Category Archives: Uncategorized

The Cleveland Indians’ playoff run just saved America from Donald Trump.

Oct 29

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Back on September 15, I told you that I had a model that has accurately predicted 16 out of the last 17 presidential elections.  (That’s only 1 miss since 1948!!!! And 1948 was a long time ago!!!)  Anyway, as you know that model was based on three simple tests:

1.  The Phillies win less than 92.

2. The Indians win less than 97 games.

3.  The Red Sox win at least 75 games.

If all of these are true then the Republican wins.  Well, The Phillies ended with 71 wins, Cleveland ended with 94 wins, and the Red Sox ended with 93 wins.  Check. Check. And Check.  Good bye America.  Hello Donald Trump.

But wait!!!! The Indians have won an additional 9 games in the playoffs bringing their season win total to 106 wins!!!  Hillary is going to win.  America has been saved by the Cleveland Indians!!

Cheers.

 

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NFL Picks – Week 7

Oct 23

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2015 Record
My record 2016:
Total (weeks 1-7) –SU: 66-40 ATS: 59-45-4 O/U: 48-55-3
Week 1 – SU: 12-4 ATS: 10-5-1 O/U: 5-10-1
Week 2 – SU: 9-7 ATS: 7-9 O/U: 9-6-1
Week 3 – SU: 8-8 ATS: 12-3-1 O/U 9-7
Week 4 – SU: 6-8 ATS: 9-5 O/U 6-8
Week 5 – SU: 10-4 ATS: 6-7-1 O/U 7-7
Week 6 – SU: 10-5 ATS: 7-7-1 O/U 7-8
Week 7 – SU: 11-4 ATS: 8-7 O/U 5-9-1

Seattle at Arizona

Prediction: Seahawks 22-20 (57.7%)

Pick: Seattle +1

Total: Under 43.5 

San Diego at Atlanta 

Prediction: Falcons 25-23 (53.7%)

Pick: Chargers +5.5

Total: Under 53

Cleveland at Cincinnati 

Prediction: Bengals 25-18 (68.1%) 

Pick: Browns +11

Total: Under 46.5 

Houston at Denver 

Prediction: Broncos 24-19 (64.9%)

Pick: Texans +8.5

Total: Over 40.5 

Washington at Detroit

Prediction: Lions 25-20 (61.6%)

Pick: Lions +1

Total: Under 50

Chicago at Green Bay 

Prediction: Packers 26-20 (67.8%)

Pick: Bears +9.5 

Total: Under 47

Oakland at Jacksonville

Prediction: Raiders 21-20 (50.1%)

Pick: Raiders +2

Total: Under 47.5

New Orleans at Kansas City

Prediction: Chiefs 26-23 (57.8%) 

Pick: Saints +6.5

Total: Under 51.5 

Buffalo at Miami

Prediction: Dolphins 22-21 (52.8%)

Pick: Dolphins +2.5

Total: Under 45.5 

Baltimore at New York Jets

Prediction: Jets 21-20 (54.0%) 

Pick: Ravens +2

Total: Over 40 PUSH

Minnesota at Philadelphia

Prediction: Eagles 24-23 (53.8%)

Pick: Eagles +3

Total: Over 39

New England at Pittsburgh

Prediction: Patriots 25-24 (50.7%)

Pick: Steelers +7.5

Total: Over 48.5

Tampa Bay at San Francisco 

Prediction: 49ers 22-19 (60.4%) 

Pick: 49ers -1

Total: Under 45.5

New York Giants at Los Angeles (nee St. Louis)

Prediction: Rams 22-21 (54.0%)

Pick: Rams +3

Total: Under 45.5 

Indianapolis at Tennessee

Prediction: Colts 23-21 (54.1%)

Pick: Colts +4

Total: Under 48.5

 

