Category Archives: Sports
Final NFL rankings – 2/9/2012
I was looking back at my NFL rankings over the past few months, and I found something interesting in my week 16 rankings. I actually had the NY Giants ranked higher than San Francisco.
Anyway, below are my final 2011-2012 NFL rankings.
Rankings updated as of 2/9/2012; Records updated as of 2/9/2012; CHFF rankings as of 12/28/2011
| Team | Rank | Change | Record | CHFF Rank |
| Green Bay | 1 | ↑ | 15-2 | 1 |
| New England | 2 | ↓ | 15-4 | 3 |
| Pittsburgh | 3 | – | 12-5 | 6 |
| Baltimore | 4 | – | 13-5 | 5 |
| New Orleans | 5 | ↑ | 14-4 | 2 |
| Atlanta | 6 | ↓ | 10-7 | 11 |
| NY Giants | 7 | ↑↑ | 13-7 | 10 |
| NY Jets | 8 | ↓ | 8-8 | 15 |
| Chicago | 9 | ↓ | 8-8 | 23 |
| San Francisco | 10 | – | 14-4 | 4 |
| Philadelphia | 11 | ↑ | 8-8 | 12 |
| San Diego | 12 | ↑ | 8-8 | 18 |
| Detroit | 13 | ↓↓ | 10-7 | 8 |
| Kansas City | 14 | ↑↑↑ | 7-9 | 26 |
| Oakland | 15 | ↓ | 8-8 | 14 |
| Tennessee | 16 | ↑↑↑↑↑↑ | 9-7 | 20 |
| Tampa Bay | 17 | ↓↓ | 4-12 | 31 |
| Houston | 18 | ↑ | 10-7 | 7 |
| Dallas | 19 | ↑↑ | 8-8 | 13 |
| Miami | 20 | ↓↓ | 6-10 | 22 |
| Seattle | 21 | ↓ | 7-9 | 19 |
| Denver | 22 | ↑↑ | 9-9 | 16 |
| Jacksonville | 23 | ↑↑↑↑↑↑ | 5-11 | 29 |
| Cincinnati | 24 | ↓↓↓↓↓↓↓↓ | 9-8 | 9 |
| Indianapolis | 25 | – | 2-14 | 30 |
| Arizona | 26 | ↑↑ | 8-8 | 21 |
| Buffalo | 27 | ↓↓↓↓ | 6-10 | 24 |
| Washington | 28 | ↑↑ | 5-11 | 25 |
| Minnesota | 29 | ↓↓↓ | 3-13 | 28 |
| St. Louis | 30 | ↑↑ | 2-14 | 32 |
| Cleveland | 31 | ↓↓↓↓ | 4-12 | 27 |
| Carolina | 32 | ↓ | 6-10 | 17 |
BCS: My offer still stands…….if you want to contact me you can send me a tweet @StatsInTheWild.
Cheers.
NCAA Basketball Rankings – 2/6/2012
Rankings as of 11:05am on 2/6/2012. Sagarin Ratings for games though 2/5/2012. AP Poll as of 1/30/2012. (It’s 11:11 am on Monday and the AP poll isn’t out yet. What takes these guys so long?)
Previous rankings are here.
Two new teams this week: Murray St. and New Mexico. Murray St. is in the SITW top 25 for the first time this season, whereas New Mexico has been bouncing in and out all season. Murray St. finally gets into the top 25 at 23-0. It takes a lot to crack the top 25 when you’re playing in the Ohio Valley Conference.
Vanderbilt and Gonzaga drop out of the top 25. Vanderbilt falls out after losing both of it’s games this week (at Arkansas and at Florida) and Gonzaga drops out after a loss to BYU.
(Note: The Missouri Valley Conference will now be represented by red. In order for the Pac-12 to earn back their color, they will need to get a team in the top 25 and have all the MVC teams fall out of the top 25. Until that happens, Pac-12 teams will be listed in the “other” category.)
