Republican presidential debate, Obama addressing the nation, AND the start of the NFL season. It’s almost too much to handle.

Before we get to any NFL predictions, I’ll make a presidential prediction.  Mitt Romney is going to win the Republican nomination.  I don’t care what Perry’s poll numbers are right now.  I don’t think Republican’s will vote for a guy who’s first google auto-complete term is “gay”.  (Maybe I under-estimate Republican’s tolerance, but then again, maybe I don’t.)

Anyway, I’ve been toying with the idea of simulating the NFL season for a little while now (I did a bit of this last year, later in the season.) This year I’ve done it before any games have been played, so we’ll see how this model works out. it’s a pretty simply model and uses only data from the 2010-2011 regular season and playoffs.  Using that data, I used a logistic regression model to model the probability that one team beats another team.  Then I simulated the upcoming season 5000 times.

Let’s begin with some pictures.  The first has nothing to do with the simulations, but it’s interesting.  It also give me a chance to quote myself.  So, here is a plot of some Chernoff faces based on the final 2010 NFL regular season team statistics.  (I posted about this before here)

My comments from before:

The face represents the offense and the defense is represented by hair. The size of the nose indicates sacks, the ears indicate turnovers (ear width is interceptions; ear height is forced fumbles).  The eyes indicate penalties and, finally, the size of the mouth indicates wins with a smiling face if the team made the playoffs (a really nice touch, if you ask me.)  The face at the bottom right indicates the league leader.

Some observations on the NFL faces:  The two superbowl teams last year (Pittsburgh and Green Bay) are both located at the bottom of the graph and there faces look very, very similar.  San Diego looks similar to to both Green Bay and Pittsburgh (similar face, nose, eyes, and hair), but the big differences are the ears and, of course, the San Diego face is frowning.  Another thing that pops out at me is how similar Houston and New England look to each other.  They have very similar face shape, eyes, and hair.  The big differences are the nose and ears (sacks and turnovers).

Here is a graph with 32 side by side boxplots representing each of the NFL teams.  Each boxplot displays the distribution of the predicted number of wins for each team.  The teams are in order of the SITW power ranking (which means it’s mostly made up).  I have also included a red W for how many wins the team had last year, a green dollar sign for the over-under betting line, and a blue P indicating whether or not the team made the playoffs last year.

Now it’s time for my Super Bowl favorites table.  The first column lists the team, the second column lists the my predicted odds to win the 2012 Super Bowl, and column three displays my predicted probability of each team making the playoffs.  One interesting thing to note in the first couple lines of this table is that Pittsburgh is more likely to win the Super Bowl than Baltimore, but Baltimore is more likely to make it to the playoffs than Pittsburgh.  This is a result of the NFL scheduling system.  Pittsburgh and Baltimore share the exact same schedule except for two games.  Those two differing games for Pittsburgh are New England and Kansas City whereas those two games for Baltimore are the New York Jets and the San Diego Chargers.  So what is happening is that because Pittsburgh has the chance to play New England in the regular season, in the simulations, when they do make it to the playoffs, they are most often making the playoffs as a 1 seed.  Baltimore is making the playoffs more often, but they are rarely (relative to Pittsburgh) simulated to be a 1 seed.  Remember, this table is ordered by odds that a team wins the Super Bowl; it’s not ordered best to worst team.

Below are some over-under bets that I like.  It seems like a lot of times forget that they are betting on the NFL. Every single team can beat every other team (See Miami beating New England as 13.5 point underdogs a few years ago.) Betters over value good teams and under value bad teams.  My two favorite bets here are Green Bay and Cincinnati.  Green Bay had a great run through the playoffs last year, but they still only won 10 regulars season games in 2010.  Add that to the fact that Aaron Rodgers is a concussion waiting to happen and winning 12 games seems like a difficult task.  Cincinnati has been blessed by the scheduling gods.  Not only did they finish fourth in their division last year earning them games against Denver and Buffalo they have also drawn the NFC west division giving them games against Arizona, Seattle, San Francisco, and St. Louis.  Then add to that two games against Cleveland and it’s not to hard to see 6+ wins in their future.  And think about this, they start their season Cleveland, Denver, San Francisco, and Buffalo.  Is it that far fetched that they start 4-0?  (Yes, it is that far fetched.  Just saying is all….)

Other bets that intrigue me.

And finally, let’s make some predictions that will ultimately prove to be way off.  But it is fun to try here is what the playoffs will look like.

The AFC.

