Updated 1-1-13 at 12:34pm

Rank Teams Record Strength 1 DUKE 12-0 82.24 2 MICHIGAN 13-0 82.21 3 KANSAS 11-1 81.25 4 INDIANA 13-1 80.78 5 ARIZONA 12-0 80.42 6 LOUISVILLE 12-1 80.06 7 MINNESOTA 13-1 79.82 8 CINCINNATI 13-1 79.04 9 ILLINOIS 13-1 78.95 10 SYRACUSE 12-1 78.84 11 NOTRE DAME 12-1 77.55 12 CREIGHTON 12-1 77.3 13 OKLAHOMA STATE 10-2 77.27 14 PITTSBURGH 12-2 76.93 15 FLORIDA 9-2 76.8 16 GONZAGA 13-1 76.77 17 MIAMI-FLORIDA 8-3 76.56 18 GEORGETOWN 10-1 76.55 19 OHIO STATE 10-2 76.5 20 NC STATE 11-2 76.34 21 NEW MEXICO 13-2 75.76 22 WYOMING 12-0 75.61 23 CONNECTICUT 10-2 75.36 24 UCLA 10-3 75.2 25 MICHIGAN STATE 11-3 74.87

Full Rankings

 

 

From Gelman’s Blog, “Two reviews of Nate Silver’s new book, from Kaiser Fung and Cathy O’Neil”:

My [O’Neil’s] complaint about Silver is naivete, and to a lesser extent, authority-worship. I’m not criticizing Silver for not understanding the financial system. . . . But at the very least he should know that he is not an authority and should not act like one. . . . Silver is selling a story we all want to hear, and a story we all want to be true. Unfortunately for us and for the world, it’s not.

Cheers.

 

Explanation of RIPPEN

Week 16

Team Player Team RIPPEN QB_Rating 1 Carson Palmer OAK 58.7 109.7 2 Aaron Rodgers GB 39.7 125.1 3 Matt Ryan ATL 35.6 142.6 4 Joe Flacco BAL 31.7 114.2 5 Drew Brees NO 29.2 114.2 6 Tony Romo DAL 24.6 123.8 7 Matthew Stafford DET 23.7 82.7 8 Nick Foles PHI 22.9 85.9 9 Philip Rivers SD 22.0 105.3 10 Russell Wilson SEA 22.0 115.3 11 Greg McElroy NYJ 21.8 65.5 12 Peyton Manning DEN 21.5 106.6 13 Robert Griffin III WAS 19.7 102.4 14 Matt Schaub HOU 14.3 72.1 15 Sam Bradford DET 13.7 81.7 16 Christian Ponder MIN 13.7 81.8 17 Colin Kaepernick SF 13.4 72.0 18 Brandon Weeden CLE 13.0 77.5 19 Chad Henne JAX 12.9 59.9 20 Andrew Luck IND 11.9 76.5 21 Tom Brady NE 11.7 73.9 22 Eli Manning NYG 11.5 78.0 23 Jay Cutler CHI 11.5 76.8 24 Andy Dalton CIN 11.5 58.8 25 Ryan Fitzpatrick BUF 11.3 75.9 26 Cam Newton CAR 11.1 75.4 27 Ben Roethlisberger PIT 11.1 58.6 28 Ryan Tannehill MIA 10.1 93.8 29 Brady Quinn KC 9.9 32.8 30 Josh Freeman TB 6.1 52.4 31 Ryan Lindley ARI 6.0 55.0 32 Jake Locker TEN 4.0 41.0

