Category Archives: Football
NFL preview
Season Preview
It’s almost here! Another season of grown men smashing their brains together for our entertainment. And entertained we will be.
So, let’s start at the end: which teams are most likely to be suffering life-lengthening (Not really) massive head injuries in February 2013 in New Orleans? I’m once again making a not so bold prediction and taking Green Bay over New England in the Super Bowl this year.
Some Comments
AFC
East
New England has the easier road to New Orleans of the two by playing the softest regular season schedule of any team this year. For starters, they play in the AFC east which features Buffalo, Miami, and the New York Jets. None of those teams had winning records last year, and they all failed to make the playoffs. The Patriots then go on to play the AFC South and the NFC West. The teams in these two divisions had a combined record of 56-72 last year. In fact, they play only 3 games all of 2012 against teams that had winning records in 2011. If they beat baltimore in week 3, they could very reasonably be 8-0 at their bye week. If they start the first half of their season any worse than 6-2, it’s a disaster.
The Jets, Dolphins, and Bills are good teams, but none of them are very good teams. They all get screwed annually by having to play New England twice every single year.
North
I always feel bad for the wild card team that always seems to come out of this division. You win 11+games and, not only do you not get a bye week, you have to go ON THE ROAD to play some crap team from the AFC west after they “earned” home field advantage. (What I’m saying is that Pittsburgh should not have had to go to Denver last year.)
I think Pittsburgh wins this division in a close race by either one game or in a tie-breaker with Baltimore. The season’s biggest game outside the division is Baltimore’s game against New England. Pittsburgh avoids having to play the Patriots this year and that might just be enough to get them the division title.
South
Texans.
West
Any of these teams has a legitimate shot to limp to a division title and playoff game (at home!). I think San Diego wins it this year thanks to a much, much easier schedule than division foe Denver, who is the most likely team to challenge for the division. Denver’s first 8 opponents all had at least 8 wins last year, and six of those 8 went to the playoffs. Good luck Peyton. Any of the four teams could realistically win this division, and there is a chance they could do it 2010 Seattle Seahawks style. The AFC West drew the AFC North and the NFC South this year on their schedule. So they’ll have to play Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Cincinnati, New Orleans and Atlanta: All 2011 playoff teams. At least they all get to console themselves with the statement “Hey, at least we get to play [Insert AFC West team] twice”. My dream is to see a team a 6-10 team make the playoffs and this year’s schedule and division of mediocrity are certainly keeping my hopes alive.
NFC
East
New York, Dallas, or Philadelphia has a real chance to win this division this year, but I think the Eagles get it done. I thought the Eagles were the best team in this division last year, and I think they’re the best team in the division again. It also helps that they have the easiest schedule of any of the teams that have a legitimate chance to win the division (Washington does not).
North
Green Bay wins the division by at least two games. The interesting question is who finishes second. I’m taking Detroit as runner-up and earning a wild card spot and 5th seed in the NFC.
South
I think New Orleans is going to win this division again, but Atlanta will make it close. I’ll pick Atlanta to get the second wild card because I have to pick someone. But there are at least 6 other teams that have a real shot at it (New York, Dallas, Chicago, Carolina, Seattle, Arizona).
West
San Francisco is too talented to not win this division again, but I think it’ll be a lot closer than a lot of people are making it out to be. I think the real question in this division is can two teams get to the playoffs. Two years ago, this division was been all-time bad (they sent a 7-9 team to the playoffs!), but it was much more competitive in 2011.
Seattle has 11 games in 2012 against teams that were 8-8 or worse in 2011. If they can manage a winning record in those 11 games and pick up a few quality wins they can make a nice little run at the wildcard, but their going to have to earn it. They aren’t getting into the playoffs this year thanks to an easy schedule. They play San Francisco in Seattle on December 23 and could prove to be a critical game for both teams.
Arizona also has a very difficult schedule. They play games at New England, at Green Bay, at Atlanta, and at San Francisco. I’d be surprised if they won any of these games, and I’d be stunned if they won 2 or more. Unfortunately, this tough schedule probably leaves them out of the playoffs.
