Projected Records

Team – (Projected Median wins) expected wins [Actual Wins] actualWins-predWins

AFC East

New England – (13-3) 13.044 [12-4] -1

Miami – (6-10) 6.344 [8-8] +2

Buffalo – (6-10) 5.905 [9-7] +3

NY Jets (5-11) 5.329 [4-12] -1

AFC North

Baltimore (9-7) 9.192 [10-6] +1

Pittsburgh – (9-7) 9.129 [11-5] +2

Cincinnati – (9-7) 9.041 [10-5-1] +1.5

Cleveland – (5-11) 5.328 [7-9] +2

AFC South

Houston (11-5) 10.679 [9-7] -2

Indianapolis – (7-9) 7.114 [11-5] +4

Tennessee (7-9) 6.623 [2-14] -5

Jacksonville (2-14) 2.234 [3-13] +1

AFC West

Denver – (13-3) 12.636 [12-4] -1

San Diego – (8-8) 8.334 [9-7] +1

Kansas City – (7-9) 7.369 [9-7] +2

Oakland – (4-12) 4.213 [3-13] -1

NFC East

Philadelphia (10-6) 9.579 [10-6] 0

Dallas (8-8) 8.256 [12-4] +4

NY Giants (8-8) 7.801 [6-10] -2

Washington (8-8) 7.75 [4-12] -4

NFC North

Green Bay (11-5) 10.659 [12-4] +1

Detroit (9-7) 9.095 [11-5] +2

Chicago (9-7) 8.505 [5-11] -4

Minnesota (5-11) 5.352 [7-9] +2

NFC South

New Orleans (11-5) 10.990 [7-9] -4

Carolina (9-7) 8.909 [7-8-1] -1.5

Atlanta (8-8) 8.227 [6-10] -2

Tampa Bay (5-11) 5.227 [2-14] -3

NFC West

San Francisco (12-4) 11.594 [8-8] -4

Seattle (11-5) 11.449 [12-4] +1

Arizona (5-11) 5.312 [11-5] +6

St. Louis (5-11) 4.781 [6-10] +1

I went back to my 2014 NFL season preview to check out my playoff predictions.  I did very well in the AFC getting 5 out of the 6 playoff teams correct (I missed the Colts).  Along with this, I got the 1 and 2 seeds exactly correct.  In the NFC, I only got 3 out of the 6 playoff teams (Green Bay, Seattle, and Detroit).  I had picked San Francisco, New Orleans, and Philadelphia to make the playoffs, but they all missed.  Further, I had picked San Francisco and New Orleans to be my top 2 seeds.  In the NFC, the only seed I correctly identified was the Lions at the 6 seed.

So overall, I got 8 out of the 12 playoff teams correct.  Not bad.  imho.

Below are my playoff predictions along with the actual results in parenthesis.

Predictions:

AFC

1. New England (1 seed)

2. Denver (2 seed)

3. Houston (Missed Playoffs)

4. Baltimore (6 seed)

5. Pittsburgh (3 seed)

6. Cincinnati (5 seed)

NFC

1. San Francisco (Missed Playoffs)

2. New Orleans (Missed Playoffs)

3. Green Bay (2 seed)

4. Philadelphia (Missed Playoffs)

5. Seattle (1 seed)

6. Detroit (6 seed)

Cheers!

Total (weeks 1-17) – SU: 170-85-1 ATS: 126-124-6 O/U: 135-118-3 

Week 1 – SU: 9-7-0 ATS: 8-8-0 O/U: 13-3-0

Week 2 – SU: 10-6-0 ATS: 10-6-0 O/U: 10-6-0

Week 3 – SU: 12-4-0 ATS: 9-6-1  O/U: 8-8-0

Week 4 – SU: 7-6-0 ATS: 5-7-1  O/U: 5-8-0

Week 5 – SU: 14-2-0 ATS: 6-9-0  O/U: 9-6-0

Week 6 – SU: 11-3-1 ATS: 8-7-0  O/U: 6-9-1

Week 7 – SU: 11-4-0 ATS: 7-8-0  O/U: 8-7-0

Week 8 – SU: 11-3-0 ATS: 8-7-0 O/U: 8-7-0

Week 9 – SU: 9-4-0 ATS: 8-5-0 O/U: 4-8-1

Week 10 – SU: 9-4-0 ATS: 4-9-0 O/U: 6-7-0

Week 11 – SU: 9-5-0 ATS: 8-6-0 O/U: 7-7-0

Week 12 – SU: 10-5-0 ATS: 7-8-0 O/U: 8-7-0

Week 13 – SU: 11-5-0 ATS: 8-8-0 O/U: 7-9-0

Week 14 – SU: 7-9-0 ATS: 9-6-1 O/U: 11-5-0

Week 15 – SU: 11-5-0 ATS: 6-8-2 O/U: 10-6-0

Week 16 – SU: 8-8-0 ATS: 10-6-0 O/U: 9-7-0

Week 16 – SU: 12-4-0 ATS: 5-10-1 O/U: 6-9-1

Carolina at Atlanta

Prediction: Falcons 24-22 (54.5%)