Year

Rank Player Team RIPPEN QB_Rating 1 Robert Griffin III WAS 24.2 104.1 2 Peyton Manning DEN 23.1 103.7 3 Aaron Rodgers GB 23.0 106.2 4 Matt Ryan ATL 22.5 100.2 5 Tom Brady NE 22.5 98.3 6 Greg McElroy NYJ 22.3 79.2 7 Alex Smith SF 22.1 104.1 8 Matt Schaub HOU 20.9 92.4 9 Tony Romo DAL 20.6 92.5 10 Cam Newton CAR 20.5 88.0 11 Drew Brees NO 19.0 94.9 12 Russell Wilson SEA 18.9 98.0 13 Colin Kaepernick SF 18.8 95.9 14 Ben Roethlisberger PIT 18.6 95.5 15 Joe Flacco BAL 18.0 88.1 16 Matthew Stafford DET 16.4 79.2 17 Eli Manning NYG 16.3 83.6 18 Sam Bradford STL 15.8 83.2 19 Ryan Tannehill MIA 15.2 76.9 20 Andrew Luck IND 15.1 75.6 21 Nick Foles PHI 14.9 79.1 22 Josh Freeman TB 14.4 82.3 23 Philip Rivers SD 14.2 86.8 24 Michael Vick PHI 13.9 79.2 25 Jay Cutler CHI 13.5 80.2 26 Jake Locker TEN 13.5 72.9 27 Ryan Fitzpatrick BUF 13.0 82.9 28 Brandon Weeden CLE 12.9 72.6 29 Andy Dalton CIN 12.8 87.0 30 Christian Ponder MIN 12.5 78.8 31 Carson Palmer OAK 11.1 85.3 32 Mark Sanchez NYJ 10.3 67.9 33 Matt Cassel KC 10.3 66.7 34 Chad Henne JAX 10.0 72.7 35 Blaine Gabbert JAX 9.9 77.4 36 Brady Quinn KC 9.3 60.8 37 Kevin Kolb ARI 9.2 86.1 38 Matt Hasselbeck TEN 7.3 81.0 39 Jason Campbell CHI 7.3 72.8 40 Charlie Batch PIT 6.7 64.9 41 John Skelton ARI 6.6 55.4 42 Byron Leftwich PIT 6.3 54.9 43 Ryan Lindley ARI 4.1 46.7

Overall Records for 2012

SU: 162-93-1

ATS: 139-116-1

O/U: 128-120-3

Week 17 (11-5 SU, 10-6 ATS, 5-11 O/U)

Week 16 (11-5 SU, 7-9 ATS, 5-9 O/U)

Week 15 (10-6 SU, 7-9 ATS, 11-4-1 O/U)

Week 14 (10-6 SU, 7-9 ATS, 5-11 O/U)

Week 13 (9-7 SU, 10-6 ATS, 8-8 O/U)

Week 12 (9-7 SU, 8-7-1 ATS, 10-6 O/U)

Week 11 (12-2 SU, 11-3 ATS, 5-8-1 O/U)

Week 10 (6-7-1 SU, 7-7 ATS, 8-6 O/U)

Week 9 (11-3 SU, 6-8 ATS, 6-7-1 O/U)

Week 8 (10-4 SU, 9-5 ATS, 9-4 O/U)

Week 7 (10-3 SU, 6-7 ATS, 6-7 O/U)

Week 6 (6-8 SU, 7-7 ATS, 6-7 O/U)

Week 5 (10-4 SU, 7-7 ATS, 7-7 O/U)

Week 4 (10-5 SU, 10-5 ATS, 12-2 O/U)

Week 3 (5-11 SU, 9-7 ATS, 9-7 O/U)

Week 2 (11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS, 8-8 O/U)

Week 1 (11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS, 8-8 O/U)