I know, I know.  It’s boring and it’s exactly the same as last years AFC playoff teams down to the seeds.  But wait until you see my NFC picks!

NFC

Ok.  Those weren’t that exciting either.  At least I made a stand with Tampa Bay, right?

And now for my Super Bowl prediction.  Based solely on the numbers I am taking new England over Atlanta.  That’s wicked boring though.  So my gut is taking Tampa Bay over Baltimore 21-20.  And I’m still picking Mitt Romney.

Cheers.

Watson, an IBM computer, recently competed on Jeopardy, demoralizing his opponents Ken Jennings and Brad Rutter. (Jennings describes what it was like to lose the Watson here.) Really it was an uneven playing field from the start. For example, “Watson’s brain showcases several IBM technologies. The hardware is jammed into 10 refrigerator-sized racks filled with Power7 server blades. To be exact, there are 90 Power750 servers filled with four processors each — and each processor has 8 cores, for a total of 2,880 cores altogether.” (InformaWorld) That’s a lot of cores for our tiny human brains to compete against. Therefore, I am calling for an all computer Jeopardy tournament. Similar to the netflix prize, different organization could compete in a tournament pitting their algorithms against other organizations’ algorithms with the winner collecting a large cash prize and valuable free publicity and marketing. Just imagine IBM’s Watson competing against Google’s BrinPage and Microsoft’s Gates. That would be pretty intense.

Cheers.

14 week of the NFL Season are gone. 3 weeks remain.

There have been a few big changes in the projected playoff seeds. In the AFC, the Jets fall to a projected 6 seed and the Ravens take over the 5 seed. Also, Jacksonville and Kansas City change places with Jacksonville projected to be the three seed with Kansas City the 4 seed.
In the NFC, Green Bay is out and the Giants are in as the six seed.

Here are the updated SITW projected playoff seeds:
View the full rankings here.

Week 15 Playoff projections (through week 14):
Playoff Projections:
AFC Projected seeds (Expected Wins) [Probability they make playoffs]{Ranking}:
1. New England (13.6973)[1]{1}
2. Pittsburgh (12.5784) [.9999]{3}
3. Jacksonville (9.9711) [.8196]{13}
4. Kansas City (9.7525) [.6738]{16}
5. Baltimore (11.3688) [.9992]{4}
6. New York Jets (10.837) [.9088]{5}

NFC Projected seeds:
1. Atlanta (13.6973) [1]{2}
2. Philadelphia (11.2133) [.9151]{8}
3. Chicago (10.6212)[.9047]{10}
4. St. Louis (7.3868) [.5744]{22}
5. New Orleans (11.2239) [.9038]{6}
6. New York Giants (10.6128) [.6983]{12}

Cheers.

The interesting thing about these playoff projections are that Philadelphia is projected to be the 2 seed in the NFC over Chicago even though Chicago has 1 more win than them. Take a look at the rest of the Eagle’s schedule and then look at the Bear’s remaining schedule and it becomes very clear why these are the projections.

You can view the full rankings here.

Week 14 Playoff projections:
Playoff Projections:
AFC Projected seeds (Expected Wins) [Probability they make playoffs]{Ranking}:
1. New England (13.6874)[1]{2}
2. Pittsburgh (12.4096) [1]{3}
3. Kansas City (10.425) [.843]{15}
4. Jacksonville (9.518) [.7124]{14}
5. New York Jets (11.8408) [.9998]{4}
6. Baltimore (11.2332) [.9982]{5}

NFC Projected seeds:
1. Atlanta (13.6874) [1]{1}
2. Philadelphia (10.9962) [.8438]{9}
3. Chicago (10.587)[.8484]{10}
4. St. Louis (7.4758) [.477]{23}
5. New Orleans (11.091) [.8424]{6}
6. Green Bay (10.3086) [.7648]{7}

My Rankings: (Wins)
Teams Wins
1 Atlanta (10)
2 NewEngland (10)
3 Pittsburgh (9)
4 NYJets (9)
5 Baltimore (8)
6 NewOrleans (9)
7 GreenBay (8)
8 TampaBay (7)
9 Philadelphia (8)
10 Chicago (9)
11 Miami (6)
12 Cleveland (5)
13 NYGiants (8)
14 Jacksonville (7)
15 KansasCity (8)
16 Tennessee (5)
17 Indianapolis (6)
18 Minnesota (5)
19 SanDiego (6)
20 Oakland (6)
21 Washington (5)
22 Seattle (6)
23 StLouis (6)
24 Houston (5)
25 Dallas (4)
26 SanFrancisco (4)
27 Denver (3)
28 Arizona (3)
29 Cincinnati (2)
30 Buffalo (2)
31 Detroit (2)
32 Carolina (1)

Cheers.

