NFL Picks – Week 12
Total (weeks 1-12) – SU: 109-67 ATS: 89-82-5 O/U: 98-74-3
Week 1 – SU: 10-6 ATS: 10-6 O/U: 11-5
Week 2 – SU: 8-8 ATS: 9-7 O/U: 9-7
Week 3 – SU: 10-6 ATS: 2-14 O/U: 7-8-1
Week 4 – SU: 10-5 ATS: 9-6 O/U: 9-6
Week 5 – SU: 7-7 ATS: 9-4-1 O/U: 6-8
Week 6 – SU: 12-2 ATS: 9-4-1 O/U: 8-6
Week 7 – SU: 10-4 ATS: 6-8 O/U: 10-4
Week 8 – SU: 9-5 ATS: 7-5-2 O/U: 7-7
Week 9 – SU: 8-5 ATS: 5-8 O/U: 8-5
Week 10 – SU: 5-9 ATS: 8-6 O/U: 9-3-2
Week 11 – SU: 10-4 ATS: 6-7-1 O/U: 7-7
Week 12 – SU: 10-6 ATS: 9-7 O/U: 8-8
Philadelphia at Detroit
Prediction: Lions 25-24
Pick: Lions +1.5
Total: Over 45.5
Carolina at Dallas
Prediction: Cowboys 22-21
Pick: Cowboys -1
Total: Under 45.5
Chicago at Green Bay
Prediction: Packers 27-20
Pick: Bears +8.5
Total: Over 45
New Orleans at Houston
Prediction: Texans 26-25
Pick: Saints +3
Total: Over 47.5
Minnesota at Atlanta
Prediction: Falcons 24-21
Pick: Falcons -1
Total: Under 45.5
St. Louis at Cincinnati
Prediction: Bengals 22-18
Pick: Rams +9
Total: Under 42
Tampa Bay at Indianapolis
Prediction: Colts 25-20
Pick: Colts -3
Total: Under 46.5
NY Giants at Washington
Prediction: Giants 23-22
Pick: Washington Football Team +2.5
Total: Under 47
Oakland at Tennessee
Prediction: Titans 22-20
Pick: Titans +2
Total: Under 44
Buffalo at Kansas City
Prediction: Chiefs 22-19
Pick: Bills +6.5
Total: Under 42.5
Miami at NY Jets
Prediction: Jets 21-20
Pick: Dolphins +3.5
Total: Under 42.5
San Diego at Jacksonville
Prediction: Chargers 24-21
Pick: Chargers +4
Total: Under 46.5
Arizona at San Francisco
Prediction: 49ers 21-20
Pick: 49ers +10.5
Total: Under 44.5
Pittsburgh at Seattle
Prediction: Seahawks 25-19
Pick: Seahawks -4
Total: Under 45.5
New England at Denver
Prediction: Broncos 26-25
Pick: Broncos +3
Total: Over 43.5
Baltimore at Cleveland
Prediction: Ravens 23-21
Pick: Ravens +2.5
Total: Over 41
NFL 2015: Just slightly below average or the year of the right skew
My friend sent me an email today commenting that there were a lot of mediocre NFL teams this year, and I think I read something somewhere that said there are more teams at or below .500 at this point in the season than in any year since 1990. So this got me thinking about some posts that I had written in like 2009 about entropy in the NFL (here and here).
I don’t really like the way I did them back then, so I did them differently today. What I did today was take the counts of wins for each team and did a goodness of fit test or a contingency table with probability 1/# of NFL teams for each cell. This is assuming that the the counts of the wins for NFL teams are randomly distributed across teams across the league. Below is a Manhattan style plot (like those used in GWAS) displaying the -log(p-value) for the league for each year from 2000 through 2015. Since, we are currently in the middle of 2015, I extrapolated win totals based on current win percentages (I don’t think this is great, but I’ll update it at the end of the season with the full results). What you can see is that 2015 is the only year with a p-value below the magical 0.05 level. (Of course, correcting for multiple tests with Bonferroni renders all of these tests insignificant).
The next closest year was 2005, which was a very strange year. Only one team finished 8-8 (3.8 teams on average) and the distribution of wins for teams was essentially bimodal. You were either a pretty good team or a pretty bad team, but mediocrity was hard to come by in 2005. What’s so different about 2015 is that the rejection of the null hypothesis this year seems to be being driven by the large number of slightly below average teams (Dolphins, Colts, Texans, Chiefs, Raiders, Giants, Washington Football Team, Eagles, Bears, Buccaneers, Saints, Seahawks, and Rams) and a few teams that are very, very good (Bengals, Patriots and of course the 9-1 Panthers.) On the other end of spectrum was 2002 when it seemed like every team in the league was 9-7, no team won 13 or more games (only other time that has happened since 2000 was last year in 2014), and every team won at least 2 games.