Week 17

Sunday @1pm

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions

Prediction: Lions win 27-23

Pick: Lions +3.5

O/U: Over 44.5

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills

Prediction: Bills win 25-21

Pick: Bills -3.5

O/U: Over 39.5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons

Prediction: Falcons win 27-23

Pick: Buccaneers +7.5

O/U: Over 45.5

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints

Prediction: Saints win 30-22

Pick: Saints -4.5

O/U: Under 54

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts

Prediction: Colts win 28-26

Pick: Colts +7

O/U: Over 47

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans

Prediction: Titans win 23-15

Pick: Titans -4

O/U: Under 42

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers

Prediction: Steelers win 22-19

Pick: Browns +6.5

O/U: Over 36.5

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals

Prediction: Ravens win 25-24

Pick: Ravens +3

O/U: Over 41

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants

Prediction: Giants win 27-24

Pick:  Eagles +7

O/U: Over 47

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers

Prediction: 49ers win 28-15

Pick: Cardinals +16.5

O/U: Over 39

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos

Prediction: Broncos win 29-18

Pick: Chiefs +16

O/U: Over 42

Sunday @4:25pm

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings

Prediction: Packers win 28-25

Pick: Packers -3

O/U: Over 46

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots

Prediction: Patriots win 35-18

Pick:  Patriots -10

O/U: Over 46

Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers

Prediction: Chargers win 25-21

Pick: Raiders +7.5

O/U: Over 39.5

St. Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks

Prediction: Seahawks win 27-19

Pick: Rams +10.5

O/U: Over 41

Sunday @8:30pm

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins

Prediction: Redskins win 28-23

Pick: Redskins -3

O/U:  Over 50

Cheers.

12/26/2012

Team	Rank	Change	Record	Projected Record	ESPN	TeamRankings.com	SOS	Prob Make Playoffs
New England	1	–	11-4	12-4	5	4	21	100%
Denver	2	↑1	12-3	13-3	1	1	30	100%
Seattle	3	↑4	10-5	11-5	6	2	5	100%
Atlanta	4	↑1	13-2	14-2	2	6	29	100%
San Francisco	5	↓3	10-4-1	11-4-1	3	5	4	100%
Green Bay	6	–	11-4	12-4	4	3	8	100%
Houston	7	↓4	12-3	13-3	7	9	23	100%
Chicago	8	↑1	9-6	10-6	13	10	7	28.63%
NY Giants	9	↓1	8-7	9-7	15	14	11	4.78%
Baltimore	10	–	10-5	11-5	10	12	24	100%
Minnesota	11	–	9-6	9-7	12	7	6	61.31%
Washington	12	–	9-6	10-6	9	8	16	59.05%
Cincinnati	13	↑1	9-6	9-7	11	13	32	100%
St. Louis	14	↑2	7-7-1	8-8	16	15	2	0%
Dallas	15	↓2	8-7	8-8	14	16	9	46.23%
New Orleans	16	↓1	7-8	8-8	17	11	12	0%
Carolina	17	↑3	6-9	6-10	20	17	13	0%
Indianapolis	18	↑1	10-5	10-6	8	18	27	100%
Pittsburgh	19	↓2	7-8	8-8	18	21	28	0%
Miami	20	↑1	7-8	7-9	19	19	18	0%
Tampa Bay	21	↓3	6-9	6-10	22	23	17	0%
Arizona	22	↑1	5-10	5-11	26	25	1	0%
NY Jets	23	↓1	6-9	7-9	23	24	14	0%
San Diego	24	↑1	6-9	7-9	21	20	31	0%
Detroit	25	↓1	4-11	4-12	28	27	3	0%
Buffalo	26	–	5-10	5-11	25	28	20	0%
Cleveland	27	–	5-10	5-11	24	22	25	0%
Tennessee	28	–	5-10	6-10	27	26	19	0%
Philadelphia	29	–	4-11	4-12	29	29	10	0%
Oakland	30	–	4-11	4-12	30	30	26	0%
Jacksonville	31	–	2-13	2-14	31	31	15	0%
Kansas City	32	–	2-13	2-14	32	32	22	0%

Biggest Movers

Up

4 Spots: Seattle

3 Spots: Carolina

2 Spots: St. Louis

Down

4 Spots: Houston

3 Spots: San Francisco, Tampa Bay

2 Spots: Dallas, Pittsburgh,

Playoff Predictions

AFC seeds (Projected Record)

1. Denver (13-3)
2. Houston(13-3)
3. New England (12-4)
4. Baltimore (11-5)
5. Indianapolis (10-6)
6. Cincinnati (9-7)

NFC seeds (Projected Record)