2012 Pre-Season Rankings
| Team | Rank | Ex W | SOS | SB Odds | WSEX odds | 2011 Wins |
| Green Bay | 1 | 11.17 | 23 | 6.7-1 | 6-1 | 15 |
| New England | 2 | 10.68 | 32 | 7.7-1 | 7-1 | 13 |
| New Orleans | 3 | 10.47 | 24 | 9.1-1 | 15-1 | 13 |
| San Francisco | 4 | 10.18 | 10 | 9.4-1 | 13-1 | 13 |
| Baltimore | 5 | 9.73 | 7 | 11.5-1 | 17-1 | 12 |
| Pittsburgh | 6 | 9.85 | 22 | 15.3-1 | 15-1 | 12 |
| Detroit | 7 | 9.15 | 12 | 21-1 | 30-1 | 10 |
| Houston | 8 | 9.15 | 29 | 18-1 | 10-1 | 10 |
| Atlanta | 9 | 9.00 | 30 | 27-1 | 25-1 | 10 |
| Philadelphia | 10 | 8.56 | 11 | 30-1 | 12-1 | 8 |
| Cincinnati | 11 | 8.54 | 19 | 38-1 | 45-1 | 9 |
| New York (G) | 12 | 8.01 | 1 | 44-1 | 17-1 | 9 |
| Chicago | 13 | 8.31 | 13 | 42-1 | 23-1 | 8 |
| San Diego | 14 | 8.44 | 26 | 40-1 | 25-1 | 8 |
| New York (J) | 15 | 8.09 | 15 | 54-1 | 32-1 | 8 |
| Seattle | 16 | 7.91 | 5 | 87-1 | 65-1 | 7 |
| Tennessee | 17 | 8.06 | 18 | 54-1 | 90-1 | 9 |
| Dallas | 18 | 7.85 | 6 | 35-1 | 25-1 | 8 |
| Miami | 19 | 7.79 | 21 | 53-1 | 110-1 | 6 |
| Arizona | 20 | 7.33 | 2 | 103-1 | 80-1 | 8 |
| Denver | 21 | 7.25 | 4 | 115-1 | 20-1 | 8 |
| Oakland | 22 | 7.49 | 27 | 77-1 | 100-1 | 8 |
| Carolina | 23 | 7.35 | 20 | 115-1 | 45-1 | 6 |
| Buffalo | 24 | 7.24 | 28 | 142-1 | 65-1 | 6 |
| Kansas City | 25 | 7.01 | 31 | 146-1 | 50-1 | 7 |
| Washington | 26 | 6.52 | 17 | 350-1 | 70-1 | 5 |
| Jacksonville | 27 | 6.41 | 14 | 710-1 | 160-1 | 5 |
| Cleveland | 28 | 6.17 | 8 | 1000-1 | 200-1 | 4 |
| Minnesota | 29 | 6.20 | 9 | 4501-1 | 180-1 | 3 |
| Tampa Bay | 30 | 5.70 | 25 | 2500-1 | 100-1 | 4 |
| St. Louis | 31 | 5.17 | 3 | 2500-1 | 110-1 | 2 |
| Indianapolis | 32 | 5.22 | 16 | 1600-1 | 120-1 | 2 |
Ex W – Average number of wins a team would have if the season was played 100,000 times.
SOS (Strength of schedule) – The average of the strength coefficients for each opponent on a team’s schedule.