The plot below shows histograms for the distribution of win totals. Orange boxes indicate a higher count in that bin and blue indicates a lower count. (Note: 2015 win totals are extrapolated). Just take a look at the distribution of 2015! So many teams are just slightly below .500, which is distinctly different from any other year since 2000. I suspect that as the season finished, this shape we are seeing will diminish somewhat, but I think the general trend is interesting (I mean we are in week 11 right now).
Finally, I made some side by side boxplots (because I love them) to look at the distribution of team wins across season. Orange boxes are related to small p-values (i.e. significantly different than the null hypothesis) and blue boxes correspond to large p-values. Here the win totals for 2015 are not extrapolated and……
I re-created the boxplots with 2015 win totals extrapolated.
In conclusion, 2015 is a weird year in the NFL.
Cheers.
NFL Picks – Week 11
Total (weeks 1-11) – SU: 99-61 ATS: 80-75-5 O/U: 91-66-3
Week 1 – SU: 10-6 ATS: 10-6 O/U: 11-5
Week 2 – SU: 8-8 ATS: 9-7 O/U: 9-7
Week 3 – SU: 10-6 ATS: 2-14 O/U: 7-8-1
Week 4 – SU: 10-5 ATS: 9-6 O/U: 9-6
Week 5 – SU: 7-7 ATS: 9-4-1 O/U: 6-8
Week 6 – SU: 12-2 ATS: 9-4-1 O/U: 8-6
Week 7 – SU: 10-4 ATS: 6-8 O/U: 10-4
Week 8 – SU: 9-5 ATS: 7-5-2 O/U: 7-7
Week 9 – SU: 8-5 ATS: 5-8 O/U: 8-5
Week 10 – SU: 5-9 ATS: 8-6 O/U: 9-3-2
Week 11 – SU: 10-4 ATS: 6-7-1 O/U: 7-7
Tennessee at Jacksonville
Prediction: Jaguars 21-20
Pick: Titans +3.5
Total: Under 42.5
Washington at Carolina
Prediction: Panthers 24-19
Pick: Washington Football Team +7
Total: Under 45
Oakland at Detroit
Prediction: Lions 25-20
Pick: Lions +1
Total: Under 49.5
Dallas at Miami
Prediction: Dolphins 23-22
Pick: Dolphins +1
Total: Under 47
Indianapolis at Atlanta
Prediction: Falcons 26-24
Pick: Colts +5.5
Total: Over 47.5
St. Louis at Baltimore
Prediction: Ravens 22-19
Pick: Ravens -2.5
Total: Under 41.5
NY Jets at Houston
Prediction: Texans 22-19
Pick: Texans +2.5
Total: Under 41.5
Green Bay at Minnesota
Prediction: Packers 24-21
Pick: Packers +1
Total: Over 44.5
Tampa Bay at Philadelphia
Prediction: Eagles 26-20
Pick: Eagles -5.5
Total: Over 45
Denver at Chicago
Prediction: Broncos 24-21
Pick: Broncos +1
Total: Over 41
Cincinnati at Arizona
Prediction: Cardinals 22-21
Pick: Bengals +5
Total: Under 48.5
San Francisco at Seattle
Prediction: Seahawks 23-16
Pick: 49ers +12.5
Total: Under 40
Kansas City at San Diego
Prediction: Chargers 23-22
Pick: Chargers +3
Total: Over 45
Buffalo at New England
Prediction: Patriots 27-21
Pick: Bills +7 PUSH
Total: Under 48.5
NFL Picks – Week 10
Total (weeks 1-9) – SU: 87-56 ATS: 74-68-4 O/U: 94-59-2
Week 1 – SU: 10-6 ATS: 10-6 O/U: 11-5
Week 2 – SU: 8-8 ATS: 9-7 O/U: 9-7
Week 3 – SU: 10-6 ATS: 2-14 O/U: 7-8-1
Week 4 – SU: 10-5 ATS: 9-6 O/U: 9-6
Week 5 – SU: 7-7 ATS: 9-4-1 O/U: 6-8
Week 6 – SU: 12-2 ATS: 9-4-1 O/U: 8-6
Week 7 – SU: 10-4 ATS: 6-8 O/U: 10-4
Week 8 – SU: 9-5 ATS: 7-5-2 O/U: 7-7
Week 9 – SU: 8-5 ATS: 5-8 O/U: 8-5
Week 10 – SU: 5-9 ATS: 8-6 O/U: 9-3-2
Buffalo at NY Jets
Prediction: Jets 21-19
Pick: Jets -1.5
Total: Under 41.5
Detroit at Green Bay
Prediction: Packers 27-21
Pick: Lions +11
Total: Under 49
Dallas at Tampa Bay
Prediction: Cowboys 23-20
Pick: Cowboys +1.5
Total: Under 43.5
Carolina at Tennessee
Prediction: Panthers 22-20
Pick: Titans +5.5
Total: Under 44
Chicago at St. Louis
Prediction: Rams 21-19
Pick: Bears +7
Total: Under 42.5
New Orleans at Washington
Prediction: Saints 27-25
Pick: Saints -1
Total: Over 50
Miami at Philadelphia
Prediction: Eagles 26-22
Pick: Dolphins +6
Total: Under 49