1. Atlanta (14-2)
2. San Francisco (11-4-1) 
   
3. Green Bay (12-4)
4. Washington (10-6)
5. Seattle (11-5)
6. Minnesota (9-7)

Playoff Games

Wild-Card Round

AFC: New England beats Cincinnati; Baltimore beats Indianapolis

NFC: Green Bay beats Minnesota; Seattle beats Washington

Divisional Round

AFC: Denver beats Baltimore; New England beats Houston

NFC: Seattle beats Atlanta; San Francisco beats Green Bay

Conference Championship

AFC: New England beats Denver

NFC: Seattle beats San Francisco

Super Bowl

New England beats Seattle

Cheers.

 

Rank Team Strength Record 1 MICHIGAN 81.05 12-0 2 DUKE 80.79 11-0 3 KANSAS 80.24 10-1 4 ARIZONA 79.83 12-0 5 LOUISVILLE 79.59 11-1 6 INDIANA 78.96 11-1 7 PITTSBURGH 78.27 12-1 8 CINCINNATI 78.19 12-0 9 SYRACUSE 77.95 10-1 10 MINNESOTA 77.71 12-1 11 ILLINOIS 77.6 12-1 12 NOTRE DAME 77.32 12-1 13 OKLAHOMA STATE 76.84 10-1 14 GEORGETOWN 76.51 10-1 15 UNLV 76.2 11-1 16 CREIGHTON 76.03 11-1 17 WYOMING 75.87 12-0 18 MICHIGAN STATE 75.65 11-2 19 MIAMI-FLORIDA 75.55 8-3 20 NEW MEXICO 75.39 12-1 21 OHIO STATE 75.27 9-2 22 SAN DIEGO ST 75.24 11-2 23 FLORIDA 74.56 8-2 24 NC STATE 74.34 9-2 25 BAYLOR 74.26 8-3

Full Rankings

Cheers.

Overall Records for 2012

SU: 151-88-1

ATS: 129-110-1

O/U: 123-109-3

Week 16 (11-5 SU, 7-9 ATS, 5-9 O/U)

Week 15 (10-6 SU, 7-9 ATS, 11-4-1 O/U)

Week 14 (10-6 SU, 7-9 ATS, 5-11 O/U)

Week 13 (9-7 SU, 10-6 ATS, 8-8 O/U)

Week 12 (9-7 SU, 8-7-1 ATS, 10-6 O/U)

Week 11 (12-2 SU, 11-3 ATS, 5-8-1 O/U)

Week 10 (6-7-1 SU, 7-7 ATS, 8-6 O/U)

Week 9 (11-3 SU, 6-8 ATS, 6-7-1 O/U)

Week 8 (10-4 SU, 9-5 ATS, 9-4 O/U)

Week 7 (10-3 SU, 6-7 ATS, 6-7 O/U)

Week 6 (6-8 SU, 7-7 ATS, 6-7 O/U)

Week 5 (10-4 SU, 7-7 ATS, 7-7 O/U)

Week 4 (10-5 SU, 10-5 ATS, 12-2 O/U)

Week 3 (5-11 SU, 9-7 ATS, 9-7 O/U)

Week 2 (11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS, 8-8 O/U)

Week 1 (11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS, 8-8 O/U)

Week 16

Thursday @8:30pm

Atlanta Falcons at Detroit Lions

Prediction: Falcons win 27-26

Pick: Lions +4

O/U: Over 51

Sunday @1pm

Minnesota Vikings at Houston Texans

Prediction: Texans win 27-25

Pick: Vikings +9

O/U: Over 44

New England Patriots at Jacksonville Jaguars

Prediction: Patriots win 35-14

Pick: Patriots -14

O/U: Over 49

St. Louis Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Prediction: Buccaneers win 26-19

