Category Archives: Uncategorized
Does Good Pitching Beat Good Hitting in the Playoffs?
With all the excitement surrounding playoff baseball this time of year, lots of people are talking about our favorite game. If your Twitter feed is like mine, then you’re seeing a lot of talk about what is going on in these games, but also a lot of criticism of the narratives promulgated by the mainstream media. Today, I’d like to explore one of the most popular narratives that comes up during playoff time: the notion that “good pitching beats good hitting in the playoffs.”
This argument was particularly germane to this year’s American League Championship Series, which pitted the offensively-challenged Kansas City Royals against the slugging Baltimore Orioles. As has been noted by many, the Royals ranked last in the AL in home runs this year, while the Orioles ranked first. Even by more sabermetric standards, the Orioles (4th in OPS+) were clearly a superior offensive team to…
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NFL Picks – Week 7
Total (weeks 1-6) – SU: 73-32-1 (68.9%) ATS: 53-51-2 (50.9%, -3.1 Units) O/U: 59-46-1 (56.1%, +8.4 Units)
Week 1 – SU: 9-7-0 ATS: 8-8-0 O/U: 13-3-0
Week 2 – SU: 10-6-0 ATS: 10-6-0 O/U: 10-6-0
Week 3 – SU: 12-4-0 ATS: 9-6-1 O/U: 8-8-0
Week 4 – SU: 7-6-0 ATS: 5-7-1 O/U: 5-8-0
Week 5 – SU: 14-2-0 ATS: 6-9-0 O/U: 9-6-0
Week 6 – SU: 11-3-1 ATS: 8-7-0 O/U: 6-9-1
Week 7 – SU: 11-4-0 ATS: 7-8-0 O/U: 8-7-0
NY Jets at New England
Prediction: Patriots 27-19 (72.7%)
Pick: Jets +10 (54.4%)
Total: Over 45.5
Atlanta at Baltimore
Prediction: Ravens 24-21 (57.4%)
Pick: Falcons +7 (62.3%)
Total: Under 49.5
Minnesota at Buffalo
Prediction: Bills 23-20 (58.4%)
Pick: Vikings +5.5 (57.15%)
Total: Over 42.5
Miami at Chicago
Prediction: Bears 24-20 (62.2%)
Pick: Bears -4 (51.0%)
Total: Under 49
NY Giants at Dallas
Prediction: Cowboys 24-21 (58.4%)
Pick: Giants +6.5 (60.0%)
Total: Under 48.5
San Francisco at Denver
Prediction: Broncos 24-21(58.8%)
Pick: 49ers +6.5 (59.5%)
Total: Under 51.5
New Orleans at Detroit
Prediction: Lions 25-24 (50.3%)
Pick: Saints +3 (58.17%)
Total: Over 48.5
Carolina at Green Bay
Prediction: Packers 26-22 (61.2%)
Pick: Panthers +7 (58.5%)
Total: Under 49
Cincinnati at Indianapolis
Prediction: Colts 24-23 (51.6%)
Pick: Bengals +3.5 (58.3%)
Total: Under 49.5
Cleveland at Jacksonville
Prediction: Browns 22-20 (56.4%)
Pick: Jaguars +6 (72.3%)
Total: Under 45
Arizona at Oakland
Prediction: Cardinals 22-20 (54.0%)
Pick: Raiders +4 (57.4%)
Total: Under 44
Kansas City at San Diego
Prediction: Chargers 24-20 (59.4%)
Pick: Chiefs +4 (51.9%)
Total: Under 45.5
Seattle at St. Louis
Prediction: Seahawks 23-19 (61.0%)
Pick: Rams +7 (58.8%)
Total: Under 43.5
Tennessee at Washington
Prediction: Washington Football Team 24-21 (59.4%)
Pick: Titans +6 (57.6%)
Total: Under 46.5
Houston at Pittsburgh
Prediction: Steelers 23-21 (55.8%)
Pick: Texans +3.5 (54.11%)
Total: Under 45
NCAA Top 25 – 10/13/2014
2014 NCAA Football Standings
Updated October 12, 2014
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NFL Picks – Week 6
Total (weeks 1-6) – SU: 62-28-1 ATS: 46-43-2 O/U: 51-39-1
