Category Archives: NFL
A rules question about Super Bowl squares
I just came across the article “A Statistician Shares How To Pick Your Super Bowl Pool Like A Champ” at businessinsider.com. The author of the article, Jill Krasny, asked edgehogs.com statistician, William Briggs, for some advice:
“You want to pick the scores that are most likely to happen, and look at historical information about how score differentials (i.e., pairings) are most realized,” Briggs said. “You shouldn’t pick squares out of the blue that happen infrequently.”
Then she offers this note:
Note: Some people pick the labels on the rows and columns only after all the boxes have been bought, making the game more random. If your office does it this way, and not all do, these statistics will still help you figure your chance of winning.
I would argue that a fundamental rule of the Super Bowl squares game is that you pick a square BEFORE the numbers have been placed on the grid. Instead of saying “Some people” in her note, she should say “Almost all people.” (Am I wrong about this? I’ve never, ever seen the numbers on the board before the squares are filled in.)
The article is still of some use, though, as you get some idea of what your chances of winning are after you get your numbers. Of course, the whole premise that the article was written on (you get to choose your numbers) is almost never true.
Finally, they looked at the last 2,822 NFL games, but if you’re interested in complete results for over 14,000 games in a pretty heat map grid format, I’ve compiled that here.
Go Pats.
Cheers.
A Tale of Two Bradys: It was the best of his games; it was the worst of his games
Here is an article I wrote for Significance Magazine about Tom Brady and the Super Bowl called “A Tale of Two Bradys: It was the best of his games; it was the worst of his games.”
Go Pats.
Cheers.
Super Bowl Squares
I received an email this morning from a friend: “Is there any sort of a statistical breakdown for which are the best numbers to have in a Super Bowl squares pool (for entertainment purposes only)?”
Now, if my friend were going to use this information to gamble, it would be highly unethical. However, since he clearly stated that it was for “entertainment purposes only,” I feel that I can conduct a study with a clear conscience.
If he had wanted to gamble on it, here is a quick explanation of how that usually takes place. (According to that website: “Basically, if you are at a party where you don’t have betting squares you are a Communist.”)
Anyway, using data from football-reference.com I created a ten by ten frequency table (using R, of course) of exactly how many times each outcome has occurred in the history of the NFL. You can find the graph here.
Somethings to note:
- 2-2 is the worst square by far. It’s only happened 5 times in the history of the league. The fair odds for this square are over 2800-to-1.
- The best squares are, no surprise, 7-0 and 0-7, occurring 581 and 577 times, respectively.
- The other great squares to have are in order, 0-3, 0-4, 4-7, and 7-4. All of these have occurred over 480 times each.
- These 6 outcomes (7-0, 0-7, 0-3, 0-4, 4-7, and 7-4) account for almost 23% of all the NFL games ever played.
Cheers.
NFL Conference Championship Games
I didn’t post picks form last weekend, but I would have chosen New England, Baltimore, New Orleans, and Green Bay for a record of 2-2 this past week.
-I’m going to quote myself and re-post this point (from here) because it seems very relevant:
“Last year there were 2 teams that averaged over 23 points on offense and under 18 points on defense. They were the Green Bay Packers and the Pittsburgh Steelers who ultimately met in the Super Bowl. This year there are three teams that meet this criteria: San Francisco 49ers, Baltimore Ravens, and Houston Texans. So, I guess I’m taking the 49ers over the Ravens in the Super Bowl.”
Of course, based on my rankings, right now, I’m picking San Francisco over New England in the Super Bowl.
-My super bowl picks based on my rankings at the beginning of the season was New England over Atlanta. And my pick based on my “gut” was Tampa Bay over Baltimore.
Record: 4-4
✓=Correct Pick; ✗=Incorrect Pick
| Round | Teams | Predicted Winner | Outcome | |
| Con | NYG at SF | San Francisco (55.1%) | ✗ |
|
| Con | Bal at NE | New England (52.1%) | ✓ |
|
| Div | NYG at GB | Green Bay (61.3%) | ✗ |
|
| Div | Hou at Bal | Baltimore (54.1%) | ✓ |
|
| Div | NO at SF | New Orleans (51.0%) | ✗ |
|
| Div | Den at NE | New England (56.8%) | ✓ |
|
| WC | Cin at Hou | Houston (51.3%) | ✓ |
|
| WC | Det at NO | New Orleans (57.9%) | ✓ | |
| WC | Atl at NYG | Atlanta (55.2%) | ✗ |
|
| WC | Pit at Den | Pittsburgh (65.6%) | ✗ |
Cheers.
Stats In the Wild Card Weekend – SITW’s picks
Games start in a few hours minutes, and I wanted to post my picks before the games started. So here they are.
