Category Archives: Uncategorized

Baltimore vs Pittsburgh

Nov 19

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I’m in two different NFL pools, and the spreads lock at different times during the week.  Early in the week Baltimore was +3.5, and by the end of the week Pittsburgh was +3.5.  So, I have Baltimore +3.5 in one pool, and Pittsburgh +3.5 in the other.  Winning both would be nice, and looks very possible right now.

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NCAA Football Rankings – 11/18/2012

Nov 18

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  Teams records
1 OREGON 10-1
2 NOTRE DAME 10-0
3 ALABAMA 10-1
4 FLORIDA 10-1
5 KANSAS STATE 10-1
6 STANFORD 9-2
7 TEXAS A&M 9-2
8 LSU 9-2
9 OKLAHOMA 8-2
10 OREGON STATE 7-2
11 OHIO STATE 11-0
12 GEORGIA 10-1
13 SO CAROLINA 9-2
14 FLORIDA STATE 10-1
15 OKLAHOMA STATE 7-3
16 CLEMSON 10-1
17 TEXAS 8-2
18 NEBRASKA 9-2
19 UCLA 9-2
20 USC 7-4
21 ARIZONA 6-4
22 MICHIGAN 8-3
23 MISS STATE 8-3
24 WISCONSIN 7-4
25 WASHINGTON 7-4
26 UTAH STATE 9-2
27 TEXAS TECH 7-4
28 PENN STATE 7-4
29 NORTHWESTERN 8-3
30 RUTGERS 9-1
31 IOWA STATE 6-5
32 ARIZONA STATE 6-5
33 TCU 6-4
34 SAN JOSE ST 8-2
35 BAYLOR 5-5
36 FRESNO STATE 8-3
37 VANDERBILT 7-4
38 LOUISVILLE 9-1
39 NORTHERN ILL 10-1
40 BOISE STATE 9-2
41 MICHIGAN STATE 5-6
42 MISSOURI 5-6
43 LOUISIANA TECH 9-2
44 CINCINNATI 7-3
45 WEST VIRGINIA 5-5
46 MIAMI-FLORIDA 6-5
47 BYU 6-4
48 OLE MISS 5-6
49 ARKANSAS STATE 8-3
50 SYRACUSE 6-5
51 NORTH CAROLINA 7-4
52 SAN DIEGO ST 8-3
53 KENT STATE 10-1
54 GEORGIA TECH 6-5
55 UCF 8-3
56 BALL STATE 8-3
57 ARKANSAS 4-7
58 TULSA 9-2
59 TOLEDO 8-3
60 MIDDLE TENNESSEE 7-3
61 UTAH 4-6
62 TENNESSEE 4-7
63 CALIFORNIA 3-8
64 PITTSBURGH 4-6
65 ULM 7-4
66 VIRGINIA TECH 5-6
67 LOUISIANA 6-4
68 NAVY 6-4
69 DUKE 6-5
70 MINNESOTA 6-5
71 IOWA 4-7
72 NEVADA 7-4
73 WESTERN KY 6-5
74 PURDUE 5-6
75 INDIANA 4-7
76 AUBURN 3-8
77 NC STATE 6-5
78 BOWLING GREEN 7-4
79 OHIO U 8-3
80 KENTUCKY 2-9
81 WAKE FOREST 5-6
82 SO FLORIDA 3-7
83 TROY 5-6
84 MARYLAND 4-7
85 EAST CAROLINA 7-4
86 AIR FORCE 6-5
87 WYOMING 4-7
88 SMU 5-6
89 KANSAS 1-10
90 TEMPLE 4-6
91 CONNECTICUT 4-6
92 VIRGINIA 4-7
93 WASHINGTON ST 2-9
94 RICE 5-6
95 COLORADO 1-10
96 NORTH TEXAS 4-7
97 ILLINOIS 2-9
98 BOSTON COLLEGE 2-9
99 HOUSTON 4-7
100 COLORADO STATE 3-8
101 FLA ATLANTIC 3-8
102 FIU 3-8
103 MARSHALL 5-6
104 BUFFALO 4-7
105 CENTRAL MICH 5-6
106 TEXAS STATE 3-7
107 NEW MEXICO 4-8
108 WESTERN MICH 4-8
109 TX-SAN ANTONIO 7-4
110 UNLV 2-10
111 ARMY 2-8
112 MIAMI-OHIO 4-7
113 EASTERN MICH 2-9
114 MEMPHIS 3-8
115 TEXAS-EL PASO 3-8
116 SOUTH ALABAMA 2-9
117 TULANE 2-9
118 IDAHO 1-10
119 UAB 3-8
120 HAWAII 1-9
121 MASSACHUSETTS 1-10
122 AKRON 1-10
123 SOUTHERN MISS 0-11
124 NEW MEXICO ST 1-9

