Category: Uncategorized
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So, there are less than two weeks until election day and Trump is “leading”. FiveThirtyEight gives Trump a 54% chance to win the election. And betting markets also have Trump as a favorite to win (Polymarket gives Trump a 66.1% chance to win). And Trump might win. But…..I don’t see it. I think I’d rather…
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So someone pointed me to this article, “Weaponized Polling Is More Dangerous Than Ever” where the author argues that right leaning pollsters (or “pollsters”) are conducting polls that intentionally make Trump look like he’s in a stronger position than he is. (The author goes on to offer what I consider to be compelling reasons why…
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American Frances Tiafoe defeated Dimitrov in the US Open quarterfinals last evening. Earlier yesterday another American, Taylor Fritz, beat Zverev to also advance to the semifinals. They will face each other on Friday guaranteeing an American will make the finals for the first time since 2006 when Andy Roddick made it to the finals and…
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Lost a few spots yesterday. Currently in 75th. I still need UConn and South Carolina to win in all in the Men’s and Women’s tournament, respectively. Pre tournament probabilities that the remaining men’s teams would reach the Final 4: UConn: 56.0% (100% in my aggressive Bracket) Purdue: 51.8% Tennessee: 18.2% Alabama: 10.5% Illinois: 8.11% (0%…
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I thought I finally understood the scoring for this contest, but I can’t reproduce my score on the leaderboard. So I have no idea. But I’m at 141 after the first weekend. Unlikely to cash, looking to just finish top 100. Sweet Sixteen probabilities for women: (Men’s Sweet Sixteen probabilities are here): South Carolina: 91.9%…
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Well, I’ve gone up in the rankings every scoring update. From 233rd to 170th to currently in 126th. Just about top 15%. That’s positive. And with the new scoring system, there is a ton of room to move up (and DOWN) very quickly. Probabilities for women’s games today (remember these are pre-tournament probabilities that these…
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Currently in 170th. Better than yesterday. My Kaggle probabilities for the men’s games today:(Remember, these aren’t probabilities that these teams will win this particular game, it’s the pre-tournament probability that they would make it to a particular round.) Colorado: 18.3%Marquette: 60.27% Purdue: 84.1%Utah St: 7.62% James Madison: 11.67%Duke: 50.77% Clemson: 17.55%Baylor: 53.01% Grand Canyon: 13.95%Alabama:…
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The real stories everyone should be talking about are how David Carr beat Keegan O’Toole in the semi-finals of the NCAA wrestling tournament at 165, Carter Starocci had to wrestle former national champions back to back in the quarter- (Mekhi Lewis) and semi-finals (Shane Griffith) and he beat them both, and Drake Ayala of Iowa…
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I submitted my March Madness Machine Learning Mania today. My two entries consist of picks made using the actual spread for first round games and then a simple Bradley-Terry model for the games past that. In my second bracket, which I called the “aggressive” one, I picks UConn in the men’s bracket and South Carolina…
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We all know about Super Bowl squares. But last night my friend asked me to be in an NCAA squares pool. I asked him how it worked and he explained to me that it’s the same as a Super Bowl pool, but you have the same numbers for all 63 games (not the stupid F-ing…
Stats in the Wild 