Pick: Panthers +4

Total: Under 47.5

Cleveland at Baltimore

Prediction: Ravens 24-18 (65.5%)

Pick: Browns +10 PUSH

Total: Under 42.5 

Oakland at Denver

Prediction: Broncos 30-17 (81.4%)

Pick: Raiders +14

Total: Under 48.5

Detroit at Green Bay

Prediction: Packers 26-22 (62.4%)

Pick: Lions +7.5

Total: Over 47.5

Jacksonville at Houston

Prediction: Texans 25-16 (73.8%)

Pick: Jacksonville +9.5

Total: Over 40.5

San Diego at Kansas City

Prediction: Chiefs 23-21 (56.5%)

Pick: Chargers +3

Total: Over 42.5

NY Jets at Miami

Prediction: Dolphins 22-18 (61.9%)

Pick: Jets +6

Total: Under 41.5

Chicago at Minnesota

Prediction: Vikings 22-21 (52.2%)

Pick: Bears +6.5

Total:  Under 44

Buffalo at New England

Prediction: Patriots 28-21 (69.9%)

Pick: Patriots -5.5

Total: Over 44.5 

Philadelphia at NY Giants

Prediction: Eagles 24-23 (50.8%)

Pick: Eagles +3

Total: Under 52

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh

Prediction: Steelers 23-21 (55.3%)

Pick: Bengals +3.5

Total: Under 48.5

Arizona at San Francisco

Prediction: 49ers 24-17 (67.6%)

Pick: 49ers -6

Total: Over 37 PUSH

St. Louis at Seattle 

Prediction: Seahawks 25-15 (74.9%)

Pick:Rams +12.5

Total: Under 41

New Orleans at Tampa Bay

Prediction: Saints 26-21 (61.6%)

Pick: Saints -4

Total: Over 46.5

Indianapolis at Tennessee

Prediction: Colts 24-22 (55.9%)

Pick: Titans +7

Total: Under 46.5

Dallas at Washington

Prediction:  Washington Football Team 24-23 (51.0%)

Pick: Washington Football Team +6.5

Total: Under 50

This has nothing to do with statistics, but I’ve been reading so much about it lately I wanted to post something.

One thing that I have found odd in the Michael Brown/Eric Garner protests is that it seems many people seem to think that you’re either for the police or against them.  But it’s a choice that doesn’t need to be made.  I’d write more, but what I mean is said better in this article: The Importance of Treating NYPD Officers as Individuals.  And the quote below from that article sums up how I feel:

That intense anger over such videos coincides with persistent rarity of politically motivated attacks on cops underscores Radley Balko’s observation that “it’s possible to both be appalled by senseless executions of cops and angry at unjustified killings by cops.” Those positions are not in tension with one another. They are both consistent the with individualist premise that all lives are valuable, as well as the belief that both police and non-police should act lawfully and justly.

#allLivesMatter

Cheers!

Total +5.59 Units

Win totals (+3.91 units)

Buccaneers – Under 7 (+125)

Rams – Under 7.5 (+135)

Patriots – Over 10.5 (-130) 

Chiefs – Under 8.5 (-150)

Jets – Under 7 (+130)

Jaguars – Under 4.5 (+150)

Colts – Under 9.5 (+100)

Texans – Over 7.5 (-145)

Broncos – Over 11.5 (+105)

Browns – Under 6.5 (+120)

Cardinals – Under 7.5 (+120)

Playoffs (+1.26 units)

49ers – Yes (-300)

Texans – Yes (+280)

Chargers – Yes (+300)

Broncos – Yes (-475)

Panthers – Yes (+235)

Ravens – Yes (+220)

Bengals – Yes (+150)

Colts – No (+145)

Saints – Yes (-140)

Win Division (+.42 unit)

Packers (-130)

Eagles (+130)

New England (-320)

Denver (-300)

The Atlantic has an article posted on its site today entitled “By 2025, the Definition of ‘Privacy’ Will Have Changed“.  This got me thinking again (and I’ve thought about it quite a bit) about just what is a reasonable definition of privacy?  My two major conclusions to that question are that 1) it’s very complicated and 2) it depends.

A simple definition of privacy used in [1] attributed to Professor Weston of Columbia University is

the right “to determine what information about ourselves we will share with others.”

In terms of directly opting in or out of some data collection process, this is a straight forward definition.  However, it’s not always this simple.  For starters, I may want to share my data with organization X but I don’t want to share that same information with organization Y.  So for starters, I would extend this definition to say something like: the right to determine what pieces of information about ourselves we are willing to share and with who.  

