Super Bowl Squares
I received an email this morning from a friend: “Is there any sort of a statistical breakdown for which are the best numbers to have in a Super Bowl squares pool (for entertainment purposes only)?”
Now, if my friend were going to use this information to gamble, it would be highly unethical. However, since he clearly stated that it was for “entertainment purposes only,” I feel that I can conduct a study with a clear conscience.
If he had wanted to gamble on it, here is a quick explanation of how that usually takes place. (According to that website: “Basically, if you are at a party where you don’t have betting squares you are a Communist.”)
Anyway, using data from football-reference.com I created a ten by ten frequency table (using R, of course) of exactly how many times each outcome has occurred in the history of the NFL. You can find the graph here.
Somethings to note:
- 2-2 is the worst square by far. It’s only happened 5 times in the history of the league. The fair odds for this square are over 2800-to-1.
- The best squares are, no surprise, 7-0 and 0-7, occurring 581 and 577 times, respectively.
- The other great squares to have are in order, 0-3, 0-4, 4-7, and 7-4. All of these have occurred over 480 times each.
- These 6 outcomes (7-0, 0-7, 0-3, 0-4, 4-7, and 7-4) account for almost 23% of all the NFL games ever played.
Cheers.
NCAA Basketball Rankings – 1/30/2012
Rankings as of 10:23am on 1/30/2012. Sagarin Ratings for games though 1/30/2012. AP Poll as of 1/30/2012.
Previous rankings are here.
Moving into the top 25 were Vanderbilt, Florida, Virginia, and Louisville. They replaced Seton Hall, UConn, Minnesota, and Kansas St. who all dropped out of the top 25.
Breakdown by conference: 3, 4, 6, 3, 0, 3, 2, 2, 2
ACC Big East Big Ten Big 12 Pac 12 SEC MWC MVC Other
| Team | Rank | Change | Record | AP | Sagarin |
| Syracuse | 1 | – | 22-1 | 2 | 3 |
| Ohio St. | 2 | ↑1 | 19-3 | 3 | 1 |
| Baylor | 3 | ↓1 | 19-2 | 6 | 9 |
| Kentucky | 4 | ↑1 | 21-1 | 1 | 2 |
| Duke | 5 | ↑1 | 18-3 | 7 | 10 |
| Michigan St. | 6 | ↑2 | 17-4 | 9 | 5 |
| Creighton | 7 | ↑3 | 20-2 | 13 | 16 |
| Missouri | 8 | ↓4 | 19-2 | 4 | 8 |
| Marquette | 9 | ↑2 | 18-4 | 15 | 14 |
| Kansas | 10 | ↓2 | 17-4 | 8 | 4 |
| Wisconsin | 11 | ↑2 | 17-5 | 19 | 6 |
| Indiana | 12 | ↓3 | 17-5 | 20 | 11 |
| North Carolina | 13 | ↑5 | 18-3 | 5 | 7 |
| UNLV | 14 | ↑3 | 20-3 | 11 | 13 |
| St. Mary’s-CA | 15 | ↑6 | 21-2 | 18 | 18 |
| San Diego St. | 16 | ↓2 | 18-3 | 17 | 44 |
| Michigan | 17 | ↓1 | 17-4 | 23 | 33 |
| Georgetown | 18 | ↓6 | 16-4 | 14 | 17 |
| Louisville | 19 | ↑8 | 17-5 | 27 | 28 |
| Illinois | 20 | ↓5 | 15-6 | 38 | 42 |
| Wichita St. | 21 | ↓2 | 18-4 | 30 | 15 |
| Virginia | 22 | ↑8 | 17-3 | 16 | 20 |
| Florida | 23 | ↑8 | 17-4 | 12 | 12 |
| Vanderbilt | 24 | ↑7 | 16-5 | 25 | 31 |
| Gonzaga | 25 | ↓2 | 17-3 | 24 | 29 |
26-35: Minnesota, Mississippi St., New Mexico, Purdue, Southern Miss, UConn, Kansas St., Murray St., Seton Hall, Alabama
BCS: My offer still stands…….if you want to contact me you can send me a tweet @StatsInTheWild.
Cheers.
U.S. News: “Poll: Americans, 2-1, Fear Obama’s Re-election”…..well, not at all, actually.
I was listening to the radio this morning (Dennis and Callahan) and one of the callers to the show mentioned a U.S. News poll that found that American’s biggest fear in 2012, by a 2-1 margin, was the re-election of Barack Obama. Now, if you’re calling into a sports radio show, I’m not going to trust you; if you’re calling in to a sport radio show to talk about politics with Dennis and Callahan, I trust you even less. And I didn’t trust this guy’s “statistic” that nearly two-thirds of those polled were fearful of Obama being re-elected.
