Category Archives: Uncategorized
NCAA bet’s today
I’ll be live blogging the NCAA tournament today from the Luxor sportsbook in Las Vegas, NV. The line to place a bet is about 100 deep right now. I got all of my bets for today in last night. I’m 4-9 so far through my first two days here. Not good.
My bet’s today:
- Manhattan +16.5
- North Dakota State +4
- Syracuse -12.5
- 4 team teaser: Syracuse -10, Harvard +7, Manhattan +21, and North Dakota State +8.
And a bunch of silly long shot parlays.
Cheers.
Please don’t give RealMoneySports any of your money
I was just driving home from work, and I heard a guy named Adam Meyer on the radio (shame on you WEEI for letting this guy on the radio). He was offering a discount deal on his picks for the NCAA tournament through his website RealMoneySports.com. Guys like this are ALWAYS a scam. If he really was that great at picking games, he sure as hell wouldn’t be telling you about them. He’d be swimming in a pool filled with hundred dollar bills. It is possible that he really is surrounded by Benjamins, but it’s not because he’s picking consistent winners. It’s because vulnerable people fall for this too-good-to-be-true scam and fork over their hard earned cash.
Anyway, Mr. Meyer was on the radio touting his discount picks for the NCAA tournament. So, how much does Mr . Meyer want for these 6 weeks of picks? He claims that his top clients pay $250,000 per year. (A QUARTER MILLION DOLLARS!) That’s a ton of money. But since Adam is such a generous guy, he’s going to give you a sweet deal. I like sweet deals, so I called the number and spoke with a guy named Ken, and he told me that for only 750 I could get three weeks of picks. Which led to this conversation:
Me: “7 dollars and fifty cents.”
Ken: “No. Are you kidding?”
Me: “Are you kidding?
When I then asked why someone would do this and if he had any records of his picks he got angry and hung up.
So in conclusion: SCAM SCAM SCAM SCAM SCAM
Please don’t give this guy any money. Unless you hate money.
Cheers.
NHL shootouts aren’t random. So let’s stop calling them that.
The National Hockey League has once again made headlines for tweaking its standards of playoff qualification, this time deciding it would look into into modifying the league’s shootout system. In the current structure, a shootout concludes any 5-minute overtime session ending without a goal, with the winning team earning an extra point towards season standings
One of the major factors in the NHL’s thinking, as it turns out, is that shootouts are too random. Just today, a Toronto columnist called the shootout a coin flip.
Statisticians, including ones I have a lot of respect for, have frequently enforced this idea. In an old post on SB Nation, St. Lawrence associate professor Michael Schuckers walks through several analyses to show that the distribution of…
View original post 1,128 more words
Conference Spam
I recently received the following email advertising the “outstanding event Obesity-2014”:
It is quite an honor to be so “highly regarded in Medicine field” and be invited to such a conference. However, there are several problems here. For instance, I don’t work with obesity at all. I have published a paper about nutrition as a second author providing statistical support. That’s it. So sadly, I suspect that I am not actually “highly regarded in Medicine field”, and I am just being spammed to try to get me to attend this conference. So what I am wondering is, does this work? Is there anyone out there who is going to be swayed by this grammatically weak spam invitation trying to stroke their ego? The answer must be yes, or else they wouldn’t do it, right?
Well, I’m sorry yo the organizers, but I will not be attending Obesity-2014. I’d ask them to stop spamming me, but I get way too much joy out of these terrible form letters.
Cheers,
Greg
Projected Tournament Seeds
Updated 3-10-2014 at 9:19pm
Note: These aren’t necessarily projections of what I think WILL happen, these are projections of what I think SHOULD happen.
Last 4 in: Georgetown, Stanford, Minnesota, Florida State
First 4 out: Missouri, West Virginia, Dayton, Arkansas
|
Penalty rates in the NFL
In a 2012 paper in Economic Inquiry, the University of Mississippi’s Carl Kitchens described how a repositioning of an NFL referee led to a change in the frequency of offensive holding penalties. Kitchens writes:
The results suggest that the detection effect is large. Simply by repositioning the officials in the NFL, the players with an extra set of eyes on them experienced a 20% increase in the number of called penalties, while the set of players who had the set of eyes removed had a large decrease in the number of penalties detected.
Kitchens used two full years of play-by-play data, 2009, and 2010, to reach his conclusion. His models also suggested that the change was largest on run plays, and negligible on pass plays. The paper, in its original form, can be read here, and in published form, read here.
Referee behavior has always fascinated me…
View original post 289 more words
NCAA Basketball Rankings
|
My 2 cents on Sports Marketing and what I learned from SMU Basketball this week
From Mark Cuban: “Everyone majors in sports marketing. There is no more worthless major. “
I had the pleasure of going to an SMU Basketball game this past week. It wasn’t a huge game from a standings perspective. It wasn’t a big rivalry game. It wasn’t a game between 2 powerhouse teams. It was an important game as every game is for an up and coming team like SMU. But there was no one outside the two teams that were really paying attention to the outcome. Bottom line, it was a game on the schedule.
It was a game on the schedule for every one but SMU basketball fans. For SMU basketball fans it was their chance to show off to any and all newcomers who walked into the gym. President Bush (43) was there. Dejuan Blair, Jae Crowder, Casey Smith and others from the Mavs were there (I had no idea they were going to be there). I ran into friends I hadn’t seen…
View original post 2,851 more words
Infographic?
I saw this “infographic” as few days ago and saved it as a draft in my blog. The source of this graphic was a Newsweek article entitled “Two Numbers: It Pays (A Little More) to Flip Burgers Down Under”. The article itself was fairly interesting, but this “infographic” is terrible. Basically, this image consists of two numbers, and then some graphical components that have nothing to do with those numbers. The size of the people isn’t related to the numbers, nor is the number of people. So then I thought, well the number of people must represent the number of countries represented. There is one person on the left corresponding to one country (USA). But there are 8 people on the left, and that average consists of ten countries. So this makes no sense either. And the only other bit of information that we get from the group of people on the right is that three of the top ten countries based on minimum wage are Australia, France, and Ireland (I think those are the correct flags?) The image and graphical components of this do nothing to aid in understanding of the numbers, and I this have to give it a failing grade as an infographic. You might as well just put this data in a table, and stick an unrelated image next to it and call it an infographic.
You can’t just throw numbers on an image and call it an infographic. See my “infographic” below.
Cheers.