Breakdown by conference: 3, 4, 6, 3, 0, 2, 3, 2, 2
ACC Big East Big Ten Big 12 Pac 12 SEC MWC MVC Other
| Team | Rank | Change | Record | AP | Sagarin |
| Syracuse | 1 | – | 23-1 | 2 | 3 |
| Baylor | 2 | ↑1 | 21-2 | 6 | 9 |
| Kentucky | 3 | ↑1 | 23-1 | 1 | 2 |
| Ohio St. | 4 | ↓2 | 20-3 | 3 | 1 |
| Duke | 5 | – | 19-4 | 7 | 11 |
| Missouri | 6 | ↑2 | 21-2 | 4 | 5 |
| Michigan St. | 7 | ↓1 | 18-5 | 9 | 6 |
| North Carolina | 8 | ↑5 | 20-3 | 5 | 7 |
| Creighton | 9 | ↓2 | 21-3 | 13 | 17 |
| Kansas | 10 | – | 18-5 | 8 | 4 |
| Marquette | 11 | ↓2 | 19-5 | 15 | 16 |
| Georgetown | 12 | ↑6 | 18-4 | 14 | 13 |
| Wisconsin | 13 | ↓2 | 18-6 | 19 | 8 |
| San Diego St. | 14 | ↑2 | 20-3 | 17 | 47 |
| Indiana | 15 | ↓3 | 18-6 | 20 | 10 |
| St. Mary’s-CA | 16 | ↓1 | 22-2 | 18 | 21 |
| Florida | 17 | ↑6 | 19-4 | 12 | 12 |
| UNLV | 18 | ↓4 | 21-4 | 11 | 14 |
| Wichita St. | 19 | ↑2 | 20-4 | 30 | 15 |
| Louisville | 20 | ↓1 | 18-5 | 27 | 24 |
| Michigan | 21 | ↓4 | 17-7 | 23 | 29 |
| Illinois | 22 | ↓2 | 16-7 | 38 | 44 |
| Virginia | 23 | ↓1 | 18-4 | 16 | 22 |
| Murray St. | 24 | NR | 23-0 | 10 | 45 |
| New Mexico | 25 | NR | 19-4 | NR | 18 |
26-35: Southern Miss, Mississippi St., Gonzaga, Florida St., UConn, Vanderbilt, Iowa St., Alabama, Temple, Minnesota
BCS: My offer still stands…….if you want to contact me you can send me a tweet @StatsInTheWild.
Cheers.
A rules question about Super Bowl squares
I just came across the article “A Statistician Shares How To Pick Your Super Bowl Pool Like A Champ” at businessinsider.com. The author of the article, Jill Krasny, asked edgehogs.com statistician, William Briggs, for some advice:
“You want to pick the scores that are most likely to happen, and look at historical information about how score differentials (i.e., pairings) are most realized,” Briggs said. “You shouldn’t pick squares out of the blue that happen infrequently.”
Then she offers this note:
Note: Some people pick the labels on the rows and columns only after all the boxes have been bought, making the game more random. If your office does it this way, and not all do, these statistics will still help you figure your chance of winning.
I would argue that a fundamental rule of the Super Bowl squares game is that you pick a square BEFORE the numbers have been placed on the grid. Instead of saying “Some people” in her note, she should say “Almost all people.” (Am I wrong about this? I’ve never, ever seen the numbers on the board before the squares are filled in.)
The article is still of some use, though, as you get some idea of what your chances of winning are after you get your numbers. Of course, the whole premise that the article was written on (you get to choose your numbers) is almost never true.
Finally, they looked at the last 2,822 NFL games, but if you’re interested in complete results for over 14,000 games in a pretty heat map grid format, I’ve compiled that here.
Go Pats.
Cheers.
A Tale of Two Bradys: It was the best of his games; it was the worst of his games
Here is an article I wrote for Significance Magazine about Tom Brady and the Super Bowl called “A Tale of Two Bradys: It was the best of his games; it was the worst of his games.”
Go Pats.
Cheers.
Super Bowl Squares
I received an email this morning from a friend: “Is there any sort of a statistical breakdown for which are the best numbers to have in a Super Bowl squares pool (for entertainment purposes only)?”