So when I got to work this morning, I looked up this poll. The article I believe the caller was referring to is this one by Paul Bedard complete with the headline “Poll: Americans, 2-1, Fear Obama’s Reelection”. The poll results cited in the article are as follows:
As we enter the presidential election year of 2012, what potential news event do you fear the most?
President Obama wins reelection 33%
Taxes will increase 31%
Iran will get a nuclear weapon 16%
Obama will lose reelection 16%
North Korea will attack South Korea 4%
I don’t know who looks at the results of this poll and takes away the headline “Americans, 2-1, Fear Obama’s Reelection”. That headline implies (intentionally?) that the question that was asked in the poll was “Do you fear Obama’s re-election” when, in fact, the question asked was “As we enter the presidential election year of 2012, what potential news event do you fear the most?”
These are entirely different questions and to draw the conclusion that “Americans, 2-1, Fear Obama’s Reelection” is, at best, unintentionally misleading. You could say “Americans, 2-1, cite Obama’s re-election as their number one fear,” but that is an entirely different statement. If you really want to know how many American’s fear Obama’s re-election, you need to ask that question in a well sampled poll, which this may or may not have been.
Regardless, there is no way to look at the results of this pool and honestly draw the conclusion that “Americans, 2-1, Fear Obama’s Reelection”. This is either a misunderstanding leading to a misleading headline or intentionally dishonest.
PS Regardless of your politics, how can anymore be more fearful of the 2012 presidential outcome or your taxes going up than of Iran getting a nuclear weapon. Maybe you’re annoyed or bothered that your taxes will go up, but do you fear an increase in taxes? Iran getting a nuclear weapon is more than just an annoyance or a bother.
Cheers.
NCAA Basketball Rankings – 1/23/2012
Rankings as of 8:26am on 1/23/2012. Sagarin Ratings for games though 1/23/2012. AP Poll as of 1/23/2012.
Previous rankings are here.
(Note: The Missouri Valley Conference will now be represented by red. In order for the Pac-12 to earn back their color, they will need to get a team in the top 25 and have all the MVC teams fall out of the top 25. Until that happens, Pac-12 teams will be listed in the “other” category.)
Breakdown by conference: 2, 5, 7, 4, 0, 1, 2, 2, 2
ACC Big East Big Ten Big 12 Pac 12 SEC MWC MVC Other
| Team | Rank | Change | Record | AP | Sagarin |
| Syracuse | 1 | – | 20-1 | 3 | 4 |
| Baylor | 2 | – | 17-2 | 6 | 9 |
| Ohio St. | 3 | – | 17-3 | 4 | 1 |
| Missouri | 4 | ↑4 | 18-1 | 2 | 5 |
| Kentucky | 5 | ↑4 | 19-1 | 1 | 3 |
| Duke | 6 | ↓2 | 16-3 | 8 | 10 |
| Kansas | 7 | ↑3 | 16-3 | 5 | 2 |
| Michigan St. | 8 | ↓3 | 16-4 | 10 | 6 |
| Indiana | 9 | ↓2 | 16-4 | 16 | 11 |
| Creighton | 10 | ↑4 | 18-2 | 15 | 17 |
| Marquette | 11 | ↑5 | 16-4 | 17 | 15 |
| Georgetown | 12 | ↑5 | 16-3 | 9 | 14 |
| Wisconsin | 13 | ↑2 | 16-5 | 25 | 8 |
| San Diego St. | 14 | ↑4 | 17-2 | 13 | 42 |
| Illinois | 15 | ↓9 | 15-5 | 33 | 41 |
| Michigan | 16 | ↓5 | 15-5 | 20 | 39 |
| UNLV | 17 | ↑4 | 18-3 | 12 | 12 |
| North Carolina | 18 | ↑2 | 16-3 | 7 | 7 |
| Wichita St. | 19 | ↑6 | 17-3 | 31 | 13 |
| Seton Hall | 20 | ↓8 | 15-4 | NR | 33 |
| St. Mary’s-CA | 21 | NR | 19-2 | 21 | 22 |
| UConn | 22 | ↓9 | 14-5 | 24 | 37 |
| Gonzaga | 23 | NR | 16-3 | 27 | 27 |
| Minnesota | 24 | NR | 15-5 | NR | 45 |
| Kansas St. | 25 | NR | 14-4 | 22 | 18 |
26-35: Mississippi St., Louisville, Purdue, West Virginia, Virginia, Vanderbilt, Florida, Alabama, Murray St., Cincinnati
BCS: My offer still stands…….if you want to contact me you can send me a tweet @StatsInTheWild.
Cheers.
