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NFL Week 15 Playoff Probabilities
It’s another delightful week of playoff probabilities. With the end of the season just two short weeks away, things are clearing up pretty nicely. Or maybe not at all…
The Lions took a real nice nosedive over the last few weeks, and they can kiss the playoff goodbye. Additionally, the Packer’s tie against the Vikings, while sad on its surface, was actually good, as it boosts them past the Lions. The Bears are in the driver seat, but we can all just agree the NFC North is pathetic. Speaking of sad against the Vikings and pathetic in general, the NFC East! The Eagles could have put away the division, but nope. And yet, they hang onto the East as well as the three seed, thanks to the sadness and patheticness (that’s a perfectly cromulent word) of the Bears and Cowboys.
The big game in the NFC this week is also the big game in sorting out the playoffs, the Saints at the Panthers. The loser of that game has to hope for help from the opponents of the 49ers to hang onto the fifth seed, while the winner should be a near-lock for the two-seed (this is presuming the Seahawks don’t stumble, and take the first seed.)
Over in the AFC, the big Ravens/Dolphins dogfight continues. This is a big week, since the Ravens play the Pats while the Dolphins draw the festering corpse known in most places as the Buffalo Festering Corpses. If the Ravens survive the Patriots, they close the season with the Bengals, who could actually be fighting for the two seed and a bye (again, assuming a Pats loss in week 16.) But the Dolphins still have the Jets, so despite the Ravens having the tiebreaker, the odds are in favor of the Fins.
There are some longshots out there. You can see from the chart, the Steelers and Chargers still have a chance, tiny though it may be. Likewise, the Cardinals, Packers, Lions and Cowboys are still alive. All of these teams need a lot of losing to take place to stand much of a shot, but they could feasibly sneak in. This is what we all love about the NFL: mediocre teams playing out the string, hoping for other mediocre teams to lose! Catch the fever!
NFL Rankings
Pro: The rankings are based on how a team performs and accounts for how many points they would be expected to score based on their statistical output such as rushing yards, passing yards, etc. This ranking considers past seasons statistics with heavier weights placed on games that are more recent. This ranking is the more predictive of the two.
Retro: This ranking only considers strength of schedule and the actual outcome of games in 2013. This is a ranking of who actually has had the best season.
SOS: Is strength of schedule.
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Updated: December 12, 2013
Week 14 NFL Playoff Probabilities
This post is a little late in coming, thanks to a few real life things that popped up, but here we are. Thursday nights Chargers-Broncos game was inconsequential.
As for last week and the playoff probabilities, we have the formula we use solidifying the AFC and it actually contrasts the official picture (we are not the only ones). According to NFL tie-breaking procedures, the Ravens are currently in, but as you can see, we have their actual playoff probability under .5 while Dolphins who are currently just outside the bubble in real life enjoy about a 2/3 probability of making the playoffs. As I alluded to last week, it’s all about the remaining schedules. The Dolphins play the Pats today in their last game against a winning team while the Ravens remaining schedule is all winning teams. (Both play the Patriots, but the Dolphins then play the Bills and the Jets, while the Ravens get Detroit, followed by the Pats, then the Bengals). We’ll see how our formula stands up.
Over in the NFC, the East and South both flip-flopped in terms of leaders, which matters in the East but not in the South. The Saints and Panthers are both locks to go in, it’s just the battle for the two-seed. In the east, the Eagles and the Cowboys for the third time in the last four weeks, keeping fans of mediocrity on their edge of their seats. I guess the Eagles haven’t been THAT mediocre, but still. Speaking of mediocrity, check on the NFC North. At the moment the Lions have the tiebreaker, as well as the edge in our numbers (ever so slightly). The comforting thing is knowing that someone has to win that division. And then get a homefield advantage against better teams in either the 49ers or Panthers.