Now, if my friend were going to use this information to gamble, it would be highly unethical. However, since he clearly stated that it was for “entertainment purposes only,” I feel that I can conduct a study with a clear conscience.
If he had wanted to gamble on it, here is a quick explanation of how that usually takes place. (According to that website: “Basically, if you are at a party where you don’t have betting squares you are a Communist.”)
Anyway, using data from football-reference.com I created a ten by ten frequency table (using R, of course) of exactly how many times each outcome has occurred in the history of the NFL. You can find the graph here.
Somethings to note:
- 2-2 is the worst square by far. It’s only happened 5 times in the history of the league. The fair odds for this square are over 2800-to-1.
- The best squares are, no surprise, 7-0 and 0-7, occurring 581 and 577 times, respectively.
- The other great squares to have are in order, 0-3, 0-4, 4-7, and 7-4. All of these have occurred over 480 times each.
- These 6 outcomes (7-0, 0-7, 0-3, 0-4, 4-7, and 7-4) account for almost 23% of all the NFL games ever played.
Cheers.
NCAA Basketball Rankings – 1/30/2012
Rankings as of 10:23am on 1/30/2012. Sagarin Ratings for games though 1/30/2012. AP Poll as of 1/30/2012.
Previous rankings are here.
Moving into the top 25 were Vanderbilt, Florida, Virginia, and Louisville. They replaced Seton Hall, UConn, Minnesota, and Kansas St. who all dropped out of the top 25.
Breakdown by conference: 3, 4, 6, 3, 0, 3, 2, 2, 2
ACC Big East Big Ten Big 12 Pac 12 SEC MWC MVC Other
| Team | Rank | Change | Record | AP | Sagarin |
| Syracuse | 1 | – | 22-1 | 2 | 3 |
| Ohio St. | 2 | ↑1 | 19-3 | 3 | 1 |
| Baylor | 3 | ↓1 | 19-2 | 6 | 9 |
| Kentucky | 4 | ↑1 | 21-1 | 1 | 2 |
| Duke | 5 | ↑1 | 18-3 | 7 | 10 |
| Michigan St. | 6 | ↑2 | 17-4 | 9 | 5 |
| Creighton | 7 | ↑3 | 20-2 | 13 | 16 |
| Missouri | 8 | ↓4 | 19-2 | 4 | 8 |
| Marquette | 9 | ↑2 | 18-4 | 15 | 14 |
| Kansas | 10 | ↓2 | 17-4 | 8 | 4 |
| Wisconsin | 11 | ↑2 | 17-5 | 19 | 6 |
| Indiana | 12 | ↓3 | 17-5 | 20 | 11 |
| North Carolina | 13 | ↑5 | 18-3 | 5 | 7 |
| UNLV | 14 | ↑3 | 20-3 | 11 | 13 |
| St. Mary’s-CA | 15 | ↑6 | 21-2 | 18 | 18 |
| San Diego St. | 16 | ↓2 | 18-3 | 17 | 44 |
| Michigan | 17 | ↓1 | 17-4 | 23 | 33 |
| Georgetown | 18 | ↓6 | 16-4 | 14 | 17 |
| Louisville | 19 | ↑8 | 17-5 | 27 | 28 |
| Illinois | 20 | ↓5 | 15-6 | 38 | 42 |
| Wichita St. | 21 | ↓2 | 18-4 | 30 | 15 |
| Virginia | 22 | ↑8 | 17-3 | 16 | 20 |
| Florida | 23 | ↑8 | 17-4 | 12 | 12 |
| Vanderbilt | 24 | ↑7 | 16-5 | 25 | 31 |
| Gonzaga | 25 | ↓2 | 17-3 | 24 | 29 |
26-35: Minnesota, Mississippi St., New Mexico, Purdue, Southern Miss, UConn, Kansas St., Murray St., Seton Hall, Alabama
BCS: My offer still stands…….if you want to contact me you can send me a tweet @StatsInTheWild.
Cheers.