Week 1 – SU: 9-7-0 ATS: 8-8-0 O/U: 13-3-0
Week 2 – SU: 10-6-0 ATS: 10-6-0 O/U: 10-6-0
Week 3 – SU: 12-4-0 ATS: 9-6-1 O/U: 8-8-0
Week 4 – SU: 7-6-0 ATS: 5-7-1 O/U: 5-8-0
Week 5 – SU: 14-2-0 ATS: 6-9-0 O/U: 9-6-0
Week 6 – SU: 11-3-1 ATS: 8-7-0 O/U: 6-9-1
Indianapolis at Houston
Prediction: Texans 24-21 (59.1%)
Pick: Texans +3 (67.2%)
Total: Under 46
Washington at Arizona
Prediction: Cardinals 22-21 (53.4%)
Pick: Washington Football Team +3.5 (56.5%)
Total: Under 45.5
Green Bay at Miami
Prediction: Packers 23-22 (54.1%)
Pick: Dolphins +3.5 (55.9%)
Total: Under 49.5
Chicago at Atlanta
Prediction: Falcons 25-24 (53.0%)
Pick: Bears +3 (55.5%)
Total: Under 54
New England at Buffalo
Prediction: Patriots 25-22 (58.9%)
Pick: Patriots -3 (50.4%)
Total: Over 45
Carolina at Cincinnati
Prediction: Bengals 23-20 (56.1%) (PUSH)
Pick: Panthers +7 (63.5%)
Total: Under 45
Pittsburgh at Cleveland
Prediction: Browns 22-21 (50.0%)
Pick: Steelers +2.5 (57.1%)
Total: Under 47
Detroit at Minnesota
Prediction: Lions 23-22 (52.7%)
Pick: Vikings +2 (53.0%)
Total: Over 44
Denver at NY Jets
Prediction: Broncos 24-21 (60.5%)
Pick: Jets +9 (64.7%)
Total: Under 48 (PUSH)
San Diego at Oakland
Prediction: Chargers 23-21 (55.4%)
Pick: Raiders +7.5 (65.6%)
Total: Over 43.5
Dallas at Seattle
Prediction: Seahawks 25-20 (65.5%)
Pick: Cowboys +8 (56.8%)
Total: Under 47.5
Baltimore at Tampa Bay
Prediction: Ravens 21-20 (51.7%)
Pick: Buccaneers +3.5 (58.2%)
Total: Under 43.5
Jacksonville at Tennessee
Prediction: Titans 24-17 (69.5%)
Pick: Titans -6 (58.2%)
Total: Under 44
NY Giants at Philadelphia
Prediction: Eagles 25-21 (59.9%)
Pick: Eagles -2.5 (52.89%)
Total: Under 50.5
San Francisco at St. Louis
Prediction: 49ers 23-19 (60.9%)
Pick: 49ers -3.5 (51.0%)
Total: Under 44
NCAA Football Rankings – 10/7/2014
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NFL Picks – Week 5
Total (weeks 1-4) – SU: 51-25-0 ATS: 38-36-2 O/U: 45-31-0
Week 1 – SU: 9-7-0 ATS: 8-8-0 O/U: 13-3-0
Week 2 – SU: 10-6-0 ATS: 10-6-0 O/U: 10-6-0
Week 3 – SU: 12-4-0 ATS: 9-6-1 O/U: 8-8-0
Week 4 – SU: 7-6-0 ATS: 5-7-1 O/U: 5-8-0
Week 5 – SU: 14-2-0 ATS: 6-9-0 O/U: 9-6-0
Minnesota at Green Bay
Prediction: Packers 26-20 (67.5%)
Pick: Vikings +9 (57.5%)
Total: Under 48
Chicago at Carolina
Prediction: Panthers 23-22 (54.9%)
Pick: Bears +2.5 (52.2%)
Total: Under 46
Houston at Dallas
Prediction: Cowboys 24-22 (55.0%)
Pick: Texans +6 (61.9%)
Total: Under 47
Arizona at Denver
Prediction: Broncos 26-20 (67.3%)
Pick: Cardinals +7.5 (53.5%)
Total: Under 49
Buffalo at Detroit
Prediction: Lions 24-20 (62.9%)
Pick: Bills +7 (56.7%)
Total: Under 44.5
Baltimore at Indianapolis
Prediction: Colts 23-22 (52.4%)
Pick: Ravens +3.5 (57.6%)
Total: Under 48
Pittsburgh at Jacksonville
Prediction: Steelers 24-19 (64.7%)
Pick: Jaguars +7 (54.9%)
Total: Under 46.5
Tampa Bay at New Orleans
Prediction: Saints 27-20 (68.5%)
Pick: Buccaneers +10 (59.2%)
Total: Under 48.5
Atlanta at NY Giants
Prediction: Giants 25-23 (54.7%)
Pick: Falcons +4 (56.6%)
Total: Under 50.5
St. Louis at Philadelphia
Prediction: Eagles 25-20 (64.0%)
Pick: Rams +7 (55.7%)
Total: Under 48
NY Jets at San Diego
