Final Four: Kentucky, Wisconsin, Duke, Michigan State

Kentucky beats Duke: Yosarian, ZachB, 7

Duke beats Kentucky: Pookie, Juho, 4

Kentucky beats Michigan St: Yosarian, ZachB, 13

Michigan State beats Kentucky: Juho, One Shining MGF, 2

Wisconsin beats Duke: Monte, ZachB, 6

Duke beats Wisconsin: ZachB, Monte, 4

Wisconsin beats Michigan State: ZachB, Wally, 15

Michigan State beats Wisconsin: Wally, ZachB, 3

We. Are. Still. Alive.

Disclaimer: I’m not guaranteeing that everything here is correct.  Please verify everything for yourself if you plan on using this information to hedge.

Scenarios where we finish first

There are only 32 possible scenarios left for the rest of the NCAA tournament.  There are two scenarios that would make us repeat champions.

1.) Final Four of Kentucky, Wisconsin, Gonzaga, and Michigan State with Gonzaga beating Kentucky in the finals.

2.) Final Four of Kentucky, Wisconsin, Gonzaga, and Louisville with Gonzaga beating Kentucky in the finals.

Scenarios where we finish second

There are three scenarios that we finish second in:

1.) Final Four of Kentucky, Wisconsin, Gonzaga, and Louisville with Gonzaga beating Wisconsin in the finals.

2.) Final Four of Kentucky,Wisconsin, Duke, and Louisville with Louisville beating Kentucky in the finals.

3.) Final Four of Kentucky,Wisconsin, Duke, and Michigan State with Michigan State beating Kentucky in the finals.

Some notes

• If Duke wins tomorrow, we cannot repeat as champions.
• If Gonzaga beats Kentucky in the finals, we win.
• If Kentucky makes it to the finals and loses, the worst we can finish is 4th.
• If Louisville wins tomorrow, ZachB cannot win.
• No matter what happens in the games tomorrow, we will still have a scenario to finish top 2.
• At the end of the Sunday night, we will either be in 6th, 12th, or 14th.
• We are currently in 13th.
• 7 of the top 12 teams have no chance to cash.
• We cannot win if Kentucky wins it all.
• If Gonzaga beats Duke, we end the night in 14th no matter what happens in the other game.
• If Louisville and Duke win, we end the night in 6th, but have no chance to finish first.
• The worst we can finish at the end of the tournament is 18th.  This would happen if Kentucky, Wisconsin, Duke and Louisville made it to the final four and Wisconsin beat Louisville.
• In 7 of the 32 scenarios remaining, we finish in third, with a remaining 4 scenarios where we finish in fourth.
• In 24 out of the 32 scenarios we finish in the top 10.
• Based on current odds, the Final Four is expected to be Kentucky, Wisconsin, Duke, and Michigan State with Kentucky beating Duke in the finals.  In that scenario we finish 7th.

There are 4 possible final four scenarios.  Each has its own heading.  Under each of the 4 scenarios, I list a finals result, and, given that result, who finishes first, second, and what place my team finishes.