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NFL Rankings – Week 7

Oct 20

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 Rank Team Prosp Retro PredMargin Change W L
1 SEA 74 50 4.21  –  4  1
2 CAR 67 51 2.73  –  1  5
3 NE 65 55 2.97  +1  5  1
4 DEN 64 47 2.70  -1  4  2
5 GB 59 55 2.79  –  3  2
6 ARI 59 52 2.14  +3  3  3
7 DAL 56 50 0.25  +6  5  1
8 HOU 56 51 0.32  +2  4  2
9 BAL 56 49 0.28  +3  3  3
10 CIN 55 48 1.77  -2  2  4
11 BUF 55 51 -0.17  +7  4  2
12 KC 55 45 1.11  +3  3  2
13 PIT 55 50 1.89  -7  4  2
14 PHI 53 49 0.27  -7  3  2
15 NO 53 51 0.24  +2  2  3
16 MIN 52 55 0.16  -2  5  0
17 ATL 52 46 -0.16  -6  4  2
18 DET 50 51 -0.12  -2  3  3
19 WAS 49 53 -1.36  +4  4  2
20 NYJ 48 44 -0.45  -1  1  5
21 CHI 48 51 -1.41  -1  1  5
22 SD 46 51 -0.75  –  2  4
23 SF 45 48 -1.88  -2  1  5
24 IND 41 49 -0.38  –  2  4
25 TB 40 49 -1.90  +2  2  3
26 NYG 40 51 -0.65  –  3  3
27 TEN 38 49 -2.48  +1  3  3
28 OAK 37 51 -1.88  -3  4  2
29 CLE 36 49 -3.31  –  0  6
30 LA 34 49 -1.88  –  3  3
31 MIA 34 51 -1.61 +1  2  4
32 JAC 28 50 -3.43  -1  2 3

 

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Predicted NFL Standings – Week 6

Oct 15

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Projected Standings

AFC

AFC East 

New England: 10-6 (4-1) 10.074

Buffalo: 8-8 (3-2) 8.391

NY Jets: 7-9 (1-4) 6.941

Miami: 5-11 (1-4) 5.033

AFC North

Pittsburgh: 10-6 (4-1) 10.316

Cincinnati: 8-8 (2-3) 8.394

Baltimore: 7-9 (3-2) 7.145

Cleveland: 3-13 (0-5) 2.936

AFC South

Houston: 8-8 (3-2) 7.881

Indianapolis: 7-9 (2-3) 7.295

Tennessee: 6-10 (2-3) 5.996

Jacksonville: 4-12 (1-3) 4.211

AFC West

Denver: 10-6 (4-1) 10.347

Kansas City: 8-8 (2-2) 8.140

Oakland: 7-9 (4-1) 7.012

San Diego: 7-9 (2-4) 6.923

NFC

NFC East

Dallas: 9-7 (4-1) 9.426

Philadelphia: 8-8 (3-1) 8.183

Washington: 6-10 (3-2) 6.421

NY Giants: 6-10 (2-3) 6.267

NFC North

Green Bay: 11-5 (3-1) 10.787

Minnesota: 10-6 (5-0) 9.893

Detroit: 7-9 (2-3) 6.982

Chicago: 6-10 (1-4) 5.910

NFC South

Atlanta: 9-7 (4-1) 9.059

Carolina: 9-7 (1-4) 8.512

New Orleans: 7-9 (1-3) 6.596

Tampa Bay: 5-11 (2-3) 4.813

NFC West

Seattle: 11-5 (3-1) 11.037

Arizona: 8-8 (2-3) 8.355

Los Angeles (nee St. Louis): 7-9 (3-2) 6.758

San Francisco: 4-12 (1-4) 3.966

Team – Median Predicted Record (Actual Record) Expected Wins
Italics: Projected playoff team 

Projected Playoffs

AFC

  1. Denver
  2. Pittsburgh
  3. New England
  4. Houston
  5. Cincinnati
  6. Buffalo

NFC

  1. Seattle
  2. Green Bay
  3. Dallas
  4. Atlanta
  5. Minnesota
  6. Carolina3

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NFL Picks – Week 6

Oct 14

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2015 Record
My record 2016:
Total (weeks 1-6) –SU: 55-36 ATS: 51-38-4 O/U: 43-46-2
Week 1 – SU: 12-4 ATS: 10-5-1 O/U: 5-10-1
Week 2 – SU: 9-7 ATS: 7-9 O/U: 9-6-1
Week 3 – SU: 8-8 ATS: 12-3-1 O/U 9-7
Week 4 – SU: 6-8 ATS: 9-5 O/U 6-8
Week 5 – SU: 10-4 ATS: 6-7-1 O/U 7-7
Week 6 – SU: 10-5 ATS: 7-7-1 O/U 7-8

Denver at San Diego

Prediction: Broncos 24-22 (67.8%)

Pick: Chargers +3

Total: Over 45.5 

San Francisco at Buffalo

Prediction: Bills 21-19 (68.4%)

Pick: 49ers +8

Total: Under 44.5 

Jacksonville at Chicago

Prediction: Bears 24-20 (81.4%)

Pick: Bears -2

Total: Under 44.5 

Los Angeles at Detroit

Prediction: Lions 23-20 (77.2%)

Pick: Rams +3.5

Total: Under 43.5

Indianapolis at Houston

Prediction: Texans 23-21 (62.8%)