Some Notes:
-My preseason pick for the Super Bowl base on numbers was New England over Atlanta. That’s not crazy at all right now. My Super Bowl pick based on my gut was Tampa Bay over Baltimore. Well, half of that makes sense.
-Last year there were 2 teams that averaged over 23 points on offense and under 18 points on defense. They were the Green Bay Packers and the Pittsburgh Steelers who ultimately met in the Super Bowl. This year there are three teams that meet this criteria: San Francisco 49ers, Baltimore Ravens, and Houston Texans. So, I guess I’m taking the 49ers over the Ravens in the Super Bowl.
Record: 2-2
✓=Correct Pick; ✗=Incorrect Pick
| Round | Teams | Predicted Winner | Outcome | |
| WC | Cin at Hou | Houston (51.3%) | ✓ |
|
| WC | Det at NO | New Orleans (57.9%) | ✓ | |
| WC | Atl at NYG | Atlanta (55.2%) | ✗ |
|
| WC | Pit at Den | Pittsburgh (65.6%) | ✗ |
Cheers.
NFL Rankings – After Week 17
Rankings updated as of 1/1/2012; Records updated as of 1/1/2012; CHFF rankings as of 12/28/2011
AFC NFC
Playoff team
Division Champ
Eliminated from Playoffs
| Team | Rank | Change | Record | CHFF Rank |
| New England | 1 | – | 13-3 | 3 |
| Pittsburgh | 2 | ↑ | 12-4 | 1 |
| Green Bay | 3 | ↓ | 15-1 | 6 |
| Baltimore | 4 | – | 12-4 | 5 |
| Atlanta | 5 | – | 10-6 | 11 |
| 6 | ↑ | 8-8 | 2 | |
| New Orleans | 7 | ↓ | 13-3 | 15 |
| 8 | – | 8-8 | 23 | |
| Detroit | 9 | ↑↑ | 10-6 | 10 |
| San Francisco | 10 | – | 13-3 | 4 |
| NY Giants | 11 | ↓↓ | 9-7 | 8 |
| 12 | – | 8-8 | 12 | |
| 13 | – | 8-8 | 18 | |
| 14 | ↑ | 4-12 | 14 | |
| 15 | ↑↑ | 7-9 | 30 | |
| 16 | ↑↑↑↑ | 7-9 | 9 | |
| 17 | ↓↓↓ | 8-8 | 26 | |
| Cincinnati | 18 | ↓↓ | 9-7 | 22 |
| 19 | ↑↑ | 8-8 | 7 | |
| 20 | ↑↑ | 9-7 | 19 | |
| 21 | ↓↓↓ | 6-10 | 13 | |
| Houston | 22 | ↓↓↓ | 10-6 | 20 |
| 23 | – | 6-10 | 24 | |
| 24 | ↑ | 2-14 | 16 | |
| Denver | 25 | ↓ | 8-8 | 30 |
| 26 | ↑↑↑↑ | 5-11 | 28 | |
| 27 | ↓ | 3-13 | 27 | |
| 28 | ↓ | 4-12 | 21 | |
| 29 | ↓ | 8-8 | 29 | |
| 30 | ↓ | 5-11 | 25 | |
| 31 | – | 6-10 | 17 | |
| 32 | – | 2-14 | 32 |
BCS: My offer still stands…….if you want to contact me you can send me a tweet @StatsInTheWild.
Cheers.
NFL Rankings – After week 17 (using only games from 2011 season)
These are the NFL rankings using only data from the 2011 season. My NFL rankings all season have used games from 2010 in my rankings. I wanted to see how they would look if I dropped the 2010 data points.
Rankings updated as of 1/1/2012; Records updated as of 1/1/2012; CHFF rankings as of 12/28/2011.
