NCAA Tournament Projection – March 11, 2012 3:30pm
Below are my projections for the NCAA tournament field. Other good projections can be found here provided by the geeks at TeamRankings.com. You can check out my rankings here.
Bubble Watch
St. Bonaventure ruined someone’s March. I think that team was Drexel.
Last four in: Seton Hall, Mississippi State, NC State, Northwestern
First four out: Drexel, Texas, NC State, Illinois
My projected field of NCAA Tournament qualifiers
1 seeds: Kentucky, Syracuse, Ohio State, North Carolina
2 seeds: Michigan State, Duke, Missouri, Kansas
3 seeds: Marquette, Baylor, Indiana, Louisville
4 seeds: Wisconsin, Wichita State, Michigan, Creighton
5 seeds: Georgetown, Murray State, Memphis, Florida State
6 seeds: Gonzaga, New Mexico, San Diego State, St. Mary’s-CA
7 seeds: Temple, Vanderbilt, Florida,Cincinnati
8 seeds: UNLV, Saint Louis, Purdue, Notre Dame
9 seeds: Virginia, Alabama, Southern Miss, Iowa State
10 seeds: Oral Roberts, Kansas State, UConn, California
11 seeds: BYU, Harvard, VCU, Colorado State
12 seeds: Xavier, Northwestern, Play-in Winner 1, Play-in Winner 2
13 seeds: Ohio, Long Island, Vermont, South Dakota State
14 seeds: Norfolk State, Long Beach State, Colorado, Davidson
15 seeds: Belmont, Montana, St. Bonaventure, New Mexico State
16 seeds: Detroit, Lehigh, Loyola-MD, Play-in Winner 3, Play-in Winner 4
Play-in Winner 1: Northwestern vs Seton Hall
Play-in Winner 2: North Carolina State vs Mississippi State
Play-in Winner 3: Lamar vs Western Kentucky
Play-in Winner 4: Mississippi Valley State vs UNC-Asheville
Cheers.
A classical problem in probability, which I learned about from Freedman, Pisani, and Purves’ book Statistics (pp. 238-240 in the fourth edition) is that of Galileo’s dice. Galileo was asked why, when rolling three fair dice, a sum of ten occurs more often than a sum of nine; he answered this question in Concerning an Investigation on Dice (from the University of York’s history of statistics page). It had previously been argued that since
10 = 6 + 3 + 1 = 6 + 2 + 2 = 5 + 4 + 1 = 5 + 3 + 2 = 4 + 4 + 2 = 4 + 3 + 3
and
9 = 6 + 2 + 1 = 5 + 3 + 1 = 5 + 2 + 2 = 4 + 4 + 1 = 4 + 3 + 2 = 3 + 3 + 3
View original post 575 more words
NCAA Tournament Projection – March 6, 2012
Below are my projections for the NCAA tournament field. Other good projections can be found here provided by the geeks at TeamRankings.com. You can check out my rankings here.
Bubble Watch
Last four in: Seton Hall, Drexel, South Florida, West Virginia
First four out: Texas, NC State, Illinois, Ole Miss
My projected field of NCAA Tournament qualifiers
1 seeds: Syracuse, Kentucky, Duke, Kansas
2 seeds: North Carolina, Ohio State, Michigan State, Marquette
3 seeds: Missouri, Baylor, Indiana, Wichita State
4 seeds: Michigan, Wisconsin, Creighton, Georgetown
5 seeds: Murray State, Temple, Louisville, St. Mary’s-CA
6 seeds: Gonzaga, San Diego State, Memphis, UNLV
7 seeds: Florida, Florida State, Vanderbilt, Saint Louis
8 seeds: New Mexico,Virginia, Alabama, Purdue
9 seeds: Iowa State, Cincinnati, Southern Miss, Notre Dame
10 seeds: Kansas State, California, BYU, Northwestern
11 seeds: Harvard, Washington, Mississippi State, Oregon
12 seeds: VCU, Colorado State, UConn, Play-In Winner 1
13 seeds: Play-In Winner 2, Nevada, Valpo, Middle Tennessee State,
14 seeds: Long Beach State, Ohio, Davidson, Oral Roberts
15 seeds: Belmont, Montana, Vermont, Loyola (MD)
16 seeds: Bucknell, TX-Arlington, UNC-Asheville, Long Island, Miss Valley State, Savannah State
Play-In Game 1: West Virginia vs Seton Hall
Play-In Game 2: South Florida vs Drexel
By Conference
Ten: Big East
Seven: Big 10
Five: Big 12, SEC
Four: ACC, MWC
Three: Pac-12, WCC
Two: Atlantic 10, Missouri Valley, Conference USA, Colonial
One: America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Horizon, Ivy, MAAC, Mid-American, Mid-Eastern, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Patriot, Southern, Southland, SWAC, Summit, Sun Belt, WAC
Cheers.