Pick: Colts +3 PUSH

Total: Under 46

Pittsburgh at Miami

Prediction: Steelers 24-22 (66.1%)

Pick: Dolphins +7.5 

Total: Under 47.5

Cincinnati at New England

Prediction: Patriots 25-22 (74.6%)

Pick: Bengals +8.5

Total: Under 47

Carolina at New Orleans

Prediction: Saints 25-24 (51.8%)

Pick: Saints +3.5 

Total: Under 53

Dallas at Green Bay

Prediction: Packets 25-21

Pick: Packers -4

Total: Under 47

Baltimore at NY Giants

Prediction: Giants 22-21 (56.4%)

Pick: Ravens +3

Total: Under 44.5 

Kansas City at Oakland

Prediction: Chiefs 22-21 (62.0%)

Pick: Chiefs +1

Total: Under 47

Atlanta at Seattle

Prediction: Seahawks 26-20 (88.7%)

Pick: Seahawks -6

Total: Under 46

Cleveland at Tennessee

Prediction: Titans 22-21 (62.4%)

Pick: Browns +7

Total: Under 45.5 

Philadelphia at Washington

Prediction: Eagles 24-23 (60.6%)

Pick: Washington Football Team +2

Total: Over 45

NY Jets at Arizona

Prediction: Cardinals 23-20 (77.7%)

Pick: Jets +7.5

Total: Under 47

 

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NFL Rankings – Week 6

Oct 11

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 Rank Team Prosp Retro PredMargin Change W L
1 SEA 72 49 4.401  –  3  1
2 CAR 68 53 2.037  +1  1  4
3 DEN 66 49 3.222  -1  4  1
4 NE 63 53 3.439  +1  4  1
5 GB 61 52 3.082  +2  3  1
6 PIT 60 54 1.869  –  4  1
7 PHI 60 51 1.109  -3  3  1
8 CIN 55 51 1.849  – 2  3
9 ARI 54 50 1.637  +4  2  3
10 HOU 54 49 -0.432  –  3  2
11 ATL 54 47 0.126  +4  4  1
12 BAL 54 51 0.116  -3  3 2
13 DAL 54 52 0.257  -2  4  1
14 MIN 53 54 0.149  +5  5  0
15 KC 53 48 1.098  -3  2  2
16 DET 52 49 0.074  +2  2  3
17 NO 52 49 0.650  -3  1  3
18 BUF 52 49 -0.511  -1  3  2
19 NYJ 50 46 -0.450  -3  1  4
20 CHI 48 50 -1.178  +1 1  4
21 SF 46 50 -1.210  +1  1  4
22 SD 46 49 -0.687  -2  1  4
23 WAS 45 52 -1.867  –  3  2
24 IND 41 50 -0.378  +1  2 3
25 OAK 41 49 -2.062  +2  4  1
26 NYG 40 50 -0.767  -2  2  3
27 TB 40 49 -2.347  +1  2  3
28 TEN 37 47 -2.880  +3  2 3
29 CLE 36 51 -2.765  -3  0  5
30 LA 34 49 -1.887  –  3  2
31 JAC 30 50 -3.863  +1  1  3
32 MIA 29 49 -1.833 -3  1  4

 

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Trump’s rise was slow and steady; Trump’s fall was not.

Oct 9

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Since the end of the first debate, it’s been all Clinton up and Trump down.  Cheers.

predictitpresident_timepredictitpresident_20161009_dc_corrpredictitpresident_20161009_dc

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Predicted NFL Standings – Week 5