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AL MVP vs AL WAR leaders

Nov 16

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NFL Predictions – Week 11

Nov 15

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Overall Records for 2012

SU: 102-57-1 (63.75%)

ATS: 90-70 (56.25%) (ROI: 10.31%)

O/U: 84-71-2 (54.14%) (ROI: 6.02%)

Week 11 (12-2 SU, 11-3 ATS, 5-8-1 O/U)

Week 10 (6-7-1 SU, 7-7 ATS, 8-6 O/U)

Week 9 (11-3 SU, 6-8 ATS, 6-7-1 O/U)

Week 8 (10-4 SU, 9-5 ATS, 9-4 O/U)

Week 7 (10-3 SU, 6-7 ATS, 6-7 O/U)

Week 6 (6-8 SU, 7-7 ATS, 6-7 O/U)

Week 5 (10-4 SU, 7-7 ATS, 7-7 O/U)

Week 4 (10-5 SU, 10-5 ATS, 12-2 O/U)

Week 3 (5-11 SU, 9-7 ATS, 9-7 O/U)

Week 2 (11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS, 8-8 O/U)

Week 1 (11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS, 8-8 O/U)

Week 11

Thursday @8:20pm

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills

Prediction: Bills win 25-22

Pick: Bills -2.5

O/U: Over 45

Sunday @1pm

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions

Prediction: Packers win 31-26

Pick: Packers -3.5

O/U: Over 51.5

Cleveland Browns at Dallas Cowboys

Prediction: Cowboys win 22-18

Pick: Browns +7.5

O/U: Under 43.5

Arizona Cardinals at Atlanta Falcons

Prediction: Falcons win 28-19

Pick: Cardinals +10

O/U: Over 44.5

New York Jets at St. Louis Rams

Prediction: Jets win 22-21

Pick: Jets +3

O/U: Over 38.5

Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans

Prediction: Texans win 26-15

Pick: Jaguars +16

O/U: Over 41

Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins

Prediction: Eagles win 27-26

Pick:  Eagles +3.5

O/U: Over 43.5

Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs

Prediction: Bengals win 23-22

Pick: Chiefs +3

O/U: Over 43.5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers

Prediction: Buccaneers win 24-22

Pick: Buccaneers -1.5

O/U: Under 48 (PUSH)

Sunday @4:05pm

New Orleans Saints at Oakland Raiders

Prediction: Saints win 33-20

Pick: Saints -5

O/U: Under 54.5

Sunday @4:25pm

San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos

Prediction: Chargers win 28-27

Pick: Chargers +7.5

O/U: Over 48.5

Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots

Prediction: Patriots win 33-20

Pick: Patriots -9.5

O/U: Under 53.5

Sunday @8:20pm

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers

Prediction: Ravens win 25-22

Pick: Steelers +3.5

O/U: Over 40

Monday @8:30pm

Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers

Prediction: 49ers win 27-24

Pick: Bears+7

O/U: Over 37

Cheers.

