Category Archives: Uncategorized

Deadspin: The problem with Bill Simmons

I liked this quote from the Deadspin article “The Bill Simmons Problem, In Two Paragraphs“:

This is the problem of Bill Simmons: He’s too smart to be as dumb as he used to be. —Tom Scocca

Cheers.

 

Simply Statistics: On weather forecasts, Nate Silver, and the politicization of statistical illiteracy

Simply Statistics: On weather forecasts, Nate Silver, and the politicization of statistical illiteracy.

The United States Congress: Partisan and Ideological Make-up

 

xkcd has created a great visualization of the United States Congress across. I especially like how you can follow presidents through their time in the House or Senate.  

NFL Rankings – 10/31/2012

StatsInTheWild NFL rankings as of October 31, 2012 at 12:34pm.  SOS=strength of schedule

Team Rank Change Record ESPN TeamRankings.com SOS Points Diff
Houston 1 ↑1 6-1 1 2 17 +88
Chicago 2 ↓1 6-1 5 3 9 +85
San Francisco 3 6-2 4 5 6 +86
New England 4 ↑4 5-3 8 8 12 +92
Atlanta 5 ↑1 7-0 1 1 29 +71
Green Bay 6 ↓2 5-3 6 6 7 +38
NY Giants 7 6-2 2 4 22 +73
Minnesota 8 ↓3 5-3 11 16 5 +17
Denver 9 ↑6 4-3 9 7 28 +52
Miami 10 ↑4 4-3 12 9 15 +24
Baltimore 11 ↑1 5-2 7 10 24 +13
Seattle 12 ↓3 4-4 13 12 4 +6
Arizona 13 ↓3 4-4 16 22 1 -15
Detroit 14 ↓1 3-4 17 13 2 -13
Pittsburgh 15 ↑4 4-3 10 11 31 +23
Tampa Bay 16 ↑5 3-4 21 23 23 +31
St. Louis 17 ↓6 3-5 23 20 3 -49
Dallas 18 ↓1 3-4 14 15 16 -25
NY Jets 19 ↓1 3-5 25 17 11 -32
Indianapolis 20 ↑2 4-3 15 14 19 -35
Washington 21 ↓5 3-5 19 19 21 -14
San Diego 22 ↑1 3-4 20 28 32 +10
Buffalo 23 ↑2 3-4 28 25 13 -56
Philadelphia 24 ↓4 3-4 18 18 20 -35
Cincinnati 25 ↑1 3-4 22 26 27 -21
New Orleans 26 ↓2 2-5 26 27 14 -26
Carolina 27 ↑1 1-6 30 30 18 -39
Oakland 28 ↑3 3-4 24 21 30 -48
Tennessee 29 ↓2 3-5 27 24 8 -95
Cleveland 30 2-6 29 29 25 -32
Jacksonville 31 ↓2 1-6 31 31 10 -85
Kansas City 32 1-6 32 32 26 -89

Best

Best team in the league: Houston

Best undefeated team: Atlanta

Best 6 win team: Houston

Best 5 win team: New England

Best 4 win team: Denver

Best 3 win team: Detroit

Best 2 win team: New Orleans

Best 1 win team: Carolina

Worst

Worst 6 win team: NY Giants

Worst 5 win team: Baltimore

Worst 4 win team: Indianapolis

Worst 3 win team: Tennessee

Worst 2 win team: Cleveland

Worst 1 win team: Kansas City

Worst team in the league: Kansas City

Most

Most under-rated team: (#17) St. Louis (ESPN has them 23) and (#19) NY Jets (ESPN has them at 25)

Most over-rated team: (#24) Philadelphia (ESPN has them 18)

Cheers.

 

Sandy Power Outage Map

Presidential Candidates, Search Engine Auto-Complete, and Word Clouds: Frankenstorm Edition

Below are updated word clouds for presidential candidates based on search engine auto-complete.  Here are the word clouds from August 30 and here is the description of what I am doing and the word clouds from August 17.

 

 

Cheers.

BCS: Why bother with the computers?

The BCS is either unbelievably brilliant or completely idiotic.  They use computer rankings to legitimize themselves, while at the same time, completely ignoring the computer rankings.

Louisiana Tech is a perfect example of this.  Currently, Louisiana Tech is 25th in the BCS standings in spite of the fact that exactly ZERO computer polls have them in the top 25.  They crack the BCS standings by coming in at 23 and 24 in the USA Today and Harris polls, respectively.  The polls outweigh the computers in such a way that they practically don’t matter.

Another good example of this is Florida State who currently sits at 9 in the BCS rankings.  Five of the six rankings have the Seminoles in the top 25 with ranks of 12, 18, 21, 22, and 25, while Sagarin leaves them out entirely.  Their average computer rank is 21.  In both polls, however, they are currently ranked 7th.  And thanks to the way the BCS performs the weighting the average of 7, 7, and 21 is 9. That’s BCS math for you.

