Stats in the Wild

Green Bay at Atlanta

Prediction: Packers 25-24 (54.3%)

Pick: Packers +3

Total: Under 52

New England at Buffalo

Prediction: Patriots 24-22 (55.0%)

Pick: Bills +6

Total: Under 47

Arizona at Carolina

Prediction: Panthers 23-21 (55.5%)

Pick: Cardinals +3

Total: Under 47.5

Minnesota at Chicago 

Prediction: Vikings 21-20 (51.0%)

Pick: Bears +4.5

Total: Over 41

Washington at Cincinnati 

Prediction: Bengals 25-20 (63.5%)

Pick: Bengals -3

Total: Under 49.5

NY Jets at Cleveland

Prediction: Jets 22-21 (54.1%)

Pick: Browns +3 PUSH

Total: Under 43.5

Philadelphia at Dallas

Prediction: Cowboys 24-22 (55.0%)

Pick: Eagles +5

Total: Over 43

San Diego at Denver 

Prediction: Broncos 25-20 (64.6%)

Pick: Broncos -4.5

Total: Over 43.5

Detroit at Houston

Prediction: Texans 22-20 (56.0%)

Pick: Lions +2.5

Total: Under 46

Kansas City at Indianapolis 

Prediction: Chiefs 23-22 (50.2%)

Pick: Colts +3

Total: Under 50

Seattle at New Orleans

Prediction: Seahawks 25-23 (56.5%)

Pick: Saints +2.5 

Total: Over 48

Oakland at Tampa Bay

Prediction: Buccaneers 23-21 (55.2%)

Pick: Buccaneers EVEN

Total: Under 49

Jacksonville at Tennessee 

Prediction: Titans 23-20 (57.8%)

Pick: Jaguars +3.5 

Total: Under 44

Below is a plot of the two major presidential candidates probability of winning over the course of time.  Clinton has plummeted in the past few days thanks in part to, and you can’t make this up, the FBI investigating Mark Weiner.  Clinton is still a heavy favorite to win the election, however.  (In fact, I guarantee it).  This plot is based on state electoral markets on predictit.org.  

Some of the state markets, however, I think are probably priced incorrectly.  For instance, California isn’t at a dollar.  We can all be sure that California is going Democrat.  Likewise, Oklahoma isn’t going Democrat.  There isn’t even a 3% chance of it.  So I re-did the plot and left only toss up states with win probabilities that weren’t either 0 or 1.  I gave Hawaii, Maryland, Vermont, California, Massachusetts, New York, Rhode Island, Delaware, Illinois, New Jersey, Connecticut, Oregon, Virginia, New Mexico, and Minnesota to Clinto with probability 1 and Nebraska, Wyoming, West Virginia, Oklahoma, Kentucky, Alabama, North Dakota, South Dakota, Arkansas, Kansas, Tennessee, Montana, Louisiana, Utah, Alaska, Mississippi, Texas, and South Carolina to Trump with probability 1 (though I think I’m being generous here).  All other win probabilities were based on the state markets.  That plot looks like this:

Clinton’s chances of winning are only improved by about half a percent by modeling the election this way.  The plot based entirely on the state electoral markets looks like this:  

On a sort of unrelated note, it really is bizarre how we elect our president.  There are like 3-5 states that actually matter and like 75% of people in those states have already made up their mind which party they will vote for before we even know who the candidates are.  So the president is really elected by a small group of people from a small group of states to represent all Americans.  Very bizarre.

Cheers.

Back on September 15, I told you that I had a model that has accurately predicted 16 out of the last 17 presidential elections.  (That’s only 1 miss since 1948!!!! And 1948 was a long time ago!!!)  Anyway, as you know that model was based on three simple tests:

1.  The Phillies win less than 92.

2. The Indians win less than 97 games.

3.  The Red Sox win at least 75 games.

If all of these are true then the Republican wins.  Well, The Phillies ended with 71 wins, Cleveland ended with 94 wins, and the Red Sox ended with 93 wins.  Check. Check. And Check.  Good bye America.  Hello Donald Trump.

But wait!!!! The Indians have won an additional 9 games in the playoffs bringing their season win total to 106 wins!!!  Hillary is going to win.  America has been saved by the Cleveland Indians!!

Cheers.

Seattle at Arizona

Prediction: Seahawks 22-20 (57.7%)

Pick: Seattle +1

Total: Under 43.5 

San Diego at Atlanta 

Prediction: Falcons 25-23 (53.7%)

Pick: Chargers +5.5

Total: Under 53

Cleveland at Cincinnati 

Prediction: Bengals 25-18 (68.1%) 

Pick: Browns +11

Total: Under 46.5 

Houston at Denver 

Prediction: Broncos 24-19 (64.9%)

Pick: Texans +8.5

Total: Over 40.5 

Washington at Detroit

Prediction: Lions 25-20 (61.6%)

Pick: Lions +1

Total: Under 50

Chicago at Green Bay 

Prediction: Packers 26-20 (67.8%)

Pick: Bears +9.5 

Total: Under 47

Oakland at Jacksonville

Prediction: Raiders 21-20 (50.1%)

Pick: Raiders +2

Total: Under 47.5

New Orleans at Kansas City

Prediction: Chiefs 26-23 (57.8%) 

