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summary(cars)

##      speed           dist    
##  Min.   : 4.0   Min.   :  2  
##  1st Qu.:12.0   1st Qu.: 26  
##  Median :15.0   Median : 36  
##  Mean   :15.4   Mean   : 43  
##  3rd Qu.:19.0   3rd Qu.: 56  
##  Max.   :25.0   Max.   :120

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plot(cars)

Each pair of quadrilaterals represents one hand of the punto banco version of Baccarat. The length, width, and color of each shape is determined by the value of each of the two hands. Larger numbers appear closer to red/orange while lower colors appear more blue. The transparency of each losing hand is controlled by the difference in the values of the two competing hands. Baccarat hands were simulated using the statistical programming language R resulting in this beautiful representation of the classic high-roller casino game.

More aRt

Cheers.

Updated: November 21, 2013

Pro: The rankings are based on how a team performs and accounts for how many points they would be expected to score based on their statistical output such as rushing yards, passing yards, etc.  This ranking considers past seasons statistics with heavier weights placed on games that are more recent.  This ranking is the more predictive of the two.

Retro: This ranking only considers strength of schedule and the actual outcome of games in 2013.  This is a ranking of who actually has had the best season.

SOS: Is strength of schedule.

Week 11

So, big moves in the NFC- Carolina’s win was huge, as they’re in the driver’s seat now. The NFC East and North are where the races are in the Senior Circuit (that’s a thing in football, right?)

In the NFC North, the Lions and Packers took a page right out of the AFC second WC spot chasers by losing to terrible teams (the Steelers and Giants respectively.)  The Lions still have the easiest schedule of the Bears/Packers/Lions group, as they only play two more wining teams (Packers and Eagles), whereas the Packers have the Lions, Cowboys and Bears and the Bears have the Cowboys, Eagles and Packers. Of course, this analysis requires the you to ignore the fact that the Eagles and Cowboys are the Eagles and Cowboys.

The Niners seem to have decided to suck, as they have a less than .5 probability now as do the Cowboys. The Niners have a rougher road ahead, since they won’t win their division whereas the Cowboys can still win (ed.- The Niners are still the current 5 seed in the NFC playoff race but because of the division race being out of reach, the Cowboys have a slightly rosier outlook according to the formula we use.) But that means those team need to stop being losers. Good luck, guys!

Over in the race to be the crappiest team in the playoffs, aka the second AFC Wild Card team, the Dolphins decided they’d win, while literally every other team that has any kind of shot at taking the spot losing. So… um… I can’t wait to see which team gets to lose to either the Chiefs or Broncos the three seed (right now the Pats- h/t crcalpha) in round one.

Full Rankings

Well, that was an interesting week. The Cowboys loss to the Saints paired with the Eagles win over the Packers shook up the playoff races a bit. The Cowboys and Eagles are now almost tied in playoff probability, while the Packers now are behind the Lions. Meanwhile, the Saints win keeps them ahead of the Panthers, who have been charging towards a playoff spot. So, the take home message of last week is “what a bloody mess the NFC East is.”

Speaking of messes how about this race for the sixth AFC spot? It ain’t often that the biggest win comes from not playing, but them Jets and Browns, sitting idle for the bye really, really benefited from an atrocious week from their competitors. The Titans losing to the Jaguars, the Chargers dropping their second straight, and the Dolphins losing to the woeful Buccaneers. The Ravens got a bump from a win over the Bengals, the only question for Baltimore is whether it will be a serious turn around for the Ravens or just a dead cat bounce from all the other sucking going on in the AFC Wild Card race.

In terms of the overall picture, this week was good for people who want to see actual races. As, in terms of the numbers, we went from one real race (NFC North) to two (now the NFC East- Seriously, look at the change in the NFC East graph there!). And by race, I  actually mean divisions where whoever loses will sit out (obviously, the AFC West and NFC South are in play, but the losers will still probably be making the playoffs.) The Eagles/Cowboys, and the Packers/Lions/Bears all could be sitting on keisters come January. Mathematically, the 49ers are also on the bubble, but right now, they’re better off than the rest of those jokers, especially since the Saints represent one of only two winning teams they have on their schedule (the Seahawks, being the other.)

Looking forward to Week 11, Broncos/Chiefs doesn’t really affect the races, only who has a shot at home field advantage (as will their second game in week 13.) With the Cowboys on bye, the Eagles get to play poor, poor Washington and can take the reins in the NFC East. The Packers and Lions both play crappy teams, and if this season has a theme it’s “which team will fall on their face against the much worse team.” The Saints play the Niners while the Panthers play the Pats, so neither has that easy of a game ahead of them. The Jets get the Bills, so they should win, and probably won’t. The Browns play their division leaders, so I assume they’ll lose. The Titans play the Colts, so that won’t be easy either.

So, for the betting public, bet on teams that seem good to lose against the teams that should not win. Unless this week, the teams that should win do win. Then bet that way. Or be extra safe, and bet on both teams. YOU LITERALLY CANNOT LOSE THAT WAY!