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NFL Rankings – 11/15/2012

Nov 15

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StatsInTheWild NFL rankings as of November 15, 2012 at 12:34pm.  SOS=strength of schedule

Team Rank Change Record Projected Record ESPN TeamRankings.com SOS Points Diff
Houston 1 ↑1 8-1 13-3 1 1 12 +107
Chicago 2 ↓1 7-2 11-5 3 2 6 +109
Green Bay 3 ↑1 6-3 10-6 6 4 5 +52
New England 4 ↑2 6-3 11-5 8 5 14 +98
SF 5 – 6-2-1 11-4-1 4 8 7 +86
Atlanta 6 ↓3 8-1 13-3 2 7 29 +73
Denver 7 ↑1 6-3 11-5 7 3 27 +82
Seattle 8 ↑1 6-4 9-7 12 9 8 +37
Baltimore 9 ↑1 7-2 11-5 5 6 26 +58
Minnesota 10 ↑1 6-4 8-8 14 14 2 +17
NY Giants 11 ↓4 6-4 9-7 10 15 22 +51
Tampa Bay 12 ↑2 5-4 9-7 13 13 24 +51
Pittsburgh 13 ↑2 6-3 10-6 9 10 32 +30
Detroit 14 ↓2 4-5 7-9 17 18 1 -6
Indianapolis 15 ↑3 6-3 9-7 11 11 19 -15
Dallas 16 ↑4 4-5 8-8 15 16 17 -16
Arizona 17 ↓1 4-5 7-9 22 25 3 -29
St. Louis 18 ↓1 3-5-1 6-9-1 23 19 4 -49
New Orleans 19 ↑3 4-5 7-9 16 12 15 -7
Miami 20 ↓7 4-5 7-9 18 21 16 -13
San Diego 21 ↓2 4-5 7-9 20 27 30 +18
Cincinnati 22 ↑4 4-5 8-8 19 20 31 -11
NY Jets 23 ↓2 3-6 6-10 26 23 11 -53
Washington 24 – 3-6 6-10 21 26 21 -22
Tennessee 25 ↑4 4-6 7-9 25 17 10 -92
Carolina 26 ↓3 2-7 5-11 29 22 13 -53
Buffalo 27 ↓2 3-6 6-10 27 24 20 -74
Philadelphia 28 ↓1 3-6 6-10 24 30 18 -65
Cleveland 29 ↑1 2-7 5-11 30 28 25 -42
Oakland 30 ↓2 3-6 6-10 28 29 28 -93
Jacksonville 31 – 1-8 3-13 31 31 9 -119
Kansas City 32 – 1-8 3-13 32 32 23 -110

Playoff Predictions

AFC seeds(Projected Record)

  1. Houston (13-3)
  2. Baltimore (11-5)
  3. Denver (11-5)
  4. New England (11-5)
  5. Pittsburgh (10-6)
  6. Indianapolis (9-7)

NFC seeds (Projected Record)

  1. Atlanta (13-3)
  2. Chicago (11-5)
  3. San Francisco (11-4-1)
  4. NY Giants (9-7)
  5. Green Bay (10-6)
  6. Seattle (9-7)

Playoff Games

Wild-Card Round

AFC: Denver beat Indianapolis; New England beats Pittsburgh

NFC: San Francisco beats Seattle; Green Bay beats the NY Giants

Divisional Round

AFC: Houston beats New England; Denver beats Baltimore

NFC: Chicago beats San Francisco; Green Bay beats Atlanta

Conference Championship

AFC: Houston beats Denver

NFC: Chicago beats Green Bay

Super Bowl

Houston beats Chicago

Best

Best team in the league: Houston

Best 8 win team: Houston

Best 7 win team: Chicago

Best 6 win team: Green Bay

Best 5 win team: Tampa Bay

Best 4 win team: Detroit

Best 3 win team: St. Louis

Best 2 win team: Carolina

Best 1 win team: Jacksonville

Worst

Worst 8 win team: Atlanta

Worst 7 win team: Baltimore

Worst 6 win team: Indianapolis

Worst 5 win team: Tampa Bay

Worst 4 win team: Tennessee

Worst 3 win team: Oakland

Worst 2 win team: Cleveland

Worst 1 win team: Kansas City

Worst team in the league: Kansas City

Most

Most under-rated teams: St. Louis and Arizona

Most over-rated teams: Atlanta, Baltimore, Indianapolis, and Pittsburgh

Cheers.