Pick: Buccaneers -3

O/U: Over 43.5

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers

Prediction: Steelers win 24-23

Pick: Bengals +4

O/U: Over 43

San Diego Chargers at New York Jets

Prediction: Chargers win 23-22

Pick: Chargers +1.5

O/U: Over 40.5

Tennessee Titans at Green Bay Packers

Prediction: Packers win 28-20

Pick: Titans +13

O/U: Over 46

Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles

Prediction: Redskins win 27-24

Pick: Eagles +5.5

O/U:

Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs

Prediction: Colts win 26-18

Pick: Colts -6.5

O/U:

Oakland Raiders at Carolina Panthers

Prediction: Panthers win 25-21

Pick:  Raiders +8.5

O/U: Over 46

Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins

Prediction: Bills win 23-22

Pick: Bills +4.5

O/U: Over 42

New Orleans Saints at Dallas Cowboys

Prediction: Saints win 28-23

Pick: Saints +3

O/U: Under 51.5

Sunday @4:05pm

Cleveland Browns at Denver Broncos

Prediction: Broncos win 27-20

Pick: Browns +13

O/U: Over 44.5

Sunday @4:25pm

Chicago Bears at Arizona Cardinals

Prediction: Bears win 22-17

Pick:  Bears -5

O/U: Over 36.5

New York Giants at Baltimore Ravens

Prediction: Ravens win 26-24

Pick: Ravens +2.5

O/U: Over 47.5

Sunday @8:30pm

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks

Prediction: 49ers win 27-26

Pick: 49ers EVEN

O/U: Over 39

Cheers.

12/20/2012

Team	Rank	Change	Record	Projected Record	ESPN	TeamRankings.com	SOS	Prob Make Playoffs
New England	1	–	10-4	12-4	4	3	20	100%
San Francisco	2	–	10-3-1	11-4-1	1	2	4	100%
Houston	3	–	12-2	13-3	3	4	23	100%
Denver	4	–	11-3	13-3	2	1	30	100%
Atlanta	5	↑3	12-2	14-2	5	7	29	100%
Green Bay	6	↓1	10-4	11-5	6	5	7	100%
Seattle	7	–	9-5	10-6	7	6	5	73.17%
NY Giants	8	↓2	8-6	9-7	12	9	11	68.71%
Chicago	9	–	8-6	9-7	14	13	8	44.45%
Baltimore	10	–	9-5	10-6	11	17	22	100%
Minnesota	11	–	8-6	9-7	15	10	6	13.15%
Washington	12	–	8-6	9-7	8	8	17	59.22%
Dallas	13	↑1	8-6	9-7	10	11	10	47.37%
Cincinnati	14	↑1	8-6	9-7	13	14	32	73.39%
New Orleans	15	↑6	6-8	7-9	18	15	13	<0.01%
St. Louis	16	↓3	6-7-1	6-9-1	17	16	2	0.04%
Pittsburgh	17	↑1	7-7	8-8	16	21	28	27.94%
Tampa Bay	18	↓2	6-8	7-9	20	22	21	0%
Indianapolis	19	↓2	9-5	10-6	9	12	26	97.68%
Carolina	20	↑5	5-9	6-10	23	18	15	0%
Miami	21	↑1	6-8	7-9	19	19	16	0.98%
NY Jets	22	↓3	6-8	7-9	21	20	12	0%
Arizona	23	↑4	5-9	6-10	27	25	1	0%
Detroit	24	↓4	4-10	5-11	28	27	3	0%
San Diego	25	↓1	5-9	6-10	24	28	31	0%
Buffalo	26	↓3	5-9	6-10	25	26	18	0%
Cleveland	27	↓1	5-9	6-10	22	23	25	0%
Tennessee	28	–	5-9	6-10	26	24	19	0%
Philadelphia	29	–	4-10	4-12	29	29	9	0%
Oakland	30	↑1	4-10	5-11	30	30	27	0%
Jacksonville	31	↓1	2-12	2-14	31	31	14	0%
Kansas City	32	–	2-12	2-14	32	32	24	0%