Cleveland at Pittsburgh
Prediction: Steelers 25-20
Pick: Steelers -5
Total: Over 41.5
Jacksonville at Baltimore
Prediction: Ravens 25-17
Pick: Ravens -5.5
Total: Under 47.5
Minnesota at Oakland
Prediction: Vikings 22-21
Pick: Vikings +3
Total: Under 44 PUSH
Kansas City at Denver
Prediction: Broncos 25-20
Pick: Chiefs +6
Total: Over 42 PUSH
New England at NY Giants
Prediction: Patriots 27-24
Pick: Giants +7
Total: Under 54.5
Arizona at Seattle
Prediction: Seahawks 24-17
Pick: Seahawks -3
Total: Under 45
Houston at Cincinnati
Prediction: Bengals 24-20
Pick: Texans +10.5
Total: Under 47.5
Which sport?
I went the the Cubs game today against the Dodgers. I got to see Clayton Kershaw pitch (Awesome) and watch the Cubs get destroyed (Expected). It was 14-3 going into the 9th inning and some people were joking that a touchdown would get the Cubs right back in the game. (The Cubs “rallied” for two in the 9th to ultimately lose 14-5.)
But, this got me thinking. 14-3 does look like a football score, but 14-5 is clearly not. On the train back to school, I came up with this question: If all you knew about a game was the score, which sport would you guess generated that score?
To answer this question, I scraped the scores of (almost) all of the baseball and hockey games from 2000-2014, and I found a table of all NFL scores all-time. (I haven’t exhaustively scraped every single NHL and MLB game ever because…
View original post 247 more words
Visualizing the top 10 hitters of all time
I recently submitted by entry to this Major League baseball data visualization contest. My entry is below (click on it and zoom in and out to see each graph):
Each graph displays games played, home runs, stolen bases, hits, and on base percentage per season for each player as well as their career on base percentage. Hits are represented by the color of the bars (darker equals more hits), the width on the bottom of the bar is game played and the width of the top of the bar is home runs. The dashed line is career on base percentage and the dot represented the on base percentage in a given season. The diameter of the dot displays the number of stolen bases for a given season.
I don’t think I have a chance to win because apparently you were supposed to visualize the top 10 hitter AND (not OR) the top ten pitchers. Oh well. I think my plots are still pretty cool.
Cheers.
AUC poem
It may tell us if what we predict is right.
Like where Anton may spend the night.
This is what Randy needs to know.
So the area-under-the-curve (AUC) can’t be too low.
Can you just handle all the suspense?
And will you then give my trilogy a chance?
If so, I do hope you give it more than 50 percent.
If I do say so myself, it would be money well spent.
My Amazing Grandmother
My grandmother passed away Wednesday night. She was 93 years old. She had 9 children, 14 grandchildren, and 10 great-grandchildren.
Amazing.
Here is an excerpt from her obituary:
Pauline would eventually meet her future husband, Lieutenant Michael Toms, on a ship heading for Pearl Harbor, Hawaii, where they would both survive the infamous attack on December 7, 1941.
Amazing.
Also, here is a joke that she told at Thanksgiving or Christmas a few years ago:
Two guys were sitting in a room in their nursing home with the door open. Some women in the nursing home thought the men weren’t getting enough excitement and decided to run past the door naked. The men saw the women streak by out of the corners of their eyes. One of the men asked the other, “Did you see that? What were they wearing?” The other man responded, “I don’t know, but it needs to be ironed.”
Amazing.
