NCAA Football Rankings – 11/11/2012
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RIPPEN through week 9
Something I just noticed is that the team with the higher rated quarterback based on RIPPEN won every single game in week 9. QB rating does a great job too, but it missed one game last week. Ryan was 102.8 and Romo was 109.3, but Ryan’s Falcons won the game. This is due entirely to the fact the Romo threw for a touchdown. Other than that their numbers are nearly identical. If you take that one touchdown away from Romo, his QB rating would have ben 99.8 with the exact same stats compared to Ryan’s 102.8. Passing touchdowns are so much more about luck and what plays the offensive coordinator is calling. When evaluating a quarterback, they should probably be largely ignored as is done in RIPPEN.
Week 9 performances:
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RIPPEN through week 9 for the year:
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NFL Predictions – Week 10
Week 9 was my worst week of the year against the spread and my best week of the year picking winners straight-up.
Overall Records for 2012
SU: 90-55-1 (61.99%)
ATS: 79-67 (54.11%) (ROI: 5.92%)
O/U: 79-63-1 (55.59%) (ROI: 8.99%)
Week 10 (6-7-1 SU, 7-7 ATS, 8-6 O/U)
Week 9 (11-3 SU, 6-8 ATS, 6-7-1 O/U)
Week 8 (10-4 SU, 9-5 ATS, 9-4 O/U)
Week 7 (10-3 SU, 6-7 ATS, 6-7 O/U)
Week 6 (6-8 SU, 7-7 ATS, 6-7 O/U)
Week 5 (10-4 SU, 7-7 ATS, 7-7 O/U)
Week 4 (10-5 SU, 10-5 ATS, 12-2 O/U)
Week 3 (5-11 SU, 9-7 ATS, 9-7 O/U)
Week 2 (11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS, 8-8 O/U)
Week 1 (11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS, 8-8 O/U)
Week 10
Thursday @8:20pm
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars
Prediction: Colts win 23-14
Pick: Colts +3
O/U: Under 42.5
Sunday @1pm
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots
Prediction: Patriots win 35-21
Pick: Patriots -11
O/U: Over 51
New York Giants at Cincinnati Bengals
Prediction: Giants win 27-24
Pick: Bengals +4
O/U: Over 48.5
San Diego Chargers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Prediction: Chargers win 27-26
Pick: Chargers +3
O/U: Over 48
Denver Broncos at Carolina Panthers
Prediction: Broncos win 24-23
Pick: Panthers +4.5
O/U: Under 48
Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins
Prediction: Dolphins win 22-21
Pick: Titans +6
O/U: Under 44.5
Oakland Raiders at Baltimore Ravens
Prediction: Ravens win 27-23
Pick: Raiders +7.5
O/U: Over 46
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints
Prediction: Falcons win 26-25
Pick: Saints +2.5
O/U: Under 53.5
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings
Prediction: Lions win 28-25
Pick: Lions -2
O/U: Over 47
Sunday @4:05pm
New York Jets at Seattle Seahawks
Prediction: Seahawks win 23-22
Pick: Jets +6.5
O/U: Over 38.5
Sunday @4:25pm
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles
Prediction: Eagles win 26-24
Pick: Eagles -1.5
O/U: Over 45
St. Louis Rams at San Francisco 49ers
Prediction: 49ers win 28-16 (TIE?)
Pick: Rams +11.5
O/U: Over 38.5
Sunday @8:20pm
Houston Texans at Chicago Bears
Prediction: Bears win 26-25
Pick: Texans +1
O/U: Over 42
Monday @8:30pm
Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers
Prediction: Steelers win 25-18
Pick: Chiefs +12.5
O/U: Over 43
Cheers.
NFL Rankings – 11/7/2012
StatsInTheWild NFL rankings as of November 7, 2012 at 12:34pm. SOS=strength of schedule
| Team | Rank | Change | Record | Projected Record | ESPN | TeamRankings.com | SOS | Points Diff |
| Chicago | 1 | ↑1 | 7-1 | 12-4 | 3 | 1 | 8 | +116 |
| Houston | 2 | ↓1 | 7-1 | 12-4 | 2 | 3 | 16 | +100 |
| Atlanta | 3 | ↑2 | 8-0 | 13-3 | 1 | 2 | 25 | +77 |
| Green Bay | 4 | ↑2 | 6-3 | 10-6 | 6 | 4 | 5 | +52 |
| SF | 5 | ↓1 | 6-2 | 11-5 | 4 | 5 | 7 | +86 |
| NE | 6 | ↓2 | 5-3 | 10-6 | 9 | 7 | 14 | +92 |
| NY Giants | 7 | – | 6-3 | 10-6 | 5 | 8 | 22 | +69 |
| Denver | 8 | ↑1 | 5-3 | 11-5 | 8 | 6 | 26 | +60 |
| Seattle | 9 | ↑3 | 5-4 | 9-7 | 12 | 11 | 6 | +16 |
| Baltimore | 10 | ↑1 | 6-2 | 11-5 | 7 | 10 | 27 | +23 |
| Minnesota | 11 | ↓3 | 5-4 | 8-8 | 16 | 20 | 4 | +7 |
| Detroit | 12 | ↑2 | 4-4 | 7-9 | 14 | 13 | 2 | +4 |
| Miami | 13 | ↓3 | 4-4 | 8-8 | 15 | 15 | 19 | +21 |
| Tampa Bay | 14 | ↑2 | 4-4 | 8-8 | 13 | 16 | 23 | +41 |
| Pittsburgh | 15 | – | 5-3 | 10-6 | 10 | 9 | 32 | +27 |
| Arizona | 16 | ↓3 | 4-5 | 7-9 | 20 | 23 | 1 | -29 |
| St. Louis | 17 | – | 3-5 | 7-9 | 24 | 21 | 3 | -49 |
| Indianapolis | 18 | ↑2 | 5-3 | 9-7 | 11 | 12 | 20 | -32 |
| San Diego | 19 | ↑3 | 4-4 | 8-8 | 17 | 26 | 31 | +28 |
| Dallas | 20 | ↓2 | 3-5 | 7-9 | 18 | 14 | 15 | -31 |
| NY Jets | 21 | ↓2 | 3-5 | 7-9 | 25 | 18 | 11 | -32 |