Prediction: Chargers 23-19 (61.8%)
Pick: Jets +7 (57.9%)
Total: Under 44
Kansas City at San Francisco
Prediction: 49ers 24-17 (68.3%)
Pick: 49ers -6.5 (50.5%)
Total: Under 45
Cleveland at Tennessee
Prediction: Titans 23-21 (56.8%)
Pick: Browns +1.5 (52.5%)
Total: Under 44
Cincinnati at New England
Prediction: Patriots 26-22 (61.4%)
Pick: Patriots -2.5 (54.4%)
Total: Over 46
Seattle at Washington
Prediction: Seahawks 23-21 (57.7%)
Pick: Redskins +7.5 (76.7%)
Total: Under 46
My NCAA Top 25
2014 NCAA Football Standings
Updated September 29, 2014
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Language Log on “specificity” and “sensitivity”
I can finally say that I no longer need to look these two thins up. #progress #experience
Language Log on “specificity” and “sensitivity” as (poorly chosen words for) properties of medical tests. Mark Liberman asks: why not just call them true positive rate and true negative rate. With the classic “what’s the probability that you got the disease, given that you tested positive?” problem thrown in; you’ve seen this if you ever learned Bayes’ theorem.
NFL Picks – Week 4
Total (weeks 1-3) – SU: 39-22-0 ATS: 32-27-2 O/U: 36-25-0
Week 1 – SU: 10-6-0 ATS: 8-8-0 O/U: 13-3-0
Week 2 – SU: 10-6-0 ATS: 10-6-0 O/U: 10-6-0
Week 3 – SU: 12-4-0 ATS: 9-6-1 O/U: 8-8-0
Week 4 – SU: 7-6-0 ATS: 5-7-1 O/U: 5-8-0
NY Giants at Washington
Prediction: Washington Football Team 23-21 (55.4%)
Pick: Giants +3.5 (54.6%)
Total: Under 46.5
Carolina at Baltimore
Prediction: Ravens 23-20 (56.4%)
Pick: Panthers +3 (51.2%)
Total: Over 41
Green Bay at Chicago
Prediction: Bears 23-22 (52.9%)
Pick: Bears +1.5 (57.1%)
Total: Under 50.5
Buffalo at Houston
Prediction: Texans 24-19 (63.3%)
Pick: Texans -3 (55.0%)
Total: Over 41.5
Tennessee at Indianapolis
Prediction: Colts 24-21 (57.7%)
Pick: Titans +7.5 (63.4%)
Total: Under 46
Atlanta at Minnesota
Prediction: Falcons 23-22 (53.3%)
Pick: Vikings +3 (55.2%)
Total: Under 47
Detroit at NY Jets
Prediction: Lions 22-21 (52.5%)
Pick: Jets +2 (53.15%)
Total: Under 45
Miami at Oakland
Prediction: Dolphins 21-20 (52.6%)
Pick: Raiders +4 (58.8%)
Total: Over 40.5
Tampa Bay at Pittsburgh
Prediction: Steelers 23-18 (52.9%)
Pick: Buccaneers +7.5 (57.2%)
Total: Under 45.5
Jacksonville at San Diego
Prediction: Chargers 26-17 (73.8%)
Pick: Jaguars +13.5 (62.9%)
Total: Under 45
Philadelphia at San Francisco
Prediction: 49ers 25-20 (63.3%)
Pick: Eagles +5 (50.7%) PUSH
Total: Under 51
New Orleans at Dallas
Prediction: Saints 26-25 (51.5%)
Pick: Cowboys +3 (57.0%)
Total: Under 53.5
New England at Kansas City
Prediction: Patriots 25-21 (60.5%)
Pick: Patriots -3.5 (50.6%)
Total: Over 46
How the 538 model works
Here’s a explanation by Nate Silver of how his Senate prediction model works. 10,000 words, and denser than the typical FiveThirtyEight post, but it’s food for thought if you’ve been curious about what’s going on under the hood of FiveThirtyEight’s flagship product.
Make sure to click through to the footnotes – lots of links to subsidiary analyses from the past that explicate some of the interesting tidbits Silver and co. have built up over time.
Stats in the Wild 