I suppose this counts as a visual display of information, right?

NCAA Football Rankings – 11/11/2012

 
Rank Teams records
1 OREGON 10-0
2 KANSAS STATE 10-0
3 ALABAMA 9-1
4 NOTRE DAME 10-0
5 FLORIDA 9-1
6 TEXAS A&M 8-2
7 OKLAHOMA 7-2
8 LSU 8-2
9 STANFORD 8-2
10 GEORGIA 9-1
11 SO CAROLINA 8-2
12 OREGON STATE 7-2
13 OHIO STATE 10-0
14 FLORIDA STATE 9-1
15 USC 7-3
16 TEXAS 8-2
17 CLEMSON 9-1
18 OKLAHOMA STATE 6-3
19 UCLA 8-2
20 NEBRASKA 8-2
21 ARIZONA 6-4
22 TEXAS TECH 7-3
23 WISCONSIN 7-3
24 MICHIGAN 7-3
25 MISS STATE 7-3

Full Rankings

RIPPEN through week 9

Something I just noticed is that the team with the higher rated quarterback based on RIPPEN won every single game in week 9.  QB rating does a great job too, but it missed one game last week.  Ryan was 102.8 and Romo was 109.3, but Ryan’s Falcons won the game.  This is due entirely to the fact the Romo threw for a touchdown.  Other than that their numbers are nearly identical.  If you take that one touchdown away from Romo, his QB rating would have ben 99.8 with the exact same stats compared to Ryan’s 102.8. Passing touchdowns are so much more about luck and what plays the offensive coordinator is calling.  When evaluating a quarterback, they should probably be largely ignored as is done in RIPPEN.

A full explanation of RIPPEN

Week 9 performances:

 
Rank Player Team RIPPEN QB_Rating
1 Philip Rivers SD 40.5 125.0
2 Matt Ryan ATL 38.9 102.8
3 Tony Romo DAL 38.6 109.3
4 Matt Schaub HOU 38.2 126.8
5 Matthew Stafford DET 34.8 93.6
6 Andrew Luck IND 33.6 105.6
7 Jay Cutler CHI 32.3 138.1
8 Ryan Tannehill MIA 30.0 90.9
9 Russell Wilson SEA 29.9 127.3
10 Cam Newton CAR 27.2 100.1
11 Drew Brees NO 27.1 128.2
12 Josh Freeman TB 25.9 108.6
13 Peyton Manning DEN 21.4 105.8
14 Ryan Fitzpatrick BUF 18.5 83.1
15 Ben Roethlisberger PIT 17.9 98.8
16 Andy Dalton CIN 17.5 81.3
17 Robert Griffin III WAS 14.1 74.2
18 Aaron Rodgers GB 13.0 96.9
19 John Skelton ARI 12.0 69.7
20 Matt Cassel KC 11.7 68.3
21 Blaine Gabbert JAX 9.2 81.0
22 Joe Flacco BAL 8.6 94.6
23 Michael Vick PHI 8.4 72.4
24 Carson Palmer OAK 7.8 85.0
25 Eli Manning NYG 6.9 41.1
26 Brandon Weeden CLE 4.6 44.4
27 Christian Ponder MIN 0.7 37.3

RIPPEN through week 9 for the year:

 
Rank Player Team RIPPEN QB_Rating
1 Peyton Manning DEN 28.2 108.6
2 Matt Ryan ATL 24.4 103.0
3 Tom Brady NE 24.1 100.6
4 Matt Schaub HOU 23.3 96.8
5 Aaron Rodgers GB 22.6 107.4
6 Cam Newton CAR 22.6 77.7
7 Robert Griffin III WAS 22.5 93.9
8 Alex Smith SF 21.8 102.1
9 Ben Roethlisberger PIT 20.4 101.1
10 Drew Brees NO 19.3 95.8
11 Josh Freeman TB 19.0 95.1
12 Jay Cutler CHI 19.0 85.3
13 Tony Romo DAL 18.6 82.2
14 Andrew Luck IND 18.4 79.0
15 Ryan Tannehill MIA 18.3 78.2
16 Matthew Stafford DET 17.6 83.2
17 Sam Bradford STL 17.1 82.4
18 Jake Locker TEN 17.0 68.5
19 Eli Manning NYG 16.5 85.5
20 Andy Dalton CIN 16.0 86.7
21 Russell Wilson SEA 15.8 87.2
22 Philip Rivers SD 15.3 86.5
23 Christian Ponder MIN 14.5 82.0
24 Michael Vick PHI 13.7 77.7
25 Joe Flacco BAL 13.0 85.0
26 Ryan Fitzpatrick BUF 12.9 85.6
27 Carson Palmer OAK 12.6 85.6
28 Mark Sanchez NYJ 11.5 72.8
29 Matt Cassel KC 10.7 68.9
30 Brandon Weeden CLE 10.2 67.9
31 Kevin Kolb ARI 9.8 86.1
32 John Skelton ARI 9.5 65.8
33 Blaine Gabbert JAX 8.8 78.4
34 Matt Hasselbeck TEN 7.7 81.4

NFL Predictions – Week 10

Week 9 was my worst week of the year against the spread and my best week of the year picking winners straight-up.

