Category: Uncategorized
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Over the past year, I’ve been involved in a project with Ben Baumer (buy his book!) and Shane Jensen in developing an open source, completely transparent version of the (rather opaque) baseball statistic Wins Above Replacement that we’re calling openWAR. We presented our preliminary results this past summer in a talk at JSM and this…
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This is a guest post written by Ted. Curt Schilling has always been a very polarizing figure to the fans and media that follow Major League Baseball. Outspoken and controversial, Schilling has never shied away from making his political, social, and baseball opinions public knowledge. In addition, the recent catastrophic failure of his video…
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(this was written before the games but apparently there was an upload error… sorry about) So those Lions eh? Basically, we have most of our playoffs clear, and we have a bunch teams that are leaning on a lot of other things to happen, so I made a graph of the teams on the bubble,…
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Originally posted on Important Shock: Everyone’s up in arms to embrace distributed version control as the new must-have tool for the developer in the know. Though many people have not yet migrated from Subversion, those that have almost invariably extoll the virtues of their particular choice. But though all of the major DVCS’s have features…
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Last Friday, the blog Vegas Watch posted a piece calling out Football Outsiders for some seemingly outrageous basic math mistakes. Apparently, Aaron Schatz did not like the post. Schatz’s response annoyed me. The entire FO brand is all about smart statistical analysis. So when you make so many outrageous basic statistical mistakes in one of your articles…
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Pro: The rankings are based on how a team performs and accounts for how many points they would be expected to score based on their statistical output such as rushing yards, passing yards, etc. This ranking considers past seasons statistics with heavier weights placed on games that are more recent. This ranking is the more…
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It’s another delightful week of playoff probabilities. With the end of the season just two short weeks away, things are clearing up pretty nicely. Or maybe not at all… The Lions took a real nice nosedive over the last few weeks, and they can kiss the playoff goodbye. Additionally, the Packer’s tie against the Vikings,…
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Pro: The rankings are based on how a team performs and accounts for how many points they would be expected to score based on their statistical output such as rushing yards, passing yards, etc. This ranking considers past seasons statistics with heavier weights placed on games that are more recent. This ranking is the more…
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This post is a little late in coming, thanks to a few real life things that popped up, but here we are. Thursday nights Chargers-Broncos game was inconsequential. As for last week and the playoff probabilities, we have the formula we use solidifying the AFC and it actually contrasts the official picture (we are not…
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Overall Records SU: 115-76-1 ATS: 84-101-7 (-24.64 units) O/U: 99-87-6 (+3 units) Week 1 (10-6 SU, 5-10-1 ATS, 7-9 O/U) Week 2 (11-5 SU, 5-10-1 ATS, 9-7 O/U) Week 3 (7-9 SU, 5-9-2 ATS, 6-10 O/U) Week 4 (8-7 SU, 6-8-1 ATS, 7-8 O/U) Week 5 (8-6 SU, 4-10 ATS, 9-5 O/U) Week 6 (11-4 SU,…