Potential Winners with 6 games to play

Final Four: Kentucky, Wisconsin, Duke, Louisville

Kentucky beats Duke: Yosarian, ZachB, 8

Duke beats Kentucky: Juho, Pookie, 3

Kentucky beats Louisville: Yosarian, Bayz, 16

Louisville beats Kentucky: Juho, One Shining MGF, 2

Wisconsin beats Duke: Monte, Wally, 7

Duke beats Wisconsin: Monte, ZachB, 4

Wisconsin beats Louisville: Monte, Wally, 18

Louisville beats Wisconsin: Wally, Monte, 3

Final Four: Kentucky, Wisconsin, Duke, Michigan State

Kentucky beats Duke: Yosarian, ZachB, 7

Duke beats Kentucky: Pookie, Juho, 4

Kentucky beats Michigan St: Yosarian, ZachB, 13

Michigan State beats Kentucky: Juho, One Shining MGF, 2

Wisconsin beats Duke: Monte, ZachB, 6

Duke beats Wisconsin: ZachB, Monte, 4

Wisconsin beats Michigan State: ZachB, Wally, 15

Michigan State beats Wisconsin: Wally, ZachB, 3

Final Four: Kentucky, Wisconsin, Gonzaga, Louisville

Kentucky beats Gonzaga: Yosarian, Lavarel, 5

Gonzaga beats Kentucky: One Shining MGF, Coop, 1

Kentucky beats Louisville: Lavarel, Yosarian, 15

Louisville beats Kentucky: Juho, Wally, 3

Wisconsin beats Gonzaga: Wally, ur1, 6

Gonzaga beats Wisconsin: Wally, One Shining MGF, 2

Wisconsin beats Louisville: Wally, Monte, 16

Louisville beats Wisconsin: Wally, Monte, 4

Final Four: Kentucky, Wisconsin, Gonzaga, Michigan State

Kentucky beats Gonzaga: Lavarel, ZachB, 7

Gonzaga beats Kentucky: One Shining MGF, ZachB, 1

Kentucky beats Michigan State: Lavarel, ZachB, 13

Michigan State beats Kentucky: Yosarian, Juho, 3

Wisconsin beats Gonzaga: Wally, ZachB, 7

Gonzaga beats Wisconsin: ZachB, Wally, 3

Wisconsin beats Michigan State: Wally, Zach B, 15

Michigan State beats Wisconsin: Wally, ZachB, 3

Arizona -1.5

Kentucky -11

Gonzaga +2.5

Louisville +2.5

Cheers.

If I had to bet every game (Games I really like in BOLD):

Oklahoma +2.5

Utah +6

Louisville -2.5

Gonzaga -8.5

Xavier +10.5

West Virginia +13

North Carolina +6

Notre Dame +1.5

Cheers.

If I had to bet every game.  Bets I really like in bold:

San Diego State +9

Gonzaga -6

Oregon +12

Maryland EVEN

Wichita State +1.5

Oklahoma -4.5

Louisville +2.5

Cheers.

If I had to pick all 8 games today against the spread (Games I really like in bold):

Arkansas +5

Butler +4

Cincinnati +16

Georgia State +6.5

NC State +9.5

Ohio State +9.5

UCLA -5.5

Utah -4

Cheers.

P.S. This is pretty cool.

Who is going to win this thing?

Kentucky.

Teams not named Kentucky most likely to win

Wisconsin

Arizona

Duke

Virginia

Gonzaga

Villanova

Best Double Digit Seeds

Ohio State

Texas

BYU

Indiana

Davidson

Upset watch

Purdue (9) over Cincinnati

Texas (11)  over Butler

UCLA (11) over SMU

Someone (11) over Xavier

Someone (11) over Providence

Ohio State (10) over VCU

Buffalo (12) over Virginia

Valparaiso (13) over Maryland

Georgia State (14) over Baylor

Bold Predictions

All four 11 seeds win in round one.

Utah to the final 4.

Notre Dame lose in the first round.

Most likely Final 4

Kentucky

Wisconsin

Duke

Virginia

Stretch Final 4

Kansas

Arizona

Oklahoma

Iowa State

Crazy Final 4

Texas

Ohio State

Michigan State

Utah

Best X seed

1 – Kentucky

2 – Arizona

3 – Oklahoma

4 – North Carolina

5 – Utah

6 – SMU

7 – Wichita State

8 – San Diego State

9 – Oklahoma State

10 – Ohio State

11 – Texas

12 – Buffalo

13 – Harvard

14 – Georgia State

15 – New Mexico State

16 – Coastal Carolina

Worst X seed

1 – Villanova

2 – Kansas

3 – Notre Dame

4 – Georgetown

5 – Northern Iowa

6 – Butler

7 – VCU

8 – Cincinnati

9 – St. John’s

10 – Georgia

11 – Boise State

12 – Wofford

13 – Eastern Washington

14 – Albany NY

15 – Texas Southern

16 – Hampton

Some bets

Northeastern +13

Lafayette +23

Harvard +11

Utah -6.5

Arkansas -7.5

Georgetown -7

Louisville -8.5

Oklahoma State +1.5

Oklahoma -13

To win

Ohio State +10000

Texas +10000

Utah +6000

Oklahoma +6500

Number of correct teams predicted: 66 out of 68.