The weighting for the BCS is one-third each for the two polls and one-third for the computer rankings.  However, if you look at the top 13 in both BCS polls, they are exactly the same.  This has the effect of essentially using only one poll but giving it two-thirds weight and giving the computers only one-third.  Voters can simply get together and vote in such a way that renders the computers meaningless.  Only one of the six computer rankings, Richard Billingsley, has Alabama ranked number 1, and yet they are nearly a unanimous number one in the voting.  Some more solid BCS math for you.

Whoever set up the BCS either had no idea what they were doing, tried to set-up a fair, rational system of ranking incorporating human voters and computers, and failed spectacularly, or knew exactly what they were doing, incorporated computers to make themselves look legitimate, and was wildly successful in maintaining the status quo.  Sometimes it’s hard to tell the difference between genius and insanity.

Cheers.

RIPPEN after week 8

An explanation of RIPPEN

Alex Smith’s performance on Monday night was the best performance by a quarterback in any game this season with a RIPPEN of 57.977. The next closest performance was Aaron Rodgers in week 7 with a RIPPEN of 43.235.

Smith’s incredible performance on Monday night wasn’t perfect though according to passer rating.  He only charted a 157.1, which is, of course, absolutely ridiculous.  Take a look at the list of games where the QB has ended with a perfect rating and try to tell me with a straight face that Alex Smith’s Monday night performance was worse than all of these.  For instance, in 2005 Roethlisberger finished a game 9 for 11 with 232 passing yards and 2 TD and a perfect passer rating.  How in the world can that be better than Alex Smith’s 18 for 19 performance for 232 yards and three touchdowns?  It’s because passer rating is terrible.

RIPPEN rankings for week 8 performances:

Player Team RIPPEN QB rating
Smith, A.  SF 57.977 157.1
Manning, P. DEN 32.232 138.9
Ryan, M. ATL 30.023 137.4
Brady, T. NE 26.385 131.1
Roethlisberger, B. PIT 24.045 121.0
Stafford, M. DET 23.692 101.7
Luck, A. IND 21.747 89.5
Wilson, R. SEA 19.716 96.8
Cutler, J. CHI 18.324 83.3
Freeman, J. TB 17.853 104.2
Newton, C. CAR 17.054 57.0
Ponder, C. MIN 16.026 74.8
Bradford, S. STL 16.004 88.9
Cassel, M. KC 14.130 85.1
Gabbert, B. JAX 13.057 80.6
Manning, E. NYG 12.378 58.4
Rodgers, A. GB 12.331 95.7
Romo, T. DAL 12.222 58.3
Palmer, C. OAK 10.750 83.8
Vick, M. PHI 10.046 84.3
Griffin, III, R. WAS 9.623 72.8
Sanchez, M NYJ 8.801 65.6
Skelton, J. ARI 8.159 68.6
Brees, D. NO 8.158 72.8
Weeden, B. CLE 7.906 55.9
Tannehill, R. MIA 3.299 50.4
Rivers, P. SD 2.015 65.1

Season RIPPEN rankings through 8 weeks of games:

Player Team RIPPEN QB rating
Manning, P. DEN 30.093 109.0
Rodgers, A. GB 24.579 107.9
Brady, T. NE 23.768 100.6
Griffin, III, R. WAS 23.374 97.3
Smith, A. SF 22.617 102.1
Ryan, M. ATL 22.566 103.0
Schaub, M. HOU 22.415 93.1
Newton, C. CAR 21.982 75.2
Roethlisberger, B. PIT 20.834 101.4
Brees, D. NO 18.954 93.0
Freeman, J. TB 18.242 93.3
Manning, E. NYG 17.580 89.1
Bradford, S. STL 17.485 82.4
Locker, J. TEN 17.147 90.2
Romo, T. DAL 16.548 78.8
Stafford, M. DET 16.317 82.1
Tannehill, R. MIA 16.205 75.8
Ponder, C. MIN 16.113 85.8
Cutler, J. DEN 15.904 78.9
Dalton, A. CIN 15.372 87.7
Luck, A. IND 14.992 74.6
Vick, M. PHI 14.703 78.6
Wilson, R. SEA 14.229 82.4
Palmer, C. OAK 14.062 85.7
Flacco, J. BAL 13.770 84.0
Rivers, P. SD 13.328 82.4
Fitzpatrick, R. BUF 12.039 86.1
Weeden, B. CLE 11.485 70.8
Sanchez, M. NYJ 11.484 72.8
Cassel, M. KC 10.430 69.0
Kolb, K. ARI 9.662 86.1
Gabbert, B. JAX 8.943 77.9
Skelton, J. ARI 8.363 64.5
Hasselbeck, M. TEN 8.039 83.3

 

Cheers.

Historical Tropical Storm Tracks

Google’s Viz of Hurricane Sandy

 

 

 

Google has a great visualization of Hurricane Sandy

Cheers.