SB Odds – SITW estimated odds that the team wins the Super Bowl
WSEX Odds – http://www.wsex.com odds to win Super Bowl
Predicted Standings for 2012 Season
Team: Predicted Record (Prob Make Playoffs, Super Bowl Wins Odds)
AFC East
- New England Patriots: 11-5 (85.44%, 7.7-1)
- New York Jets: 8-8 (37.3%, 54-1)
- Miami Dolphins: 8-8 (34.84%, 53-1)
- Buffalo Bills: 7-9 (26.38%, 142-1)
AFC North
- Pittsburgh Steelers: 10-6 (65.96%, 15.3-1)
- Baltimore Ravens: 10-6 (68.52%, 11.5-1)
- Cincinnati Bengals: 9-7 (41.86%, 38-1)
- Cleveland Browns: 6-10 (7.1%, 1000-1)
AFC South
- Houston: 9-7 (68.54%, 18-1)
- Tennessee: 8-8 (33.04%, 54-1)
- Jacksonville: 6-10 (11.12%, 710-1)
- Indianapolis Colts: 5-11 (4.24%, 1600-1)
AFC West
- San Diego Chargers: 8-8 (40.48%, 40-1)
- Oakland Raiders: 7-9 (26.82%, 77-1)
- Denver Broncos: 7-9 (26.84%, 115-1)
- Kansas City Chiefs: 7-9 (21.52%, 146-1)
NFC East
- Philadelphia Eagles: 9-7 (49.38%, 30-1)
- New York Giants: 8-8 (41.42%, 44-1)
- Dallas Cowboys: 8-8 (41.4%, 35-1)
- Washington Redskins: 7-9 (13.54%, 350-1)
NFC North
- Green Bay: 11-5 (87.42%, 6.7-1)
- Detroit: 9-7 (52.74%, 21-1)
- Chicago: 8-8 (38.22%, 42-1)
- Minnesota: 6-10 (6.7%, 450-1)
NFC South
- New Orleans: 10-6 (75.2%, 9.1-1)
- Atlanta: 9-7 (50.36%, 27-1)
- Carolina: 7-9 (18.08%, 115-1)
- Tampa Bay: 6-10 (3.16%, 2500-1)
NFC West
- San Francisco: 10-6 (75.68%, 9.4-1)
- Seattle: 8-8 (24.26%, 87-1)
- Arizona: 7-9 (20.44%, 103-1)
- St. Louis: 5-11 (2%, 2500-1)
Predicted Playoffs for 2012 Season
AFC
- New England
- Pittsburgh
- Houston
- San Diego
- Baltimore
- Cincinnati
Houston and Baltimore advance out of the wild-card weekend. This creates a New England vs Baltimore match-up, once again demonstrating why it might be better to be the two seed, as Pittsburgh gets a weaker opponent in Houston. New England and Pittsburgh advance with New England representing the AFC in the Super Bowl.
NFC
- Green Bay
- New Orleans
- San Francisco
- Philadelphia
- Detroit
- Atlanta
San Francisco and Detroit advance to the divisional round of the playoffs where San Francisco would play New Orleans in a rematch of a very exciting playoff game from last year. Green Bay beats Detroit and advance to the NFC championship game where they play New Orleans. Green Bay then defeats New Orleans to go to the Super Bowl.
Super Bowl
Green Bay defeats New England in the Super Bowl.
Final NFL rankings – 2/9/2012
I was looking back at my NFL rankings over the past few months, and I found something interesting in my week 16 rankings. I actually had the NY Giants ranked higher than San Francisco.
Anyway, below are my final 2011-2012 NFL rankings.
Rankings updated as of 2/9/2012; Records updated as of 2/9/2012; CHFF rankings as of 12/28/2011
| Team | Rank | Change | Record | CHFF Rank |
| Green Bay | 1 | ↑ | 15-2 | 1 |
| New England | 2 | ↓ | 15-4 | 3 |
| Pittsburgh | 3 | – | 12-5 | 6 |
| Baltimore | 4 | – | 13-5 | 5 |
| New Orleans | 5 | ↑ | 14-4 | 2 |
| Atlanta | 6 | ↓ | 10-7 | 11 |
| NY Giants | 7 | ↑↑ | 13-7 | 10 |
| NY Jets | 8 | ↓ | 8-8 | 15 |
| Chicago | 9 | ↓ | 8-8 | 23 |
| San Francisco | 10 | – | 14-4 | 4 |
| Philadelphia | 11 | ↑ | 8-8 | 12 |
| San Diego | 12 | ↑ | 8-8 | 18 |
| Detroit | 13 | ↓↓ | 10-7 | 8 |
| Kansas City | 14 | ↑↑↑ | 7-9 | 26 |
| Oakland | 15 | ↓ | 8-8 | 14 |
| Tennessee | 16 | ↑↑↑↑↑↑ | 9-7 | 20 |
| Tampa Bay | 17 | ↓↓ | 4-12 | 31 |
| Houston | 18 | ↑ | 10-7 | 7 |
| Dallas | 19 | ↑↑ | 8-8 | 13 |
| Miami | 20 | ↓↓ | 6-10 | 22 |
| Seattle | 21 | ↓ | 7-9 | 19 |
| Denver | 22 | ↑↑ | 9-9 | 16 |
| Jacksonville | 23 | ↑↑↑↑↑↑ | 5-11 | 29 |
| Cincinnati | 24 | ↓↓↓↓↓↓↓↓ | 9-8 | 9 |
| Indianapolis | 25 | – | 2-14 | 30 |
| Arizona | 26 | ↑↑ | 8-8 | 21 |
| Buffalo | 27 | ↓↓↓↓ | 6-10 | 24 |
| Washington | 28 | ↑↑ | 5-11 | 25 |
| Minnesota | 29 | ↓↓↓ | 3-13 | 28 |
| St. Louis | 30 | ↑↑ | 2-14 | 32 |
| Cleveland | 31 | ↓↓↓↓ | 4-12 | 27 |
| Carolina | 32 | ↓ | 6-10 | 17 |
BCS: My offer still stands…….if you want to contact me you can send me a tweet @StatsInTheWild.