AFC NFC
Playoff team
Division Champ
Eliminated from Playoffs
| Team | Rank | Seed | Record | CHFF Rank |
| Green Bay | 1 | 1 | 15-1 | 1 |
| San Francisco | 2 | 2 | 13-3 | 4 |
| Detroit | 3 | 6 | 10-6 | 8 |
| Pittsburgh | 4 | 5 | 12-4 | 6 |
| Baltimore | 5 | 2 | 12-4 | 5 |
| New England | 6 | 1 | 13-3 | 3 |
| New Orleans | 7 | 3 | 13-3 | 2 |
| 8 | – | 8-8 | 23 | |
| Houston | 9 | 3 | 10-6 | 7 |
| Atlanta | 10 | 5 | 10-6 | 11 |
| Cincinnati | 11 | 6 | 9-7 | 9 |
| 12 | – | 8-8 | 15 | |
| Denver | 13 | 4 | 8-8 | 16 |
| 14 | – | 8-8 | 13 | |
| 15 | – | 8-8 | 18 | |
| 16 | – | 8-8 | 14 | |
| 17 | – | 9-7 | 20 | |
| NY Giants | 18 | 4 | 9-7 | 10 |
| 19 | – | 7-9 | 19 | |
| 20 | – | 7-9 | 26 | |
| 21 | – | 6-10 | 24 | |
| 22 | – | 6-10 | 17 | |
| 23 | – | 8-8 | 12 | |
| 24 | – | 8-8 | 21 | |
| 25 | – | 4-12 | 31 | |
| 26 | – | 5-11 | 25 | |
| 27 | – | 6-10 | 22 | |
| 28 | – | 4-12 | 27 | |
| 29 | – | 3-13 | 28 | |
| 30 | – | 5-11 | 29 | |
| 31 | – | 2-14 | 30 | |
| 32 | – | 2-14 | 32 |
BCS: My offer still stands…….if you want to contact me you can send me a tweet @StatsInTheWild.
Cheers.
NFL Rankings After week 16
Rankings updated as of 12/22/2011; Records updated as of 6:22pm 12/24/2011; CHFF rankings as of 12/28/2011
AFC NFC
Clinched Playoff Berth
Divison Leader Division Champ
Eliminated from Playoffs
| Team | Rank | Change | Record | CHFF Rank |
| New England | 1 | – | 12-3 | 3 |
| Green Bay | 2 | – | 14-1 | 1 |
| Pittsburgh | 3 | – | 11-4 | 6 |
| Baltimore | 4 | – | 11-4 | 5 |
| Atlanta | 5 | – | 9-6 | 11 |
| New Orleans | 6 | – | 12-3 | 2 |
| NY Jets | 7 | – | 8-7 | 15 |
| 8 | – | 7-8 | 23 | |
| NY Giants | 9 | ↑ | 8-7 | 10 |
| San Francisco | 10 | ↓ | 12-3 | 4 |
| Detroit | 11 | – | 10-5 | 8 |
| 12 | – | 7-8 | 12 | |
| 13 | – | 7-8 | 18 | |
| Oakland | 14 | ↑↑↑ | 8-7 | 14 |
| 15 | ↓ | 4-11 | 30 | |
| Cincinnati | 16 | ↑↑↑↑↑ | 9-6 | 9 |
| 17 | ↓↓ | 6-9 | 26 | |
| 18 | ↑ | 5-10 | 22 | |
| Houston | 19 | ↓↓↓ | 10-5 | 7 |
| 20 | ↓↓ | 7-8 | 19 | |
| Dallas | 21 | ↓ | 8-7 | 13 |
| Tennessee | 22 | – | 8-7 | 20 |
| 23 | ↑ | 6-9 | 24 | |
| Denver | 24 | ↓ | 8-7 | 16 |
| 25 | ↑↑↑ | 2-13 | 30 | |
| 26 | ↑↑↑↑ | 3-12 | 28 | |
| 27 | ↓ | 4-11 | 27 | |
| 28 | ↓↓↓ | 7-8 | 21 | |
| 29 | ↓↓ | 4-11 | 29 | |
| 30 | ↓ | 5-10 | 25 | |
| 31 | ↑ | 6-9 | 17 | |
| 32 | ↓ | 2-13 | 32 |
BCS: My offer still stands…….if you want to contact me you can send me a tweet @StatsInTheWild.
Cheers.
NFL Chernoff faces
Here are some Chernoff faces through week 16 of the 2011 NFL season. From the graph there seems to be two classes of elite NFL teams: 1) tall skinny faces with brownish hair and 2) short, wider faces with green hair.
The first group represents teams with mainly passing offenses who score a lot of points, but also get a lot of points scored against them. These teams are Detroit, New England, New Orleans, and Green Bay.
The other group relies more heavily on running offenses and a stingy defense to earn their wins. These teams are Houston, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and San Francisco.
If you look at the 2010 Chernoff faces from last year at the end of the season, you’ll notice that Green Bay has moved from being a team that won with great defense to a team that is now winning with a highly productive offense. You should also notice that the two super bowl teams from last year, Pittsburgh and Green Bay, are located in the area of the graph that I defined as group 2.
Finally, one of the things I find most amazing about both of these graphs from 2010 and 2011 is that they demonstrate very clearly just how many penalties the Raiders are committing. You’d think they would try to improve upon this from one year to the next, but I guess it’s just part of their “style” where, here, “style” means being one of the worst franchises of the decade.
Cheers.
Stats in the Wild 