NCAA Basketball Rankings – 1/23/2012
Rankings as of 8:26am on 1/23/2012. Sagarin Ratings for games though 1/23/2012. AP Poll as of 1/23/2012.
Previous rankings are here.
(Note: The Missouri Valley Conference will now be represented by red. In order for the Pac-12 to earn back their color, they will need to get a team in the top 25 and have all the MVC teams fall out of the top 25. Until that happens, Pac-12 teams will be listed in the “other” category.)
Breakdown by conference: 2, 5, 7, 4, 0, 1, 2, 2, 2
ACC Big East Big Ten Big 12 Pac 12 SEC MWC MVC Other
| Team | Rank | Change | Record | AP | Sagarin |
| Syracuse | 1 | – | 20-1 | 3 | 4 |
| Baylor | 2 | – | 17-2 | 6 | 9 |
| Ohio St. | 3 | – | 17-3 | 4 | 1 |
| Missouri | 4 | ↑4 | 18-1 | 2 | 5 |
| Kentucky | 5 | ↑4 | 19-1 | 1 | 3 |
| Duke | 6 | ↓2 | 16-3 | 8 | 10 |
| Kansas | 7 | ↑3 | 16-3 | 5 | 2 |
| Michigan St. | 8 | ↓3 | 16-4 | 10 | 6 |
| Indiana | 9 | ↓2 | 16-4 | 16 | 11 |
| Creighton | 10 | ↑4 | 18-2 | 15 | 17 |
| Marquette | 11 | ↑5 | 16-4 | 17 | 15 |
| Georgetown | 12 | ↑5 | 16-3 | 9 | 14 |
| Wisconsin | 13 | ↑2 | 16-5 | 25 | 8 |
| San Diego St. | 14 | ↑4 | 17-2 | 13 | 42 |
| Illinois | 15 | ↓9 | 15-5 | 33 | 41 |
| Michigan | 16 | ↓5 | 15-5 | 20 | 39 |
| UNLV | 17 | ↑4 | 18-3 | 12 | 12 |
| North Carolina | 18 | ↑2 | 16-3 | 7 | 7 |
| Wichita St. | 19 | ↑6 | 17-3 | 31 | 13 |
| Seton Hall | 20 | ↓8 | 15-4 | NR | 33 |
| St. Mary’s-CA | 21 | NR | 19-2 | 21 | 22 |
| UConn | 22 | ↓9 | 14-5 | 24 | 37 |
| Gonzaga | 23 | NR | 16-3 | 27 | 27 |
| Minnesota | 24 | NR | 15-5 | NR | 45 |
| Kansas St. | 25 | NR | 14-4 | 22 | 18 |
26-35: Mississippi St., Louisville, Purdue, West Virginia, Virginia, Vanderbilt, Florida, Alabama, Murray St., Cincinnati
BCS: My offer still stands…….if you want to contact me you can send me a tweet @StatsInTheWild.
Cheers.
NFL Conference Championship Games
I didn’t post picks form last weekend, but I would have chosen New England, Baltimore, New Orleans, and Green Bay for a record of 2-2 this past week.
-I’m going to quote myself and re-post this point (from here) because it seems very relevant:
“Last year there were 2 teams that averaged over 23 points on offense and under 18 points on defense. They were the Green Bay Packers and the Pittsburgh Steelers who ultimately met in the Super Bowl. This year there are three teams that meet this criteria: San Francisco 49ers, Baltimore Ravens, and Houston Texans. So, I guess I’m taking the 49ers over the Ravens in the Super Bowl.”
Of course, based on my rankings, right now, I’m picking San Francisco over New England in the Super Bowl.
-My super bowl picks based on my rankings at the beginning of the season was New England over Atlanta. And my pick based on my “gut” was Tampa Bay over Baltimore.