Using this definition, someone now would have control over what data they are willing to share and what organizations they are willing to share it with.  Ok easy right?

Well what about this scenario: You are in a class with three students.  You all take a test, and after the test the professor hands back your exam with your grade and tells the class the average test score.  If any two of the three students collude and share their test scores, they can immediately calculate the third students exact score.  I would argue that this is clearly a violation of the third students privacy.  They never willingly shared their exam score with the two other colluding students.  But a piece of information about them was learned.

However, what about situations where the third students score is learned within some range.  Clearly, if you know the students score is between 0 and 100, their privacy is not violated.  But what if you learn that their score was between 80 and 85?  above 50? or less than 70?  Is learning any of these pieces of information a violation of privacy?  I don’t know.  Defining privacy is hard.

The other aspect of defining privacy that I find fascinating is that privacy is not tied directly to a piece of information.  It’s often about HOW that information was obtained.  For instance, if a friend tells me that they have cancer, that is not a violation of privacy.  However, if the hospital without the consent of my friend, discloses that my friend has cancer, a clear violation of privacy has occurred.  EVEN if I already knew that the friend had cancer.  So it’s not the information itself that causes a privacy problem, it is a combination of the data AND the mode of transmission.  (Another random question: Is it a privacy violation for a hospital to confirm that you do NOT have cancer?  I would argue yes.)

My point here is that privacy is a very slippery concept and difficult to pin down an exact definition of.  But studying and learning about privacy is going to be an increasingly valuable topic as data about ourselves is being collected on such a monumental scale that it would have been hard to imagine this even ten years ago.  Try to imagine what this will be like in another 10 year?  or 25 year?  or 50 years?

Finally, I especially like (and am terrified by) this quote from the last paragraph of that article:

We are embarked, irreversibly, I suspect, upon a trajectory toward a world in which those spaces, times, and spheres of activity free from data collection and monitoring will, for all practical purposes, disappear.

Cheers!

Citations:

[1] Fellegi, I.P., 1972. On the question of statistical confidentiality. Journal of
the American Statistical Association 67 (337), 7–18.

Total (weeks 1-16) – SU: 158-81-1 ATS: 121-114-5 O/U: 129-109-2 

Week 1 – SU: 9-7-0 ATS: 8-8-0 O/U: 13-3-0

Week 2 – SU: 10-6-0 ATS: 10-6-0 O/U: 10-6-0

Week 3 – SU: 12-4-0 ATS: 9-6-1  O/U: 8-8-0

Week 4 – SU: 7-6-0 ATS: 5-7-1  O/U: 5-8-0

Week 5 – SU: 14-2-0 ATS: 6-9-0  O/U: 9-6-0

Week 6 – SU: 11-3-1 ATS: 8-7-0  O/U: 6-9-1

Week 7 – SU: 11-4-0 ATS: 7-8-0  O/U: 8-7-0

Week 8 – SU: 11-3-0 ATS: 8-7-0 O/U: 8-7-0

Week 9 – SU: 9-4-0 ATS: 8-5-0 O/U: 4-8-1

Week 10 – SU: 9-4-0 ATS: 4-9-0 O/U: 6-7-0

Week 11 – SU: 9-5-0 ATS: 8-6-0 O/U: 7-7-0

Week 12 – SU: 10-5-0 ATS: 7-8-0 O/U: 8-7-0

Week 13 – SU: 11-5-0 ATS: 8-8-0 O/U: 7-9-0

Week 14 – SU: 7-9-0 ATS: 9-6-1 O/U: 11-5-0

Week 15 – SU: 11-5-0 ATS: 6-8-2 O/U: 10-6-0

Week 16 – SU: 8-8-0 ATS: 10-6-0 O/U: 9-7-0

Tennessee at Jacksonville

Prediction: Titans 21-20 (50.8%)

Pick: Titans +3.5

Total: Over 40

Philadelphia at Washington

Prediction: Eagles 24-23 (51.0%)

Pick: Washington Football Team +8.5

Total: Under 50.5

San Diego at San Francisco

Prediction: 49ers 23-18 (64.5%)

Pick: 49ers -1.5

Total: Under 42

Cleveland at Carolina

Prediction: Panthers 24-19 (62.7%)

Pick: Panthers -3.5

Total: Over 39.5

Detroit at Chicago

Prediction: Bears 23-22 (52.7%)

Pick: Bears +7

Total: Under 46

Indianapolis at Dallas

Prediction: Cowboys 25-23 (56.1%)

Pick: Colts +3

Total: Under 56

Baltimore at Houston

Prediction: Texans 22-21 (54.1%)

Pick: Texans +6.5

Total: Over 41

Minnesota at Miami

Prediction: Dolphins 23-19 (61.5%)