NFL Picks – 12/8/2013
Overall Records
SU: 115-76-1
ATS: 84-101-7 (-24.64 units)
O/U: 99-87-6 (+3 units)
Week 1 (10-6 SU, 5-10-1 ATS, 7-9 O/U)
Week 2 (11-5 SU, 5-10-1 ATS, 9-7 O/U)
Week 3 (7-9 SU, 5-9-2 ATS, 6-10 O/U)
Week 4 (8-7 SU, 6-8-1 ATS, 7-8 O/U)
Week 5 (8-6 SU, 4-10 ATS, 9-5 O/U)
Week 6 (11-4 SU, 7-8 ATS, 8-7 O/U)
Week 7 (7-8 SU, 7-8 ATS, 7-8 O/U)
Week 8 (11-2 SU, 5-8 ATS, 7-5-1 O/U)
Week 9 (8-5 SU, 9-4 ATS, 8-3-2 O/U)
Week 10 (6-7 SU, 7-5-1 ATS, 6-6-1 O/U)
Week 11 (9-6 SU, 11-4 ATS, 8-7 O/U)
Week 12 (6-6-1 SU, 8-6 ATS, 7-5-2 O/U)
Week 13 (12-4 SU, 5-10-1 ATS, 9-7 O/U)
Week 14 (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS, 1-0 O/U)
December 5, 2013
Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars
Prediction: Texans 26-21
Pick: Texans -3.5
OU: Over 43.5
December 8, 2013
Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers
Prediction: Packers 27-26
Pick: Falcons +4
OU: Over 44
Buffalo Bills at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Prediction: Bills 24-23
Pick: Bills +3
OU: Over 43.5
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints
Prediction: Panthers 23-17
Pick: Panthers +3.5
OU: Under 47.5
Cleveland Browns at New England Patriots
Prediction: Patriots 29-20
Pick: Browns +10.5
OU: Over 47.5
Detroit Lions at Philadelphia Eagles
Prediction: Eagles 28-27
Pick: Lions +2.5
OU: Over 54
Indianapolis Colts at Cincinnati Bengals
Prediction: Bengals 23-20
Pick: Colts +7
OU: Under 43.5
Kansas City Chiefs at Washington Redskins
Prediction: Chiefs 30-19
Pick: Chiefs -3.5
OU: Over 44
Miami Dolphins at Pittsburgh Steelers
Prediction: Dolphins 21-19
Pick: Dolphins +3.5
OU: Over 40.5
Minnesota Vikings at Baltimore Ravens
Prediction: Ravens 24-20
Pick: Vikings +6.5
OU: Over 42
New York Giants at San Diego Chargers
Prediction: Chargers 24-20
Pick: Chargers -4
OU: Under 47.5
Oakland Raiders at New York Jets
Prediction: Raiders 21-17
Pick: Raiders +3
OU: Over 39.5
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers
Prediction: Seahawks 20-17
Pick: Seahawks +2.5
OU: Under 41.5
St. Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals
Prediction: Cardinals 24-23
Pick: Rams +5
OU: Over 41.5
Tennessee Titans at Denver Broncos
Prediction: Broncos 33-24
Pick: Titans 13.5
OU: Over 50
December 8, 2013
Dallas Cowboys at Chicago Bears
Prediction: Cowboys 28-26
Pick: Cowboys -1.5
OU: Over 48
Week 13 NFL Playoff Probabilities
So some interesting things going on here.
Our numbers put Carolina just ahead of the Saints, even though they’re tied. They have both of their games against one another left. I think, since the other two teams on their respective schedules are bad teams, just different bad teams (Jets and Falcons for the Panthers, Rams and Bucs for the Saints), the difference is attributable to the fact that the Saints have the short week coming off their Monday loss to the Seahawks (not to mention some mechanical issues keeping them in Seattle). It’s a small difference, and not particularly meaningful, since they’re both playoff-bound. Sunday will go some way in figuring out gets which playoff spot.
Looks like the NFC North wrapped itself up with the Lions’ big win over the Packers on Thanksgiving coupled with the Bears losing performance against Minnesota. The Niners might have righted their ship, so they’re in good shape as the current 6th seed, while the Cardinals’ brief flirtation with relevance is once again tucked away, as it won’t be needed again util 2014, thank you Philly. Speaking of, the Cowboys and the Eagles kept pace, so week 17 Philly at Dallas could be a pretty big deal, as it is probable the loser of the NFC East will be sitting right at home.