Cheers.
A rules question about Super Bowl squares
I just came across the article “A Statistician Shares How To Pick Your Super Bowl Pool Like A Champ” at businessinsider.com. The author of the article, Jill Krasny, asked edgehogs.com statistician, William Briggs, for some advice:
“You want to pick the scores that are most likely to happen, and look at historical information about how score differentials (i.e., pairings) are most realized,” Briggs said. “You shouldn’t pick squares out of the blue that happen infrequently.”
Then she offers this note:
Note: Some people pick the labels on the rows and columns only after all the boxes have been bought, making the game more random. If your office does it this way, and not all do, these statistics will still help you figure your chance of winning.
I would argue that a fundamental rule of the Super Bowl squares game is that you pick a square BEFORE the numbers have been placed on the grid. Instead of saying “Some people” in her note, she should say “Almost all people.” (Am I wrong about this? I’ve never, ever seen the numbers on the board before the squares are filled in.)
The article is still of some use, though, as you get some idea of what your chances of winning are after you get your numbers. Of course, the whole premise that the article was written on (you get to choose your numbers) is almost never true.
Finally, they looked at the last 2,822 NFL games, but if you’re interested in complete results for over 14,000 games in a pretty heat map grid format, I’ve compiled that here.
Go Pats.
Cheers.
A Tale of Two Bradys: It was the best of his games; it was the worst of his games
Here is an article I wrote for Significance Magazine about Tom Brady and the Super Bowl called “A Tale of Two Bradys: It was the best of his games; it was the worst of his games.”
Go Pats.
Cheers.
Super Bowl Squares
I received an email this morning from a friend: “Is there any sort of a statistical breakdown for which are the best numbers to have in a Super Bowl squares pool (for entertainment purposes only)?”
Now, if my friend were going to use this information to gamble, it would be highly unethical. However, since he clearly stated that it was for “entertainment purposes only,” I feel that I can conduct a study with a clear conscience.
If he had wanted to gamble on it, here is a quick explanation of how that usually takes place. (According to that website: “Basically, if you are at a party where you don’t have betting squares you are a Communist.”)
Anyway, using data from football-reference.com I created a ten by ten frequency table (using R, of course) of exactly how many times each outcome has occurred in the history of the NFL. You can find the graph here.
Somethings to note:
- 2-2 is the worst square by far. It’s only happened 5 times in the history of the league. The fair odds for this square are over 2800-to-1.
- The best squares are, no surprise, 7-0 and 0-7, occurring 581 and 577 times, respectively.
- The other great squares to have are in order, 0-3, 0-4, 4-7, and 7-4. All of these have occurred over 480 times each.
- These 6 outcomes (7-0, 0-7, 0-3, 0-4, 4-7, and 7-4) account for almost 23% of all the NFL games ever played.
Cheers.
NFL Conference Championship Games
I didn’t post picks form last weekend, but I would have chosen New England, Baltimore, New Orleans, and Green Bay for a record of 2-2 this past week.
-I’m going to quote myself and re-post this point (from here) because it seems very relevant:
“Last year there were 2 teams that averaged over 23 points on offense and under 18 points on defense. They were the Green Bay Packers and the Pittsburgh Steelers who ultimately met in the Super Bowl. This year there are three teams that meet this criteria: San Francisco 49ers, Baltimore Ravens, and Houston Texans. So, I guess I’m taking the 49ers over the Ravens in the Super Bowl.”
Of course, based on my rankings, right now, I’m picking San Francisco over New England in the Super Bowl.
-My super bowl picks based on my rankings at the beginning of the season was New England over Atlanta. And my pick based on my “gut” was Tampa Bay over Baltimore.
