by the color of the bars (darker equals more hits), the width on the bottom of the bar is game played and the width of the top of the bar is home runs. The dashed line is career on base percentage and the dot represented the on base percentage in a given season. The diameter of the dot displays the number of stolen bases for a given season.
I don’t think I have a chance to win because apparently you were supposed to visualize the top 10 hitter AND (not OR) the top ten pitchers. Oh well. I think my plots are still pretty cool.
Cheers.
AUC poem
It may tell us if what we predict is right.
Like where Anton may spend the night.
This is what Randy needs to know.
So the area-under-the-curve (AUC) can’t be too low.
Can you just handle all the suspense?
And will you then give my trilogy a chance?
If so, I do hope you give it more than 50 percent.
If I do say so myself, it would be money well spent.
My Amazing Grandmother
My grandmother passed away Wednesday night. She was 93 years old. She had 9 children, 14 grandchildren, and 10 great-grandchildren.
Amazing.
Here is an excerpt from her obituary:
Pauline would eventually meet her future husband, Lieutenant Michael Toms, on a ship heading for Pearl Harbor, Hawaii, where they would both survive the infamous attack on December 7, 1941.
Amazing.
Also, here is a joke that she told at Thanksgiving or Christmas a few years ago:
Two guys were sitting in a room in their nursing home with the door open. Some women in the nursing home thought the men weren’t getting enough excitement and decided to run past the door naked. The men saw the women streak by out of the corners of their eyes. One of the men asked the other, “Did you see that? What were they wearing?” The other man responded, “I don’t know, but it needs to be ironed.”
Amazing.
Pauline Evelyn Toms (1922-2015)
NFL Predictions – Week 9
Total (weeks 1-9) – SU: 83-47 ATS: 66-62-4 O/U: 75-56-1
Week 1 – SU: 10-6 ATS: 10-6 O/U: 11-5
Week 2 – SU: 8-8 ATS: 9-7 O/U: 9-7
Week 3 – SU: 10-6 ATS: 2-14 O/U: 7-8-1
Week 4 – SU: 10-5 ATS: 9-6 O/U: 9-6
Week 5 – SU: 7-7 ATS: 9-4-1 O/U: 6-8
Week 6 – SU: 13-2 ATS: 9-4-1 O/U: 8-6
Week 7 – SU: 10-4 ATS: 6-8 O/U: 10-4
Week 8 – SU: 9-5 ATS: 7-5-2 O/U: 7-7
Week 9 – SU: 8-5 ATS: 5-8 O/U: 8-5
Cleveland at Cincinnati
Prediction: Bengals 25-19
Pick: Browns +13
Total: Under 45.5
Tennessee at New Orleans
Prediction: Saints 28-20
Pick: Saints -7.5
Total: Over 48
Miami at Buffalo
Prediction: Bills 22-21
Pick: Dolphins +3
Total: Under 44
Washington at New England
Prediction: Patriots 29-21
Pick: Washington Football Team +14
Total: Under 52
Jacksonville at NY Jets
Prediction: Jets 23-17
Pick: Jets -2.5
Total: Under 42.5
Oakland at Pittsburgh
Prediction: Steelers 25-19
Pick: Steelers -4.5
Total: Under 48
St. Louis at Minnesota
Prediction: Vikings 21-18 (NAILED IT!)
Pick: Vikings -2
Total: Under 40
Green Bay at Carolina
Prediction: Packers 24-23
Pick: Panthers +2.5
Total: Over 46
NY Giants at Tampa Bay
Prediction: Giants 22-21
Pick: Buccaneers +2.5
Total: Under 49.5
Atlanta at San Francisco
Prediction: 49ers 23-21
Pick: 49ers +7
Total: Under 44.5
Denver at Indianapolis
Prediction: Broncos 25-23
Pick: Colts +5.5
Total: Over 45
Philadelphia at Dallas
Prediction: Cowboys 25-23
Pick: Cowboys +3
Total: Over 44
Chicago at San Diego
Prediction: Chargers 25-21
Pick: Chargers -4
Total: Under 49.5
NFL Picks – Week 8
Total (weeks 1-8) – SU: 75-42 ATS: 61-54-4 O/U: 67-51-1
Week 1 – SU: 10-6 ATS: 10-6 O/U: 11-5
Week 2 – SU: 8-8 ATS: 9-7 O/U: 9-7
Week 3 – SU: 10-6 ATS: 2-14 O/U: 7-8-1
Week 4 – SU: 10-5 ATS: 9-6 O/U: 9-6
Week 5 – SU: 7-7 ATS: 9-4-1 O/U: 6-8
Week 6 – SU: 13-2 ATS: 9-4-1 O/U: 8-6
Week 7 – SU: 10-4 ATS: 6-8 O/U: 10-4
Week 8 – SU: 9-5 ATS: 7-5-2 O/U: 7-7
Miami at New England
Prediction: Patriots 29-22
Pick: Dolphins +8
Total: Under 51.5
Detroit at Kansas City
Prediction: Chiefs 24-21
Pick: Lions +4
Total: Under 45.5
Minnesota at Chicago
Prediction: Bears 22-21
Pick: Bears EVEN
Total: Over 42.5
Tampa Bay at Atlanta
Prediction: Falcons 26-20
Pick: Buccaneers +7
Total: Under 48.5
NY Giants at New Orleans
Prediction: Saints 27-23
Pick: Saints -3 PUSH
Total: Over 49.5
San Francisco at St. Louis
Prediction: 49ers 20-19
Pick: 49ers +8
Total: Under 39.5
Arizona at Cleveland
Prediction: Cardinals 22-21
Pick: Browns +6
Total: Under 46
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh
Prediction: Steelers 23-22
Pick: Bengals +1.5
Total: Under 48.5
San Diego at Baltimore
Prediction: Ravens 24-22
Pick: Chargers +3 PUSH
Total: Under 50.5
Tennessee at Houston
Prediction: Texans 24-19
Pick: Texans -4
Total: Under 43.5
NY Jets at Oakland
Prediction: Jets 21-20
Pick: Raiders +3
Total: Under 44.5
Seattle at Dallas
Prediction: Seahawks 22-20
Pick: Cowboys +6
Total: Over 41
Green Bay at Denver
Prediction: Broncos 25-23
Pick: Broncos +2.5
Total: Over 45.5
Indianapolis at Carolina
Prediction: Panthers 24-22
Pick:Colts +7
Total: Under 46.5
The greatest Royal/Met
A while ago I wrote a little Python code that used career data from Baseball-Reference Play Index (the best $36/year a number-loving baseball fan can spend) to answer the question: given a pair of teams, which player contributed the most to both teams? My metric for this is
(WAR for team 1 * WAR for team 2)
in order to privilege players who balanced their contributions to both teams.