Over in the AFC, the Dolphins and Ravens apparently decided they want to play football instead of whatever crap the majority of the AFC has been doing all year. The Titans, Chargers, and Steelers all really plummeted. And the Jets… well they’ve always been terrible, but now I think we can officially call them thusly.
The AFC Wild Card #2 all comes down to a footrace between Baltimore and Miami. They both play New England, and as I’ve said before, Bill Belichick is shameless when it comes to meaningless games (fun game, google “Belichick running up score” and count how many articles come up referring to the same game. I stopped at the first page, but literally none of the articles refer to the same incident.) Anyway, the Ravens play the crummy Vikings, plus first place Lions, the first place Bengals. The Dolphins, on the other hand, play the essentially finished Steelers (though they have a shot and doubtlessly will not forfeit the game, you can take that prediction to Vegas), plus the last place Bills and the blight-upon-humanity known as the Jets. So I’d say the schedule favors the Dolphins by a good amount.
My quick thoughts on the 4th down bot
If there was any doubt that so-called nerds are starting to take over the sports world, look no further than the New York Times 4th-down bot, a collaboration with Brian Burke of http://www.advancednflstats.com, which features minute-by-minute analysis of NFL coaches’ fourth-down decisions.
At each fourth-down in an NFL game, the Bot will spit out which choice – punting, kicking a field goal, or going for it – is optimal, based on either maximizing that team’s expected point total or its chances of winning the game. It’s a pretty neat website, and I took a few days to explore the Bot before coming up with the following thoughts.
What I like
- For starters, its a great idea, and the website setup is outstanding and easy to navigate.
- I like how when you click on each decision, the Bot explains win probabilities, or expected points, in relatively straight-forward fashion. For example…
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Stevan Ridley, the NFL, and fumbling rates
The Harvard Sports Group posted an interesting tweet this evening
This brings up an few points with respect to fumble risk and fumble luck among NFL ball- carriers. The overall numbers indicate that the Patriots running back of choice against the Texans, Blount, actually may have a higher likelihood of fumbling that Ridley. Of course, the inherent problem in using their career numbers is that they may not accurately indicate which back is more likely to fumble going forward. Specifically, Ridley has three fumbles in his last three games.
How do Blount and…
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Arizona State: A thought
Only 3 teams in the Sagarin ratings have 4 or more wins against top 30 teams this year: Stanford (5), Arizona State (5) and Notre Dame (4).
Arizona State has 2 losses this year: Stanford and Notre Dame.
Just sayin’.
Cheers.
NCAA Football Top 25 Rankings – 12/1/2013
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Cheers.
Week 12 NFL Playoff Probabilities
Another week and we are really no closer to settling this sixth AFC spot. The fins took a big step towards it, but we still have those Titans (who if you’ll recall, I said was the team with the easiest path… way to take advantage of that, fellas) hanging around, and, despite being a blight upon humanity, the Jets are still in the hunt. I can editorialize very easily, thanks. The titans actually have the sixth seed on tie breakers, and the Jets and Dolphins are actually at the bottom of the mass of 5-6 crapitude. But the Stats in the Wild formula gives the Dolphins the best chance. I think it helps that the Jets and Dolphins face off twice, that SHOULD (and this is not a promise) clarify things slightly. Now watch them split.
Over in the NFC, the Cards continue their slow creep, and the niners, once in a very very strong position, now in a weaker position (I’m a regular Wordsworth.) The Lions are currently in the drivers seat; thanks to two wins over the Bears and a win over the Cowboys they are actually the current three seed, despite a 6-5 record. Enjoy no advantage Carolina, despite your third-best record in the NFC. But, geez, is that NFC North a mess. Any of those three teams can take it, and they must think they’re vying for an AFC Wild Card, since no one seems to want it very much.
I’d write more, but it’s Thanksgiving Eve, and in a half day, this is mostly irrelevant when the Packers play the Lions. Someone has to win. But then they can lose the following week and I type the same stuff again.
Happy Thanksgiving.
Stats in the Wild 