Pauline Evelyn Toms (1922-2015)
NFL Predictions – Week 9
Total (weeks 1-9) – SU: 83-47 ATS: 66-62-4 O/U: 75-56-1
Week 1 – SU: 10-6 ATS: 10-6 O/U: 11-5
Week 2 – SU: 8-8 ATS: 9-7 O/U: 9-7
Week 3 – SU: 10-6 ATS: 2-14 O/U: 7-8-1
Week 4 – SU: 10-5 ATS: 9-6 O/U: 9-6
Week 5 – SU: 7-7 ATS: 9-4-1 O/U: 6-8
Week 6 – SU: 13-2 ATS: 9-4-1 O/U: 8-6
Week 7 – SU: 10-4 ATS: 6-8 O/U: 10-4
Week 8 – SU: 9-5 ATS: 7-5-2 O/U: 7-7
Week 9 – SU: 8-5 ATS: 5-8 O/U: 8-5
Cleveland at Cincinnati
Prediction: Bengals 25-19
Pick: Browns +13
Total: Under 45.5
Tennessee at New Orleans
Prediction: Saints 28-20
Pick: Saints -7.5
Total: Over 48
Miami at Buffalo
Prediction: Bills 22-21
Pick: Dolphins +3
Total: Under 44
Washington at New England
Prediction: Patriots 29-21
Pick: Washington Football Team +14
Total: Under 52
Jacksonville at NY Jets
Prediction: Jets 23-17
Pick: Jets -2.5
Total: Under 42.5
Oakland at Pittsburgh
Prediction: Steelers 25-19
Pick: Steelers -4.5
Total: Under 48
St. Louis at Minnesota
Prediction: Vikings 21-18 (NAILED IT!)
Pick: Vikings -2
Total: Under 40
Green Bay at Carolina
Prediction: Packers 24-23
Pick: Panthers +2.5
Total: Over 46
NY Giants at Tampa Bay
Prediction: Giants 22-21
Pick: Buccaneers +2.5
Total: Under 49.5
Atlanta at San Francisco
Prediction: 49ers 23-21
Pick: 49ers +7
Total: Under 44.5
Denver at Indianapolis
Prediction: Broncos 25-23
Pick: Colts +5.5
Total: Over 45
Philadelphia at Dallas
Prediction: Cowboys 25-23
Pick: Cowboys +3
Total: Over 44
Chicago at San Diego
Prediction: Chargers 25-21
Pick: Chargers -4
Total: Under 49.5
NFL Picks – Week 8
Total (weeks 1-8) – SU: 75-42 ATS: 61-54-4 O/U: 67-51-1
Week 1 – SU: 10-6 ATS: 10-6 O/U: 11-5
Week 2 – SU: 8-8 ATS: 9-7 O/U: 9-7
Week 3 – SU: 10-6 ATS: 2-14 O/U: 7-8-1
Week 4 – SU: 10-5 ATS: 9-6 O/U: 9-6
Week 5 – SU: 7-7 ATS: 9-4-1 O/U: 6-8
Week 6 – SU: 13-2 ATS: 9-4-1 O/U: 8-6
Week 7 – SU: 10-4 ATS: 6-8 O/U: 10-4
Week 8 – SU: 9-5 ATS: 7-5-2 O/U: 7-7
Miami at New England
Prediction: Patriots 29-22
Pick: Dolphins +8
Total: Under 51.5
Detroit at Kansas City
Prediction: Chiefs 24-21
Pick: Lions +4
Total: Under 45.5
Minnesota at Chicago
Prediction: Bears 22-21
Pick: Bears EVEN
Total: Over 42.5
Tampa Bay at Atlanta
Prediction: Falcons 26-20
Pick: Buccaneers +7
Total: Under 48.5
NY Giants at New Orleans
Prediction: Saints 27-23
Pick: Saints -3 PUSH
Total: Over 49.5
San Francisco at St. Louis
Prediction: 49ers 20-19
Pick: 49ers +8
Total: Under 39.5
Arizona at Cleveland
Prediction: Cardinals 22-21
Pick: Browns +6
Total: Under 46
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh
Prediction: Steelers 23-22
Pick: Bengals +1.5
Total: Under 48.5
San Diego at Baltimore
Prediction: Ravens 24-22
Pick: Chargers +3 PUSH
Total: Under 50.5
Tennessee at Houston
Prediction: Texans 24-19
Pick: Texans -4
Total: Under 43.5
NY Jets at Oakland
Prediction: Jets 21-20
Pick: Raiders +3
Total: Under 44.5
Seattle at Dallas
Prediction: Seahawks 22-20
Pick: Cowboys +6
Total: Over 41
Green Bay at Denver
Prediction: Broncos 25-23
Pick: Broncos +2.5
Total: Over 45.5
Indianapolis at Carolina
Prediction: Panthers 24-22
Pick:Colts +7
Total: Under 46.5
Stats in the Wild 