NCAA Basketball Top 25 – 1/4/2015
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NFL Picks – Week 18 (Wildcard Round)
Total (weeks 1-17) – SU: 170-85-1 ATS: 126-124-6 O/U: 135-118-3
Week 1 – SU: 9-7-0 ATS: 8-8-0 O/U: 13-3-0
Week 2 – SU: 10-6-0 ATS: 10-6-0 O/U: 10-6-0
Week 3 – SU: 12-4-0 ATS: 9-6-1 O/U: 8-8-0
Week 4 – SU: 7-6-0 ATS: 5-7-1 O/U: 5-8-0
Week 5 – SU: 14-2-0 ATS: 6-9-0 O/U: 9-6-0
Week 6 – SU: 11-3-1 ATS: 8-7-0 O/U: 6-9-1
Week 7 – SU: 11-4-0 ATS: 7-8-0 O/U: 8-7-0
Week 8 – SU: 11-3-0 ATS: 8-7-0 O/U: 8-7-0
Week 9 – SU: 9-4-0 ATS: 8-5-0 O/U: 4-8-1
Week 10 – SU: 9-4-0 ATS: 4-9-0 O/U: 6-7-0
Week 11 – SU: 9-5-0 ATS: 8-6-0 O/U: 7-7-0
Week 12 – SU: 10-5-0 ATS: 7-8-0 O/U: 8-7-0
Week 13 – SU: 11-5-0 ATS: 8-8-0 O/U: 7-9-0
Week 14 – SU: 7-9-0 ATS: 9-6-1 O/U: 11-5-0
Week 15 – SU: 11-5-0 ATS: 6-8-2 O/U: 10-6-0
Week 16 – SU: 8-8-0 ATS: 10-6-0 O/U: 9-7-0
Week 17 – SU: 12-4-0 ATS: 5-10-1 O/U: 6-9-1
Week 18 – SU: 3-1-0 ATS: 2-2-0 O/U: 3-1-0
Arizona at Carolina
Prediction: Panthers 23-19
Pick: Cardinals +6.5
Total: Over 38
Detroit at Dallas
Prediction: Cowboys 24-23
Pick: Lions +7
Total: Under 50
Cincinnati at Indianapolis
Prediction: Colts 24-22
Pick: Bengals +3.5
Total: Under 50
Baltimore at Pittsburgh
Prediction: Steelers 23-21
Pick: Ravens +3.5
Total: Under 46.5
Stat pundit rankings: 2014 NFL win over/unders
TeamRankings really crushed it this year. Also, my mean absolute error was 2.25 and mean squared error was 7.05.
Cheers!
We are back for another edition of the stat pundit rankings, where we rank the accuracy of different predictions for team wins from statistics or simulation based websites. Team Rankings boasted the best performance last year, outperforming competitors and the totals set by sportsbooks as far as predicting 2013 regular season win totals.
Let’s meet our competitors for 2014:
Team Rankings (TR), predictions listed here
Accuscore (AS), predictions emailed by a loyal reader
FiveThirtyEight (538), predictions extracted the week before the regular season began (missing link)
Prediction Machine (PM), predictions listed here, released just after the season began
Football Outsiders (FO), projections listed here from just before the season began
Aggregate, the average statheads predictions from the five sites above
Finally, we will want to compare all the projections to lines set by sportsbooks. To do so, I used the implied lines used by Seth Burn in his…
View original post 755 more words
2014 blog in review
The WordPress.com stats helper monkeys prepared a 2014 annual report for this blog.
Here’s an excerpt:
The concert hall at the Sydney Opera House holds 2,700 people. This blog was viewed about 24,000 times in 2014. If it were a concert at Sydney Opera House, it would take about 9 sold-out performances for that many people to see it.
Click here to see the complete report.
Cheers!
NFL record projections – How did I do?