Record: 4-4
✓=Correct Pick; ✗=Incorrect Pick
| Round | Teams | Predicted Winner | Outcome | |
| Con | NYG at SF | San Francisco (55.1%) | ✗ |
|
| Con | Bal at NE | New England (52.1%) | ✓ |
|
| Div | NYG at GB | Green Bay (61.3%) | ✗ |
|
| Div | Hou at Bal | Baltimore (54.1%) | ✓ |
|
| Div | NO at SF | New Orleans (51.0%) | ✗ |
|
| Div | Den at NE | New England (56.8%) | ✓ |
|
| WC | Cin at Hou | Houston (51.3%) | ✓ |
|
| WC | Det at NO | New Orleans (57.9%) | ✓ | |
| WC | Atl at NYG | Atlanta (55.2%) | ✗ |
|
| WC | Pit at Den | Pittsburgh (65.6%) | ✗ |
Cheers.
Stats In the Wild Card Weekend – SITW’s picks
Games start in a few hours minutes, and I wanted to post my picks before the games started. So here they are.
Some Notes:
-My preseason pick for the Super Bowl base on numbers was New England over Atlanta. That’s not crazy at all right now. My Super Bowl pick based on my gut was Tampa Bay over Baltimore. Well, half of that makes sense.
-Last year there were 2 teams that averaged over 23 points on offense and under 18 points on defense. They were the Green Bay Packers and the Pittsburgh Steelers who ultimately met in the Super Bowl. This year there are three teams that meet this criteria: San Francisco 49ers, Baltimore Ravens, and Houston Texans. So, I guess I’m taking the 49ers over the Ravens in the Super Bowl.
Record: 2-2
✓=Correct Pick; ✗=Incorrect Pick
| Round | Teams | Predicted Winner | Outcome | |
| WC | Cin at Hou | Houston (51.3%) | ✓ |
|
| WC | Det at NO | New Orleans (57.9%) | ✓ | |
| WC | Atl at NYG | Atlanta (55.2%) | ✗ |
|
| WC | Pit at Den | Pittsburgh (65.6%) | ✗ |
Cheers.
NFL Rankings – After Week 17
Rankings updated as of 1/1/2012; Records updated as of 1/1/2012; CHFF rankings as of 12/28/2011
AFC NFC
Playoff team
Division Champ
Eliminated from Playoffs
| Team | Rank | Change | Record | CHFF Rank |
| New England | 1 | – | 13-3 | 3 |
| Pittsburgh | 2 | ↑ | 12-4 | 1 |
| Green Bay | 3 | ↓ | 15-1 | 6 |
| Baltimore | 4 | – | 12-4 | 5 |
| Atlanta | 5 | – | 10-6 | 11 |
| 6 | ↑ | 8-8 | 2 | |
| New Orleans | 7 | ↓ | 13-3 | 15 |
| 8 | – | 8-8 | 23 | |
| Detroit | 9 | ↑↑ | 10-6 | 10 |
| San Francisco | 10 | – | 13-3 | 4 |
| NY Giants | 11 | ↓↓ | 9-7 | 8 |
| 12 | – | 8-8 | 12 | |
| 13 | – | 8-8 | 18 | |
| 14 | ↑ | 4-12 | 14 | |
| 15 | ↑↑ | 7-9 | 30 | |
| 16 | ↑↑↑↑ | 7-9 | 9 | |
| 17 | ↓↓↓ | 8-8 | 26 | |
| Cincinnati | 18 | ↓↓ | 9-7 | 22 |
| 19 | ↑↑ | 8-8 | 7 | |
| 20 | ↑↑ | 9-7 | 19 | |
| 21 | ↓↓↓ | 6-10 | 13 | |
| Houston | 22 | ↓↓↓ | 10-6 | 20 |
| 23 | – | 6-10 | 24 | |
| 24 | ↑ | 2-14 | 16 | |
| Denver | 25 | ↓ | 8-8 | 30 |
| 26 | ↑↑↑↑ | 5-11 | 28 | |
| 27 | ↓ | 3-13 | 27 | |
| 28 | ↓ | 4-12 | 21 | |
| 29 | ↓ | 8-8 | 29 | |
| 30 | ↓ | 5-11 | 25 | |
| 31 | – | 6-10 | 17 | |
| 32 | – | 2-14 | 32 |
BCS: My offer still stands…….if you want to contact me you can send me a tweet @StatsInTheWild.
Cheers.
Stats in the Wild 
