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Cheers.

Another week and we are really no closer to settling this sixth AFC spot. The fins took a big step towards it, but we still have those Titans (who if you’ll recall, I said was the team with the easiest path… way to take advantage of that, fellas) hanging around, and, despite being a blight upon humanity, the Jets are still in the hunt. I can editorialize very easily, thanks. The titans actually have the sixth seed on tie breakers, and the Jets and Dolphins are actually at the bottom of the mass of 5-6 crapitude. But the Stats in the Wild formula gives the Dolphins the best chance. I think it helps that the Jets and Dolphins face off twice, that SHOULD (and this is not a promise) clarify things slightly. Now watch them split.

Over in the NFC, the Cards continue their slow creep, and the niners, once in a very very strong position, now in a weaker position (I’m a regular Wordsworth.) The Lions are currently in the drivers seat; thanks to two wins over the Bears and a win over the Cowboys they are actually the current three seed, despite a 6-5 record. Enjoy no advantage Carolina, despite your third-best record in the NFC.  But, geez, is that NFC North a mess. Any of those three teams can take it, and they must think they’re vying for an AFC Wild Card, since no one seems to want it very much.

I’d write more, but it’s Thanksgiving Eve, and in a half day, this is mostly irrelevant when the Packers play the Lions. Someone has to win. But then they can lose the following week and I type the same stuff again.

Happy Thanksgiving. 

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summary(cars)

##      speed           dist    
##  Min.   : 4.0   Min.   :  2  
##  1st Qu.:12.0   1st Qu.: 26  
##  Median :15.0   Median : 36  
##  Mean   :15.4   Mean   : 43  
##  3rd Qu.:19.0   3rd Qu.: 56  
##  Max.   :25.0   Max.   :120

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plot(cars)

Each pair of quadrilaterals represents one hand of the punto banco version of Baccarat. The length, width, and color of each shape is determined by the value of each of the two hands. Larger numbers appear closer to red/orange while lower colors appear more blue. The transparency of each losing hand is controlled by the difference in the values of the two competing hands. Baccarat hands were simulated using the statistical programming language R resulting in this beautiful representation of the classic high-roller casino game.

More aRt

Cheers.

Updated: November 21, 2013

Pro: The rankings are based on how a team performs and accounts for how many points they would be expected to score based on their statistical output such as rushing yards, passing yards, etc.  This ranking considers past seasons statistics with heavier weights placed on games that are more recent.  This ranking is the more predictive of the two.

Retro: This ranking only considers strength of schedule and the actual outcome of games in 2013.  This is a ranking of who actually has had the best season.

SOS: Is strength of schedule.

Week 11

So, big moves in the NFC- Carolina’s win was huge, as they’re in the driver’s seat now. The NFC East and North are where the races are in the Senior Circuit (that’s a thing in football, right?)

In the NFC North, the Lions and Packers took a page right out of the AFC second WC spot chasers by losing to terrible teams (the Steelers and Giants respectively.)  The Lions still have the easiest schedule of the Bears/Packers/Lions group, as they only play two more wining teams (Packers and Eagles), whereas the Packers have the Lions, Cowboys and Bears and the Bears have the Cowboys, Eagles and Packers. Of course, this analysis requires the you to ignore the fact that the Eagles and Cowboys are the Eagles and Cowboys.

The Niners seem to have decided to suck, as they have a less than .5 probability now as do the Cowboys. The Niners have a rougher road ahead, since they won’t win their division whereas the Cowboys can still win (ed.- The Niners are still the current 5 seed in the NFC playoff race but because of the division race being out of reach, the Cowboys have a slightly rosier outlook according to the formula we use.) But that means those team need to stop being losers. Good luck, guys!

Over in the race to be the crappiest team in the playoffs, aka the second AFC Wild Card team, the Dolphins decided they’d win, while literally every other team that has any kind of shot at taking the spot losing. So… um… I can’t wait to see which team gets to lose to either the Chiefs or Broncos the three seed (right now the Pats- h/t crcalpha) in round one.

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