Projected Records
Team – (Projected Median wins) expected wins [Actual Wins] actualWins-predWins
AFC East
New England – (13-3) 13.044 [12-4] -1
Miami – (6-10) 6.344 [8-8] +2
Buffalo – (6-10) 5.905 [9-7] +3
NY Jets (5-11) 5.329 [4-12] -1
AFC North
Baltimore (9-7) 9.192 [10-6] +1
Pittsburgh – (9-7) 9.129 [11-5] +2
Cincinnati – (9-7) 9.041 [10-5-1] +1.5
Cleveland – (5-11) 5.328 [7-9] +2
AFC South
Houston (11-5) 10.679 [9-7] -2
Indianapolis – (7-9) 7.114 [11-5] +4
Tennessee (7-9) 6.623 [2-14] -5
Jacksonville (2-14) 2.234 [3-13] +1
AFC West
Denver – (13-3) 12.636 [12-4] -1
San Diego – (8-8) 8.334 [9-7] +1
Kansas City – (7-9) 7.369 [9-7] +2
Oakland – (4-12) 4.213 [3-13] -1
NFC East
Philadelphia (10-6) 9.579 [10-6] 0
Dallas (8-8) 8.256 [12-4] +4
NY Giants (8-8) 7.801 [6-10] -2
Washington (8-8) 7.75 [4-12] -4
NFC North
Green Bay (11-5) 10.659 [12-4] +1
Detroit (9-7) 9.095 [11-5] +2
Chicago (9-7) 8.505 [5-11] -4
Minnesota (5-11) 5.352 [7-9] +2
NFC South
New Orleans (11-5) 10.990 [7-9] -4
Carolina (9-7) 8.909 [7-8-1] -1.5
Atlanta (8-8) 8.227 [6-10] -2
Tampa Bay (5-11) 5.227 [2-14] -3
NFC West
San Francisco (12-4) 11.594 [8-8] -4
Seattle (11-5) 11.449 [12-4] +1
Arizona (5-11) 5.312 [11-5] +6
St. Louis (5-11) 4.781 [6-10] +1
Pre-season playoff picks – How did I do?
I went back to my 2014 NFL season preview to check out my playoff predictions. I did very well in the AFC getting 5 out of the 6 playoff teams correct (I missed the Colts). Along with this, I got the 1 and 2 seeds exactly correct. In the NFC, I only got 3 out of the 6 playoff teams (Green Bay, Seattle, and Detroit). I had picked San Francisco, New Orleans, and Philadelphia to make the playoffs, but they all missed. Further, I had picked San Francisco and New Orleans to be my top 2 seeds. In the NFC, the only seed I correctly identified was the Lions at the 6 seed.
So overall, I got 8 out of the 12 playoff teams correct. Not bad. imho.
Below are my playoff predictions along with the actual results in parenthesis.
Predictions:
AFC
1. New England (1 seed)
2. Denver (2 seed)
3. Houston (Missed Playoffs)
4. Baltimore (6 seed)
5. Pittsburgh (3 seed)
6. Cincinnati (5 seed)
NFC
1. San Francisco (Missed Playoffs)
2. New Orleans (Missed Playoffs)
3. Green Bay (2 seed)
4. Philadelphia (Missed Playoffs)
5. Seattle (1 seed)
6. Detroit (6 seed)
Cheers!