 

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RIPPEN – After week 10

Nov 14

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Week 10 performances:

 
Rank Player Team RIPPEN QB_Rating
1 Alex Smith SF 55.57 143.8
2 Russell Wilson SEA 39.41 131.0
3 Josh Freeman TB 37.97 137.5
4 Drew Brees NO 31.04 113.8
5 Sam Bradford STL 30.07 104.1
6 Peyton Manning DEN 29.20 103.1
7 Joe Flacco BAL 27.49 115.8
8 Christian Ponder MIN 23.91 114.2
9 Andrew Luck IND 23.67 80.1
10 Ryan Fitzpatrick BUF 23.05 99.7
11 Michael Vick PHI 22.67 127.1
12 Philip Rivers SD 22.50 109.1
13 Matt Ryan ATL 21.47 100.7
14 Matthew Stafford DET 19.41 104.2
15 Andy Dalton CIN 16.21 127.6
16 Tom Brady NE 15.30 96.1
17 Carson Palmer OAK 13.58 95.4
18 Jake Locker TEN 13.56 93.8
19 Blaine Gabbert JAX 12.92 65.1
20 Cam Newton CAR 12.37 74.0
21 Tony Romo DAL 11.17 122.1
22 Matt Cassel KC 10.47 46.0
23 Ryan Tannehill MIA 7.71 42.4
24 Mark Sanchez NYJ 7.46 40.7
25 Ben Roethlisberger PIT 6.23 81.7
26 Eli Manning NYG 5.85 56.0
27 Matt Schaub HOU 1.52 42.9
28 Jay Cutler CHI 0.23 16.7

Season RIPPEN through week 10.

Rank Player Team RIPPEN QB_Rating
1 Peyton Manning DEN 25.4 108.0
2 Matt Ryan ATL 24.2 102.6
3 Tom Brady NE 23.0 100.1
4 Alex Smith SF 22.3 104.1
5 Robert Griffin III WAS 21.7 93.9
6 Drew Brees NO 20.7 97.3
7 Aaron Rodgers GB 20.7 107.4
8 Tony Romo DAL 20.5 85.2
9 Matt Schaub HOU 20.4 91.7
10 Josh Freeman TB 20.0 98.2
11 Joe Flacco BAL 19.8 88.3
12 Cam Newton CAR 19.7 77.2
13 Ben Roethlisberger PIT 19.6 100.0
14 Andrew Luck IND 18.3 79.1
15 Matthew Stafford DET 18.1 85.4
16 Sam Bradford STL 17.4 85.3
17 Russell Wilson SEA 16.4 90.5
18 Ryan Tannehill MIA 16.4 73.2
19 Jake Locker TEN 16.2 90.8
20 Philip Rivers SD 15.5 89.3
21 Christian Ponder MIN 15.2 85.2
22 Eli Manning NYG 14.8 81.8
23 Andy Dalton CIN 14.6 91.1
24 Michael Vick PHI 14.3 79.2
25 Ryan Fitzpatrick BUF 13.8 87.5
26 Jay Cutler CHI 13.2 80.4
27 Carson Palmer OAK 12.6 86.8
28 Mark Sanchez NYJ 11.4 70.4
29 Matt Cassel KC 10.2 66.6
30 Brandon Weeden CLE 10.1 67.9
31 Blaine Gabbert JAX 9.7 76.9
32 John Skelton ARI 9.6 65.8
33 Kevin Kolb ARI 9.1 86.1
34 Matt Hasselbeck TEN 7.9 81.0

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Nov 13

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I suppose this counts as a visual display of information, right?