Overall Records for 2012

SU: 90-55-1 (61.99%)

ATS: 79-67 (54.11%) (ROI: 5.92%)

O/U: 79-63-1 (55.59%) (ROI: 8.99%)

Week 10 (6-7-1 SU, 7-7 ATS, 8-6 O/U)

Week 9 (11-3 SU, 6-8 ATS, 6-7-1 O/U)

Week 8 (10-4 SU, 9-5 ATS, 9-4 O/U)

Week 7 (10-3 SU, 6-7 ATS, 6-7 O/U)

Week 6 (6-8 SU, 7-7 ATS, 6-7 O/U)

Week 5 (10-4 SU, 7-7 ATS, 7-7 O/U)

Week 4 (10-5 SU, 10-5 ATS, 12-2 O/U)

Week 3 (5-11 SU, 9-7 ATS, 9-7 O/U)

Week 2 (11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS, 8-8 O/U)

Week 1 (11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS, 8-8 O/U)

Week 10

Thursday @8:20pm

Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars

Prediction: Colts win 23-14

Pick: Colts +3

O/U: Under 42.5

Sunday @1pm

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots

Prediction: Patriots win 35-21

Pick: Patriots -11

O/U: Over 51

New York Giants at Cincinnati Bengals

Prediction: Giants win 27-24

Pick: Bengals +4

O/U: Over 48.5

San Diego Chargers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Prediction: Chargers win 27-26

Pick: Chargers +3

O/U: Over 48

Denver Broncos at Carolina Panthers

Prediction: Broncos win 24-23

Pick: Panthers +4.5

O/U: Under 48

Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins

Prediction: Dolphins win 22-21

Pick: Titans +6

O/U: Under 44.5

Oakland Raiders at Baltimore Ravens

Prediction: Ravens win 27-23

Pick:  Raiders +7.5

O/U: Over 46

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints

Prediction: Falcons win 26-25

Pick: Saints +2.5

O/U: Under 53.5

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings

Prediction: Lions win 28-25

Pick: Lions -2

O/U: Over 47

Sunday @4:05pm

New York Jets at Seattle Seahawks

Prediction: Seahawks win 23-22

Pick: Jets +6.5

O/U: Over 38.5

Sunday @4:25pm

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles

Prediction: Eagles win 26-24

Pick: Eagles -1.5

O/U: Over 45

St. Louis Rams at San Francisco 49ers

Prediction: 49ers win 28-16 (TIE?)

Pick: Rams +11.5

O/U: Over 38.5

Sunday @8:20pm

Houston Texans at Chicago Bears

Prediction: Bears win 26-25

Pick: Texans +1

O/U: Over 42

Monday @8:30pm

Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers

Prediction: Steelers win 25-18

Pick: Chiefs +12.5

O/U: Over 43

Cheers.

NFL Rankings – 11/7/2012

StatsInTheWild NFL rankings as of November 7, 2012 at 12:34pm.  SOS=strength of schedule

Team Rank Change Record Projected Record ESPN TeamRankings.com SOS Points Diff
Chicago 1 ↑1 7-1 12-4 3 1 8 +116
Houston 2 ↓1 7-1 12-4 2 3 16 +100
Atlanta 3 ↑2 8-0 13-3 1 2 25 +77
Green Bay 4 ↑2 6-3 10-6 6 4 5 +52
SF 5 ↓1 6-2 11-5 4 5 7 +86
NE 6 ↓2 5-3 10-6 9 7 14 +92
NY Giants 7 6-3 10-6 5 8 22 +69
Denver 8 ↑1 5-3 11-5 8 6 26 +60
Seattle 9 ↑3 5-4 9-7 12 11 6 +16
Baltimore 10 ↑1 6-2 11-5 7 10 27 +23
Minnesota 11 ↓3 5-4 8-8 16 20 4 +7
Detroit 12 ↑2 4-4 7-9 14 13 2 +4
Miami 13 ↓3 4-4 8-8 15 15 19 +21
Tampa Bay 14 ↑2 4-4 8-8 13 16 23 +41
Pittsburgh 15 5-3 10-6 10 9 32 +27
Arizona 16 ↓3 4-5 7-9 20 23 1 -29 
St. Louis 17 3-5 7-9 24 21 3 -49
Indianapolis 18 ↑2 5-3 9-7 11 12 20 -32
San Diego 19 ↑3 4-4 8-8 17 26 31 +28
Dallas 20 ↓2 3-5 7-9 18 14 15 -31
NY Jets 21 ↓2 3-5 7-9 25 18 11 -32
NO 22 ↑4 3-5 6-10 22 17 12 -11
Carolina 23 ↑4 2-6 6-10 29 19 13 -31
Washington 24 ↓3 3-6 6-10 19 24 21 -22
Buffalo 25 ↓2 3-5 6-10 28 27 17 -68
Cincinnati 26 ↓1 3-5 7-9 23 29 30 -29
Philadelphia 27 ↓3 3-5 6-10 21 25 18 -50
Oakland 28 3-5 6-10 26 28 29 -58
Tennessee 29 3-6 6-10 27 22 9 -126
Cleveland 30 2-7 5-11 30 30 28 -42
Jacksonville 31 1-7 4-12 31 31 10 -102
Kansas City 32 1-7 3-13 32 32 24 -107