NFL Picks – Week 17
Total (weeks 1-17) – SU: 170-85-1 ATS: 126-124-6 O/U: 135-118-3
Week 1 – SU: 9-7-0 ATS: 8-8-0 O/U: 13-3-0
Week 2 – SU: 10-6-0 ATS: 10-6-0 O/U: 10-6-0
Week 3 – SU: 12-4-0 ATS: 9-6-1 O/U: 8-8-0
Week 4 – SU: 7-6-0 ATS: 5-7-1 O/U: 5-8-0
Week 5 – SU: 14-2-0 ATS: 6-9-0 O/U: 9-6-0
Week 6 – SU: 11-3-1 ATS: 8-7-0 O/U: 6-9-1
Week 7 – SU: 11-4-0 ATS: 7-8-0 O/U: 8-7-0
Week 8 – SU: 11-3-0 ATS: 8-7-0 O/U: 8-7-0
Week 9 – SU: 9-4-0 ATS: 8-5-0 O/U: 4-8-1
Week 10 – SU: 9-4-0 ATS: 4-9-0 O/U: 6-7-0
Week 11 – SU: 9-5-0 ATS: 8-6-0 O/U: 7-7-0
Week 12 – SU: 10-5-0 ATS: 7-8-0 O/U: 8-7-0
Week 13 – SU: 11-5-0 ATS: 8-8-0 O/U: 7-9-0
Week 14 – SU: 7-9-0 ATS: 9-6-1 O/U: 11-5-0
Week 15 – SU: 11-5-0 ATS: 6-8-2 O/U: 10-6-0
Week 16 – SU: 8-8-0 ATS: 10-6-0 O/U: 9-7-0
Week 16 – SU: 12-4-0 ATS: 5-10-1 O/U: 6-9-1
Carolina at Atlanta
Prediction: Falcons 24-22 (54.5%)
Pick: Panthers +4
Total: Under 47.5
Cleveland at Baltimore
Prediction: Ravens 24-18 (65.5%)
Pick: Browns +10 PUSH
Total: Under 42.5
Oakland at Denver
Prediction: Broncos 30-17 (81.4%)
Pick: Raiders +14
Total: Under 48.5
Detroit at Green Bay
Prediction: Packers 26-22 (62.4%)
Pick: Lions +7.5
Total: Over 47.5
Jacksonville at Houston
Prediction: Texans 25-16 (73.8%)
Pick: Jacksonville +9.5
Total: Over 40.5
San Diego at Kansas City
Prediction: Chiefs 23-21 (56.5%)
Pick: Chargers +3
Total: Over 42.5
NY Jets at Miami
Prediction: Dolphins 22-18 (61.9%)
Pick: Jets +6
Total: Under 41.5
Chicago at Minnesota
Prediction: Vikings 22-21 (52.2%)
Pick: Bears +6.5
Total: Under 44
Buffalo at New England
Prediction: Patriots 28-21 (69.9%)
Pick: Patriots -5.5
Total: Over 44.5
Philadelphia at NY Giants
Prediction: Eagles 24-23 (50.8%)
Pick: Eagles +3
Total: Under 52
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh
Prediction: Steelers 23-21 (55.3%)
Pick: Bengals +3.5
Total: Under 48.5
Arizona at San Francisco
Prediction: 49ers 24-17 (67.6%)
Pick: 49ers -6
Total: Over 37 PUSH
St. Louis at Seattle
Prediction: Seahawks 25-15 (74.9%)
Pick:Rams +12.5
Total: Under 41
New Orleans at Tampa Bay
Prediction: Saints 26-21 (61.6%)
Pick: Saints -4
Total: Over 46.5
Indianapolis at Tennessee
Prediction: Colts 24-22 (55.9%)
Pick: Titans +7
Total: Under 46.5
Dallas at Washington
Prediction: Washington Football Team 24-23 (51.0%)
Pick: Washington Football Team +6.5
Total: Under 50
A false choice #allLivesMatter
This has nothing to do with statistics, but I’ve been reading so much about it lately I wanted to post something.
One thing that I have found odd in the Michael Brown/Eric Garner protests is that it seems many people seem to think that you’re either for the police or against them. But it’s a choice that doesn’t need to be made. I’d write more, but what I mean is said better in this article: The Importance of Treating NYPD Officers as Individuals. And the quote below from that article sums up how I feel:
That intense anger over such videos coincides with persistent rarity of politically motivated attacks on cops underscores Radley Balko’s observation that “it’s possible to both be appalled by senseless executions of cops and angry at unjustified killings by cops.” Those positions are not in tension with one another. They are both consistent the with individualist premise that all lives are valuable, as well as the belief that both police and non-police should act lawfully and justly.