First off, what a joke the NFC West is.
Although, I am excited about rooting for a 6 win team to make the playoffs and get a first round home playoff game. Nice work NFL.

A thought about being the 2 seed: I think in a year like this there may be some advantage to being the 2 seed rather than the 1 seed.

Let’s look at the AFC. Let’s assume that my playoff projections hold true. The wild card winners seeds will either be (3,4), (3,5), (4,6), or (5,6). After the first round of playoffs, the one seed plays the lowest remaining seed. This has to be the 4, 5, or 6 seed. So they are going to have to play Indianapolis, New York Jets or Pittsburgh. I would argue that all three of these teams are better than the Kansas City Chiefs. The two seed has to play either the 3, 4, or 5 seed. They are guaranteed to not have to play the Steelers, and they avoid the Jets in all scenarios except where both the Jets and Steelers win. This looks to me like an easier path to the AFC championship game.

Week 12 Playoff projections:
Playoff Projections:
AFC Projected seeds (Expected Wins) [Probability they win the Super Bowl]{Ranking}:
1. New England (12.92)[.199]{2}
2. Baltimore (11.90) [.12]{5}
3. Kansas City (10.05) [.0008]{15}
4. Indianapolis (8.88) [.0004]{14}
5. New York Jets (12.45) [.1292]{3}
6. Pittsburgh (11.77) [.1162]{4}

NFC Projected seeds:
1. Atlanta (13.45) [.349]{1}
2. Philadelphia (10.86) [.0208]{10}
3. Chicago (10.49) [.0114]{11}
4. Seattle (7.29) [0]{22}
5. New Orleans (10.86) [.0254]{6}
6. Green Bay (10.15) [.0138]{8}

My Rankings: (Wins)
1 Atlanta (9)
2 NewEngland (9)
3 NYJets (9)
4 Pittsburgh (8)
5 Baltimore (8)
6 NewOrleans (8)
7 TampaBay (7)
8 GreenBay (7)
9 Miami (6)
10 Philadelphia (7)
11 Chicago (8)
12 Tennessee (5)
13 NYGiants (7)
14 Indianapolis (6)
15 KansasCity (7)
16 Cleveland (4)
17 SanDiego (6)
18 Jacksonville (6)
19 Washington (5)
20 Minnesota (4)
21 Oakland (5)
22 Seattle (5)
23 Houston (5)
24 StLouis (5)
25 SanFrancisco (4)
26 Denver (3)
27 Dallas (3)
28 Arizona (3)
29 Buffalo (2)
30 Cincinnati (2)
31 Detroit (2)
32 Carolina (1)

Cheers.

Playoff Picture:

AFC
1. NewEngland
2. Pittsburgh
3. Indianapolis
4. Kansas City
5. NYJets
6. Baltimore

NFC
1. Atlanta
2. Philadelphia
3. GreenBay
4. Seattle
5. NewOrleans
6. TampaBay

Estimated Probabilities of making the playoffs/conference champion/super bowl champion:

AFC.Playoff.Teams

Baltimore Cleveland Denver Houston Indianapolis

0.9706 0.0002 0.0046 0.0024 0.6040

Jacksonville KansasCity Miami NewEngland NYJets

0.3584 0.6874 0.0282 0.9950 0.9840

Oakland Pittsburgh SanDiego Tennessee
0.0830 0.9568 0.2334 0.0920

NFC.Playoff.Teams

Arizona Atlanta Chicago GreenBay NewOrleans

0.1446 0.9996 0.5944 0.8642 0.7922

NYGiants Philadelphia SanFrancisco Seattle StLouis

0.1460 0.9740 0.0332 0.6892 0.1338

TampaBay Washington
0.5752 0.0536

AFC.Champion

Baltimore Indianapolis Jacksonville KansasCity Miami

0.1668 0.0182 0.0046 0.0054 0.0004

NewEngland NYJets Pittsburgh SanDiego Tennessee

0.3490 0.2510 0.2018 0.0012 0.0016

NFC.Champion

Arizona Atlanta Chicago GreenBay NewOrleans

0.0002 0.5206 0.0246 0.0926 0.0704

NYGiants Philadelphia SanFrancisco Seattle StLouis

0.0042 0.2354 0.0002 0.0062 0.0004
TampaBay Washington
0.0434 0.0018
 

SB.Champion

Atlanta Baltimore Chicago GreenBay Indianapolis

0.2730 0.0854 0.0046 0.0308 0.0048

Jacksonville KansasCity Miami NewEngland NewOrleans

0.0010 0.0006 0.0004 0.2220 0.0214

NYGiants NYJets Philadelphia Pittsburgh SanDiego
0.0012 0.1452 0.0832 0.1116 0.0002