Best

Best team in the league: Chicago

Best undefeated team: Atlanta

Best 7 win team: Chicago

Best 6 win team: Green Bay

Best 5 win team: New England

Best 4 win team: Detroit

Best 3 win team: St. Louis

Best 2 win team: Carolina

Best 1 win team: Jacksonville

Worst

Worst 7 win team: Houston

Worst 6 win team: Baltimore

Worst 5 win team: Indianapolis

Worst 4 win team: San Diego

Worst 3 win team: Tennessee

Worst 2 win team: Cleveland

Worst 1 win team: Kansas City

Worst team in the league: Kansas City

Most

Most under-rated team: (#17) St. Louis (ESPN has them 24)

Most over-rated team: (#18) Indianapolis (ESPN has them 11)

Cheers.

 

Nate Silver is the MC Hammer of Statistics

From this Gawker.com article:

Okay, clearly the guy [Silver] is good with numbers, but all the praise seems kind of overboard.

Well, look, you can see his record for yourself: 50 for 50. But it’s true, Silver’s getting a lot of credit for calling Obama’s victory when basically any statistician or political scientist who’s been following the race made the exact same call — and in fact, some of those statisticians and political scientists have criticized Silver’s model for being opaque and overcomplicated.

And it’s very easy to miss the forest for the trees, and lionize Silver the individual writer instead of a broad push for data-driven analysis in political journalism. After Silver’s great showing on Tuesday, it’d be easy for political horserace journalists to co-opt him and treat him as a unique oracle, instead of understanding that it’s the statistical approach that made him — and Linzer, Wang, Simon Jackman, Mark Blumenthal and others — handicap the election so perfectly.

But on the other hand, Silver is by far the most visible of the new breed of “quant” political writers by virtue of his spot at the Times, and by a long shot the one who’s attracted the most, and widest array, of haters. (Hi.) If people overpraise him for making what was, based on the numbers, an easy call on Election Day, it’s only because he’s been over-criticized for it all year.

Let me re-iterate that I am a Nate Silver fan, but I dont think he’s a genius.  Well, not in the traditional sense.  He does good work, but plenty of people called this election correctly. Gawker names just a few: Linzer, Wang, Simon Jackman, Mark Blumenthal.  So, it’s not just that Silver got the election correct.  It’s something else. Silver’s real skill, in my mind, is that not only does he do adequate statistical analysis, but he’s also able to get people to pay attention to him (and getting people to pay him).  Silver’s not doing anything ground-breaking, but he has brought statistical analysis to the mainstream.  He’s just better at marketing himself than almost everyone else in the field.  He’s sort of like MC Hammer in the 1990s: Hammer wasn’t the first to rap and wasn’t the most talented, but his 1990 album was the first to get to number #1 and sold something like 18 million copies.  (And, more importantly, both Hammer and Silver have baseball backgrounds).  Hammer brought rap to the mainstream; Silver brought numbers.

What Silver has done is take statistics out of cluttered offices filled with computers chugging away crunching numbers and brought it to mainstream America.  And he’s cashing in like no one ever has before him.  And for that he IS a genius.

Cheers.

Obama’s big win does not mean Nate Silver is a towering electoral genius

But all these stats triumphalists have it wrong. Nate Silver didn’t nail it; the pollsters did. The vaunted Silver “picks”—the ones that scored a perfect record on Election Day—were derived from averaged state-wide data. According to the final tallies from FiveThirtyEight, Obama led by 1.3 points in Virginia, 3.6 in Ohio, 3.6 in Nevada, and 1.9 in Colorado. He won all those states, just like he won every other state in which he’d led in averaged, state-wide polls. That doesn’t mean that Silver’s magic model works. It means that polling works, assuming that its methodology is sound, and that it’s done repeatedly. –Daniel Engber on Slate

Ohio

 

65.9% reporting and Obama with a 2.1% lead.  

A lead and no chance

Right now, Romney is leading by over 1.5 million votes in the popular vote and is up by 17 in the electoral college, and he has virtually no chance to win the election.  

Florida