Oct 9

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Projected Standings

AFC

AFC East 

New England: 10-6 (3-1) 10.150

Buffalo: 8-8 (1-2) 8.051

NY Jets: 7-9 (1-2) 6.934

Miami: 6-10 (1-2) 5.979

AFC North

Pittsburgh: 10-6 (2-1) 9.790

Cincinnati: 9-7 (1-2) 8.908

Baltimore: 8-8 (3-0) 7.697

Cleveland: 4-12 (0-3) 3.652

AFC South

Houston: 8-8 (2-1) 7.968

Indianapolis: 7-9 (1-2) 7.159

Tennessee: 5-11 (1-2) 4.756

Jacksonville: 4-12 (0-3) 4.213

AFC West

Denver: 12-4 (3-0) 12.179

Kansas City: 8-8 (2-1) 8.297

San Diego: 7-9 (1-2) 7.169

Oakland: 6-10 (2-1) 6.132

NFC

NFC East

Dallas: 9-7 (2-1) 9.144

Philadelphia: 9-7 (3-0) 9.027

NY Giants: 6-10 (2-1) 6.152

Washington: 5-11 (1-2) 5.616

NFC North

Green Bay: 11-5 (2-1) 10.519

Minnesota: 9-7 (3-0) 9.085

Detroit: 7-9 (1-2) 6.825

Chicago: 6-10 (0-3) 6.374

NFC South

Carolina: 9-7 (1-2) 9.219

Atlanta: 8-8 (2-1) 8.181

New Orleans: 7-9 (0-3) 6.947

Tampa Bay: 3-13 (1-2) 3.353

NFC West

Seattle: 11-5 (2-1) 11.022

Arizona: 8-8 (1-2) 8.347

Los Angeles (nee St. Louis): 7-9 (2-1) 6.977

San Francisco: 4-12 (1-2) 4.178

Team – Median Predicted Record (Actual Record) Expected Wins
Italics: Projected playoff team 

Projected Playoffs

AFC

  1. Denver
  2. New England
  3. Pittsburgh
  4. Houston
  5. Cincinnati
  6. Kansas City

NFC

  1. Seattle
  2. Green Bay
  3. Carolina
  4. Dallas
  5. Minnesota
  6. Philadelphia

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NFL Rankings – Week 5

Oct 9

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Team Prosp PredMargin Change W L
1 SEA 72 4.26  –  3  1
2 DEN 68 3.29  +1  4  0
3 CAR 68 2.23  -1  1  3
4 PHI 63 1.12  +1  3  0
5 NE 62 3.02  -1  3  1
6 PIT 60 1.83  +4  3  1
7 GB 57 2.86  -1  2  1
8 CIN 56 1.97  +3  2  2
9 BAL 55 0.22  +7  3  1
10 HOU 55 -0.34  -3  3  1
11 DAL 54 0.33  +4  3  1
12 KC 54 1.18  -3  2  2
13 ARI 53 1.58  +5  2  3
14 NO 52 0.52  -1  1  3
15 ATL 52 -0.14  +6  3  1
16 NYJ 52 -0.14  -4  1  3
17 BUF 52 -0.27  +3  2  2
18 DET 50 0.24  -10  1  3
19 MIN 49 -0.12  – 4  0
20 SD 49 -0.21  -6  1  3
21 CHI 47 -1.34  +2  1  3
22 SF 47 -1.25  -5  1  4
23 WAS 46 -1.73  -1 2  2
24 NYG 42 -0.77  +3  2  2
25 IND 41 -0.43  -1  1  3
26 CLE 41 -2.49  -1  0  4
27 OAK 39 -2.22  -1  3  1
28 TB 37 -2.57  –  1 3
29 MIA 33 -1.48  –  1 3
30 LA 32 -2.18  –  3  1
31 TEN 32 -3.23  –  1  3
32 JAC 30 -3.76  –  1  3

 

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NFL Playoff Probabilities – Week 5

Oct 9

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Team WinDivison MakePlayoffs MakeSuperBowl WinSuperBowl
ARI 11.9 42.6 4.0 1.7
ATL 27.9 44.0 6.6 2.5
BAL 12.3 30.0 4.5 2.1
BUF 15.8 40.1 4.6 2.1
CAR 60.7 73.1 9.8 5.1
CHI 1.8 7.4 0.5 0.0
CIN 29.8 60.8 8.7 3.9
CLE 0.2 0.7 0.1 0.0
DAL 48.2 65.9 8.2 4.0
DEN 93.4 99.2 31.7 20.0
DET 3.5 12.7 2.3 1.0
GB 70.0 90.2 18.3 7.5
HOU 60.1 62.1 7.8 3.1
IND 34.4 38.2 3.3 0.9
JAC 2.3 2.6 0.4 0.0
KC 5.4 44.1 3.8 1.6
MIA 2.2 7.6 0.7 0.3
MIN 24.7 59.6 8.2 2.8
NE 75.0 86.6 15.2 7.7
NO 11.4 19.2 2.7 0.8
NYG 3.7 7.1 0.8 0.1
NYJ 7.0 17.9 2.8 1.3
OAK 0.2 7.1 0.8 0.1
PHI 45.7 62.9 8.5 4.7
PIT 57.7 80.5 13.2 7.3
SD 1.0 18.8 2.2 0.9
SEA 86.1 95.0 27.7 17.7
SF 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.1
STL 1.9 14.7 1.7 0.3
TB 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
TEN 3.2 3.7 0.2 0.2
WAS 2.4 5.0 0.6 0.2

 

 

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