Seattle TampaBay Tennessee Washington
0.0014 0.0124 0.0006 0.0002

Cheers.

This was forwarded to me by S.J. It’s quite a long journey from the stuff in this video to some of the present day statistics like spatial aggregate fielding evaluation (S.A.F.E).

“[Recorded: circa 1959] – “The Electronic Coach” is a short film made by IBM describing the use of computers in the management of a university basketball team. The film features computer science legend Don Knuth, then a senior at Case Institute of Technology. For all four of his undergraduate years at Case (1956-60), Knuth was manager of the basketball team and sought ways to improve his team’s play by analyzing a series of special statistics he captured during games. The scoring method was unusual in the weightings it gave to activities not necessarily associated with traditional coaching but Knuth’s insights into basketball, combined with his computerization of the reams of data he collected, helped Case’s coaching staff make their basketball team a winner. The computer used is an IBM 650. ”

Cheers.

Well there are 16 teams left and my bracket is in shambles.

Let’s review the predictions from last week.
My failures:
Two of my final four teams are gone (Villanova and Kansas) including my champion (Kansas) so I won’t win any office pools this year.

My triumphs:
-A lot of my predictions from my tournament preview came through including both of my predicted lower seed first round locks (Northern Iowa and Missouri).

-I had Northern Iowa in my top 25 . Certainly not higher than Kansas, but definitely a top 25 team.

-My model ranked Cornell 18th and I ignored it figuring it was a fluky part of the model. (Similar to how I have Oral Roberts ranked 8th and Sam Houston State ranked 2nd using the raw data.) I guess Cornell really is that good. This win over Wisconsin should shoot them up in my rankings when they come out tomorrow.

Some observations:
-Washington is really bad. They beat a mediocre Marquette team and then a New Mexico team that lost to San Diego State in its conference tournament. West Virginia is going to massacre Washington. (Note: Marquette lost 51-50 to DePaul this season. DePaul was 1-17 in the Big East. Yikes.)

-The Kentucky-Cornell game is going to be really interesting. Kentucky is loaded with super talented Freshman who are thinking about the NBA and millions of dollars and Cornell is stacked with seniors who are thinking about grad school next fall.

My picks:
-Kentucky over Cornell: Cornell keeps it close in the first half, but Kentucky’s superior talent takes over. They win by 10.
-West Virginia over Washington: West Virginia is going to kill them. I see them winning by 15-20 points.
-Duke over Purdue: This is an interesting match-up. Purdue had thoughts of a number 1 seed going into their conference tournament and they ended up with a 4. I’ll be interested to see how they play in this one.
-Baylor over Saint Mary’s: Baylor has beaten a 14 and an 11 seed. Saint Mary’s is a 10. I’m not sure what that means, but the total of the seed of Baylor’s first three opponents is 35. That has to be the highest total of a first three opponents, right? Anyway, this one will be close. Baylor by 3.
-Northern Iowa over Michigan State: I had Northern Iowa in top 25 at the beginning of the tournament and they are still there. I had Michigan State out of my top 25. Northern Iowa by 7. (Michigan State has made the Sweet Sixteen three years in a row.)
-Tennessee over Ohio State: How many games does Ohio State have to win in a row to convince me they are for real? 1 more. But I doubt it. Tennessee by 10.
-Syracuse over Butler: Syracuse by 5…..unless Shelvin Mack hits a million threes again. Then who knows.
-Kansas State over Xavier: Kansas State looks good. really good. (Note: Xavier has made the Sweet Sixteen three years in a row.)

Final Four picks:
Kentucky, Duke, Syracuse, and……(wait for it)…………Northern Iowa. Northern Iowa beat Kansas, surely they can beat Michigan State, and Ohio State or Tennessee, right?

Finals:
Syracuse vs Kentucky

Champion:
Kentucky 72-68

Can’t wait until next Monday when I get to see just how wrong I am again.

Cheers.