Explanation of RIPPEN

Week 15

Rank Player Team RIPPEN QB_Rating 1 Matt Ryan ATL 43.4 142.6 2 Tony Romo DAL 39.3 111.3 3 Matt Schaub HOU 34.6 109.7 4 Drew Brees NO 31.3 124.6 5 Ryan Tannehill MIA 30.9 123.2 6 Aaron Rodgers GB 27.5 116.8 7 Ben Roethlisberger PIT 25.4 93.6 8 Cam Newton CAR 23.2 99.4 9 Jake Locker TEN 22.4 79.5 10 Peyton Manning DEN 21.9 94.9 11 Sam Bradford STL 21.7 94.3 12 Colin Kaepernick SF 18.3 107.7 13 Andrew Luck IND 17.7 95.6 14 Tom Brady NE 16.4 68.9 15 Russell Wilson SEA 16.1 104.4 16 Philip Rivers SD 15.8 96.5 17 Chad Henne JAX 15.6 73.3 18 Carson Palmer OAK 15.5 80.0 19 Jay Cutler CHI 13.0 72.5 20 Brandon Weeden CLE 12.7 66.8 21 Joe Flacco BAL 11.7 76.5 22 Ryan Fitzpatrick BUF 9.8 58.8 23 Eli Manning NYG 9.2 38.9 24 Christian Ponder MIN 9.1 83.9 25 Nick Foles PHI 6.5 62.7 26 Ryan Lindley ARI 5.9 58.4 27 Matthew Stafford DET 5.0 37.6 28 Andy Dalton CIN 4.0 74.2 29 Brady Quinn KC 4.0 53.6 30 Josh Freeman TB 2.7 37.5 31 Mark Sanchez NYJ 2.1 32.6

Season

Rank Player Team RIPPEN QB_Rating 1 Robert Griffin III WAS 24.4 104.2 2 Peyton Manning DEN 23.1 103.5 3 Tom Brady NE 22.6 100.1 4 Aaron Rodgers GB 22.4 104.7 5 Matt Ryan ATL 22.3 97.5 6 Alex Smith SF 21.8 104.1 7 Matt Schaub HOU 20.9 93.8 8 Colin Kaepernick SF 20.8 101.3 9 Cam Newton CAR 20.6 88.9 10 Tony Romo DAL 20.2 90.2 11 Ben Roethlisberger PIT 19.8 98.1 12 Russell Wilson SEA 19.0 95.5 13 Drew Brees NO 18.1 93.1 14 Joe Flacco BAL 17.7 86.2 15 Eli Manning NYG 16.2 84.0 16 Sam Bradford STL 16.0 83.3 17 Matthew Stafford DET 15.9 78.9 18 Ryan Tannehill MIA 15.9 75.9 19 Andrew Luck IND 15.3 75.5 20 Jake Locker TEN 15.0 76.5 21 Josh Freeman TB 14.9 85.7 22 Michael Vick PHI 13.9 79.2 23 Philip Rivers SD 13.8 86.0 24 Jay Cutler CHI 13.5 80.4 25 Andy Dalton CIN 13.1 89.4 26 Ryan Fitzpatrick BUF 12.7 83.5 27 Nick Foles PHI 12.7 77.6 28 Brandon Weeden CLE 12.6 72.4 29 Christian Ponder MIN 11.9 78.6 30 Matt Cassel KC 10.8 66.7 31 Carson Palmer OAK 10.5 85.0 32 Mark Sanchez NYJ 10.4 67.9 33 Blaine Gabbert JAX 9.9 77.4 34 Brady Quinn KC 9.4 64.7 35 Kevin Kolb ARI 9.2 86.1 36 Chad Henne JAX 9.1 75.7 37 Jason Campbell CHI 7.4 72.8 38 Matt Hasselbeck TEN 7.4 81.0 39 Charlie Batch PIT 6.4 64.9 40 John Skelton ARI 6.4 55.4 41 Byron Leftwich PIT 6.2 54.9 42 Ryan Lindley ARI 3.7 45.0