Sanjay Srivastava Quote
“Our standard response to a paper in Science, Nature, or Psychological Science should be ‘wow, that’ll be really interesting if it replicates.'”- Sanjay Srivastava
Cheers.
NFL Conference Championship Games
I didn’t post picks form last weekend, but I would have chosen New England, Baltimore, New Orleans, and Green Bay for a record of 2-2 this past week.
-I’m going to quote myself and re-post this point (from here) because it seems very relevant:
“Last year there were 2 teams that averaged over 23 points on offense and under 18 points on defense. They were the Green Bay Packers and the Pittsburgh Steelers who ultimately met in the Super Bowl. This year there are three teams that meet this criteria: San Francisco 49ers, Baltimore Ravens, and Houston Texans. So, I guess I’m taking the 49ers over the Ravens in the Super Bowl.”
Of course, based on my rankings, right now, I’m picking San Francisco over New England in the Super Bowl.
-My super bowl picks based on my rankings at the beginning of the season was New England over Atlanta. And my pick based on my “gut” was Tampa Bay over Baltimore.
Record: 4-4
✓=Correct Pick; ✗=Incorrect Pick
| Round | Teams | Predicted Winner | Outcome | |
| Con | NYG at SF | San Francisco (55.1%) | ✗ |
|
| Con | Bal at NE | New England (52.1%) | ✓ |
|
| Div | NYG at GB | Green Bay (61.3%) | ✗ |
|
| Div | Hou at Bal | Baltimore (54.1%) | ✓ |
|
| Div | NO at SF | New Orleans (51.0%) | ✗ |
|
| Div | Den at NE | New England (56.8%) | ✓ |
|
| WC | Cin at Hou | Houston (51.3%) | ✓ |
|
| WC | Det at NO | New Orleans (57.9%) | ✓ | |
| WC | Atl at NYG | Atlanta (55.2%) | ✗ |
|
| WC | Pit at Den | Pittsburgh (65.6%) | ✗ |
Cheers.
NCAA Basketball Rankings – 1/16/2012
Rankings as of 3:05pm on 1/16/2012. Sagarin Ratings for games though 1/15/2012. AP Poll as of 1/16/2012.
Previous rankings are here.
Three new teams this week: Marquette, New Mexico, and Wichita State. Marquette and New Mexico return to the top 25 after a week off, whereas Wichita State makes its top 25 debut in the StatsInTheWild Top 25 NCAA Basketball rankings. The three teams that dropped out of the top 25 this week are Kansas State, Louisville, and Minnesota. Wisconsin’s victory over Purdue caused them both to move ten spots in opposite directions with Wisconsin climbing and Purdue falling.
(Note: The Missouri Valley Conference will now be represented by red. In order for the Pac-12 to earn back their color, they will need to get a team in the top 25 and have all the MVC teams fall out of the top 25. Until that happens, Pac-12 teams will be listed in the “other” category.)
Breakdown by conference: 2, 5, 8, 3, 0, 2, 3, 2
ACC Big East Big Ten Big 12 Pac 12 SEC MWC MVC Other
| Team | Rank | Change | Record | AP | Sagarin |
| Syracuse | 1 | – | 19-0 | 1 | 1 |
| Baylor | 2 | ↑1 | 17-0 | 3 | 3 |
| Ohio St. | 3 | ↑1 | 16-3 | 6 | 2 |
| Duke | 4 | ↑3 | 15-2 | 4 | 7 |
| Michigan St. | 5 | – | 15-3 | 9 | 8 |
| Illinois | 6 | – | 15-3 | 22 | 30 |
| Indiana | 7 | ↓5 | 15-3 | 11 | 9 |
| Missouri | 8 | ↑3 | 14-3 | 5 | 5 |
| Kentucky | 9 | ↑1 | 17-1 | 2 | 4 |
| Kansas | 10 | ↑2 | 14-3 | 7 | 6 |
| Michigan | 11 | ↓3 | 14-4 | 20 | 33 |
| Seton Hall | 12 | ↓3 | 15-3 | 28 | 25 |
| UConn | 13 | ↑6 | 14-3 | 13 | 28 |
| Creighton | 14 | ↑9 | 16-2 | 19 | 15 |
| Wisconsin | 15 | ↑10 | 14-5 | 27 | 13 |
| Marquette | 16 | NR | 14-4 | 21 | 18 |
| Georgetown | 17 | ↓4 | 14-3 | 10 | 12 |
| San Diego St. | 18 | ↑6 | 15-2 | 16 | 39 |
| Northwestern | 19 | ↓1 | 12-5 | 39 | 38 |
| North Carolina | 20 | ↓5 | 15-3 | 8 | 10 |
| UNLV | 21 | ↓4 | 16-3 | 14 | 11 |
| Alabama | 22 | ↓1 | 13-4 | 34 | 16 |
| New Mexico | 23 | NR | 15-2 | 29 | 29 |
| Purdue | 24 | ↓10 | 13-5 | 22 | 32 |
| Wichita St. | 25 | NR | 15-3 | 35 | 17 |
26-35: Louisville, Miss State, Minnesota, Virginia, St. Mary’s-CA, Vanderbilt, Cincinnati, Gonzaga, Colorado State, West Virginia
BCS: My offer still stands…….if you want to contact me you can send me a tweet @StatsInTheWild.