| NO | 22 | ↑4 | 3-5 | 6-10 | 22 | 17 | 12 | -11 |
| Carolina | 23 | ↑4 | 2-6 | 6-10 | 29 | 19 | 13 | -31 |
| Washington | 24 | ↓3 | 3-6 | 6-10 | 19 | 24 | 21 | -22 |
| Buffalo | 25 | ↓2 | 3-5 | 6-10 | 28 | 27 | 17 | -68 |
| Cincinnati | 26 | ↓1 | 3-5 | 7-9 | 23 | 29 | 30 | -29 |
| Philadelphia | 27 | ↓3 | 3-5 | 6-10 | 21 | 25 | 18 | -50 |
| Oakland | 28 | – | 3-5 | 6-10 | 26 | 28 | 29 | -58 |
| Tennessee | 29 | – | 3-6 | 6-10 | 27 | 22 | 9 | -126 |
| Cleveland | 30 | – | 2-7 | 5-11 | 30 | 30 | 28 | -42 |
| Jacksonville | 31 | – | 1-7 | 4-12 | 31 | 31 | 10 | -102 |
| Kansas City | 32 | – | 1-7 | 3-13 | 32 | 32 | 24 | -107 |
Best
Best team in the league: Chicago
Best undefeated team: Atlanta
Best 7 win team: Chicago
Best 6 win team: Green Bay
Best 5 win team: New England
Best 4 win team: Detroit
Best 3 win team: St. Louis
Best 2 win team: Carolina
Best 1 win team: Jacksonville
Worst
Worst 7 win team: Houston
Worst 6 win team: Baltimore
Worst 5 win team: Indianapolis
Worst 4 win team: San Diego
Worst 3 win team: Tennessee
Worst 2 win team: Cleveland
Worst 1 win team: Kansas City
Worst team in the league: Kansas City
Most
Most under-rated team: (#17) St. Louis (ESPN has them 24)
Most over-rated team: (#18) Indianapolis (ESPN has them 11)
Cheers.
Nate Silver is the MC Hammer of Statistics
From this Gawker.com article:
Okay, clearly the guy [Silver] is good with numbers, but all the praise seems kind of overboard.
Well, look, you can see his record for yourself: 50 for 50. But it’s true, Silver’s getting a lot of credit for calling Obama’s victory when basically any statistician or political scientist who’s been following the race made the exact same call — and in fact, some of those statisticians and political scientists have criticized Silver’s model for being opaque and overcomplicated.
And it’s very easy to miss the forest for the trees, and lionize Silver the individual writer instead of a broad push for data-driven analysis in political journalism. After Silver’s great showing on Tuesday, it’d be easy for political horserace journalists to co-opt him and treat him as a unique oracle, instead of understanding that it’s the statistical approach that made him — and Linzer, Wang, Simon Jackman, Mark Blumenthal and others — handicap the election so perfectly.
But on the other hand, Silver is by far the most visible of the new breed of “quant” political writers by virtue of his spot at the Times, and by a long shot the one who’s attracted the most, and widest array, of haters. (Hi.) If people overpraise him for making what was, based on the numbers, an easy call on Election Day, it’s only because he’s been over-criticized for it all year.
Let me re-iterate that I am a Nate Silver fan, but I dont think he’s a genius. Well, not in the traditional sense. He does good work, but plenty of people called this election correctly. Gawker names just a few: Linzer, Wang, Simon Jackman, Mark Blumenthal. So, it’s not just that Silver got the election correct. It’s something else. Silver’s real skill, in my mind, is that not only does he do adequate statistical analysis, but he’s also able to get people to pay attention to him (and getting people to pay him). Silver’s not doing anything ground-breaking, but he has brought statistical analysis to the mainstream. He’s just better at marketing himself than almost everyone else in the field. He’s sort of like MC Hammer in the 1990s: Hammer wasn’t the first to rap and wasn’t the most talented, but his 1990 album was the first to get to number #1 and sold something like 18 million copies. (And, more importantly, both Hammer and Silver have baseball backgrounds). Hammer brought rap to the mainstream; Silver brought numbers.
What Silver has done is take statistics out of cluttered offices filled with computers chugging away crunching numbers and brought it to mainstream America. And he’s cashing in like no one ever has before him. And for that he IS a genius.
Cheers.
Obama’s big win does not mean Nate Silver is a towering electoral genius
But all these stats triumphalists have it wrong. Nate Silver didn’t nail it; the pollsters did. The vaunted Silver “picks”—the ones that scored a perfect record on Election Day—were derived from averaged state-wide data. According to the final tallies from FiveThirtyEight, Obama led by 1.3 points in Virginia, 3.6 in Ohio, 3.6 in Nevada, and 1.9 in Colorado. He won all those states, just like he won every other state in which he’d led in averaged, state-wide polls. That doesn’t mean that Silver’s magic model works. It means that polling works, assuming that its methodology is sound, and that it’s done repeatedly. –Daniel Engber on Slate