So who was the greatest Royal/Met? In retrospect, this should have been obvious. How many of the top 5 can you guess?
View original post 57 more words
NFL Picks – Week 7
Total (weeks 1-7) – SU: 68-37 ATS: 54-49-2 O/U: 60-44-1
Week 1 – SU: 10-6 ATS: 10-6 O/U: 11-5
Week 2 – SU: 8-8 ATS: 9-7 O/U: 9-7
Week 3 – SU: 10-6 ATS: 2-14 O/U: 7-8-1
Week 4 – SU: 10-5 ATS: 9-6 O/U: 9-6
Week 5 – SU: 7-7 ATS: 9-4-1 O/U: 6-8
Week 6 – SU: 13-2 ATS: 9-4-1 O/U: 8-6
Week 7 – SU: 10-4 ATS: 6-8 O/U: 10-4
Seattle at San Francisco
Prediction: Seahawks 21-19
Pick: 49ers +6.5
Total: Under 42.5
Buffalo at Jacksonville
Prediction: Bills 21-19
Pick: Jaguars +4
Total: Under 41
Cleveland at St. Louis
Prediction: Rams 22-19
Pick: Browns +6
Total: Under 42
Pittsburgh at Kansas City
Prediction: Chiefs 22-21
Pick: Chiefs +2
Total: Under 44.5
Houston at Miami
Prediction: Dolphins 24-22
Pick: Texans +4.5
Total: Over 44.5
New York Jets at New England
Prediction: Patriots 27-20
Pick: Jets +9
Total: Under 48
Minnesota at Detroit
Prediction: Lions 24-21
Pick: Lions +2.5
Total: Over 44.5
Atlanta at Tennessee
Prediction: Falcons 24-22
Pick: Titans +5
Total: Under 47
Tampa Bay at Washington
Prediction: Washington Football Teams 23-19
Pick: Washington Football Team -3.5
Total: Under 43
New Orleans at Indianapolis
Prediction: Colts 26-25
Pick: Saints +4.5
Total: Under 52
Oakland at San Diego
Prediction: Chargers 26-19
Pick: Chargers -4
Total: Under 47
Dallas at New York Giants
Prediction: Giants 23-22
Pick: Cowboys +3.5
Total: Over 45
Philadelphia at Carolina
Prediction: Panthers 24-23
Pick: Eagles +3
Total: Under 46
Baltimore at Arizona
Prediction: Cardinals 22-21
Pick: Ravens +9
Total: Under 48
There are an unexpectedly large number of undefeated NFL teams left
Through 6 weeks of the NFL season, there are currently five (FIVE!?!?!) undefeated teams in the NFL: The Patriots, Bengals, Broncos, Panthers, and Packers. This seems like a lot.
So, as suggested by someone on twitter, I ran a simulation to see how rare this was. I actually ran 2 quick simulations, the first assuming that each game was a coin flip and the second using the point spread as an implied win probability.
First Simulation
Let’s assume that each game is a coin flip. A winner and loser is chosen for each game using the actual schedule, and we count how many teams are undefeated after 6 weeks. I simulated the first 6 weeks of the season 100000 times. How often should we expect to see 5 undefeated teams if all games are a coin flip? Basically never.
In just about 50% of the simulations there were 0 undefeated teams. There were 1, 2, and 3 undefeated teams left in about 37.5%, 11%, and 1.8% of simulations. In another 147 out of the 100000 simulations, there were 4 undefeated teams, which leaves only 10 of those 100000 seasons were there 5 undefeated teams (and never more than 5). So if games were truly coin flips, we’d basically never see 5 undefeated teams after 6 weeks given this current schedule. But games aren’t coin flips. So we can do a bit better.
Second Simulation
Using the point spreads for the first six weeks of the 2015 NFL season, implied win probabilities were calculated for each game. Game were then simulated based on these implied probabilities from the point spread. I only ran 10,000 simulations here, but the results are largely the same. It’s very rare to see 5 undefeated teams.
In 10,000 simulations, there were 0 undefeated teams 6 weeks into the season about 40% of the time. There were 1, 2, or 3 undefeated teams about 40% , 16%, and 3.2%, respectively. In 26 simulations there were there 4 undefeated teams and finally, in only 4 simulations were there 5 undefeated teams. Even when we account for the individual game win probabilities, it’s still incredibly unlikely to see 5 undefeated teams after 6 weeks.
Finally, here’s a table for the number of times each individual team was undefeated in 10,000 simulated seasons based on implied win probabilities based on the spread.
Cheers.
Stats in the Wild 