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NCAA Football Rankings – 11/11/2012

Nov 11

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Rank Teams records
1 OREGON 10-0
2 KANSAS STATE 10-0
3 ALABAMA 9-1
4 NOTRE DAME 10-0
5 FLORIDA 9-1
6 TEXAS A&M 8-2
7 OKLAHOMA 7-2
8 LSU 8-2
9 STANFORD 8-2
10 GEORGIA 9-1
11 SO CAROLINA 8-2
12 OREGON STATE 7-2
13 OHIO STATE 10-0
14 FLORIDA STATE 9-1
15 USC 7-3
16 TEXAS 8-2
17 CLEMSON 9-1
18 OKLAHOMA STATE 6-3
19 UCLA 8-2
20 NEBRASKA 8-2
21 ARIZONA 6-4
22 TEXAS TECH 7-3
23 WISCONSIN 7-3
24 MICHIGAN 7-3
25 MISS STATE 7-3

Full Rankings

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RIPPEN through week 9

Nov 8

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Something I just noticed is that the team with the higher rated quarterback based on RIPPEN won every single game in week 9.  QB rating does a great job too, but it missed one game last week.  Ryan was 102.8 and Romo was 109.3, but Ryan’s Falcons won the game.  This is due entirely to the fact the Romo threw for a touchdown.  Other than that their numbers are nearly identical.  If you take that one touchdown away from Romo, his QB rating would have ben 99.8 with the exact same stats compared to Ryan’s 102.8. Passing touchdowns are so much more about luck and what plays the offensive coordinator is calling.  When evaluating a quarterback, they should probably be largely ignored as is done in RIPPEN.

A full explanation of RIPPEN

Week 9 performances:

 
Rank Player Team RIPPEN QB_Rating
1 Philip Rivers SD 40.5 125.0
2 Matt Ryan ATL 38.9 102.8
3 Tony Romo DAL 38.6 109.3
4 Matt Schaub HOU 38.2 126.8
5 Matthew Stafford DET 34.8 93.6
6 Andrew Luck IND 33.6 105.6
7 Jay Cutler CHI 32.3 138.1
8 Ryan Tannehill MIA 30.0 90.9
9 Russell Wilson SEA 29.9 127.3
10 Cam Newton CAR 27.2 100.1
11 Drew Brees NO 27.1 128.2
12 Josh Freeman TB 25.9 108.6
13 Peyton Manning DEN 21.4 105.8
14 Ryan Fitzpatrick BUF 18.5 83.1
15 Ben Roethlisberger PIT 17.9 98.8
16 Andy Dalton CIN 17.5 81.3
17 Robert Griffin III WAS 14.1 74.2
18 Aaron Rodgers GB 13.0 96.9
19 John Skelton ARI 12.0 69.7
20 Matt Cassel KC 11.7 68.3
21 Blaine Gabbert JAX 9.2 81.0
22 Joe Flacco BAL 8.6 94.6
23 Michael Vick PHI 8.4 72.4
24 Carson Palmer OAK 7.8 85.0
25 Eli Manning NYG 6.9 41.1
26 Brandon Weeden CLE 4.6 44.4
27 Christian Ponder MIN 0.7 37.3

RIPPEN through week 9 for the year:

 
Rank Player Team RIPPEN QB_Rating
1 Peyton Manning DEN 28.2 108.6
2 Matt Ryan ATL 24.4 103.0
3 Tom Brady NE 24.1 100.6
4 Matt Schaub HOU 23.3 96.8
5 Aaron Rodgers GB 22.6 107.4
6 Cam Newton CAR 22.6 77.7
7 Robert Griffin III WAS 22.5 93.9
8 Alex Smith SF 21.8 102.1
9 Ben Roethlisberger PIT 20.4 101.1
10 Drew Brees NO 19.3 95.8
11 Josh Freeman TB 19.0 95.1
12 Jay Cutler CHI 19.0 85.3
13 Tony Romo DAL 18.6 82.2
14 Andrew Luck IND 18.4 79.0
15 Ryan Tannehill MIA 18.3 78.2
16 Matthew Stafford DET 17.6 83.2
17 Sam Bradford STL 17.1 82.4
18 Jake Locker TEN 17.0 68.5
19 Eli Manning NYG 16.5 85.5
20 Andy Dalton CIN 16.0 86.7
21 Russell Wilson SEA 15.8 87.2
22 Philip Rivers SD 15.3 86.5
23 Christian Ponder MIN 14.5 82.0
24 Michael Vick PHI 13.7 77.7
25 Joe Flacco BAL 13.0 85.0
26 Ryan Fitzpatrick BUF 12.9 85.6
27 Carson Palmer OAK 12.6 85.6
28 Mark Sanchez NYJ 11.5 72.8
29 Matt Cassel KC 10.7 68.9
30 Brandon Weeden CLE 10.2 67.9
31 Kevin Kolb ARI 9.8 86.1
32 John Skelton ARI 9.5 65.8
33 Blaine Gabbert JAX 8.8 78.4
34 Matt Hasselbeck TEN 7.7 81.4

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NFL Predictions – Week 10

Nov 8

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Week 9 was my worst week of the year against the spread and my best week of the year picking winners straight-up.

Overall Records for 2012

SU: 90-55-1 (61.99%)

ATS: 79-67 (54.11%) (ROI: 5.92%)

O/U: 79-63-1 (55.59%) (ROI: 8.99%)

Week 10 (6-7-1 SU, 7-7 ATS, 8-6 O/U)

Week 9 (11-3 SU, 6-8 ATS, 6-7-1 O/U)

Week 8 (10-4 SU, 9-5 ATS, 9-4 O/U)

Week 7 (10-3 SU, 6-7 ATS, 6-7 O/U)

Week 6 (6-8 SU, 7-7 ATS, 6-7 O/U)

Week 5 (10-4 SU, 7-7 ATS, 7-7 O/U)

Week 4 (10-5 SU, 10-5 ATS, 12-2 O/U)

Week 3 (5-11 SU, 9-7 ATS, 9-7 O/U)

Week 2 (11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS, 8-8 O/U)

Week 1 (11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS, 8-8 O/U)

Week 10

Thursday @8:20pm

Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars

Prediction: Colts win 23-14

Pick: Colts +3

O/U: Under 42.5

Sunday @1pm

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots

Prediction: Patriots win 35-21

Pick: Patriots -11

O/U: Over 51

New York Giants at Cincinnati Bengals

Prediction: Giants win 27-24

Pick: Bengals +4

O/U: Over 48.5

San Diego Chargers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Prediction: Chargers win 27-26

Pick: Chargers +3

O/U: Over 48

Denver Broncos at Carolina Panthers

Prediction: Broncos win 24-23

Pick: Panthers +4.5

O/U: Under 48

Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins

Prediction: Dolphins win 22-21

Pick: Titans +6

O/U: Under 44.5

Oakland Raiders at Baltimore Ravens

Prediction: Ravens win 27-23

Pick:  Raiders +7.5

O/U: Over 46

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints

Prediction: Falcons win 26-25

Pick: Saints +2.5

O/U: Under 53.5

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings

Prediction: Lions win 28-25

Pick: Lions -2

O/U: Over 47

Sunday @4:05pm

New York Jets at Seattle Seahawks

Prediction: Seahawks win 23-22

Pick: Jets +6.5

O/U: Over 38.5

Sunday @4:25pm

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles

Prediction: Eagles win 26-24

Pick: Eagles -1.5

O/U: Over 45

St. Louis Rams at San Francisco 49ers

Prediction: 49ers win 28-16 (TIE?)

Pick: Rams +11.5

O/U: Over 38.5

Sunday @8:20pm

Houston Texans at Chicago Bears

Prediction: Bears win 26-25

Pick: Texans +1

O/U: Over 42

Monday @8:30pm

Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers

Prediction: Steelers win 25-18

Pick: Chiefs +12.5

O/U: Over 43

Cheers.

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