Cheers.
NCAA Basketball Rankings – 1/9/2012
Rankings as of 12:02am on 1/9/2012. Sagarin Ratings for games though 1/8/2012. AP Poll as of 1/9/2012.
Previous rankings are here.
Three new teams enter the rankings: Virginia, Alabama, and Creighton. They replace New Mexico, Minnesota, and Marquette. The biggest movers up were Kansas and Kentucky who moved up 12 spots to 12 and up 9 spots to 10, respectively. UConn and Wisconsin both fall 12 spots to 19 and 25, respectively. UConn is coming off back-to-back losses for the first time this year, and Wisconsin is in the midst of a three game losing streak.
Breakdown by conference: 3, 5, 8, 4, 0, 2, 2, 1
ACC Big East Big Ten Big 12 Pac 12 SEC MWC Other
| Team | Rank | Change | Record | AP | Sagarin |
| Syracuse | 1 | – | 17-0 | 1 | 1 |
| Indiana | 2 | ↑1 | 14-1 | 7 | 4 |
| Baylor | 3 | ↓1 | 15-0 | 4 | 9 |
| Ohio St. | 4 | ↑2 | 15-2 | 5 | 3 |
| Michigan St. | 5 | ↓1 | 14-2 | 6 | 5 |
| Illinois | 6 | ↑4 | 14-3 | 33 | 35 |
| Duke | 7 | ↓2 | 13-2 | 8 | 7 |
| Michigan | 8 | – | 12-3 | 13 | 27 |
| Seton Hall | 9 | ↑6 | 14-2 | 24 | 25 |
| Kentucky | 10 | ↑9 | 15-1 | 2 | 2 |
| Missouri | 11 | ↓2 | 14-1 | 9 | 10 |
| Kansas | 12 | ↑12 | 12-3 | 10 | 6 |
| Georgetown | 13 | ↑1 | 13-2 | 11 | 11 |
| Purdue | 14 | ↑4 | 13-4 | NR | 30 |
| North Carolina | 15 | ↑5 | 14-2 | 3 | 8 |
| Virginia | 16 | NR | 14-1 | 16 | 26 |
| UNLV | 17 | ↓1 | 16-2 | 12 | 12 |
| Northwestern | 18 | ↓7 | 11-4 | NR | 50 |
| UConn | 19 | ↓12 | 12-3 | 17 | 40 |
| Kansas St. | 20 | ↓3 | 12-2 | 18 | 13 |
| Alabama | 21 | NR | 12-3 | 27 | 14 |
| Louisville | 22 | – | 13-3 | 14 | 22 |
| Creighton | 23 | NR | 13-2 | 23 | 20 |
| San Diego St. | 24 | ↓3 | 13-2 | 22 | 34 |
| Wisconsin | 25 | ↓12 | 12-4 | 26 | 18 |
BCS: My offer still stands…….if you want to contact me you can send me a tweet @StatsInTheWild.
Cheers.
Stats In the Wild Card Weekend – SITW’s picks
Games start in a few hours minutes, and I wanted to post my picks before the games started. So here they are.
Some Notes:
-My preseason pick for the Super Bowl base on numbers was New England over Atlanta. That’s not crazy at all right now. My Super Bowl pick based on my gut was Tampa Bay over Baltimore. Well, half of that makes sense.
-Last year there were 2 teams that averaged over 23 points on offense and under 18 points on defense. They were the Green Bay Packers and the Pittsburgh Steelers who ultimately met in the Super Bowl. This year there are three teams that meet this criteria: San Francisco 49ers, Baltimore Ravens, and Houston Texans. So, I guess I’m taking the 49ers over the Ravens in the Super Bowl.
Record: 2-2
✓=Correct Pick; ✗=Incorrect Pick
| Round | Teams | Predicted Winner | Outcome | |
| WC | Cin at Hou | Houston (51.3%) | ✓ |
|
| WC | Det at NO | New Orleans (57.9%) | ✓ | |
| WC | Atl at NYG | Atlanta (55.2%) | ✗ |
|
| WC | Pit at Den | Pittsburgh (65.6%) | ✗ |
Cheers.
Stats in the Wild 