Record: 4-4
✓=Correct Pick; ✗=Incorrect Pick
| Round | Teams | Predicted Winner | Outcome | |
| Con | NYG at SF | San Francisco (55.1%) | ✗ |
|
| Con | Bal at NE | New England (52.1%) | ✓ |
|
| Div | NYG at GB | Green Bay (61.3%) | ✗ |
|
| Div | Hou at Bal | Baltimore (54.1%) | ✓ |
|
| Div | NO at SF | New Orleans (51.0%) | ✗ |
|
| Div | Den at NE | New England (56.8%) | ✓ |
|
| WC | Cin at Hou | Houston (51.3%) | ✓ |
|
| WC | Det at NO | New Orleans (57.9%) | ✓ | |
| WC | Atl at NYG | Atlanta (55.2%) | ✗ |
|
| WC | Pit at Den | Pittsburgh (65.6%) | ✗ |
Cheers.
NCAA Basketball Rankings – 1/16/2012
Rankings as of 3:05pm on 1/16/2012. Sagarin Ratings for games though 1/15/2012. AP Poll as of 1/16/2012.
Previous rankings are here.
Three new teams this week: Marquette, New Mexico, and Wichita State. Marquette and New Mexico return to the top 25 after a week off, whereas Wichita State makes its top 25 debut in the StatsInTheWild Top 25 NCAA Basketball rankings. The three teams that dropped out of the top 25 this week are Kansas State, Louisville, and Minnesota. Wisconsin’s victory over Purdue caused them both to move ten spots in opposite directions with Wisconsin climbing and Purdue falling.
(Note: The Missouri Valley Conference will now be represented by red. In order for the Pac-12 to earn back their color, they will need to get a team in the top 25 and have all the MVC teams fall out of the top 25. Until that happens, Pac-12 teams will be listed in the “other” category.)
Breakdown by conference: 2, 5, 8, 3, 0, 2, 3, 2
ACC Big East Big Ten Big 12 Pac 12 SEC MWC MVC Other
| Team | Rank | Change | Record | AP | Sagarin |
| Syracuse | 1 | – | 19-0 | 1 | 1 |
| Baylor | 2 | ↑1 | 17-0 | 3 | 3 |
| Ohio St. | 3 | ↑1 | 16-3 | 6 | 2 |
| Duke | 4 | ↑3 | 15-2 | 4 | 7 |
| Michigan St. | 5 | – | 15-3 | 9 | 8 |
| Illinois | 6 | – | 15-3 | 22 | 30 |
| Indiana | 7 | ↓5 | 15-3 | 11 | 9 |
| Missouri | 8 | ↑3 | 14-3 | 5 | 5 |
| Kentucky | 9 | ↑1 | 17-1 | 2 | 4 |
| Kansas | 10 | ↑2 | 14-3 | 7 | 6 |
| Michigan | 11 | ↓3 | 14-4 | 20 | 33 |
| Seton Hall | 12 | ↓3 | 15-3 | 28 | 25 |
| UConn | 13 | ↑6 | 14-3 | 13 | 28 |
| Creighton | 14 | ↑9 | 16-2 | 19 | 15 |
| Wisconsin | 15 | ↑10 | 14-5 | 27 | 13 |
| Marquette | 16 | NR | 14-4 | 21 | 18 |
| Georgetown | 17 | ↓4 | 14-3 | 10 | 12 |
| San Diego St. | 18 | ↑6 | 15-2 | 16 | 39 |
| Northwestern | 19 | ↓1 | 12-5 | 39 | 38 |
| North Carolina | 20 | ↓5 | 15-3 | 8 | 10 |
| UNLV | 21 | ↓4 | 16-3 | 14 | 11 |
| Alabama | 22 | ↓1 | 13-4 | 34 | 16 |
| New Mexico | 23 | NR | 15-2 | 29 | 29 |
| Purdue | 24 | ↓10 | 13-5 | 22 | 32 |
| Wichita St. | 25 | NR | 15-3 | 35 | 17 |
26-35: Louisville, Miss State, Minnesota, Virginia, St. Mary’s-CA, Vanderbilt, Cincinnati, Gonzaga, Colorado State, West Virginia
BCS: My offer still stands…….if you want to contact me you can send me a tweet @StatsInTheWild.
Cheers.
Stats in the Wild 