Pick: Saints +6.5

Total: Under 51.5 

Buffalo at Miami

Prediction: Dolphins 22-21 (52.8%)

Pick: Dolphins +2.5

Total: Under 45.5 

Baltimore at New York Jets

Prediction: Jets 21-20 (54.0%) 

Pick: Ravens +2

Total: Over 40 PUSH

Minnesota at Philadelphia

Prediction: Eagles 24-23 (53.8%)

Pick: Eagles +3

Total: Over 39

New England at Pittsburgh

Prediction: Patriots 25-24 (50.7%)

Pick: Steelers +7.5

Total: Over 48.5

Tampa Bay at San Francisco 

Prediction: 49ers 22-19 (60.4%) 

Pick: 49ers -1

Total: Under 45.5

New York Giants at Los Angeles (nee St. Louis)

Prediction: Rams 22-21 (54.0%)

Pick: Rams +3

Total: Under 45.5 

Indianapolis at Tennessee

Prediction: Colts 23-21 (54.1%)

Pick: Colts +4

Total: Under 48.5

Projected Standings

AFC

AFC East 

New England: 10-6 (4-1) 10.074

Buffalo: 8-8 (3-2) 8.391

NY Jets: 7-9 (1-4) 6.941

Miami: 5-11 (1-4) 5.033

AFC North

Pittsburgh: 10-6 (4-1) 10.316

Cincinnati: 8-8 (2-3) 8.394

Baltimore: 7-9 (3-2) 7.145

Cleveland: 3-13 (0-5) 2.936

AFC South

Houston: 8-8 (3-2) 7.881

Indianapolis: 7-9 (2-3) 7.295

Tennessee: 6-10 (2-3) 5.996

Jacksonville: 4-12 (1-3) 4.211

AFC West

Denver: 10-6 (4-1) 10.347

Kansas City: 8-8 (2-2) 8.140

Oakland: 7-9 (4-1) 7.012

San Diego: 7-9 (2-4) 6.923

NFC

NFC East

Dallas: 9-7 (4-1) 9.426

Philadelphia: 8-8 (3-1) 8.183

Washington: 6-10 (3-2) 6.421

NY Giants: 6-10 (2-3) 6.267

NFC North

Green Bay: 11-5 (3-1) 10.787

Minnesota: 10-6 (5-0) 9.893

Detroit: 7-9 (2-3) 6.982

Chicago: 6-10 (1-4) 5.910

NFC South

Atlanta: 9-7 (4-1) 9.059

Carolina: 9-7 (1-4) 8.512

New Orleans: 7-9 (1-3) 6.596

Tampa Bay: 5-11 (2-3) 4.813

NFC West

Seattle: 11-5 (3-1) 11.037

Arizona: 8-8 (2-3) 8.355

Los Angeles (nee St. Louis): 7-9 (3-2) 6.758

San Francisco: 4-12 (1-4) 3.966

Team – Median Predicted Record (Actual Record) Expected Wins

Italics: Projected playoff team 

Projected Playoffs

AFC

1. Denver
2. Pittsburgh
3. New England
4. Houston
5. Cincinnati
6. Buffalo

NFC

1. Seattle
2. Green Bay
3. Dallas
4. Atlanta
5. Minnesota
6. Carolina3

Denver at San Diego

Prediction: Broncos 24-22 (67.8%)

Pick: Chargers +3

Total: Over 45.5 

San Francisco at Buffalo

Prediction: Bills 21-19 (68.4%)

Pick: 49ers +8

Total: Under 44.5 

Jacksonville at Chicago

Prediction: Bears 24-20 (81.4%)

Pick: Bears -2

Total: Under 44.5 

Los Angeles at Detroit

Prediction: Lions 23-20 (77.2%)

Pick: Rams +3.5

Total: Under 43.5

Indianapolis at Houston

Prediction: Texans 23-21 (62.8%)

Pick: Colts +3 PUSH

Total: Under 46

Pittsburgh at Miami

Prediction: Steelers 24-22 (66.1%)

Pick: Dolphins +7.5 

Total: Under 47.5

Cincinnati at New England

Prediction: Patriots 25-22 (74.6%)

Pick: Bengals +8.5

Total: Under 47

Carolina at New Orleans

Prediction: Saints 25-24 (51.8%)

Pick: Saints +3.5 

Total: Under 53

Dallas at Green Bay

Prediction: Packets 25-21

Pick: Packers -4

Total: Under 47

Baltimore at NY Giants

Prediction: Giants 22-21 (56.4%)

Pick: Ravens +3

Total: Under 44.5 

Kansas City at Oakland

Prediction: Chiefs 22-21 (62.0%)

Pick: Chiefs +1

Total: Under 47

Atlanta at Seattle

Prediction: Seahawks 26-20 (88.7%)

Pick: Seahawks -6

Total: Under 46

Cleveland at Tennessee

Prediction: Titans 22-21 (62.4%)

Pick: Browns +7

Total: Under 45.5 

Philadelphia at Washington

Prediction: Eagles 24-23 (60.6%)

Pick: Washington Football Team +2

Total: Over 45

NY Jets at Arizona

Prediction: Cardinals 23-20 (77.7%)

Pick: Jets +7.5

Total: Under 47

Since the end of the first debate, it’s been all Clinton up and Trump down.  Cheers.