NCAA Basketball Rankings – 3/5/2012
Rankings as of 11:01am on 3/5/2012. Sagarin Ratings for games though 3/4/2012.
Previous rankings are here.
Florida falls the farthest this week, dropping 6 spots and landing at number 25 after losing both of their games this week making them losers of three straight (at Georgia, at Vanderbilt, and Kentucky). In the top 10, Michigan State falls three spots to number 7 after losing back to back games to Indiana and Ohio State this week.
Moving in the other direction were teams like Kansas, North Carolina, and Ohio State who each have a win over a top ten team in the last ten days (Missouri, Duke, and Michigan State, respectively). The team making the biggest move in the top 25 this week is Memphis. Who jumps up 6 spots and into the top 25 at number 23. They picked up two big Conference USA wins this week over the 3rd and 4th place teams UCF and Tulsa.
Interesting note: My rankings (The SITW) and the AP rankings have the exact same top 9 teams, but in a different order.
I also think it’s interesting that the Mountain West has two teams in my top 25 and the AP top 25, but neither of those teams is actually in first place in their conference. New Mexico lead the MWC.
Breakdown by conference: 2, 4, 5, 3, 0, 2, 2, 2, 5
ACC Big East Big Ten Big 12 Pac 12 SEC MWC MVC Other
| Team | Rank | Change | Record | AP | Sagarin |
| Syracuse | 1 | – | 30-1 | 2 | 5 |
| Kentucky | 2 | – | 30-1 | 1 | 1 |
| Duke | 3 | – | 26-5 | 6 | 10 |
| Kansas | 4 | ↑1 | 26-5 | 3 | 3 |
| North Carolina | 5 | ↑2 | 27-4 | 4 | 4 |
| Ohio St. | 6 | ↑2 | 25-6 | 7 | 2 |
| Michigan St. | 7 | ↓3 | 24-7 | 8 | 6 |
| Marquette | 8 | ↓2 | 25-6 | 9 | 13 |
| Missouri | 9 | ↑1 | 27-4 | 5 | 7 |
| Baylor | 10 | ↓1 | 25-6 | 12 | 12 |
| Indiana | 11 | ↑2 | 24-7 | 15 | 9 |
| Wichita St. | 12 | ↓1 | 27-4 | 16 | 11 |
| Wisconsin | 13 | ↑2 | 23-8 | 14 | 8 |
| Michigan | 14 | ↑3 | 23-8 | 10 | 20 |
| Creighton | 15 | ↓1 | 28-5 | 19 | 24 |
| Georgetown | 16 | ↓4 | 22-7 | 13 | 14 |
| Murray St. | 17 | ↑1 | 30-1 | 11 | 40 |
| Temple | 18 | ↑3 | 24-6 | 21 | 34 |
| Louisville | 19 | ↓3 | 22-9 | 27 | 22 |
| Gonzaga | 20 | – | 25-5 | 24 | 31 |
| St. Mary’s-CA | 21 | ↑1 | 26-5 | 26 | 35 |
| San Diego St. | 22 | ↑2 | 24-6 | 18 | 45 |
| Memphis | 23 | ↑6 | 23-8 | 31 | 15 |
| UNLV | 24 | ↓1 | 25-7 | 20 | 21 |
| Florida | 25 | ↓6 | 22-9 | 22 | 16 |
26-35: Florida St., Vanderbilt, Saint Louis, New Mexico, Virginia, Alabama, Purdue, Iowa State, Cincinnati, Southern Miss
BCS: My offer still stands…….if you want to contact me you can send me a tweet @StatsInTheWild.
Cheers.
Stats in the Wild 