#allLivesMatter
Cheers!
Season long bets – How am I doing?
Total +5.59 Units
Win totals (+3.91 units)
Buccaneers – Under 7 (+125)
Rams – Under 7.5 (+135)
Patriots – Over 10.5 (-130)
Chiefs – Under 8.5 (-150)
Jets – Under 7 (+130)
Jaguars – Under 4.5 (+150)
Colts – Under 9.5 (+100)
Texans – Over 7.5 (-145)
Broncos – Over 11.5 (+105)
Browns – Under 6.5 (+120)
Cardinals – Under 7.5 (+120)
Playoffs (+1.26 units)
49ers – Yes (-300)
Texans – Yes (+280)
Chargers – Yes (+300)
Broncos – Yes (-475)
Panthers – Yes (+235)
Ravens – Yes (+220)
Bengals – Yes (+150)
Colts – No (+145)
Saints – Yes (-140)
Win Division (+.42 unit)
Packers (-130)
Eagles (+130)
New England (-320)
Denver (-300)
What is the definition of privacy?
The Atlantic has an article posted on its site today entitled “By 2025, the Definition of ‘Privacy’ Will Have Changed“. This got me thinking again (and I’ve thought about it quite a bit) about just what is a reasonable definition of privacy? My two major conclusions to that question are that 1) it’s very complicated and 2) it depends.
A simple definition of privacy used in [1] attributed to Professor Weston of Columbia University is
the right “to determine what information about ourselves we will share with others.”
In terms of directly opting in or out of some data collection process, this is a straight forward definition. However, it’s not always this simple. For starters, I may want to share my data with organization X but I don’t want to share that same information with organization Y. So for starters, I would extend this definition to say something like: the right to determine what pieces of information about ourselves we are willing to share and with who.
Using this definition, someone now would have control over what data they are willing to share and what organizations they are willing to share it with. Ok easy right?
Well what about this scenario: You are in a class with three students. You all take a test, and after the test the professor hands back your exam with your grade and tells the class the average test score. If any two of the three students collude and share their test scores, they can immediately calculate the third students exact score. I would argue that this is clearly a violation of the third students privacy. They never willingly shared their exam score with the two other colluding students. But a piece of information about them was learned.
However, what about situations where the third students score is learned within some range. Clearly, if you know the students score is between 0 and 100, their privacy is not violated. But what if you learn that their score was between 80 and 85? above 50? or less than 70? Is learning any of these pieces of information a violation of privacy? I don’t know. Defining privacy is hard.
The other aspect of defining privacy that I find fascinating is that privacy is not tied directly to a piece of information. It’s often about HOW that information was obtained. For instance, if a friend tells me that they have cancer, that is not a violation of privacy. However, if the hospital without the consent of my friend, discloses that my friend has cancer, a clear violation of privacy has occurred. EVEN if I already knew that the friend had cancer. So it’s not the information itself that causes a privacy problem, it is a combination of the data AND the mode of transmission. (Another random question: Is it a privacy violation for a hospital to confirm that you do NOT have cancer? I would argue yes.)
My point here is that privacy is a very slippery concept and difficult to pin down an exact definition of. But studying and learning about privacy is going to be an increasingly valuable topic as data about ourselves is being collected on such a monumental scale that it would have been hard to imagine this even ten years ago. Try to imagine what this will be like in another 10 year? or 25 year? or 50 years?
Finally, I especially like (and am terrified by) this quote from the last paragraph of that article:
We are embarked, irreversibly, I suspect, upon a trajectory toward a world in which those spaces, times, and spheres of activity free from data collection and monitoring will, for all practical purposes, disappear.
Cheers!
Citations:
[1] Fellegi, I.P., 1972. On the question of statistical confidentiality. Journal of
the American Statistical Association 67 (337), 7–18.
Stats in the Wild 