Number of correctly seeded teams: 29 out of 68

Number of teams correctly seeded within one seed: 60 out of 68

Teams I had OUT that made it: Cincinnati (9) and Boise State (11)

Teams I had IN that didn’t make it: Stanford and Texas A&M

Biggest discrepancies: Texas (predicted: 8, actual: 11), Xavier (predicted: 9, actual: 6),  Michigan State (predicted: 5, actual: 7), Georgetown (predicted: 6, actual: 4), Ohio State (predicted: 8, actual: 10), Dayton (predicted: 9, actual: 11), San Diego State (predicted: 10, actual: 8), LSU (predicted: 11, actual: 9)

Predicted Seed (Actual Seed)

Team Conf Record Seed KENTUCKY* sec 33-0 1 (1) VILLANOVA bigeast 32-2 1 (1) WISCONSIN* big10 30-3 1 (1) ARIZONA pac10 31-3 1 (2) DUKE acc 29-4 2 (1) VIRGINIA acc 29-3 2 (2) GONZAGA wcc 32-2 2 (2) KANSAS big12 26-8 2 (2) NOTRE DAME acc 29-5 3 (3) IOWA STATE big12 25-8 3 (3) LOUISVILLE acc 24-8 3 (4) NORTH CAROLINA acc 24-11 3 (4) MARYLAND big10 27-6 4 (4) OKLAHOMA big12 22-10 4 (3) BAYLOR big12 24-9 4 (3) ARKANSAS sec 26-7 4 (5) UTAH pac10 24-8 5 (5) MICHIGAN STATE big10 23-10 5 (7) WEST VIRGINIA big12 23-9 5 (5) NORTHERN IOWA mvc 30-3 5 (5) BUTLER bigeast 22-10 6 (6) WICHITA STATE mvc 28-4 6 (7) GEORGETOWN bigeast 21-10 6 (4) IOWA big10 21-11 6 (7) SMU*  aac 26-6 7 (6) VA COMMONWEALTH* atlantic10 25-9 7 (7) OREGON pac10 25-9 7 (8) PROVIDENCE bigeast 22-11 7 (6) ST JOHNS bigeast 21-11 8 (9) OHIO STATE big10 23-10 8 (10) TEXAS big12 20-13 8 (11) PURDUE big10 21-12 8 (9) DAYTON atlantic10 25-7 9 (11) NC STATE acc 20-13 9 (8) DAVIDSON atlantic10 24-7 9 (10) XAVIER bigeast 21-13 9 (6) BYU wcc 25-9 10 (11) SAN DIEGO ST mountwest 26-8 10 (8) GEORGIA sec 21-11 10 (10) OKLAHOMA STATE big12 18-13 10 (9) OLE MISS sec 20-12 11 (11) LSU sec 22-10 11 (9) STANFORD/INDIANA pac10/big10 19-13 11 (OUT/10) UCLA/TEXAS A&M pac10/sec 20-13 11 (11/OUT) STEPHEN F AUSTIN southland 29-4 12 (12) VALPARAISO  horizon 28-5 12 (13) BUFFALO mac 23-9 12 (12) WYOMING mountwest 25-9 12 (12) HARVARD ivy 22-7 13 (13) UC IRVINE bigwest 21-12 13 (13) WOFFORD southern 28-6 13 (12) GEORGIA ST* sun belt 23-9 13 (14)  NEW MEXICO STATE  wac 23-10 14 (15)  NORTHEASTERN  colonial  23-11 14 (14) EASTERN WASH  big sky  26-8 14 (13) ALBANY  ameast  24-8 14 (14) UAB  confusa  19-15 15 (14) N DAKOTA ST  mcc  23-9 15 (15) COASTAL CAROLINA  big south  24-9 15 (16) NORTH FLORIDA  asun  23-11 15 (16) BELMONT  ovc  22-10 16 (15) MANHATTAN  maac  19-13 16 (16) LAFAYETTE/TEXAS SOUTHERN  patriot/swac  20-12/22-12 16 (16/15) ROBERT MORRIS/HAMPTON  northeast/mideastern  19-14/16-17 16 (16/16)