Pick: Vikings +7 

Total: Under 42.5

Atlanta at New Orleans

Prediction: Saints 30-24 (67.3%)

Pick: Falcons +6.5

Total: Under 56

New England at NY Jets

Prediction: Patriots 25-21 (61.2%)

Pick: Jets +10.5

Total: Under 47

Buffalo at Oakland

Prediction: Bills 21-19 (54.7%)

Pick: Raiders +6

Total: Over 39

Kansas City at Pittsburgh

Prediction: Steelers 23-20 (58.8%)

Pick: Chiefs +3.5

Total: Under 46.5 

NY Giants at St. Louis

Prediction: Rams 22-20 (53.6%)

Pick: Giants +5

Total: Under 43.5

Green Bay at Tampa Bay 

Prediction: Packers 25-21 (61.5%)

Pick: Buccaneers +10.5

Total: Under 48.5

Seattle at Arizona

Prediction: Seahawks 22-18 (59.9%)

Pick: Cardinals +9

Total: Over 36

Denver at Cincinnati

Prediction:  Broncos 25-23 (56.0%)

Pick: Bengals +3.5

Total: Over 47.5

Total (weeks 1-15) – SU: 150-73-1 ATS: 111-108-5 O/U: 120-102-2 

Week 1 – SU: 9-7-0 ATS: 8-8-0 O/U: 13-3-0

Week 2 – SU: 10-6-0 ATS: 10-6-0 O/U: 10-6-0

Week 3 – SU: 12-4-0 ATS: 9-6-1  O/U: 8-8-0

Week 4 – SU: 7-6-0 ATS: 5-7-1  O/U: 5-8-0

Week 5 – SU: 14-2-0 ATS: 6-9-0  O/U: 9-6-0

Week 6 – SU: 11-3-1 ATS: 8-7-0  O/U: 6-9-1

Week 7 – SU: 11-4-0 ATS: 7-8-0  O/U: 8-7-0

Week 8 – SU: 11-3-0 ATS: 8-7-0 O/U: 8-7-0

Week 9 – SU: 9-4-0 ATS: 8-5-0 O/U: 4-8-1

Week 10 – SU: 9-4-0 ATS: 4-9-0 O/U: 6-7-0

Week 11 – SU: 9-5-0 ATS: 8-6-0 O/U: 7-7-0

Week 12 – SU: 10-5-0 ATS: 7-8-0 O/U: 8-7-0

Week 13 – SU: 11-5-0 ATS: 8-8-0 O/U: 7-9-0

Week 14 – SU: 7-9-0 ATS: 9-6-1 O/U: 11-5-0

Week 15 – SU: 11-5-0 ATS: 6-8-2 O/U: 10-6-0

Arizona at St. Louis

Prediction: Rams 21-20 (53.0%)

Pick: Cardinals +4.5

Total: Over 40

Pittsburgh at Atlanta

Prediction: Falcons 25-24 (53.2%)

Pick: Falcons +2.5

Total: Under 55

Jacksonville at Baltimore

Prediction: Ravens 25-15 (76.3%)

Pick: Jaguars +14

Total: Under 46

Green Bay at Buffalo

Prediction:  Packers 24-22 (55.3%)

Pick: Bills +6

Total: Under 50.5

Tampa Bay at Carolina

Prediction: Panthers 23-18 (65.9%)

Pick: Panthers -3.5

Total: Under 41.5

Cincinnati at Cleveland

Prediction: Bengals 22-21 (50.7%)

Pick: Bengals +1.5

Total: Under 44

Minnesota at Detroit

Prediction: Lions 25-19 (65.7%)

Pick: Vikings +8

Total: Over 43

Houston at Indianapolis

Prediction: Colts 25-22 (57.7%)

Pick: Texans +7 PUSH

Total: Under 49

Oakland at Kansas City

Prediction: Chiefs 24-16 (69.8%)

Pick: Raiders +10.5

Total: Under 42

Miami at New England

Prediction: Patriots 28-21 (68.7%)

Pick: Dolphins +8

Total: Over 48

Washington at NY Giants

Prediction: Giants 24-21 (57.6%)

Pick: Washington Football Team +7

Total: Under 47

Denver at San Diego

Prediction: Broncos 27-24 (58.5%)

Pick: Chargers +4.5

Total: Over 50.5

San Francisco at Seattle

Prediction: Seahawks 21-18 (60.8%)

Pick: 49ers +10 PUSH

Total: Over 38

NY Jets at Tennessee

Prediction: Titans 20-19 (53.3%)

Pick: Titans +2

Total: Under 42

Dallas at Philadelphia

Prediction: Eagles 27-24 (60.0%)

Pick: Cowboys +3.5

Total: Under 56

New Orleans at Chicago

Prediction: Saints 26-25 (52.2%)

Pick: Bears +3

Total: Under 54.5